Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for Turkey

Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council (ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic hazard for Turkey.     

Extracting damages caused by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake from SAR remote sensing data

Bad weather conditions usually limit the acquisition of optical remote sensing images, while all day and all weather synthetic aperture radar (SAR) shows the ability of providing timely remote sensing data for emergency response and rescue works after earthquake. Because SAR is sensitive to the surface changes caused by earthquake, the modified electromagnetic behaviour by geological disasters and the collapse of buildings can be recorded in SAR images as backscattering intensity changes. Absolute radiometric calibration was performed to SAR products to derive backscattering coefficient sigma nought from image digital number (DN). Based on change detection methods, Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data and TerraSAR-X data acquired for the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake were used to extract earthquake damage information. This study revealed that landslides showed stronger backscattering and barrier lakes showed lower backscattering in post-earthquake 10 m ALOS PALSAR images comparing to pre-earthquake, and collapsed buildings showed lower backscattering compared to un-collapsed buildings in 1 m TerraSAR-X image. Results showed that SAR data with different spatial resolutions are useful for different earthquake damage information extraction: medium spatial resolution SAR data, e.g. 10 m ALOS PALSAR data, were efficient for secondary geological disaster extraction; high-resolution SAR data, e.g. 1 m TerraSAR-X data, with the help of ancillary GIS data or high-resolution optical data, could be used to extract building collapse information in urban areas. This study indicates that SAR remote sensing data can provide earthquake damage information at early emergency stage and assist the field surveying, further damage assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction.     

Impact of local site conditions on portfolio earthquake loss estimation for different building types

This article presents a sensitivity analysis investigating the impact of using high-resolution site conditions databases in portfolio earthquake loss estimation. This article also estimates the effects of variability in the site condition databases on probabilistic earthquake loss ratios and their geographical pattern with respect to structural characteristics of different building types. To perform the earthquake loss estimation here, the OpenQuake software developed by Global Earthquake Model is implemented in Clemson University’s supercomputer. The probabilistic event-based risk analysis is employed considering several notional portfolios of different building types in the San Francisco area as the inventory exposure. This analysis produces the stochastic event sets worth for 10,000 years including almost 8000 synthetically simulated earthquakes. Then, the ground motion prediction equations are used to calculate the ground motion per event and incorporate the effect of five site conditions, on amplifying or de-amplifying the ground motions on notional building exposure locations. Notional buildings are used to account for various building characteristics in conformance with the building taxonomy represented in HAZUS software. The HAZUS damage functions are applied to model the vulnerability of various structural types of buildings. Finally, the 50-year average mean loss and probabilistic loss for multiple values for probability of exceedance (2, 10, 20, and 40%) in 50 years are calculated, and the impact of different site condition databases on portfolio loss ratios is investigated for different structural types and heights of buildings. The results show the aggregated and geographical variation of loss and loss ratio throughout the region for various site conditions. Comparing the aggregated loss and loss ratio, while considering different databases, represents normalized differences that are limited to 6% for all building taxonomy with various heights and for all PoEs. However, site-specific loss ratio errors are significantly greater and in some cases are more than 20%.     

Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by Ground Shaking

One of the most critical lessons of the recent earthquakes is the need for seismic planning for lifelines, with appropriate supplies and back up systems for emergency repair and restoration. Seismic planning, however requires physical loss estimations before the earthquakes occur. Buried pipeline damage correlations are critical part of loss estimation procedures applied to lifelines for future earthquakes. We review the existing pipeline damage relationships only for ground shaking (transient ground deformations) in the light of recent developments and evaluate them with Denizli City, Turkey water supply system. Eight scenario earthquakes with four different earthquake magnitudes between M6 and M7 caused by two different fault ruptures (Pamukkale and Karakova-Akhan Faults) were used. Analyses were performed by using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). This high number of different scenario earthquakes made it possible to compare the pipeline damage relationships at different ground shaking levels. Pipeline damage estimations for Denizli City were calculated for each damage relationship and earthquake scenario. Relative effects of damage relationships and scenario earthquakes on the results were compared and discussed. The results were presented separately for brittle, ductile, and all pipelines. It was shown that the variation in ductile pipeline damage estimations by various relationships was higher than the variation in brittle pipeline damage estimations for a particular scenario earthquake.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment for Montreal

In Canada, Montreal is the second city with the highest seismic risk. This is due to its relatively high seismic hazard, old infrastructures and high population density. The region is characterised by moderate seismic activity with no recent record of a major earthquake. The lack of historical strong ground motion records for the region contributes to large uncertainties in the estimation of hazards. Among the sources of uncertainty, the attenuation function is the main contributor and its effect on estimates of risks is investigated. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggest that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. Seismic loss estimates are performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic threat, which corresponds to the design level earthquake in the national building code of Canada, using HAZUS-MH4 for the Montreal region over 522 census tracts. The study estimated that for the average scenario roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for such a scenario. The maximum number of casualties would result in approximately 500 people being injured or dead at a calculated time of occurrence of 2?pm.     

