On the global mean temperature of the thermosphere

The solar extreme ultraviolet (e.u.v.) flux and solar ultraviolet (u.v.) flux in the Schumann-Runge continuum region have been measured by spectrometers on board the Atmosphere Explorer satellites from about 1974 to 1981. The solar flux spectra measured on 23 April 1974 (a day the Atmosphere Explorer satellite reference spectrum was obtained), 13–28 July 1976 (a period of spotless conditions near solar cycle minimum), and 19 February 1979 (a day near solar cycle maximum) are used to examine the global mean temperature structure of the thermosphere above 120 km. The results show that for solar cycle minimum the calculated global mean exospheric temperature is in agreement with empirical model predictions, indicating that the energy absorbed by the thermosphere is balanced by downward molecular thermal conduction. For solar cycle maximum the energy absorbed by the thermosphere is not balanced by downward thermal conduction but agreement between the calculated and observed temperature is obtained with the inclusion of 5.3μm radiational cooling by nitric oxide. Model calculations of the minor neutral constituents in the thermosphere show that about three times more nitric oxide is produced during solar cycle maximum than solar cycle minimum conditions. The results suggest that nitric oxide cooling is small during solar cycle minimum, because of low nitric oxide densities and low thermospheric temperatures, but it becomes significantly larger during solar cycle maximum, when nitric oxide densities and thermospheric temperatures are larger.23 April 1974 was a moderately disturbed day and the results of the global mean temperature calculation indicate that it is necessary to consider a high latitude heat source associated with the geomagnetic activity to obtain agreement between the calculated and observed global mean temperature structure.     

The response of ozone to solar activity variations: A review

Observational evidence and theoretical predictions of the response of ozone to solar variations are reviewed. Short-term solar proton effects, possible effects of galactic cosmic rays modulated by the Sun, and the effects of 27-day solar rotation and 11-year solar cycle variations are discussed. Solar proton effects on HO _x chemistry in the mesosphere and NO _x chemistry in the stratosphere with resulting catalytic destruction of O₃ help validate present day photochemical models. If there is an 11-year solar cycle variation in global ozone, the large dynamical effects at individual locations and the lack of good global coverage of ground based and in situ measurements can disguise it. Recently, with the global coverage of satellites, it has become possible to accurately determine global mean ozone. It has been found that variations in global mean ozone filtered for seasonal variations are highly correlated with variations of the 10.7 cm solar activity index and that global mean ozone responds rapidly to solar activity index variations. Photochemical models indicate that the observed 3% variations in global mean ozone over the solar cycle can be accounted for by solar UV variations which are not inconsistent with recent solar measurements.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

Ozone and temperature fluctuations in the strato-mesosphere with solar activity

The response of the stratosphere and lower mesosphere to quasi-eleven-year solar activity cycle (indicated by sunspot variations) is studied by using temperature data obtained from rockets which are mostly based on datasonde system throughout the decade 1969–1978. It is suggested that the solar trace is evident at wintertime in the strato-mesosphere over low and middle latitudes. At summertime in the lower mesosphere over high latitudes the solar trace is absent. During springtime the solar signal appears over low latitudes and diminishes to the middle and high latitudes. The reverse occurs at falltime. The observed stratospheric temperature and ozone variations during the solar activity cycle are possibly within model calculations of UV and solar particle enhancements at solar maximum.     

A statistical study of the interdependence of solar wind parameters

Correlation analysis of solar wind parameters, namely solar wind velocity, pro- ton density, proton temperature and mean interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from the ACE spacecraft data near Earth, was done. To our best knowledge, this study is a novel one since we consider here only the parameters inside the solar wind, including the mean IMF and, hence, the solar wind is a self consistent system. We have proposed a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for the prediction of the response variable (solar wind velocity) using the parameters proton density, proton temperature and mean IMF mea- sured as dally averages. About 60% of the observed value can be predicted using this model. It is shown that, in general, the correlation between solar wind parameters is sig- nificant. A deviation from the prediction at the solar maximum is interpreted. These results are verified by a graphical method.     

