The hydrochemical characteristics and evolution of groundwater and surface water in the Heihe River Basin, northwest China

A combination of isotopic and chemical indicators has been used to characterize rainfall, surface water and groundwater in the Heihe River Basin, China. Surface- vs. groundwater chemistry data enabled geographical zones and chemical types to be differentiated. The dissolution of halite, Glauber’s salt, gypsum, dolomite and calcite determine Na⁺, Cl^?, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, $ {\text{SO}}^{{2 - }}_{4} A combination of isotopic and chemical indicators has been used to characterize rainfall, surface water and groundwater in the Heihe River Basin, China. Surface- vs. groundwater chemistry data enabled geographical zones and chemical types to be differentiated. The dissolution of halite, Glauber’s salt, gypsum, dolomite and calcite determine Na⁺, Cl⁻, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, and chemistry, but other processes such as evaporation, ion exchange, and deposition also influence the water composition. The majority of deep confined groundwaters are tritium-free and less mineralized than in the shallow aquifer. Radiocarbon values in the deeper groundwaters range from 18.8 to 38.9 pmc, and 80 pmc probably represents the upper limit of initial ¹⁴C activity; this yields ages of approximately 5,960–11,971 years BP, which is about 3,000 years older than those calculated by models in previous work. The shallow aquifer exhibits fairly high and variable tritium activities (4–75 TU), evidence of recent recharge and low residence time (<60 years), which is in line with estimates from previous work. Isotopic signatures indicate formation of deeper groundwaters in a colder and wetter climate during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. The results suggested that significant changes are urgently needed in water-use strategy to achieve sustainable development.

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Résumé Une combinaison de plusieurs indicateurs isotopiques et chimiques a été utilisée dans le but de caractériser les précipitations, les eaux de surface et les eaux souterraines dans le Bassin de la Rivière Heihe, en Chine. La confrontation des chimies des eaux souterraines et de surface a permis de différentier plusieurs secteurs géographiques et faciès chimiques. Les compositions chimiques en Na⁺, Cl⁻, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, et sont déterminées par la dissolution de la halite, du sel de Glauber, du gypse, de la dolomite et de la calcite, mais d’autres processus peuvent également avoir une influence, comme l’évaporation, les échanges de bases et la sédimentation. La majorité des eaux souterraines captives profondes ne contiennent pas de tritium, et sont moins minéralisées que dans l’aquifère superficiel. Les valeurs de carbone 14 dans l’aquifère le plus profond sont comprises entre 18.8 et 38.9 pcm, pour une valeur maximum probable d’activité initiale de 80 pcm; les ages estimés correspondants sont compris entre 5,960 et 11,971 ans, soit environ 3,000 ans de plus que ceux calculés auparavant par les modèles. L’aquifère superficiel présente des activités tritium plut?t élevées et variables (4 à 75 UT), démontrant l’existence d’une alimentation récente et d’un temps de résidence faible (<60 ans), ce qui concorde avec les études antérieures. Les signatures isotopiques indiquent une alimentation des eaux souterraines les plus profondes au cours d’épisodes climatiques plus froids et plus humides qu’actuellement, à la fin du Pléistocène et à l’Holocène. Les résultats suggèrent que des changements significatifs dans la planification des usages de l’eau sont nécessaires et urgents dans des perspectives d’exploitation durable.