PSHA of Van province for performance assessment using spectrally matched strong ground motion records

Within the framework of the performance based earthquake engineering, site specific earthquake spectra for Van province has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region. The probabilistic seismic hazard curves were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2, 10 and 50% in 50 yrs period. The obtained results are compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code (2007), section 7. The acceleration response spectrums obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are matched to adjust earthquake accelerograms recorded during the 2011 Van earthquakes by using SeismoMatch v2.0 software. The aim of this procedure is to obtain a set of reasonable earthquake input motions for the seismic evaluation of existing buildings.     

Damage field and site effects: multidisciplinary studies of the 1964 earthquake series in Central Switzerland

Central Switzerland shows comparatively high seismic activity by Swiss standards. Many historical earthquakes are known and several of them caused damage. The last major event dates back to 1964 and has the characteristics of an earthquake swarm. Among dozens of felt shocks were two main shocks (Mw = 5 and 5.7) that moderately damaged a limited area with hundreds of buildings suffering loss. Our aim here was to reconstruct the damage field and to analyze whether it was influenced by site effects. Given the existence of a contemporary damage assessment and other historical sources, we could describe the damage field in detail. For about 95% of the affected buildings, we could reconstruct the location and extent of loss, using assessments from the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98). Spatial analysis of the resulting data showed that most losses were concentrated in the villages of Sarnen and Kerns. Damage to residential houses and barns was by far most frequent (90%), but expensive losses to the relatively few sacral buildings were responsible for almost 50% of the repair costs. We compared the damage data with deposit thickness and soil composition and carried out field experiments using H/V spectral ratios to measure the fundamental frequency of ground resonance at 75 sites to estimate the frequency band in which amplification occurs. Our results show that locations on both thick fluviatile sediments and large alluvial cones showed higher intensities than did other ground types. Moreover, at some sites, intensity was probably increased by a layer of weathered rock below thin deposits.     

Buildings Damages after Elazığ, Turkey Earthquake on January 24, 2020

A 6.8-magnitude earthquake that occurred on January 24, 2020, has been effective in Turkey’s eastern regions. The earthquake, with recorded peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.292 g, caused the destruction or heavy damage of buildings, especially in the city center of Elaz?? province. The purpose of this paper was to share the results of detailed investigation in the earthquake-stricken area. Additionally, the causes of damages and failures observed in the buildings were compared to those that had occurred in previous earthquakes in Turkey. In this study, the damages observed in especially RC buildings as well as in masonry and rural buildings were summarized, the lessons learned were evaluated, and the results were interpreted with reference to Turkish earthquake codes. In the study, it was particularly emphasized why the building stock underwent such damage even though the buildings were exposed to earthquake acceleration well below the design acceleration values.

     

Modeling of damage-related earthquake losses in a moderate seismic-prone country and cost–benefit evaluation of retrofit investments: application to France

We performed large-scale earthquake economic loss estimations for France and cost–benefit analyses for several French cities by developing a semiempirical, intensity-based approach. The proposed methodology is inexpensive and easily applicable in case of a paucity of detailed information regarding the specific regional seismic hazard and the structural characteristics of the building stock, which is of particular importance in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions. The exposure model is derived from census datasets, and the seismic vulnerability distribution of buildings is calculated using data mining techniques. Several hypothetical, large-scale retrofit scenarios are proposed, with increasing levels of investment. These cities, in their respective reinforced states, are then subjected to a series of hazard scenarios. Seismic hazard data for different return periods are calculated from regulatory accelerations from French seismic zoning. Loss estimations for the original (non-reinforced) configuration show high levels of expected building repair and replacement costs for all time spans. Finally, the benefits in terms of damage avoidance are compared with the costs of each retrofit measure. Relatively limited strengthening investments reduce the probability of building collapse, which is the main cause of human casualties. However, the results of this study suggest that retrofitting is, on average, only cost-effective in the parts of France with the highest seismicity and over the longest time horizons.     

Identification and prioritization of data for collection in post-earthquake surveys

During an earthquake, buildings which are vulnerable to seismic loads will be damaged, resulting in property loss and the potential for casualties. To reduce loss of life and injury, the relationship between earthquake-induced building failure and injury severity and distribution needs to be clarified. To this end, a methodology and a series of data collection forms were developed to collect pertinent data for post-event analysis and to provide a basis for structural triage in the field shortly following an earthquake for search and rescue purposes. The forms were developed in four steps: (1) identifying the variables which affect the outcome of an occupant in a damaged building; (2) classifying the variables into three levels of priority for data collection; (3) designing the forms; and (4) applying the forms to damaged buildings from past earthquakes. These forms represent a significant departure from existing forms in that they consider both casualties and building damage jointly in a consistent format. This paper describes the first two steps of the development process; a companion paper outlines the latter components.     