Direct and Indirect Thermospheric Heating Sources for Solar Cycles 21–23

Solar variability is often cast in terms of radiative emission and the associated long-term climate response; however, growing societal reliance on technology is creating more interest in day-to-day solar variability. This variability is associated with both solar radiative and solar wind emissions. In this paper we explore the combined effects of radiative and solar wind fluctuations at Earth. The fluctuations in radiative and geomagnetic power create an extended interval of solar maximum for the upper atmosphere. We use a trio of empirical models to estimate, over the last three solar cycles, the relative contributions of solar extreme ultraviolet (UV) power, Joule power, and particle kinetic power to the Earth’s upper atmosphere energy budget. Daily power values are derived from three source models. The SOLAR2000 solar irradiance specification model provides estimates of the daily extreme and far UV solar power input. Geomagnetic power is derived from a combination of satellite-estimated particle precipitation power and an empirical model of Joule power from hemispherically integrated estimates of high-latitude energy deposition. During the interval 1975 to 2003, the average daily contributions were: particles – 36 GW, Joule – 95 GW and solar – 464 GW for a total of 595 GW. Solar wind-driven geomagnetic power provided 22% of the total global upper atmospheric energy. In the top 15 power events, geomagnetic power contributed two-thirds of the total power budget. In each of these events, Joule power alone exceeded solar power. With rising activity, Joule power becomes the most variable element of solar upper atmosphere interactions.     

The effects of reduced land fraction and solar forcing on the general circulation: results from the NCAR CCM

Land fraction and the solar energy at the top of the atmosphere (solar constant) may have been significantly lower early in Earth's history. It is likely that both of these factors played some important role in the climate of the early earth. The climate changes associated with a global ocean(i.e. no continents) and reduced solar constant are examined with a general circulation model and compared with the present-day climate simulation. The general circulation model used in the study is the NCAR CCM with a swamp ocean surface. First, all land points are removed in the model and then the solar constant is reduced by 10% for this global ocean case.Results indicate that a 4 K increase in air temperature occurs with global ocean simulation compared to the control. When solar constant is reduced by 10% under global ocean conditions a 23 K decrease in air temperature is noted. The global ocean warms much of the troposphere and stratosphere, while a reduction in the solar constant cools the troposphere and stratosphere. The largest cooling occurs near the surface with the lower solar constant.Global mean values of evaporation, water vapor amounts, absorbed solar radiation and the downward longwave radiation are increased under global ocean conditions, while all are reduced when the solar constant is lowered. The global ocean simulation produces sea ice only in the highest latitudes. A frozen planet does not occur when the solar constant is reduced—rather, the ice line settles near 30° of latitude. It is near this latitude that transient eddies transport large amounts of sensible heat across the ice line acting as a negative feedback under lower solar constant conditions keeping sea ice from migrating to even lower latitudes.Clouds, under lower solar forcing, also act as a negative feedback because they are reduced in higher latitudes with colder atmospheric temperatures allowing additional solar radiation to reach the surface. The overall effect of clouds in the global ocean is to act as a positive feedback because they are slightly reduced thereby allowing additional solar radiation to reach the surface and increase the warming caused by the removal of land. The relevance of the results to the “Faint-Young Sun Paradox” indicates that reduced land fraction and solar forcing affect dynamics, heat transport, and clouds. Therefore the associated feedbacks should be taken into account in order to understand their roles in resolving the “Faint-Young Sun Paradox”.     

