高空气象探测数据评定方法研究

介绍了高空气象探测中数据不确定度的分析方法,并提出优化测量方案。     

高空气象探测数据评定方法研究

介绍了高空气象探测中数据不确定度的分析方法，并提出优化测量方案。     

AIRS资料质量控制对飓风路径模拟的影响试验

对WRFDA模式中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案进行了检验,并以美国Earl飓风为例进行数值试验,研究了质量控制方案对飓风路径模拟的影响。试验结果表明:WRFDA模式中11条质量控制原则对红外高光谱AIRS亮温资料的同化效果影响很大,不论是加入逐条质量控制原则,还是缺席某条质量控制原则,飓风路径的模拟情况都比不上控制试验;而在所有质量控制原则都加入之后,在大部分模拟时段内同化试验中模拟的飓风路径偏差都要小于控制试验,而且同化试验中最大路径偏差也小于控制试验。不同的质量控制原则对观测资料的过滤能力也不一样,其中地表发射率Jacobian分量检测、临边检测、云检测和SST检测等4个质量控制原则剔除卫星资料数量相对较多。本文中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案的对比试验,可以为中国发展红外高光谱卫星系统提供非常有益的借鉴和参考。     

我国探空测湿传感器的温、湿特性试验与分析

通过改进湿度传感器温湿特性实验室测试方法,对国产GPS探空系统和RS92探空仪湿度传感器的温湿特性进行了测试分析.结果表明:国产电子探空仪的湿度传感器在低温状态下探测滞后性明显,给高空湿度的动态测量带来了较大误差,尤其是在低温升湿过程测量比低温降湿过程更为显著.试验还表明环境空气流量的变化会对湿度的测量造成明显的影响,结果有助于改进探空仪湿度传感器测湿算法和防雨帽工艺设计,提高高空湿度测量能力.     

Climatic characteristics of air humidity in the Arctic region from upper-air data

The results are presented of the analysis of mean values and trends in precipitable water in the Arctic atmosphere determined from the data of 55 aerological stations located northwards of 60° N for 1972-2011. The regions with maximum and minimum mean values and trends are identified. It is demonstrated that the humidity increase took place almost over the whole latitudinal zone in summer. The comparison with similar characteristics obtained by other researchers from the reanalysis data demonstrates good agreement.     

北京地区极地对流层顶与地面要素之间的关系

利用北京地区１９７７－１９９０年的高空、地资料，讨论了极地对流层顶与地面温度的关系。发现两者之间正相关关系较好。然而，当两者谷值出现的月份发生位相关异时，当年年降水相对变率大于同期降水的平均相对变率。     

Distribution of water vapor content (WVC) and its seasonal variation over the mainland of China

Based on the meteorological data of 105 aerological stations during the period of 1960－1969, the monthly average water vapor content (WVC) in air column over the mainland of China is calculated. Charts showing the distribution of mean WVC for January and July and its seasonal variation associated with the atmos-pheric circulation in the lower troposphere over East Asia are also presented. Results obtained from this anal-ysis will contribute to the assessment of water resources, as well as the studies of the formation of rainfall and climate.     

一次异常高空探测记录的分析

通过对一次单独测风记录的分析,探讨高空探测业务中异常记录的判断和处理。     

T213数值预报产品在白银市盛夏中雨以上降水中的释用技术

基于MICAPS系统,利用T213数值预报格点资料、预报关键区34个站点的高空资料以及市内4县区不同时次的本站气压和日降水量资料,通过分析白银市中雨以上降水的天气特征,归纳出中雨以上降水的天气形势,并据此进行客观定量化分型;选取对白银市中雨以上降水具有明显物理意义的消空指标和预报因子,利用PP数值释用方法,建立了白银市盛夏中雨以上降水的短期预报模型。对2007年6～8月进行试报,预报准确率平均达66.7%,预报效果较好。     

Long-term estimates of parameters of the vertical distribution of cloud layers from atmospheric radiosounding data

Based on the global aerological dataset and on the method for determination of the boundaries and amount of cloudiness using the profiles of temperature and humidity obtained from the atmospheric radiosounding data [23], the estimates are computed for the parameters of atmospheric temperature- humidity separation into cloud and intercloud layers from the surface to the height of 10 km. The base and top of cloud layers and their total thickness and frequency are selected as layering parameters. The computations are based on the data for the observational period of 1964-1998. To specify the spatiotemporal features of atmospheric layering, long-term geographic distributions of mean values and standard deviations of the mentioned parameters are constructed for January and July, and the amplitude of their variations is determined.     

Estimation of atmospheric parameters for determining dispersion ellipses of space rocket fragments

A new approach to the estimation of atmospheric parameters affecting the movement of space rocket fragments in case of accident launches is proposed by the example of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Due to the absence of operational information on the vertical distribution of atmospheric parameters above 30 km, the method is considered which allows using available archival aerological data and the statistical characteristics of air density and wind speed components computed from the rocket sounding of the atmosphere for ballistic calculations.     

