利用地震资料和天文周期分析的方法开展中期地震预报

地震是一种复杂的自然现象,其成因及发展的物理过程,目前尚在探索之中。地震预报在世界上还是一个尚未解决的难题。但是,地震预报并不是不可能的。地震既然是一种自然现象,必然有其特定的规律。     

The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan

The EEPAS (“Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale”) model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue, and applied successfully in quasi-prospective tests on the CNSS catalogue for California for forecasting earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.75 and on the JMA catalogue of Japan for magnitudes above 6.75. Here we test whether the Ψ scaling relations extend to lower magnitudes, by applying EEPAS to depth-restricted subsets of the NIED catalogue of the Kanto area, central Japan, for magnitudes above 4.75. As in previous studies, the EEPAS model is found to be more informative than a quasi-static baseline model based on proximity to past earthquakes, and much more informative than the stationary uniform Poisson model. The information that it provides is illustrated by maps of the earthquake occurrence rate density, covering magnitudes from 5.0 to 8.0, for the central Japan region as at the beginning of year 2004, using the NIED and JMA catalogues to mid-2003.     

三峡库区巴东库岸段水库地震迁移规律

自三峡水库蓄水以来,三峡库区巴东县库岸段发生上万次与水库蓄水相关的水库地震,最大震级5.1级。近几年发表相关论文50篇左右,侧重于水库地震的震源机制解、水库地震与坝前水位的关系、单个较大型水库地震以及微地震群的成因机理问题,对水库地震时间上的周期性以及空间上扩展规律研究尚少。本论文在野外地质调查（包括泉水流量的调查）基础上,结合近几年发表的文献资料,对巴东县库岸段水库地震变迁过程进行了深入的研究,得出了以下3点结论:（1）从时间上看,巴东水库地震的爆发具有周期性,表现为长周期和短周期。（2）溶洞坍塌型水库地震的分布呈线状,其形成机理与高孔隙水压以及动水圧过程密切相关。（3）同时野外泉水调查研究也表明三峡库区巴东段水库地震与溶洞坍塌具有密切关系,并且从机理上说明了水库地震空间扩展机制。     

Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment

This note discusses three interconnected statistical problems concerning the Parkfield sequence of moderate earthquakes and the Parkfield prediction experiment: (a) Is it possible that the quasi-periodic Parkfield sequence of characteristic earthquakes is no uncommon, specific phenomenon (the research hypothesis), but can be explained by a preferential selection from available earthquake catalogs? To this end we formulate the null hypothesis (earthquakes occur according to the Poisson process in time and their size follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation). We test whether the null hypothesis can be rejected as an explanation for the Parkfield sequence. (b) If the null hypothesis cannot be refuted, what is the probability of magnitude m ≥ 6 earthquake occurrence in the Parkfield region? (c) The direct goal of the Parkfield experiment is the registration of precursory phenomena prior to a m6 earthquake. However, in the absence of the characteristic earthquake, can the experiment resolve which of the two competing hypotheses is true in a reasonable time? Statistical analysis is hindered by an insufficiently rigorous definition of the research model and inadequate or ambiguous data. However, we show that the null hypothesis cannot be decisively rejected. The quasi-periodic pattern of intermediate size earthquakes in the Parkfield area is a statistical event likely to occur by chance if it has been preferentially selected from available earthquake catalogs. The observed magnitude-frequency curves for small and intermediate earthquakes in the Parkfield area agree with the theoretical distribution computed on the basis of a modified Gutenberg-Richter law (gamma distribution), using deformation rates for the San Andreas fault. We show that the size distribution of the Parkfield characteristic earthquakes can also be attributed to selection bias. According to the null hypothesis, the yearly probability of a m ≥ 6 earthquake originating in the Parkfield area is less than 1%, signifying that several more decades of observation may be needed before the expected event occurs. By its design, the Parkfield experiment cannot be expected to yield statistically significant conclusions on the validity of the research hypothesis for many decades.     

Estimation of the compounding distribution in the compound Poisson process model for earthquakes

Compound Poisson process models have been studied earlier for earthquake occurrences, with some arbitrary compounding distributions. It is more meaningful to abstract information about the compounding distribution from the empirical observations on the earthquake sequences. The difinition of a compound distribution can be interpreted as an integral transform of the compounding distribution. The latter distribution can therefore be estimated by inverting the integral transform. Alternatively, from the moments of the observable random variablesviz. (a) the number of earthquakes per unit time or (b) the waiting times for subsequent earthquakes, the moments of the compounding distribution can be obtained. This information can be converted into a statement about the compounding distribution.     

