大渡河流域积雪特征及其与气候要素和径流的关系

利用MOD10A2遥感影像提取大渡河流域2010~2014年积雪覆盖数据,结合水文气象站点数据分析了大渡河流域积雪时空分布特征及气象因子-积雪面积-径流之间的关系。结果表明:年平均积雪面积最大的是康定,最小的是泸定。积雪在冬季最大,夏季积雪最少。积雪面积变化随月份起伏明显,积雪过程集中在10月到次年4月。降水和气温变化较一致,其峰值滞后于积雪面积峰值。积雪和气温、降水的相关性表明,积雪面积与气温、降水呈负相关,且气温与积雪面积相关性更大。径流的变化具有周期性,5月开始迅速增大,7月达到最大值。径流和积雪以及气象因子的相关性分析表明,径流与积雪面积呈负相关,与气温和降水都是正相关,且径流与降水相关性更大。      

Physical mechanisms of European winter snow cover variability and its relationship to the NAO

Annual snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased in the past two decades, an effect associated with global warming. The regional scale changes of snow cover during winter, however, vary significantly from one region to another. In the present study, snow cover variability over Europe and its connection to other atmospheric variables was investigated using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The evolution of atmospheric variables related to each CSEOF mode of snow cover variability was derived via regression analysis in CSEOF space. CSEOF analysis clearly shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is related to European snow cover, particularly in January and February. A negative NAO phase tends to result in a snow cover increases, whereas a positive NAO phase results in snow cover decreases. The temporal changes in the connection between the NAO and European snow cover are explained by time-dependent NAO-related temperature anomalies. If the NAO phase is negative, the temperature is lower in Europe and snow cover increases; by contrast, when the NAO phase is positive, the temperature is higher and snow cover decreases. Temperature and snow cover variations in Europe are associated with the thermal advection by anomalous wind by NAO. CSEOF analysis also shows an abrupt increase of snow cover in December and January and a decrease in February and March since the year 2000, approximately. This abrupt change is associated with sub-seasonal variations of atmospheric circulation in the study region.     

中国近50a积雪变化时空特征

利用1961～2012年中国1400个站点逐日积雪增量、积雪日数和气温稳定通过0℃日数资料,对我国积雪时空变化特征进行了分析研究。结果表明：我国积雪主要分布在新疆北部地区、东北和内蒙古东北部地区及青藏高原地区,年积雪增量均超过50era;在年代际变化中,1991～2000年我国大部分地区积雪增量偏少;在对我国5个区域的趋势分析中,新疆北部地区、东北和内蒙古东北部地区积雪量有显著增加趋势,积雪日数的变化趋势均不显著,气温稳定通过0oC日数均呈显著减少。     

北半球积雪监测诊断业务系统

利用卫星遥感和常规观测的积雪资料，确定了适合业务使用的北半球及中国积雪监测诊断方法，并初步建立了北半球和中国积雪监测业务。其相关业务产品主要有：北半球月积雪日数、中国月积雪日数、积雪深度的分布，北半球、欧亚、中国等不同区域积雪面积距平指数。     

中国西部积雪类型划分

利用中国105°E以西地区189个地面气象台站1960-2004年积雪日资料和1981-2004年SMMR、SSM/Ⅰ反演的逐日雪深资料,使用积雪年际变率方法划分中国西部积雪类型,并与积雪日数方法的划分结果进行比较.在此基础上,尝试建立了结合以上两种要素的综合分类指标.利用积雪年际变率方法和台站资料,将中国西部积雪划分为3类.其中,稳定积雪区主要包括北疆、天山和青藏高原东部高海拔山区;年周期性不稳定积雪区包括南疆和东疆盆地周边、河西走廊、青海北部、青藏高原中西部、藏南谷地以及青藏高原东南缘;其他积雪区均为非年周期性不稳定积雪区.气候突变后,积雪日数方法划分的积雪类型变化反映出沙漠和低纬度地区积雪变幅增大,在积雪年际变率方法的结果中体现出青藏高原东部地区趋于稳定的积雪面积在增加.在没有台站记录地区,卫星遥感资料很大程度上弥补了台站观测的缺陷,使用这种资料划分积雪类型时,积雪年际变率方法比积雪日数方法的结果更符合西部积雪的分布特点,反映出积雪分布与地形的密切关系.利用综合分类指标划分西部积雪类型的结果表明,台站资料的划分结果很大程度上受积雪持续时间的影响,而在卫星遥感结果中,积雪年际变率则是影响类型划分的主要因素.     