台风云娜陆上维持原因浅析

利用台风年鉴、日本气象厅最佳路径资料、T213分析资料、卫星云图和高空观测资料对台风云娜登陆后长时间维持不消之原因进行了天气和动力学诊断分析。结果表明：低层水汽源源不断的输送、中纬度天气系统与云娜相互作用在其北侧低层建立偏东风急流和力管场,并且它始终处在高层强辐散流场东南侧或南侧的流出气流以及垂直切变小值区中是云娜在陆上维持的条件。     

Temperature stratification of the lower atmosphere over Moscow

Features of diurnal and annual cycles and of seasonal changes of temperature stratification in the lower 800-m air layer over Moscow are discussed on the basis of analysis of long-term data of acoustic (sodar) observations at Moscow State University (MSU). Of about 34 000 separate hours of height-time sweep of echo signal during 1988–2003, refined estimates are presented of occurrence frequencies of surface and elevated inversions, unstable stratification, etc., in Moscow. On the basis of long series of hourly sodar data and surface weather observations at MSU, special features of temperature stratification are considered under extremely low and high values of air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. A review is presented of existing data on temperature stratification in central Russia for the whole period of aerological observations; results of acoustic sounding are compared against the data obtained using other techniques.     

Estimating the Number of Cloud Layers through Radiosonde Data from Russian Aerological Stations for 1964–2014

Radiosonde data are used for the period of 1964–2014 and the method that determines the boundaries and cloud amount based on the profiles of temperature and humidity [23]; long-period statistical characteristics are computed for the cloud layer number for different altitude ranges from the ground to 10 km. The study is performed for the Russian aerological stations located at different latitudes and climate zones. To specify the spatiotemporal features of the atmosphere layering into cloud layers and cloudless layers between them, the estimates of monthly mean, seasonal mean, and annual mean values of cloud layer number as well as of their standard deviations are computed, and the amplitude of their variations is determined. The results qualitatively agree with the data of aircraft-based sounding of the atmosphere as well as with the data of radars and experiments with free balloons.     

我国上空的水汽含量及其气候学估算

该文根据中国高空气候标准值 (1971—2000年) 逐月数据集124个探空站资料,计算出各站的整层大气水汽含量,并绘制出年水汽含量分布,除青藏高原地区外,其余地区基本上呈纬向分布。继而配合我国地面气候标准值逐月数据集的水汽压和地面气压数据,在对水汽压进行相应的订正后,将其与整层水汽含量进行相关分析,拟合出全国普遍适用的、统一的或分月的线性经验表达式。拟合结果与实测值之间的均方根误差为0.25 cm。文中还详细讨论了多项式不同次数对拟合结果的影响,结果表明:与数据点走向拟合较好的多项式,次数高其结果并非误差最小。利用经地面气压订正的地面水汽压 (x) 与整层水汽含量 (y) 的拟合公式为y=0.185x+0.093,其最大优点是站点无论高低、不分地域普遍适用。     

Determination of liquid water content and reserve of cumulonimbus cloudiness from meteorological radar information

The study of the liquid water content and reserve of convective cloudiness accompanied by the rain showers, thunderstorms, and hail is carried out. The values of liquid water content and reserve were obtained by means of computations on the basis of the radar characteristics of cumulonimbus cloudiness as well as with the aid of a number of empirical dependences. It was demonstrated that the use of meteorological radar information for the purpose of computation of the microphysical cloud characteristics such as liquid water content and reserve enables to supplement and specify the data of the ground-based meteorological and aerological observations.     

Spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall data using functional data analysis

The paper analyzes equivalent data for a low density meteorological station network (spatially discontinuous data) and poor temporal homogeneity of thunderstorm observational data. Due to that, a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) dataset was tested. The Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy index value (MUCAPE) above the 200 J kg^?1 threshold was selected as a predictor describing favorable conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms. The quality of the dataset was examined through a comparison between model results and soundings from several aerological stations in Central Europe. Good, statistically significant (0.05 significance level) results were obtained through correlation analysis; the value of Pearson’s correlation coefficient was above 0.8 in every single case. Then, using methods associated with gridded climatology, data series for 44 weather stations were derived and an analysis of correlation between RegCM modeled data and in situ thunderstorm observations was conducted with coefficients in the range of 0.75–0.90. The possibility of employing the dataset in thunderstorm climatology analysis was checked via a few examples by mapping monthly, seasonal, and annual means. Moreover, long-term variability and trend analysis along with modeled MUCAPE data were tested. As a result, the RegCM modeled MUCAPE gridded dataset was proposed as an easily available, suitable, and valuable predictor for thunderstorm climatology analysis and mapping. Finally, some limitations are discussed and recommendations for further improvements are given.     

Thickness of the dry convection and large-scale subsidence above deserts

Thickness of dry convection above various deserts of the world is obtained from aerological data, and assimilated data from ECMWF. A mixed layer develops up to a height of about 1 km above the central Sahara, where strong subsidence occurs. However, above many other deserts in Africa and Asia, a deep mixed layer develops up to 4–6 km. These mixed layers develop to a high altitude because the daytime mixed layer links with an existing weakly stratified, near-neutral layer above. Large-scale subsidence does not reach the surface throughout the day, except in the winter season. Mixed-layer height is shallower in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer season.     

Extreme weather condition for aviation over the Donets Ridge on August 22, 2006

Synoptic, aerological, satellite, and radar data are analyzed to detect space and time evolution of aviation-hazardous weather in Donbass on August 22, 2006. The forecasts of dangerous convective activity, of convective cloud top heights, and of convective cloud location within the frontal zone, produced with an operational forecasting technology at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, suggest extremely hazardous conditions in Donbass; mesoscale analysis, based on classical rules, gives additional information. Special conditions favoring the convective activity were a wave disturbance at the polar front, convective instability at the time of its maximum development, and effects of upland and of proximity of the sea.