Landslides triggered by the 1949 Khait earthquake, Tajikistan, and associated loss of life

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major geological hazard in Central Asia. In July 1949, the M7.4 Khait earthquake triggered many hundreds of landslides in a mountainous region near the southern limit of the Tien Shan Mountains, central Tajikistan. These landslides involved widespread rock-slope failure as well as large numbers of flowslides in loess that mantles the steep slopes of the region. In the Yasman valley hundreds of loess landslides coalesced to form a massive loess flow (est. vol. 245 Mm³) that travelled up to 20 km on a slope of only 2°. In an adjacent valley, the Khait landslide involved transformation of an earthquake-triggered rockslide into a very rapid flow by the entrainment of saturated loess into its movement. It travelled 7.41 km over a vertical distance of 1421 m with an estimated average velocity of ~30 m/s. We estimate its volume as 75 Mm³, an order of magnitude less that previously published estimates. The Khait landslide was simulated using DAN. The number of casualties due to earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region was considerable. Approximately 4000 people were killed in the Yasman valley loess flow as 20 villages (kishlaks) were overwhelmed. In the Khait landslide alone we estimate ca. 800 people lost their lives when the villages of Khait and Khisorak were overrun by rapidly moving debris. Our data indicates that a total of approximately 7200 people were killed by earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region of the Khait earthquake and that, in terms of loss of life, the 1949 Yasman valley loess flow was one of the most destructive landslides in recent history.     

Regional economic impact analysis of earthquakes in northern Taiwan and its implications for disaster reduction policies

The direct damage caused by earthquakes, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operations and disrupt the function of the industrial chain. Such economic impacts can be evaluated using the input–output analysis developed by Leontief. In this paper, two scenario earthquakes in northern Taiwan both with a return period of 475 years—the Hsinchu Hsincheng and the Yilan Nan-ao earthquakes—are simulated. The results show that the economic impact caused by the Hsincheng earthquake is greater than that resulting from the Nan-ao earthquake, which should be the major scenario considered for the disaster reduction plan. The industries affected the most are the manufacturing, food services and entertainment, storage and retail trade, and public and construction industries. The Nan-ao earthquake causes relatively more losses in the food services and entertainment industries. Most of the repercussion effects of these industries are in the central and southern parts of Taiwan. The loss to the manufacturing sector and its repercussion effects are enormous. Therefore, the government should make it a first priority to encourage the manufacturing sector to implement earthquake mitigations, such as a seismic retrofit, or to provide a seismic evaluation, which can enable firms to engage in mitigation voluntarily. The measure needed to reduce the loss in agriculture is that the government can purchase agricultural products in central and southern Taiwan following the disaster and offer them to survivors in northern Taiwan.     

Seismic risk assessment of buildings in urban areas: a case study for Denizli,Turkey

This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.     

Recent trends on glacier area retreat over the group of Nevados Caullaraju-Pastoruri (Cordillera Blanca,Peru) using Landsat imagery

The Cordillera Blanca, located in the central zone of the Andes Mountains in Peru, has shown a retreat in its glaciers. This paper presents a trend analysis of the glacier area over the groups of Nevados Caullaraju-Pastoruri from 1975 to 2010 using Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. In the case of the Nevados Pastoruri/Tuco, the study period was extended back to 1957 by using an aerial photograph taken that year. The extent of clean glacier ice was estimated using Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) thresholds. Moreover, the estimation of debris-covered glacier ice was retrieved by means of a decision tree classification method using NDSI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST). Area estimations derived from Landsat imagery were compared to the glacier ground-truth data in 1975 and 2010. Results show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing trend over the whole study area. Total glacier area decreased at a rate of 4.5 km² per decade from 1975 to 2010, with a total loss of 22.5 km² (58%). Lower decreasing rates were found for the period 1987–2010: 3.5 km² per decade with a total loss of 7.7 km² (32.5%). In the case of the Nevados Pastoruri/Tuco, decreasing rates of clean ice extent were constant for the periods 1957–2010, 1975–2010 and 1987–2010, with values close to 1.4 km² per decade and a total loss between 1957 and 2010 estimated at about 5 km² (54%). This work shows an evident area decrease in the Caullaraju-Pastoruri tropical glaciers, which needs to be included in a future hydrological scenario of local adaptability and water management.     