A mechanism for solar ultraviolet flux variability

Solar UV emission observed by a filter photometer on Nimbus IV from 1969 to 1973 is examined in an attempt to understand the short term (27 day) and secular variability. Two models are discussed to explain the variations - a calcium plage model and a chromospheric network (faculae and spicule) structure model. Both relate to the remnant magnetic fields of active regions. An association between UV brightenings and the large scale magnetic field has been found consistent with the network model. An increase in UV emittance can be achieved by raising the effective chromospheric temperature closer to a photospheric level. If the Sun's luminosity is constant on these time intervals, the enhanced UV radiation could be partiallly offset by an overall decrease in photospheric temperature as measured by Livingston in visible photospheric profiles. Total solar luminosity may then show less variability, however, the UV to visible luminosity variation may have significant planetary influences. Lockwood and Thompson (1979) report a relation between solar activity and planetary albedos, and Schatten (1979) discussed a long-suspected relationship between solar activity and the Great Red Spot appearance.     

Response of a global climate model to a thirty percent reduction of the solar constant

An investigation is made of the “white earth” scenario, wherein the positive feedback mechanism, involving temperature, snow/ice cover,and albedo, renders the earth's surface covered with permanent snow freezes the oceans when the solar input is sufficiently low. A three-dimensional energy budget climate model is used to stimulate the earth's response to a 30% decrease in the solar constant. The decrease occurs over a period of 90 years. The model simulates an additional 100 years to allow conditions to stabilize. At the end of the model run, the planetary mean surface temperature is 204.8°K, the oceans are completely frozen over, and the maximum seasonal mean temperature any grid point of the planet is 251.6°K in the western Gobi Desert in JJA. The highest average annual temperature is 238.7°K in western Zaire. A significant portion of the planet's land surface is free of permanent snow cover. The result of this model run suggest that the hydrologic balance may provide a significant negative feedback mechanism to counter the snow/ice-albedo positive feedback mechanism and that the earth's climate may be less sensitive to variations in the solar constant than previously believed.     

A Century of Solar Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Measurements and Their Implication for Solar UV Driving of Climate

Spectroheliograms and disk-integrated flux monitoring in the strong resonance line of Ca ii (K line) provide the longest record of chromospheric magnetic plages. We compare recent reductions of the Ca ii K spectroheliograms obtained since 1907 at the Kodaikanal, Mt. Wilson, and US National Solar Observatories. Certain differences between the individual plage indices appear to be caused mainly by differences in the spectral passbands used. Our main finding is that the indices show remarkably consistent behavior on the multidecadal time scales of greatest interest to global warming studies. The reconstruction of solar ultraviolet flux variation from these indices differs significantly from the 20th-century global temperature record. This difference is consistent with other findings that, although solar UV irradiance variation may affect climate through influence on precipitation and storm tracks, its significance in global temperature remains elusive.     

A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO_x at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO_x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO_x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO_x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.     

Maximum and minimum temperatures at armagh observatory, 1844–1992, and the length of the sunspot cycle

The question of whether or not the Earth's climate is influenced by solar activity has received considerable attention since the mid-nineteenth century. Most investigations have adopted the sunspot number as the parameter of solar activity. Recently, however, it has been shown by Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) that the mean northern hemisphere temperature, from 1861–1990, follows a strikingly similar trend to thelength of the sunspot cycle, suggesting that the recent global warming could, at least in part, arise from changes in solar activity. In view of the importance of this result, we have examined a set of continuous meteorological records, maintained at Armagh Observatory since 1844, to assess, first, whether data from a single site can give meaningful information on global trends, and second, whether the data from this particular site for the period 1844–1866 can be used to extend the baseline of the comparison with solar activity. We find that both are indeed the case and that there is a strong correlation between the solar cycle length and the mean temperature at Armagh over the past 149 years.     