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

地震地质工作在地震预报中的任务

我国是一个强地震较多的国家,几千年来发生了上千次强烈地震,劳动人民与地震灾害作斗争有悠久的历史,但是在历代封建王朝和蒋介石卖国集团统治的旧中国,只留下了悲惨的灾情记载。1920年海源大震时山崩地裂,黑水横流,村镇埋没,死于地震灾害者达二十万人,然而反动统治者置人民生命财产的重大损失于不顾,借地震灾害敲诈勒索,大发横财。     

断块大地构造与地震活动的构造物理研究

断块大地构造理论几乎涉及地震活动的各个方面： 1）地震记录表明不但是强震,大多数6级以上地震也分布在构造块体边界上,构造块体控制了地震分布; 2）地震活动规律体现在块体整体活动中。例如,鄂尔多斯地块周边单个断陷带的地震活跃期与平静期长短不一,无明显规律。但当把鄂尔多斯地块周边作为一个整体,其地震活动在时间上显示了准周期性; 3）地块运动通过周边断层交替活动实现。从断层活动相互作用的时间间隔和错动形式出发可把它分为强震交替活动型（又可分长时间间隔和短时间间隔两类）和强震与弱震或断层蠕动交替活动型。强震交替活动型中时间间隔很短的双震活动较早被发现。强震交替活动型中时间间隔很长的类型虽然不易识别,但是依赖于中国历史地震目录,还是发现鄂尔多斯地块周边山西断陷带与渭河断陷带在历史上的3次交替活动等; 强震与弱震或断层蠕动型的交替活动型很不容易被发现,仅在台网较密,观测条件较好的北京地区观测到。4）利用一些实验结果讨论了交替活动的规律。此外,结合断块大地构造理论对一些地震现象进行了讨论。     

Estimation of Coulomb stress changes and induced earthquake occurrences prediction in the region of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

In the region of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, there has been occurrence of several frequent earthquakes of moderate intensity since reservoir impounding occurred in 2003. These earthquakes are generally believed to be induced by reservoir impoundment and water-level variations. Usually, the geo-stress will change, when natural earthquakes occur. Following this principle, this paper adopted the rate and state theory to simulate and estimate Coulomb stress changes in the TGR region and obtained the pattern of Coulomb stress changes with time and the event sequence as well as the distribution of Coulomb stress changes in space. First, the TGR regional catalogue was analyzed and processed, leading to quantification of the magnitude of completeness and all of the parameters that are used in the stress–seismicity inversion process, including the reference seismicity rates, characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and stress rates. Second, the temporal evolution of the stress changes in different time windows was computed and analyzed, and it was found that there is an association between the Coulomb stress changes and rates of increase in the cumulative number of earthquakes. In addition, the earthquake occurred in November 2008 (M _S = 4.1) was analyzed and attempted to simulate the distribution of stress changes in space through the stress–seismicity inversion model. The results proved that the modeled area coincides with the historical area of earthquakes that occurred after 2008. Finally, a prediction was made about the earthquake productivity rates after 2015, which showed a declining earthquake rate over time that ultimately returned to the background seismicity. This result is essentially in agreement with Omori’s law. To conclude, it is rational to use the stress-inversion method to analyze the relationship between induced earthquake seismicity and local stress changes as well as to simulate the area of earthquake occurrence and productivity rates of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik,NW Turkey)

Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.     

Space-time distribution patterns of destructive earthquakes in the inner belt of central Japan: Activity intervals and locations of earthquakes

Based on a block structure model of the inner belt of central Japan, an examination was conducted of the space-time distribution patterns of destructiv magnitudes M 6.4 or greater (M =Japan Meteorological Agency Scale). The distribution patterns revealed a periodicity in earthquake activit seismic gaps. Major NW—SE trending left-lateral active faults divide the inner belt of central Japan into four blocks, 20–80 km wide. The occurrenc A.D. with M ≥ 6.4, which have caused significant damage, were documented in the inner belt of central Japan. The epicenters of these earthquakes close to the block boundaries.

Using the relationship between the magnitude of earthquakes which occurred in the Japanese Islands and the active length of faults that generated them, movement is calculated for each historical earthquake. Space—time distributions of earthquakes were obtained from the calculated lengths, the latitud of generation. When an active period begins, a portion or segment of the block boundary creates an earthquake, which in turn appears on the ground surf active period ends when the block boundary generates earthquakes over the entire length of the block boundary without overlapping.

Five seismic gaps with fault lengths of 20 km or longer can be found in the inner belt of central Japan. It is predicted that the gaps will generate ea magnitudes of 7.0. These data are of significance for estimating a regional earthquake risk over central Japan in the design of large earthquake resist

The time sequences of earthquakes on the block boundaries reveal a similar tendency, with alternating active periods with seismic activity and quiet pe activity. The inner belt of central Japan is now in the last stage of an active period. The next active period is predicted to occur around 2500 A.D.     