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Resumen Se ha utilizado una combinación de indicadores isotópicos y químicos para caracterizar la precipitación, el agua superficial y el agua subterránea en la Cuenca del Río Heihe, China. Los datos químicos de aguas superficiales frente a las subterráneas no permiten diferenciar zonas geográficas y tipos químicos. La disolución de halita, sal de Glauber, yeso, dolomita y calcita determina la química de Na⁺, Cl⁻, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, y , pero otros procesos, como evaporación, intercambio de iones y precipitación influyen también en la composición del agua. La mayoría de las aguas subterráneas profundas confinadas no tienen Tritio y están menos mineralizados que el acuífero superficial. Los valores de radiocarbono en las aguas subterráneas más profundas oscilan entre 18.8 y 38.9 pmc, y el valor de 80 pmc representa probablemente el límite superior de la actividad inicial de ¹⁴C; proporcionando edades de aproximadamente 5,960–11,971 a?os BP, que son unos 3,000 a?os más antiguas de las calculadas mediante modelización en trabajos previos. El acuífero superficial tiene actividades de tritio bastante más altas y variables (4–75 UT), evidenciando una recarga reciente y unos tiempos de residencia bajos (<60 a?os), lo cual está en la línea de lo estimado en trabajos previos. Los datos isotópicos apuntan a la formación de aguas subterráneas más profundas en un clima más frío y húmedo durante el Pleistoceno superior y el Holoceno. Los resultados sugieren que se necesita hacer cambios significativos en la estrategia de uso del agua para alcanzar un desarrollo sostenible.

     

基于不确定性分析框架的动态环状河网水质模型--以温州市温瑞塘河为例

以温州市温瑞塘河为背景,基于不确定性分析的框架,开发了动态环状河网水质模型。用HSY(Hornberger,Spear and Young)算法作水质参数的不确定性分析,求得模型参数的空间分布,从而提高模型使用的可靠性、降低决策的风险度。模型由水量子模型及水质子模型两部分组成:水量子模型采用圣维南方程并用四级解法求解;水质子模型采用CSTR(Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor)模型的机理,并结合环状河网特征作了修正,由于只需解常微分方程,因而避免了矩阵求解,显著提高了计算效率,使得用HSY算法进行不确定性分析成为可能。模型选取温州市温瑞塘河流域的鹿城区河网进行了首次应用,用HSY算法率定水质参数并讨论了参数的不确定性。对参数率定结果进行验证,结果比较理想。最后简要讨论了参数不确定性传递。     

Phenomena and characteristics of barrier river reaches in the middle and lower Yangtze River,China

Alluvial river self-adjustment describes the mechanism whereby a river that was originally in an equilibrium state of sediment transport encounters some disturbance that destroys the balance and results in responses such as riverbed deformation. A systematic study of historical and recent aerial photographs and topographic maps in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) shows that river self-adjustment has the distinguishing feature of transferring from upstream to downstream, which may affect flood safety, waterway morphology, bank stability, and aquatic environmental safety over relatively long reaches downstream. As a result, it is necessary to take measures to control or block this transfer. Using the relationship of the occurrence time of channel adjustments between the upstream and downstream, 34 single-thread river reaches in the MLYR were classified into four types: corresponding, basically corresponding, basically not corresponding, not corresponding. The latter two types, because of their ability to prevent upstream channel adjustment from transferring downstream, are called barrier river reaches in this study. Statistics indicate that barrier river reaches are generally single thread and slightly curved, with a narrow and deep cross-sectional morphology, and without flow deflecting nodes in the upper and middle parts of reaches. Moreover, in the MLYR, barrier river reaches have a hydrogeometric coefficient of \({<}{4}\), a gradient \({>}\)1.2?, a silty clay content of the concave bank \({>}{9.5}\)%, and a median diameter of the bed sediment \({>}{0.158}\) mm. The barrier river reach mechanism lies in that can effectively centralise the planimetric position of the main stream from different upstream directions, meaning that no matter how the upper channel adjusts, the main stream shows little change, providing relatively stable inflow conditions for the lower reaches. Regarding river regulation, it is necessary to optimise the benefits of barrier river reaches; long river reaches without barrier properties should be systematically planned and regulated; drastic bank collapse and sandbar shrinking should be urgently controlled to prevent the loss of barrier effects.     