Risk assessment of Tunguska-type airbursts

The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km² in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth’s surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similar-sized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of ~USD 200,000/year, a rate of ~0.3 fatalities/year and ~1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this “nightmare” scenario would lead to ~USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, ~3.9 millions of fatalities and ~4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every ~30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.     

Estimating location and size of historical earthquake by combining archaeology and geology in Umm-El-Qanatir,Dead Sea Transform

We study the Byzantine-to-Ummayad (6th–8th century) archaeological site of Umm-El-Qanatir, located 10 km east of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in northern Israel. The site was damaged by an earthquake-induced landslide, and in this work we use slope stability analysis to constrain the historical seismic acceleration that occurred along the northern segment of the DST. Umm-El-Qanatir archaeological site is located on a slope of a canyon and contains evidence for earthquake-related damage, including fallen columns and walls, horizontal shift of heavy masonry blocks, and complete burial of ceramic pots and farming tools beneath fallen ceilings. A water pool that collected spring water is displaced nearly one meter by the landslide. The artifacts from the village and the spring area indicate that people inhabited the site until the middle of the 8th century. We argue that the destruction, which forced the abandonment of Umm-El-Qanatir together with nearby settlements, was associated with the earthquake of January 18, 749 CE. In order to evaluate the ground acceleration related to the above earthquake, we back-analyze the stability of a failed slope, which cut and displaced the water-pool, using slope stability software (Slope/W). The results show that the slope is statically stable and that high values of horizontal seismic acceleration (>0.3 g) are required to induce slope failure. Subsequently, we use the Newmark displacement method to calculate the earthquake magnitude needed to cause the slope failure as a function of distance from the site. The results (attributed to the 749 CE earthquake) show that a M_W > 7.0 earthquake up to 25 km from the site could have induced the studied landslide.     

Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany

Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures. The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is performed.     

The velocity structure of the Cariaco sedimentary basin,northeastern Venezuela,from refraction seismic data and possible relationship to earthquake hazard

The main damage from the July 9, 1997, Cariaco earthquake (Ms=6.8) was concentrated in the town of Cariaco and surrounding villages, which are located in the western part of the Cariaco sedimentary basin, close to the Gulf of Cariaco. Casanay, located at the eastern end of the sedimentary basin, suffered considerably less damage. The El Pilar fault, a right-lateral strike-slip fault that generated the earthquake, runs parallel to the southern border of the valley and crosses both towns. The determination of the velocity structure of the basin is the main objective of this study. Seismic refraction data were recorded along three lines, one of them along-strike and two perpendicular to the valley axis in the northern and southern bedrocks. Beneath Cariaco, approximately 1 km thick Quaternary sediments with seismic velocities of 1.9–2.1 km/s and bedrock velocities of more than 4 km/s were observed. The thickness of the Quaternary sediments varies within the basin, and Pleistocene sediments outcrop beneath Casanay. The increased thickness of the unconsolidated, water-saturated Quaternary sediments, together with the difference in the quality of buildings prior to the earthquake, probably is responsible for the damage pattern of the Cariaco earthquake.     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Improving the level of seismic hazard parameters in Saudi Arabia using earthquake location

Saudi Arabia is characterized as largely aseismic; however, the tectonic plate boundaries that surround it are very active. To improve characterization of seismicity and ground motion hazard, the Saudi Arabian Digital Seismic Network (SANDSN) was installed in 1998 and continues to be operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This article describes research performed to improve seismic hazard parameters using earthquake location and magnitude calibration of the high-quality SANDSN data. The SANDSN consists of 38 seismic stations, 27 broadband, and 11 short period. All data are telemetered in real time to a central facility at KACST in Riyadh. The SANDSN stations show low background noise levels and have good signal detection capabilities; however, some stations show cultural noise at frequencies above 1.0 Hz. We assessed the SANDSN event location capabilities by comparing KACST locations with well-determined locations derived from ground truth or global observations. While a clear location bias exists when using the global average iasp91 earth model, the locations can be improved by using regional models optimized for different tectonic source regions. The article presents detailed analysis of some events and Dead Sea explosions where we found gross errors in estimated locations. New velocity models we calculated that should improve estimated locations of regional events in three specific regions include (1) Gulf of Aqabah—Dead Sea region, (2) Arabian Shield, and (3) Arabian Platform. Recently, these models were applied to the SANDSN to improve local and teleseismic event locations and to develop an accurate magnitude scale for Saudi Arabia. The Zagros Thrust presents the most seismic hazard to eastern Saudi Arabia because of the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Although these events are 200 km or further from the Arabian coast, wave propagation through sedimentary structure of the Gulf causes long-duration ground motions for periods between 3 and 10 s. Such ground motions could excite response in large engineered structures (e.g., tall buildings and long bridges) such as was experienced after the November 22, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake off the southern coast of Iran.