强震的孕育规律与孕震模式

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。     

Estimation of the waiting time distributions of earthquakes

Whether the earthquake occurrences follow a Poisson process model is a widely debated issue. The Poisson process model has great conceptual appeal and those who rejected it under pressure of empirical evidence have tried to restore it by trying to identify main events and suppressing foreshocks and aftershocks. The approach here is to estimate the density functions for the waiting times of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, the notion of Gram-Charlier series which is a standard method for the estimation of density functions has been extended based on the orthogonality properties of certain polynomials such as Laguerre and Legendre. It is argued that it is best to estimate density functions in the context of a particular null hypothesis. Using the results of estimation a simple test has been designed to establish that earthquakes do not occur as independent events, thus violating one of the postulates of a Poisson process model. Both methodological and utilitarian aspects are dealt with.     

Investigations of earthquake probabilities in the Indian Ocean seismic belts

Gumbel's extreme-value theory is used to estimate the probability of occurrence and average return periods for earthquakes in the Indian Ocean seismic belts. The nature of seismic activity, and annual and 50 year maximum magnitudes of earthquakes are also discussed. The earthquake occurrence model of autocorrelation lends support for the periodicity of the most probable earthquake in these belts. The percentage probability of recurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above has been estimated for the region mentioned.     

三峡库区仙女山和九畹溪断裂带水库地震变化规律

三峡库区蓄水以来,长江周边出现了大量的水库地震,主要集中于巴东—泄滩—仙女山区域,目前已达上万次,最大震级为5.1级。通过野外地质调查及对已有水库地震数据进行研究,采用构造地质分析方法,对三峡库区仙女山和九畹溪断裂带水库地震空间上的迁移规律、时间上的周期规律以及微地震群的成因机理进行分析。结果表明：从时间上看,水库地震具有周期性,表现为长周期（与库水位相关）和短周期（与库水位快速波动相关）;从空间上看,水库地震具有迁移规律,受九畹溪断裂控制的触发型水库地震存在着逐渐向南迁移的特征,受仙女山断裂控制的触发型水库地震局限分布于仙女山断裂北延端点处,分布于仙女山断裂西侧（周坪乡附近）带状分布的水库诱发地震逐渐呈点状向南迁移。     

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M _w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.     

Simulation of large earthquakes and its implications on earthquake insurance rates: a case study in Bursa region (Turkey)

Ground motion intensity parameters of past and potential earthquakes are required for a range of purposes including earthquake insurance practice. In regions with no or sparse earthquake recordings, most of the available methods generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases where full ground motion time histories are required, simulations that consider fault rupture processes become necessary. In this study, a major novel use of simulated ground motions is presented in insurance premium calculations which also require ground motion intensity measures that are not always available through observations. For this purpose, potential earthquakes in Bursa are simulated using stochastic finite-fault simulation method with dynamic corner frequency model. To ensure simulations with reliable synthetic ground motions, input parameters are derived from regional data. Regional model parameters are verified by comparisons against the observations as well as ground motion prediction equations. Next, a potential large magnitude event in Bursa is simulated. Distribution of peak ground motion parameters and time histories at selected locations are obtained. From these parameters, the corresponding Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) are estimated. Later, these MMIs are used as the main ground motion parameter in damage probability matrices (DPM). Return period of the scenario earthquake is obtained from the previous regional seismic hazard studies. Finally, insurance rates for Bursa region are determined with implementation of two new approaches in the literature. The probability of the scenario event and the expected mean damage ratios (MDR) from the corresponding DPMs are used, and the results are compared to Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) rates. Results show that insurance premiums can be effectively computed using simulated ground motions in the absence of real data.     

Seismic and electrical precursors to the 17-1-1983, M7 kefallinia earthquake,Greece: Signatures of a SOC system

Prior to the 17-1-1983 event, the seismicity of the broader area of the Ionian islands and western Greece exhibited several phenomena interpretable in the context of a self-organised critical system with long range interactions. The regional seismic energy release exhibited power law acceleration towards the time of rupture, the numerical modelling of which yields a time-to-failure of 1983.1 ± 0.2. Time dependent changes were also observed in the b-values, assuming the form of monotonic increase that promptly reversed after the earthquake. This indicates the induction of instability to the region due to the earthquake preparation process, which is consistent with the critical point earthquake model. The critical point model predicts that failure is a co-operative effect occurring at small scale, and cascading from the microscopic to the macroscopic scale. This involves a crack propagation avalanche at the terminal phase of the seismic cycle, the time function of which has been modelled with a limited class of characteristic transient bay-like shapes, featuring a corner frequency and inverse power energy distribution law. Electrification processes due to crack propagation may generate an electrical precursor with similar characteristics. Such a potential precursor has been observed independently on 15-1-1983, approx. 120km from the epicentre. In consequence of our observations, we discuss a model relating seismicity and electrical precursors.