Research on eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation of the Anning River Basin in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River

The Anning River Basin is located in the transitional zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau and Sichuan Basin. This transitional zone is an important ecological barrier of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and plays a significant role in the ecological security and ecological construction of Sichuan Province. However, the innate vulnerability of the eco-environment combined with the unreasonable development and use of minerals, hydropower, agriculture and animal husbandry resources contribute to prominent eco-environmental problems. In support of remote sensing and geographical information system, this study uses the spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) method to build the evaluation model for the vulnerability evaluation and analysis of the eco-environment in the Anning River Basin. The following indicators are selected for the SPCA: elevation, slope, vegetation index, land use, soil type, soil erosion, precipitation, temperature, and population density. Thereafter, the first four principal components are selected and their corresponding weights are determined. The eco-environmental vulnerability comprehensive index of the Anning River Basin is calculated by using these data. According to the calculated results, the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Anning River Basin is divided into five levels, namely, potential vulnerability, slight vulnerability, light vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, and high vulnerability. Eco-environmental changes for the past 20 years (from 1990 to 2010) are discussed and analyzed as well as the driving forces. The analysis shows that the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Anning River Basin is at the moderate level, and exhibits obvious vertical distribution characteristics. The main reasons that cause eco-environmental changes are mainly human factors, socioeconomic factors, and environmental protection policies like “Natural Forests Protection” and “Grain-for-Green”. Based on the vulnerability classification results, the Anning River Basin is divided into three partitions for different degrees of eco-environmental reconstruction and protection, which provides foundation for the local eco-environmental reconstruction so as to reconstruct in order of the importance and urgency.     

Spatial variations and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface sediments on the upper reaches of Hun River, Northeast China

The distribution, accumulation, and ecological risk of heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cr, and As) in the surface sediment were investigated in the upper reaches of Hunhe River, Northeast China. Sediment samples from 51 points throughout the upper reaches of Hunhe River were collected and measured for heavy metal concentrations, TN content, and TP content. Results showed that heavy metal concentrations at the vicinity of mines and towns were higher than those at other locations. According to sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), Cd and Zn were enriched in the sediments. The correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were conducted to assess the heavy metal sources. Close correlations between metal distribution and TP indicated that the sediments may be affected by application of phosphate fertilizer. Elements, Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, and As, were grouped together, reflecting they were released from the same sources. PCA suggested that their primary sources were anthropogenic, namely mining and extensive use of fertilizers. Therefore, heavy metal pollution due to mining and agricultural intensification in the upper Hunhe River basin should be taken into account during the formation of regional management strategies for the water environment.     

金沙江上游沃达滑坡发育特征与堵江危险性分析

金沙江上游沃达滑坡自1985年开始出现变形,现今地表宏观变形迹象明显,存在进一步失稳滑动和堵江的风险。采用遥感解译、地面调查、工程地质钻探和综合监测等方法,分析了沃达滑坡空间结构和复活变形特征,阐明了滑坡潜在复活失稳模式,并采用经验公式计算分析了滑坡堵江危险性。结果表明:沃达滑坡为一特大型滑坡,体积约28.81×106 m3,推测其在晚更新世之前发生过大规模滑动;滑坡堆积体目前整体处于蠕滑变形阶段,局部处于加速变形阶段;复活变形范围主要集中在中前部,且呈现向后渐进变形破坏特征,复活区右侧变形比左侧强烈。滑坡存在浅层和深层两级滑面,平均埋深分别约15.0,25.5 m,相应地可能出现两种潜在失稳模式:滑坡强变形区沿浅层滑带滑动失稳时,形成的堵江堰塞坝高度约87.2 m;滑坡整体沿深层滑带滑动失稳时,形成的堵江堰塞坝高度约129.2 m。沃达滑坡存在形成滑坡-堵江-溃决-洪水链式灾害的危险性,建议进一步加强滑坡监测,针对性开展排水、加固等防治工程。     

Major ion chemistry,weathering processes and water quality assessment in upper catchment of Damodar River basin,India

The chemical characteristics of surface, groundwater and mine water of the upper catchment of the Damodar River basin were studied to evaluate the major ion chemistry, geochemical processes controlling water composition and suitability of water for domestic, industrial and irrigation uses. Water samples from ponds, lakes, rivers, reservoirs and groundwater were collected and analysed for pH, EC, TDS, F, Cl, HCO₃, SO₄, NO_3, Ca, Mg, Na and K. In general, Ca, Na, Mg, HCO₃ and Cl dominate, except in samples from mining areas which have higher concentration of SO₄. Water chemistry of the area reflects continental weathering, aided by mining and other anthropogenic impacts. Limiting groundwater use for domestic purposes are contents of TDS, F, Cl, SO₄, NO₃ and TH that exceed the desirable limits in water collected from mining and urban areas. The calculated values of SAR, RSC and %Na indicate good to permissible use of water for irrigation. High salinity, %Na, Mg-hazard and RSC values at some sites limit use for agricultural purposes.     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

