Synoptic conditions of extreme windstorms over Switzerland in a changing climate

This paper reports on a method using composites for studying synoptic conditions of a series of windstorm events selected on the basis of maximum wind speeds in Switzerland. The composite storm-averaged conditions indicate how flow fields, as well as related surface conditions, are organised so as to produce high wind speeds near the surface. On average, high winds in Switzerland, mainly generated by transient synoptic-scale eddies, are characterised by a minimum in the mean sea level pressure field over southern Norway, anticyclonic conditions south of 35°N and a steep pressure gradient over continental western Europe. The geopotential aloft has a predominant zonal structure, producing high winds between 45°N and 50°N over the eastern Atlantic and further inland; the jet stream has its maximum speed at 50°N over the Celtic Sea and Brittany at 250?hPa. Close to the surface, large temperature contrasts between the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea and the cooler continent are diagnosed. The results thus obtained differ to those produced by other methods based on the analysis of deep cyclones or of strong vorticity in the northern North Atlantic Ocean basin. Differences of the composite mean synoptic conditions for current (1961?C1990) and future climate (2071?C2100) as simulated by the Global Climate Model HadAM3H in the context of the EU PRUDENCE project indicate that windstorms in a warmer world are generated by a subtle modification of the atmospheric baroclinicity, especially over the ocean and where greater ocean-continent temperature contrasts are simulated during winters. However, there are no signs of reduced storm activity as the climate warms by the end of the twenty-first century.     

渤海湾风暴潮天气系统及风场结构个例分析

利用常规资料、中尺度模式(MM5)模拟结果和自动站资料分析了2003年10月11日渤海湾风暴潮的天气系统及风场结构特征。分析表明，强冷空气从偏东路径南下与强盛的暖湿急流及地面倒槽的共同作用，形成持续强东北大风是引发渤海风暴潮的主要强迫动力，风应力海水向岸输送(增水)范围约100km持续时间10～12h，风应力增水作用与天文大潮相叠加直接导致风暴潮的发生。1985年以来渤海湾成灾风暴潮发生的几率明显增加。     

中尺度数值模拟中的边界层多尺度湍流参数化方案

该文在多尺度湍流理论的研究成果基础上, 将边界层湍流风谱与平均量的梯度相联系, 建立了边界层多尺度湍流参数化子模式, 之后放入MM5模式中进行了个例模拟研究, 并与MM5模式附带的M RF边界层参数化、Blackadar高分辨率边界层参数化的模拟结果进行比较和分析。结果表明, 多尺度湍流理论能够反映出实际大气边界层中热量垂直输送的规律, 将其用于中尺度数值预报模式的边界层物理过程参数化是可行的; 多尺度湍流参数化在地表层和边界层内各个层次上都着重考虑含能量最大的涡的作用以及水平热力不均匀性的影响, 因此在地形和下垫面比较复杂的区域, 对中尺度天气系统的模拟有进一步发展的前景。     

乌拉特中旗一次强沙尘暴天气成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、亚欧天气分析图,对2010年3月19日的一次由蒙古冷涡强烈发展而引发的强沙尘暴天气过程,从天气学成因、动力机制等方面进行分析。表明,强冷空气的卷入使蒙古冷涡强烈发展,为沙尘暴的发生提供了动力条件;蒙古冷涡的垂直结构提供了动量下传机制,在地面冷锋后部形成大风区,为沙尘暴的形成提供了基本条件。通过对这次蒙古冷涡引发的强沙尘暴天气过程的分析,找出蒙古冷涡引发的沙尘暴天气过程的一些特点和预报着眼点。     

Characteristics of Meteorological Factors over Different Landscape Types During Dust Storm Events in Cele, Xinjiang, China