阿尔山地区积雪变化特征

选取阿尔山气象站1981—2015年冷季(10月—次年4月)气象资料,利用滑动平均、线性倾向估计和Mann-Kendall等方法,对年最大积雪深度、积雪日数、气温和降水量进行分析。结果表明,阿尔山地区年最大积雪深度主要发生在1月至3月,其中2月份概率最大,达50%;34 a内最大积雪深度呈上升趋势(2.77 cm/10a),年平均增加0.98%,且年最大积雪深度在1998年发生了突变,即在1998年之前增长缓慢,在2000年以后上升趋势显著。积雪日数的统计分析表明,初始积雪日数和有效积雪日数呈现略微减少趋势,而稳定积雪日数有微弱的增加趋势;通常初始积雪日数比有效积雪日数大30天左右。年最大积雪深度与稳定积雪时期的降水量、积雪日数、日照时数有显著的相关性,相关系数分别为0.647、0.515、0.584,但与稳定积雪时期的气温没有明显的相关性。在全球变暖的大环境下,积雪深度随着降水量和日照时数的增加而增加,且积雪深度受降水量的影响大于日照时数的影响。     

伊犁地区近35年冬季积雪变化特征分析

通过对伊犁地区8个气象地面观测站35a(1971—2005年)11—3月逐旬的冬季最大积雪深度、积雪日数、降水量和平均温度的统计分析,结果表明:伊犁地区冬季降雪的时间、空间分布不均,最大降雪发生在新源;平均雪深最大的是伊宁县,最小的是特克斯县;冬季积雪日数变化相对比较稳定;冬季降雪与平均温度存在着很好的响应关系。在SPSS中对冬季的平均温度与平均降水和平均雪深进行相关分析,发现平均雪深、平均温度和平均降水为显著正相关。     

1959-2003年中国天山积雪的变化

Mcteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover.The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic.The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data.The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44℃/10a.The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79℃/10a.The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years,and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003.The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976.The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu(Kunes)(39.3%)and Nilka(39.7%)in the west Tiansban Mountains.In contrast,the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains.There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover.In addition,snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly,however,there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

Snow Cover Variation in the Past 45 Years (1959-2003) in the Tianshan Mountains, China

 Meteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover. The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic. The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data. The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10 a. The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79 ℃/10 a. The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years, and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003. The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976. The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu (Kunes) (39.3%) and Nilka (39.7%) in the west Tianshan Mountains. In contrast, the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains. There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover. In addition, snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly, however, there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

Numerical Simulation of the Evolution of Snow Cover and Its Sensitivity Experiments

By using Comprehensive Land Surface Model (CLSM), three snow cases, i.e., France Col de Porte 1993/1994, 1994/1995 and BOREAS SSA-OJP 1994/1995, were simulated. The simulated results were compared with the observations to examine the capability of the model to describe the evolutions of snow cover under two different land cover conditions. Several sensitivity experiments were performed to investigate the effects of the parameterization schemes of some snow cover internal processes and vegetation on the model results. Results suggest that the CLSM simulates the basic processes of snow cover accurately and describes the features of snow cover evolutions reasonably, indicating that the model has the potential to model the processes related to the snow cover evolution. It is also found that the different parameterization schemes of the snowfall density and snow water holding capacity have significant effects on the simulation of snow cover. The estimation of snowfall density mainly impacts the simulated snow depth, and the underestimation (overestimation) of the snowfall density increases (decreases) the snow depth simulated significantly but with little effect on the simulated snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameterization of the snow water holding capacity plays a crucial role in the evolution of snow cover, especially in the ablation of snow cover. Larger snow water holding capacity usually leads to larger snow density and heat capacity by storing more liquid water in the snow layer, and makes the temperature of snow cover and the snow ablation vary more slowly. To a smaller snow water holding capacity, contrary is the case. The results also show that the physical processes related to the snow cover variation are different, which are dependent on the vegetation existed. Vegetation plays an important role in the evolution of soil-snow system by changing the energy balance at the snow-soil surface. The existence of vegetation is favorable to the maintenance of snow cover and delays the increase of underlying soil temperature.     

我国西部地区冬季雪盖遥感和变化分析

用改进的甚高分辩率扫描辐射仪(AVHRR)资料,在多光谱判识的基础上提取积雪信息的计算方法,并由此得到积雪遥感动态监测结果;同时,利用我国短时间序列的积雪资料,统计计算了新疆、内蒙古、青海、西藏和东北地区冬季积雪覆盖率,分析了我国西部地区积雪覆盖特征和变化规律;补充了常规气象台站对我国西部地区积雪监测和分析的不足.     