都柳江上游沿岸喀斯特地区土壤重金属污染特征及风险评价

采集都柳江上游沿岸喀斯特地区62个土壤样品,利用地累积指数法、潜在生态风险指数法、克里金插值方法综合研究Sb、Cd、As、Cr和Pb五种重金属元素累积污染特征和潜在生态风险。结果表明,研究区土壤中Sb和Cd元素平均含量分别超过贵州省土壤环境背景值4.085倍和1.876倍。空间分布上,Sb元素严重污染面积占研究区总面积37.87%,主要受区内赋矿层位望城坡组、尧梭组和鸡窝寨组的影响。而Cd元素轻度累积污染面积为59.76%,其与碳酸盐岩分布密切相关。研究区土壤重金属污染潜在生态风险属于低风险等级,但是Cd和Sb元素单项污染潜在生态风险概率较大,Cd污染最高概率风险地层主要是石牛栏组和邦寨组,而Sb污染最高概率风险地层为邦寨组、鸡窝寨组和独山组。因此,研究区应重点防控石牛栏组、邦寨组、鸡窝寨组和独山组土壤Cd与Sb污染的潜在生态风险。      

淮河中游水量水质联合调度模型研究

针对淮河中游的特点,建立了一个能适应水系密布、河网交错、水库闸坝众多、相互制约等复杂水流条件和防污调度要求的一、二维水量水质耦合的非恒定流模型。采用1999年和2004年淮河中游的联防调度实测资料对模型进行率定和检验的结果表明,所建模型能够准确客观地描述淮河中游洪水、污染物的运动规律,预测和评价各种调度方案的改善水质效果。     

1990年以来天山乌鲁木齐河上游水资源研究进展

乌鲁木齐河是我国西北地区典型的降水、冰川和地下水综合补给的内陆河,对其水资源的研究不仅是西北寒区旱区水环境和水资源研究的热点,而且对区域生态环境改善和经济可持续发展具有重要意义。乌鲁木齐河水文水资源的研究内容十分广泛,并取得了很多高水平的学术成果。从高山区气候变化与冰冻圈的相互影响,山区降水变化与径流的相互影响,出山口径流对气候变化的响应以及洪灾、致灾因子分析,流域内同位素、树轮气候和水环境研究等四个方面总结了相关研究。结果表明：（1）乌鲁木齐河上游气候趋于暖湿。气温的升高很大程度上受冬季气温大幅度升高影响,气温对高山区冰川积雪的影响要大于降水;冬季负积温也加快了冻土的消融;气温和降水的变化导致乌鲁木齐河上游河段冰川后退加速,积雪融化、雪线上升,冻土活动层增厚。（2）乌鲁木齐河流域降水量和降水变化速率具有明显的垂直特征,在中高山地区降水量和降水变率较大;山区降水还具有年代际特征,20世纪90年代以来,山区降水量呈现增加趋势并促进了山区径流量的增加。（3）降水量和冰川融雪量的增加,很大程度上加大了乌鲁木齐河流域山区的径流量,使得出山口区域洪水灾害的发生频率增加。（4）同位素分析的运用对探索径流形成和转化的机理具有重要意义。树轮研究为乌鲁木齐河流域气候变化序列的重建提供了技术手段。今后,乌鲁木齐河水资源承载力、水循环过程和水污染问题,是区域实现生态环境建设和可持续发展的重要研究内容。     

Temporal transport of major and trace elements in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River,SW China