A dynamical mechanism through which variations in solar ultraviolet radiation can influence tropospheric climate

Variations in solar UV radiation can lead to changes in the mean temperature and wind distributions in the stratosphere and, through modification of the ozone photochemistry, to changes in the damping rate of temperature perturbations about the mean. Such changes can influence the stratospheric propagation characteristics of planetary waves generated in the troposphere, leading to changes in the steady state interference pattern of these waves at all levels. In particular, the poleward heat transfer by the planetary waves in the troposphere can be strongly modified, thus providing a mechanism whereby solar cycle variations in ultraviolet radiation can influence climate.The dynamics of the mechanism are presented in a simple form and the literature on the subject is reviewed.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

Some features of climate change on Earth and its possible relation to solar-activity variations

The global warming on Earth during the last century has been discussed in many studies. The most significant factors of climate change are the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, catastrophic eruptions of volcanoes, and variations in the solar activity. In this paper, we consider the character of climate change and its possible relation to solar-activity variations using the data of the global network of meteorological stations on temperature variations in different regions across the globe from 1880 and information about variations in the relative sunspot number over the last 300 years and temporal variations in the total solar irradiation. We found that the annual mean sunspot number increased on average by about 0.2% per year in both 11-year and secular cycles. The increase in the globally averaged surface air temperature in the period 1880–2004 was Δt = 0.61 ± 0.04 °C. The difference in Δt calculated for periods with different solar-activity levels in 11-year cycles was estimated. This difference was most clearly revealed over land at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The medians of the distributions of the annual mean surface air temperature over land, ocean, and over the entire globe in years with high solar activity in the secular cycle are significantly greater than the corresponding values related to the years of low solar activity. Noticeable falls in temperature (by ～0.1–0.2°C) through ～1900–1920 and 1945–1980 are likely to be associated with the radiation balance perturbation caused by a large number of catastrophic volcanic eruptions during these periods. A considerable warming during the last three decades is most probably due to the substantial growth in the rate of carbon dioxide input to the atmosphere and the corresponding large increase in its concentration. The importance of this factor of global warming becomes even greater if we bear in mind that the solar activity in the secular cycle declines after 1970.     

Evidence of Solar Variation in Tree-Ring-Based Climate Reconstructions

Analyses of the summer temperature anomalies in northern Fennoscandia for A.D. –1991 and mean annual temperature in the northern hemisphere for A.D. 1000–1990 (both reconstructed by means of dendrochronological methods) are performed using Fourier and wavelet approaches. It is revealed that the century-type (65–140 yr) periodicity is present in both series during most of the full time range. A comparison of the northern Fennoscandian temperature record with a variety of indicators of solar activity (direct measurements and proxies) shows that this century-scale periodicity most probably was forced by a centennial cycle of solar activity (Gleissberg cycle). Despite the fact that the connection between the centennial variation of global northern hemispheric temperature and that of the Sun's activity is weaker, a link between the two can also not be excluded. The results obtained give us new evidence of the reality of the solar–climate link over a record long-time scale (at least during the last millennium). Variable length of the century-long temperature periodicity may reflect the corresponding changes in the length of the Gleissberg solar cycle. The effects, which can obscure the Sun's influence on the global hemispheric climate, are discussed.     

General atmospheric circulation driven by polar and diurnal surface temperature variations

Described is a global circulation model for the Venus atmosphere that includes the effects of both polar cooling and diurnal temperature variation. It is based on a linearized Boussinesq approximation and boundary conditions derived from theoretical and empirical considerations. The time-dependent, three-dimensional flow field is deduced without any a priori assumptions about its configuration. Results show that the mean atmospheric motions are essentially zonal in a narrow belt near the equator and change to become meridional over most of the globe. The circulation pattern is not symmetrical and rotates about the polar axis of the planet with the period of the solar day.     

Quantitative estimation of helium-3 spatial distribution in the lunar regolith layer