基于地面观测数据的天山典型区积雪时间特征研究

利用1981-1996年新疆天山地区16个气象台站的积雪观测资料,研究天山典型区积雪初始、终止日期的时空分布特征及影响因素。研究结果表明,受水热状况及复杂地形影响,研究区内自西向东,自北向南积雪初始日期逐渐推后,终止日期逐渐提前。9月末,天山海拔较高的地区开始积雪,11月上旬至12月上旬积雪迅速发展;天山中部和北部的积雪会持续到3月下旬,而海拔较高的台站则会持续到5月份,甚至6月份;天山南坡初日较晚,2月积雪就会终止。天山地区的积雪初始和终止日期年际波动较大,并呈现出积雪初日越来越晚,积雪期逐年缩短的趋势。随着海拔升高,气象台站积雪初日逐渐提前,积雪终日逐渐推后,形成倒三角形状,对积雪初始、终止日期和经、纬度的分析表明,其主要受纬度影响。天山南、北坡水热条件不一致,高度每上升100m,天山北坡积雪初日提前2.18d,终日推迟3.25d;天山南坡积雪初日提前3.69d,终日推迟3.18d。     

Improved Assimilation of Fengyun-3 Satellite-Based Snow Cover Fraction in Northeastern China

Assimilation of snow cover is an important method to improve the accuracy of snow simulation. However, the effects of snow assimilation are poor because satellite observed snow cover data contain erroneous information, such as cloud contamination. In this paper, an improved approach is proposed to reduce the effects of observational errors during assimilation of snow cover fraction acquired by the Fengyun-3(FY-3) satellite in northeastern China. A snow depth constraint was imposed on quality control of a snow depth product from a microwave radiation imager. The assimilation experiments were carried out before and after quality control(denoted as SCFDA and SCFDA_WSD, respectively). The snow cover fraction results were evaluated against the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) snow cover products. When assimilating the snow cover fraction with the snow depth constraint(i.e., SCFDA_WSD), substantially larger improvement was obtained than that without such a constraint/quality control(SCFDA), and the deviation and root mean square error of the snow cover fraction were significantly reduced.The assimilation performance was also evaluated against in-situ snow depth observations. The SCFDA_WSD also showed greater improvements during the snow accumulation and snowmelt periods than the SCFDA. The SCFDA_WSD improvements in woodland and shrubland were the most obvious. At different altitudes, the effects of the SCFDA_WSD were basically equivalent, and the deeper the snow depth was, the better the effect. In addition, the SCFDA_WSD method was found in close agreement with the observations during a sudden snowfall event.     

Tendencies in precipitation pH dynamics in the Russian Far East

The results of studies of an acid-base indicator of the snow cover pH in the Primorskii krai for 2004–2005 are analyzed. Long-term observations of precipitation pH in the Russian Far East region are also considered. The results of studies of the snow cover pH of 2005 differed from the earlier data by the lower values of the acid-base indicator. Synoptic analysis demonstrated that acid precipitation in the Primorskii krai could be due to long-range transboundary pollution transport from Central China. The tendency towards a decrease in the precipitation pH values over most of the Far East region is traced from long-term observations, which under conditions of the general economy recession and population decrease can be attributed to transboundary transport of acid precipitation.     

青藏高原南、北积雪异常与中国东部夏季降水关系的数值试验研究

青藏高原冬、春积雪有着显著的南、北空间差异,本文利用通用地球系统模式（CESM）设计了增加高原南、北冬、春积雪的敏感性试验,结果表明:当高原南部冬、春积雪异常偏多,长江及其以北地区夏季降水偏多,华南大部分地区夏季降水偏少;而当高原北部冬、春积雪异常偏多,华北及东北地区夏季降水偏多,长江下游南部地区夏季降水偏少,雨带更偏北。青藏高原南、北部冬、春积雪异常影响中国东部夏季降水的物理机制的分析结果表明,高原不同区域（南部和北部）冬、春积雪异常引起的非绝热加热异常效应都可持续到夏季,且北部积雪异常持续时间更长。高原南部和北部积雪异常偏多均会减弱高原北侧上空大气的水平温度梯度,进而减弱高原北侧西风急流的位置及强度,进而影响下游出口区处急流的强度和位置,且高原北部积雪异常偏多的影响更大。当高原南部积雪异常偏多,急流出口区的西风急流加强且偏南;而高原北部积雪异常偏多,出口区的西风急流减弱且偏北。相应地,对流层中层500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压减弱,低层850 hPa异常反气旋环流,影响中国东部地区水汽输送,从而影响了中国东部地区夏季雨带的变化。当高原南部积雪异常偏多,异常反气旋性环流位于东海附近,有利于更多水汽输送至长江流域,华南水汽输送减少;当高原北部积雪异常偏多,异常反气旋性环流相对偏北,更有利于华北及东北水汽输送,雨带偏北。     