This study investigated the temporal variations of major and trace element contents and controlling factors in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River, SW China. The results showed the major ions principally derived from the weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks, with a seasonal variation impacted by the monsoonal climate. The contents of dissolved trace elements also varied seasonally in the two main tributaries: the Nanpan and Beipan rivers. Most dissolved trace elements such as Mn, Zn and Pb being affected by anthropogenic contributions displayed a large seasonal variability, from onefold to hundred-fold, while V, Rb and U show a relative stable trend uncorrelated with the different seasons, suggesting a natural origin by rock weathering. Suspended particle matter in the Nanpan and Beipan rivers was depleted in Ca, Mg, Na, K and Sr, but enriched in Al, Fe and Sb compared to the upper crust (UC) values. A binary mixture of silicate-rich and carbonate-rich sources dominates the behavior of elements such as Ca and Sr in riverine sediments, while a third end-member with an anthropogenic signature influenced the content of trace elements like Mn, Sb, Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr and Cu. The enrichments of Sb relative to the UC would be related to the mining activity in the studied area. The study highlights the importance of investigating temporal variations of major and trace element contents of rivers controlled by the monsoon climate and impacted by human activity.     

黑河上游降水同位素特征及其水汽来源分析

为了加深对黑河上游水循环过程的理解, 以研究区5个站点2015年8月至2016年8月的降水同位素实测数据和气象数据为基础, 除对降水同位素特征进行分析外, 主要利用TrajStat软件中的后向轨迹计算模块与潜在源贡献因子分析（PSCF）方法, 对研究区降水的水汽来源进行了分析, 并结合水汽通量等方法进行了补充分析。结果表明： 降水同位素呈夏高冬低趋势, 大气水线斜率（8.02）和截距（11.02）均高于全球大气水线的斜率（8.00）和截距（10.00）, 存在温度效应（δ¹⁸O=0.43x-10.82, r=0.54, P<0.0001）, 不存在降水量效应（δ¹⁸O=-0.05x-7.81, r=0.03, P<0.0001）; 研究区降水受多种水汽影响, 西风水汽影响最大。夏季除受西风水汽影响外, 还受东南季风水汽影响显著且水汽来源复杂; 研究区夏季的潜在蒸发源地集中在一些相对湿度和蒸发量较大的地区, 如祁连山区、 河西地区、 柴达木盆地北部、 青藏高原东南部及酒泉地区西南部等; 当降水量小、 温度高时, 持续性降水的大气水线方程的斜率和截距较小, 暴雨稳定同位素值较贫化, 受东南季风水汽影响最大, 其次是北方和西风水汽, 多种水汽辐合是暴雨事件发生的必要条件。     

Multivariate water quality assessment from the Tamiraparani river basin,Southern India

The hydrochemistry of a perennial river has been investigated with multivariate cluster analysis (CA) and principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA). The aim was to investigate parameters responsible for spatial and temporal variations of river water quality. Water quality was monitored along the river basin at 20 different sites over a period of 1 year from July, 2008 to June, 2009. Multivariate statistics revealed that Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, HCO₃ ^?, Cl^?, H₄SiO₄, SO₄ ^2?, NO₂ ^?, and PO₄ ^3? were influenced by seasonal and spatial variations and that water quality was in the first place determined more by natural weathering processes than by anthropogenic activities. We could prove by (a) Box and Whisker plot, (b) matrix scatter score mean plot, (c) ternary plot, and (d) Gibbs plot that the chemistry of river water is controlled by lithogenic weathering processes. The higher concentration of dissolved silica during summer and the pre-monsoon season is explained by natural and tropical climatic conditions of the environment.     

新安江流域上游地区地下水化学特征及水文地球化学作用研究

新安江流域上游地区地下水水化学成分复杂,水与含水介质间发生的各种溶解、沉淀、吸附等水-岩相互作用在地下水复杂成分形成和演化过程中发挥重要功能。文章采用数理统计、主成分分析和聚类分析、Gibbs模型、硅酸平衡、主要离子比例系数等方法,研究了新安江流域上游地区地下水水化学特征和水文地球化学作用,分析了水化学组分来源。结果表明:研究区地下水阳离子以Ca2+、Na+为主,阴离子以HCO-3为主,还存在少量Cl-、SO2-4,地下水主要水化学类型为HCO3-Ca型、HCO3-Na·Ca型、HCO3-Ca·Mg型;地下水水化学组分主要来自碳酸盐矿物和硅酸盐矿物的风化溶解,其次来源于蒸发岩的风化溶解。地下水的溶滤作用、阳离子交替吸附作用以及人类生产生活等活动共同影响地下水水化学特征。     