³He (helium-3) in the lunar regolith implanted by the solar wind is one of the most valuable resources because of its potential as a fusion fuel. The abundance of ³He in the lunar regolith is related to solar wind flux, lunar surface maturity and TiO₂ content, etc. A model of solar wind flux, which takes account of variations due to shielding of the nearside when the Moon is in the Earth's magnetotail, is used to present a global distribution of relative solar wind flux over the lunar surface. Using Clementine UV/VIS multispectral data, the global distribution of lunar surface optical maturity (OMAT) and the TiO₂ content in the lunar regolith are calculated. Based on Apollo regolith samples, a linear relation between ³He abundance and normalized solar wind flux, optical maturity, and TiO₂ content is presented. To simulate the brightness temperature of the lunar surface, which is the mission of the Chinese Chang-E project's multichannel radiometers, a global distribution of regolith layer thickness is first empirically constructed from lunar digital elevation mapping (DEM). Then an inversion approach is presented to retrieve the global regolith layer thickness. It finally yields the total amount of ³He per unit area in the lunar regolith layer, which is related to the regolith layer thickness, solar wind flux, optical maturity and TiO₂ content, etc. The global inventory of ³He is estimated as 6.50×¹⁰⁸ kg, where 3.72×¹⁰⁸ kg is for the lunar nearside and 2.78×¹⁰⁸ kg is for the lunar farside.     

Influence of a uniform coronal magnetic field on solar p modes: coupling to slow resonant MHD waves

The influence of a constant coronal magnetic field on solar global oscillations is investigated for a simple planar equilibrium model. The model consists of an atmosphere with a constant horizontal magnetic field and a constant sound speed, on top of an adiabatic interior having a linear temperature profile. The focus is on the possible resonant coupling of global solar oscillation modes to local slow continuum modes of the atmosphere and the consequent damping of the global oscillations. In order to avoid Alfvén resonances, the analysis is restricted to propagation parallel to the coronal magnetic field. Parallel propagating oscillation modes in this equilibrium model have already been studied by Evans and Roberts (1990). However, they avoided the resonant coupling to slow continuum modes by a special choice of the temperature profile. The physical process of resonant absorption of the acoustic modes with frequency in the cusp continuum is mathematically completely described by the ideal MHD differential equations which for this particular equilibrium model reduce to the hypergeometric differential equation. The resonant layer is correctly dealt with in ideal MHD by a proper treatment of the logarithmical branch cut of the hypergeometric function. The result of the resonant coupling with cusp waves is twofold. The eigenfrequencies become complex and the real part of the frequency is shifted. The shift of the real part of the frequency is not negligible and within the limit of observational accuracy. This indicates that resonant interactions should definitely be taken into account when calculating the frequencies of the global solar oscillations.     

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 – 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 – 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.     

Periodicities in Global Mean TEC from GNSS Observations

As an important measurement parameter, global total electron content (TEC) is appropriate for the study of the Sun–Earth connection. In this paper, the wavelet technique is employed to investigate the periodicities in global mean TEC during 1995–2008. Analysis results show several remarkable components (including 27-day, semiannual and annual cycles) existing in global mean TEC with obvious time-variable characteristics, besides 11-year cycle. After analyzing sunspot numbers and solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) radiation variations during this time period, except for semiannual variations, close correlation between global mean TEC and solar variations is found, especially, a strong resemblance of the 27-day fluctuation exists in global mean TEC, sunspot and solar EUV radiation variations.     

Modeling the interannual variability and trends in gross and net primary productivity of tropical forests from 1982 to 1999

The role of tropical ecosystems in global carbon cycling is uncertain, at least partially due to an incomplete understanding of climatic forcings of carbon fluxes. To reduce this uncertainty, we simulated and analyzed 1982–1999 Amazonian, African, and Asian carbon fluxes using the Biome-BGC prognostic carbon cycle model driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis daily climate data. We first characterized the individual contribution of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to interannual variations in carbon fluxes and then calculated trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP). In tropical ecosystems, variations in solar radiation and, to a lesser extent, temperature and precipitation, explained most interannual variation in GPP. On the other hand, temperature followed by solar radiation primarily determined variation in NPP. Tropical GPP gradually increased in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂. Confirming earlier studies, changes in solar radiation played a dominant role in CO₂ uptake over the Amazon relative to other tropical regions. Model results showed negligible impacts from variations and trends in precipitation or vapor pressure deficits on CO₂ uptake.