Landscape characteristics influence meteorological factors, thus affect the occurrence and nature of dust storm events. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of six meteorological factors (wind velocity, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity (RH), photo synthetically active radiation (PAR), and solar radiation) over different landscape types (shifting-sand frontier, semi-fixed sandy land, fixed sandy land, and the inner region of an oasis) before and after dust storms during four typical dust storm events in an oasis-desert ecotone in Cele, Xinjiang, China. The results show that the average wind velocity decreased significantly from the shifting-sand frontier to the inner oasis, which was mainly attributable to the vegetation coverage. Before the dust storm events, there were obvious differences in air temperature and RH either in the horizontal or vertical direction over the different landscape types. However, these factors were very similar during and following the dust storm events. PAR and solar radiation were significantly reduced during the dust storm events and the subsequent sand-blowing and floating-dust conditions. This effect was much stronger than during similar weather conditions without dust storm events such as sand-blowing and overcast and/or rainy days. Additionally, the variation in the meteorological factors among the different landscapes was also affected by the prevailing wind direction during the dust storm events. However, the landscape type slightly changed the prevailing wind direction, with the greatest dispersion distribution of wind direction in the inner oasis. The findings of this study are helpful for understanding the function of landscape types in the occurrence of dust storms, as well as for providing a theoretical basis for prevention of dust storms.     

Wind forcing due to synoptic storm activity over the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Six‐hourly surface wind analyses over the North Pacific Ocean covering the 10‐year period 1969–78 are used to describe synoptic storm activity in terms of parameters that are directly related to the atmospheric forcing of the ocean. The cube of the atmospheric friction velocity, u³ _* and the curl of the surface wind stress, curl τ, are used because of their relationship to turbulent vertical mixing and Ekman pumping in the ocean, respectively. In an attempt to isolate synoptic disturbances from mean fields, the time series of surface wind components at each individual grid point are partitioned into “high‐pass” (periods shorter than 10 days) and “low‐pass” (periods longer than 10 days) components by means of conventional filtering procedures. The two quantities u³ _* and curl τ are then calculated from (a) the high‐pass filtered wind components only, (b) a combination of the filtered wind components that include the interaction between the high‐ and low‐pass fields, and (c) the unfiltered wind components. These quantities describe the atmospheric forcing of the ocean that is attributable to (a) synoptic storm activity by itself, (b) synoptic storm activity in the presence of the low‐pass (mean) flow, and (c) the total spectrum of wind forcing, respectively.

Maps of the long‐term (10‐year) monthly mean u³ _* calculated from (a) and (b) are coherent across the mid‐latitude North Pacific and appear to coincide with the normal seasonal evolution of synoptic storm activity in that region. In mid‐latitudes, the values of u³ _* calculated from (a) and (b) are 27 and 83%, respectively, of the value of u³ _* itself. Thus, a major fraction of the production of turbulent energy available for mixing in the upper layers of the ocean comes from synoptic disturbances with a period shorter than 10 days. Maps of the long‐term monthly mean wind stress curl are quite different in that the mean wind stress curl calculated from (a) is essentially negligible. However, the mean curl calculated from (b) closely resembles the pattern of total curl (c), but with a magnitude of only 41% of (c). Thus, synoptic disturbances with a period shorter than 10 days are also responsible for a significant fraction of the Ekman pumping of the ocean.

Future studies with these data will attempt to determine whether a relationship exists between synoptic storm activity, as measured by the parameters developed in this study, and large‐scale sea‐surface temperature anomalies.     

2003～2004年强对流灾害性天气多普勒天气雷达产品特征分析

利用银川新一代天气雷达2003～2004年汛期监测到的12次强对流天气过程产品,主要包括：强度、速度、组合反射率、冰雹指数、风廓线、风暴追踪信息、垂直积分液态水含量、中尺度气旋等,特别是径向速度回波产品,根据产品图象特征,将其分为3类,分别从中尺度天气学原理等进行深入的综合分析,得出多普勒天气雷达的几种重要产品对强对流天气特别是冰雹天气的临近预报具有重要使用价值,同时与常规数字化天气雷达进行了对比分析。     

Characteristics of Meteorological Factors over Different Landscape Types During Dust Storm Events in Cele,Xinjiang,China