Hydrogeologic and hydrochemical framework of the shallow groundwater system in the southern Voltaian Sedimentary Basin, Ghana

 The southern Voltaian Sedimentary Basin underlies an area of about 5000 km² in east-central Ghana. Groundwater in the basin occurs in fractures in highly consolidated siliciclastic aquifers overlain by a thin unsaturated zone. Aquifer parameters were evaluated from available aquifer-test data on 28 shallow wells in the basin. Hydraulic-conductivity values range from 0.04–3.6 m/d and are about two orders of magnitude greater than the hydraulic conductivity calculated using Darcy's Law and the average groundwater velocity estimated from carbon-14 dating. Linear-regression analysis of the transmissivity and specific-capacity data allowed the establishment of an empirical relationship between log transmissivity and log specific capacity for the underlying aquifers. Groundwater chemistry in the basin is controlled by the weathering of albitic plagioclase feldspar. The weathering rates of various minerals were estimated using ¹⁴C-derived average velocity in the basin. The weathering rate of albite was calculated to be 2.16 μmol L^–1 yr^–1 with the resulting formation of 3.3 μmol L^–1 yr^–1 of kaolinite and 0.047 μmol L^–1 yr^–1 of calcite. The low porosity and permeability of the aquifers in the basin are attributed to the precipitation of secondary minerals on fracture surfaces and interlayer pore spaces. Received, September 1997 Revised, July 1998, August 1998 Accepted, August 1998     

Petroleum pollution and evolution of water quality in the Malian River Basin of the Longdong Loess Plateau,Northwestern China

The possible sources of water pollution and the evolution of water quality in the Malian River Basin of China’s Longdong Loess Plateau were studied based on chemical analysis. Concentrations of major chemicals in the river were related to the distance downstream from the source of the river and the surface water in the upstream had good quality, while the river from Southern Huanxian County to Qingcheng County was seriously polluted. Groundwater quality was generally good in the phreatic aquifer beneath the loess plateau, with bicarbonate and calcium dominant, but salinity was high and petroleum pollution was present in many parts of the study area. Both surface water and groundwater quality have declined rapidly during the past 20 years, leading to much of the water unsafe to drink and unsuitable for use in irrigation. The substances released into the water included industrial wastes, domestic sewage, organic and inorganic fertilizers, and pesticides, as well as a range of other substances that are harmful to humans. However, petroleum contamination caused by the oil industry in the Longdong oilfield is the largest source of pollution that infiltrates surface water and groundwater, leading to deterioration of water quality. It is recommended that oilfield management must be improved and the petroleum products and wastes must be disposed carefully to reduce the risk of further spills and pollution.     

青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应

基于1959-2013年径流量及气象数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、R/S分析、累积量斜率变化率等方法,分析了青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流的年际变化、年内分配、变化趋势及其周期性,定量评估了降水变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明：巴音河上游径流量以0.2×10⁸ m³·（10a）^-1倾向率呈显著上升趋势,Hurst指数为0.78,存在20 a左右的丰平枯变化周期,21世纪流域进入丰水期;径流量变化以21～22 a的年代际变化周期最为显著,同时存在10～11 a的年际变化主周期;径流量年内分配不均匀,集中于夏秋两季,径流量呈现先增后减的单波峰分布特点,进入21世纪,年内最大月径流量呈现向后推迟的趋势,年内分配趋于集中;径流突变发生在2001年,降水对巴音河上游径流量增加的贡献率为83.06%,人类活动的贡献率为16.94%。因此,气候是影响巴音河上游河流径流变化的主要因素,人类活动的影响次之。研究结果对巴音河流域未来水资源开发利用和生态环境保护有一定的指导和借鉴意义。