卫星反演积雪信息的研究进展

综合分析了积雪信息反演的主要遥感信息源和提取方法。在光学遥感方面,应用较广的主要是改进型甚高分辨率扫描辐射仪（AVHRR）资料和中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）资料;提取积雪信息大多是根据积雪在可见光波段的高反射率和近红外波段的低反射率,并通过建立回归模型反演积雪面积和深度。由于传感器的改进,MODIS卫星资料在空间分辨率、积雪反演算法等方面明显优于AVHRR资料。光学仪器受云层和大气的影响很大,由于云和积雪在可见光和近红外波段上都具有高反射率。并且由于云层的遮挡。云下的地表信息不能被光学遥感仪器所接收到。微波遥感方面,被动微波遥感仪如微波辐射计成像仪（SSM／I）、高级微波扫描辐射计（AMSR—E）等可以全天候穿过云层进行监测,具有光学仪器所没有的优势,并通过提取地表的亮温差,建立雪深反演模型得到积雪深度。被动微波传感器存在分辨率低。无法监测浅雪区信息等问题。另外影响地表微波亮温的因素很多,这些都在一定程度上影响了反演结果的精确度。主动微波遥感仪如合成孔径雷达、微波散射计等利用积雪与其它地物的后向散射系数的不同来识别积雪,但也同样存在分辨率低等问题。最后探讨了卫星反演积雪信息中仍然存在的问题和进一步发展的方向。     

冬季积雪对我国夏季降水预测的评估分析

根据高原积雪和高纬积雪与我国夏季降水相关分析的结果，将高原积雪和高纬积雪作为独立因子分别对我国夏季降水预测做了检验，结果表明：高原积雪较高纬积雪效果要好，冬季高原积雪异常偏多时，长江流域夏季易发生洪涝，这也是预测汛期降水的一个重要信号。     

Parametrization schemes of incident radiation in the North Water polynya

Abstract

An evaluation of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) 3.1 snow cover simulations at four sites included in the Snow Model Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP) revealed that CLASS was able to provide realistic representations of snow cover accumulation, melt and physical properties over a range of snow cover climates. The modified snow aging parametrization in CLASS 3.1 provided improved simulations of snowpack density which resulted in a marked reduction in the root‐mean‐square (rms) error for daily snow depth, and slight improvements in snow surface temperature. CLASS 3.1 still exhibited a tendency to overestimate snow cover duration which is attributed to the way shallow snow ablation is treated. CLASS provided generally realistic simulations of daily and seasonal variation in snow albedo although cold snow albedo was underpredicted by 0.10 to 0.15 at a site with a deep (> 2 m) cold snowpack. CLASS also exhibited a tendency to overpredict late spring snow albedo which was reduced by the addition of a snow layer subroutine that kept track of snow albedo by precipitation event. CLASS had a noticeable cold bias averaging 3°–4°C at two mountain sites included in the comparison. The bias was closely linked to atmospheric stability and could exceed 10°C under conditions of strong radiative cooling and low wind speeds. The CLASS energy deficit under these conditions was determined to be ～20–40 W m^?2 and was mostly accounted for by introducing a windless exchange coefficient into the calculation of sensible heat fluxes following the approach used in a number of other physical snowpack models. CLASS provided realistic simulations of daily snowmelt runoff with the exception of the Weissfluhjoch site which was characterized by a deep cold snowpack. A preliminary assessment of snow water equivalent (SWE) rms error for the 23 models participating in SnowMIP showed that CLASS was one of the better single layer snow models included in the comparison. CLASS performance was comparable to the multi‐layer CROCUS snowpack model in the evaluations carried out in this study.     

1959-2003年中国天山积雪的变化

利用天山山区17个气象站1959-2003年的气象观测资料,分析了中国天山山区冬季（12-2月）气温、积雪变化趋势特征, 并采用Mann-Kendall统计量对最大积雪深度的变化进行了突变检验,通过GIDS插值方法和DEM数据计算了它的空间分布。结果表明,天山山区冬季平均气温存在明显的上升趋势,倾向率为0.44℃/10 a,与北半球冬季平均气温的变化有着较好的相关性,最低气温的增加更为明显,其倾向率为0.79℃/10 a。45 a来天山山区最大积雪深度具有明显的增加趋势,倾向率为1.15 cm/10 a,检测表明,最大积雪深度在1977年前后发生了突变;与多年平均相比,积雪深度增加幅度最大的是西天山地区的昭苏、尼勒克,分别增加了39.3%和39.7%。天山山区积雪变化以2.8 a左右的周期为主。另外,积雪日数的增加主要出现在≥10 cm的积雪深度上;积雪初、终日期并没有表现出明显的提前或推迟。     

青海南部冬季积雪和雪灾变化的特征

利用1961-2005年青海南部牧区气象台站观测的气温、降水、积雪资料,用气候诊断方法分析了该地区积雪等气候要素的年代际演变特征以及雪灾变化的成因。结果表明：20世纪60-90年代冬季青海南部牧区中雪和大雪出现的站次以及雪灾出现的站次有逐步增多的趋势,降雪量和地表平均积雪量每10 a分别增加1. 253 mm和8.246 cm,单站积雪量在海拔4100 m左右的高度上增加比较明显,其变化是由气候的年代际波动引起的。