Landscape characteristics influence meteorological factors, thus affect the occurrence and nature of dust storm events. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of six meteorological factors(wind velocity, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity(RH), photo synthetically active radiation(PAR), and solar radiation) over different landscape types(shifting-sand frontier, semi-fixed sandy land, fixed sandy land, and the inner region of an oasis) before and after dust storms during four typical dust storm events in an oasis-desert ecotone in Cele, Xinjiang, China. The results show that the average wind velocity decreased significantly from the shifting-sand frontier to the inner oasis, which was mainly attributable to the vegetation coverage. Before the dust storm events, there were obvious differences in air temperature and RH either in the horizontal or vertical direction over the different landscape types. However, these factors were very similar during and following the dust storm events. PAR and solar radiation were significantly reduced during the dust storm events and the subsequent sand-blowing and floating-dust conditions. This effect was much stronger than during similar weather conditions without dust storm events such as sand-blowing and overcast and/or rainy days. Additionally, the variation in the meteorological factors among the different landscapes was also affected by the prevailing wind direction during the dust storm events. However, the landscape type slightly changed the prevailing wind direction, with the greatest dispersion distribution of wind direction in the inner oasis. The findings of this study are helpful for understanding the function of landscape types in the occurrence of dust storms, as well as for providing a theoretical basis for prevention of dust storms.     

Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales

The output of several multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is examined with respect to the variability of global storm activity in winter on time scales of decades and longer. The frequency of maximum wind speed events within a grid box, using the lower limits on the Beaufort wind speed scale of 8 and 10 Bft as thresholds, is taken as the characteristic parameter. Two historical climate runs with time-dependent forcing of the last five centuries, one control simulation, and three climate change experiments are considered. The storm frequency shows no trend until recently. Global maps for the industrially influenced period hardly differ from pre-industrial maps, even though significant temperature anomalies temporarily emerge in the historical runs. Two indicators describing the frequency and the regional shift of storm activity are determined. In historical times they are decoupled from temperature. Variations in solar and volcanic forcing in the historical simulations as well as in greenhouse gas concentrations for the industrially influenced period are not related to variations in storm activity. Also, anomalous temperature regimes like the Late Maunder Minimum are not associated with systematic storm conditions. In the climate change experiments, a poleward shift of storm activity is found in all three storm track regions. Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, storm activity increases, while it decreases over the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the historical runs, and with the exception of the North Pacific storm frequency index, the storm indices parallel the development of temperature, exceeding the 2 σ-range of pre-industrial variations in the early twenty-first century.     

渤海西岸致灾风暴潮的统计预报模型

渤海西岸是风暴潮灾害多发区,1990年代以后发生几率和灾害损失明显增加。利用气象科学和海洋水文科学相结合的方法,依据黄骅港潮汐资料,对发生在渤海西岸的风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明,台风和强冷空气配合气旋是造成渤海西岸风暴潮的主要天气系统,偏东大风增水和天文潮叠加是造成风暴潮的直接因素;风暴潮和天文潮汐都有半日潮现象。在此基础上,建立了渤海西岸风暴潮预报模型,通过台风或冷空气配合气旋影响时增水值的计算,结合天文潮汐资料,做出最高潮位预报。应用该预报方法对渤海西岸发生的7次风暴潮进行回报,预报值与实测值基本相当,是基层台站较实用的预报方法。     

大气环流与灾害性天气气候研究:黄士松先生学术成就和贡献回顾

黄士松先生出生于1920年10月27日,系我国著名的气象学家和气象教育家、新中国气象事业的奠基人之一。他从事气象科学研究六十余载,始终面向世界气象科学前沿,立足中国天气气候实际,围绕大气环流与灾害性天气气候问题,在大气环流成因、副热带高压变动规律、平流层与对流层环流联系、南北半球环流联系、东亚夏季风体系结构和暴雨台风重大灾害性天气过程等诸多研究领域取得了开创性、前瞻性和系统性成果。他提出了诸多新发现、新理论、新观点和新方法,均具有重大学术与实践指导意义,为丰富天气学、气候学及提高中国天气预报和气候预测水平作出了重要学术贡献。值此黄士松先生百年诞辰之际,本文从大气环流、副热带高压、东亚夏季风及暴雨和台风4个方面对先生的主要学术成就进行了回顾,以此纪念和缅怀他对气象科学的重要学术贡献。     

Synoptic Climatology of the Southern Beaufort Sea Troposphere with Comparisons to Surface Winds

Synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns drive wind forcing of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in Arctic sea ice. Synoptic typing and compositing are common techniques used to identify a limited number of prevailing weather classifications that govern a region's climate. This work investigates atmospheric circulation patterns (surface to 250?hPa) for the southern Beaufort Sea and corresponding surface wind regimes within each synoptic type. Significant changes (p?<?0.05) in relative frequencies of a number of synoptic types were attributed to declining summer sea ice. Corresponding upper-level circulation anomalies show increasingly meridional atmospheric circulation. Synoptic Types 9 and 11 were identified as key October-November-December circulation features that represent deepening of the Aleutian low with concomitant strengthening of pressure gradients over the southern Beaufort Sea. Classification of coastal-based wind observations shows a shift towards increased easterly wind forcing. A case study of surface wind data from the CCGS Amundsen (2009–2011) provided a direct example of the surface wind regime within the marginal ice zone within each synoptic type during a period of reduced Arctic sea-ice cover.     

钦州市一次春季连续性大雾气象特征分析

对2011年2月6～9日钦州市连续性大雾天气过程进行分析,结果表明：有利的大气环流形势为大雾形成提供有利天气背景;持续的东南风和适宜的风速为大雾的形成提供了有利水汽条件;与稳定度有关的物理量场及与水汽条件有关的相对湿度场对预报大雾天气有一定的指导意义;逆温层结对水汽的聚集有重要贡献。     

华北区域冰雹天气分型及云系特征

基于地面加密观测资料、FY-2E静止气象卫星观测资料和NCEP分析资料,选取2010—2012年华北区域内27次冰雹过程,按大气环流背景、主要影响系统和云系的云型特征等将其分为冷涡云系尾部型、低涡槽前型和偏北气流控制型3种类型。分析结果表明:3种天气型下冰雹对流云系特征存在差异,但90%以上的冰雹过程发生在对流云团的快速发展阶段中,降雹集中出现于准圆形或椭圆形对流云团边缘或带状对流云系的传播前沿区域,对应于云顶亮温梯度的大值区。在掌握背景环境的前提下,综合分析红外图像中对流系统的发展演变、水汽图像暗带和暗区变化等信息,对冰雹的监测和预警有一定的参考价值。定量统计分析表明,大的亮温梯度值 (不低于8 ℃/0.05°) 是辅助判断冰雹能否发生的重要参量,而当冰雹云同时具备低云顶亮温和大亮温梯度的情况下,更有利于大于10 mm大冰雹的发生。     

Large-scale environmental conditions for thunderstorm development

The large-scale environmental conditions for thunderstorm development have been studied with 40 selected synoptic processes during 1972-1983. It is shown that the thunderstorms in eastern China can be divided into two types: pre-trough and post-trough. The convective instability before the pre-trough thunderstorms is established primarily by the dry and moist differential advection and that before the post-trough thunderstorms by the cold and warm differential advection. The subsynoptic scale circulation has direct effects on the establishment and release of instability. The pre-trough thunderstorms occur in the overlapping region of the ascending motion in the upper baroclinic waves and the ascending branch of the low-level jet strong wind core circulation and the post-trough thunderstorms occur in the lower convergent region below the ascending branch of the jet-front circulation. The effect of the lower dry and warm lids, the coupling of the low-and upper-level jets and the dry advection in the middle-level jet are the favorable factors for the severe storm formation.     

2001年台风暴雨的分析

利用常规资料、HLAFS格点资料和GMS－5静止卫星红外云图，对2001年我国台风暴雨的天气气候特征、热带低压造成的“8.5”上海特大暴雨及0103号台风“榴莲”的强暴雨形成的物理条件进行了诊断分析研究，并探讨了动力学、热力学和大气层结稳定度等物理因子在这两次强暴雨过程中的主要作用。分析结果对实时预报业务和科研工作有一定启示意义。     

2009年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾

2009年初欧洲遭遇罕见寒流,大雪低温造成多人死亡;南半球夏季,高温热浪导致澳大利亚发生严重火灾,上百人丧生火海;9月,台风"凯萨娜"先后袭击菲律宾和越南,造成近500万人受灾;11月,飓风"艾达"袭击美洲多国,导致20多万人受灾;秋末冬初,北半球中高纬多地经历严寒天气,创下降雪偏早新纪录。在我国,强台风"莫拉克"重创台湾;50年来最严重春旱困扰黑龙江、内蒙古等地;50年罕见秋旱灼伤南方大地;11月,罕见强对流天气侵袭我国7省。2009年是1850年有气象记录以来第5个高温年,全球极端天气和气候灾害频发。     

A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period

Summary A comparison of 8 regional atmospheric model systems was carried out for a three-month late summer/early autumn period in 1995 over the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. All models were configured on a common grid using similar surface and lateral boundary conditions, and ran in either data assimilation mode (short term forecasts plus data assimilation), forecast mode (short term forecasts initialised daily with analyses) or climate mode (no re-initialisation of model interior during entire simulation period). Model results presented in this paper were generally post processed as daily averaged quantities, separate for land and sea areas when relevant. Post processed output was compared against available analyses or observations of cloud cover, precipitation, vertically integrated atmospheric specific humidity, runoff, surface radiation and near surface synoptic observations. The definition of a common grid and lateral forcing resulted in a high degree of agreement among the participating model results for most cases. Models operated in climate mode generally displayed slightly larger deviations from the observations than the data assimilation or forecast mode integration, but in all cases synoptic events were well captured. Correspondence to near surface synoptic quantities was good. Significant disagreement between model results was shown in particular for cloud cover and the radiative properties, average precipitation and runoff. Problems with choosing appropriate initial soil moisture conditions from a common initial soil moisture field resulted in a wide range of evaporation and sensible heat flux values during the first few weeks of the simulations, but better agreement was shown at later times. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001     

The Little Ice Age climate of New Zealand reconstructed from Southern Alps cirque glaciers: a synoptic type approach

Little Ice Age (LIA) austral summer temperature anomalies were derived from palaeoequilibrium line altitudes at 22 cirque glacier sites across the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Modern analog seasons with temperature anomalies akin to the LIA reconstructions were selected, and then applied in a sampling of high-resolution gridded New Zealand climate data and global reanalysis data to generate LIA climate composites at local, regional and hemispheric scales. The composite anomaly patterns assist in improving our understanding of atmospheric circulation contributions to the LIA climate state, allow an interrogation of synoptic type frequency changes for the LIA relative to present, and provide a hemispheric context of the past conditions in New Zealand. An LIA summer temperature anomaly of ?0.56 °C (±0.29 °C) for the Southern Alps based on palaeo-equilibrium lines compares well with local tree-ring reconstructions of austral summer temperature. Reconstructed geopotential height at 1,000 hPa (z1000) suggests enhanced southwesterly flow across New Zealand occurred during the LIA to generate the terrestrial temperature anomalies. The mean atmospheric circulation pattern for summer resulted from a crucial reduction of the ‘HSE’-blocking synoptic type (highs over and to the west of NZ; largely settled conditions) and increases in both the ‘T’- and ‘SW’-trough synoptic types (lows passing over NZ; enhanced southerly and southwesterly flow) relative to normal. Associated land-based temperature and precipitation anomalies suggest both colder- and wetter-than-normal conditions were a pervasive component of the base climate state across New Zealand during the LIA, as were colder-than-normal Tasman Sea surface temperatures. Proxy temperature and circulation evidence were used to corroborate the spatially heterogeneous Southern Hemisphere composite z1000 and sea surface temperature patterns generated in this study. A comparison of the composites to climate mode archetypes suggests LIA summer climate and atmospheric circulation over New Zealand was driven by increased frequency of weak El Niño-Modoki in the tropical Pacific and negative Southern Annular Mode activity.     

广州地区强对流天气的统计特征和分类特征

本文应用广州中心气象台1984—1986年"强对流天气监测与临近预报试验"资料,分析讨论连续数日发生强对流天气的条件概率及其发生范围,指出广州地区的强对流天气灾害主要是2—3天的系统性天气过程引起的。同时在前一天有无强对流天气的发生,对当天发生强对流天气与否的概率有显著不同。文章还以对流层水平风的垂直切变为标准将强对流天气分为二类四型,并逐型分析其发生的天气背景、稳定度指标、强对流天气发生频率的月际变化和日变化,指出各型强对流天气的卫星云图特征,为强对流天气的临近预报提供思路和方法。