A 602-year Reconstruction of July-June Streamflow in the Kuqa River, China, Reveals the Changing Hydrological Signals of the Tarim Basin

A regional tree-ring width chronology of Schrenk spruce(Picea schrenkiana) was used to determine the annual(previous July to current June) streamflow of the Kuqa River in Xinjiang, China, for the period of 1414–2015. A linear transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 63.9% of the total variance when regressed against instrumental streamflow during 1957–2006. The model was validated by comparing the regression estimates against independent data. High streamflow periods with a streamflow above the 602-year mean occurred from 1430–1442, 1466–1492, 1557–1586, 1603–1615, 1687–1717, 1748–1767, 1795–1819, 1834–1856, 1888–1910 and 1989–2015. Low streamflow periods(streamflow below the mean) occurred from 1419–1429, 1443–1465, 1493–1556, 1587–1602, 1616–1686, 1720–1747, 1768–1794, 1820–1833, 1857–1887 and 1911–1988. The reconstruction compares well with the tree-ring-based streamflow series of the Tizinafu River from the Kunlun Mountains; both show well-known severe drought events. The streamflow reconstruction also shows highly synchronous upward trends since the 1980 s, suggesting that streamflow is related to Central Asian warming and humidification. Thus, the influences of the extremes and the persistence of low streamflows on local society may be considerable. Climatic changes in the watershed may be responsible for the change in the hydrologic regime of the Tarim Basin observed during the late twentieth century.     

An 810‐year history of cold season temperature variability for northern Poland

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is a widely used tree species in European dendroclimatology studies due to its common distribution across much of the continent. Almost all studies find radial growth strongly related to summer temperature, a result reflecting site selection at high elevation/latitude environments where trees grow at their ecophysiological limits. Due to the amount of attention spent on these sites there is a geographical and seasonal bias in temperature reconstructions based upon tree‐ring proxies in Europe. To overcome the limited availability of tree‐ring data in temperate lowlands, we present a northern Poland ring‐width chronology developed from living and historic Scots pine material with a strong common growth signal going back to AD 1200. Investigations into climate‐growth relationships found year‐to‐year ring‐width variability to be more strongly correlated to cold season temperature (November to April) prior to the growing season than summer temperatures during tree‐ring formation. Based on this relationship it was possible to reconstruct cold season temperature conditions for the last 810 years. Spatial field correlations with gridded instrumental records indicated that the reconstruction provides relevant cold season temperature information across the land regions bordering the North Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea, lowlands and uplands of western and central Europe, and the eastern and central interior of Russia. Despite an unsuccessful attempt to find a stationary relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation, comparisons with several cold season temperature reconstructions confirmed the long‐term connection between our reconstructed temperature series for northern Poland and the wider area.     

A tree‐ring width based drought reconstruction for southeastern China: links to Pacific Ocean climate variability

We present a drought reconstruction for southeastern China based on a tree‐ring width chronology of Cryptomeria fortunei developed from two sampling sites in central Fujian. A reconstruction of July–February drought variability, spanning AD 1855–2011, was developed by calibrating total tree‐ring width data with the self‐calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). The reconstruction was verified against an independent data set, and accounts for 36% of the actual scPDSI variance during the period 1955–2011. Relatively dry intervals were reconstructed between AD 1859–1880, 1899–1911, 1927–1933, 1946–1959, 1964–1970 and 1987–1997. Relatively wet conditions prevailed during 1855–1858, 1881–1898, 1912–1926, 1934–1945, 1960–1963, 1971–1986 and 1998–2011. Comparisons between our scPDSI reconstruction and a moisture‐sensitive tree‐ring width record from Vietnam revealed consistencies between the two data sets, suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.2–6.4 years may be indicative of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, as also suggested by the significant correlations with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean and an extreme event analysis. The analysis of links between our scPDSI reconstruction and the large‐scale regional climatic variation shows that there is a relationship between regional drought variation and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity.     

Up to 400‐year‐old Rhododendron shrubs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: prospects for shrub‐based dendrochronology

In harsh and treeless environments, shrubs constitute the dominant growth form of woody plants, thus offering the opportunity to extend dendrochronological networks beyond the uppermost and northernmost distribution limits of trees. However, shrub‐based dendrochronology has so far resulted in only a few long and climate‐responsive ring‐width chronologies at such stressful sites, particularly above the alpine tree line. A previous study on an alpine Rhododendron shrub species resulted in <80‐year‐long ring‐width chronologies. Here, we collected Rhododendron aganniphum var. schizopeplum stems from elevations between 4000 and 4500 m a.s.l. on the SE Tibetan Plateau and built six tree‐ring width chronologies. One of them is 401 years long and well replicated from AD 1670 to 2011 (EPS>0.85), thus representing the longest shrub chronology available to date. A principal component analysis (PCA) converted the total variability of all six site chronologies into PCs. Then, the six site chronologies and the PC1, accounting for 65.9% of the total variance of the tree‐ring width, were correlated with time series of monthly climate data. Based on this, the year‐to‐year variability of the ring‐width indices was positively correlated with July temperature, which thus turned out to be the dominant factor controlling growth. Accordingly, such long shrub‐ring chronologies may act as climatic and ecological proxies in treeless environments of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Characterization and assessment of the devastating natural hazards across the Canadian Prairie Provinces from 2009 to 2011

From 2009 to 2011, the Canadian Prairies were subjected to exceptionally variable precipitation regimes, ranging between record drought and unprecedented flooding. Adjacent regions concurrently experienced droughts and floods, and individual areas transitioned rapidly from pluvial to drought conditions and vice versa. Such events had major impacts; for example, damages from floods in the Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) have exceeded $1 billion, and forest fires ravaged the town of Slave Lake, Alberta. This study first characterizes, and then assesses, these devastating natural hazards in terms of their physical processes (across multiple spatial and temporal scales) related to both the spatially contrasting precipitation states and rapid temporal transitions between these states. Subtle differences in large-scale atmospheric flow had marked impacts on precipitation. Primary factors controlling the distribution and amount of precipitation included the location and persistence of key surface and upper-air features, as well as their interaction. Additionally, multiple events—rather than individual extremes—were responsible for the flooding over the Saskatchewan River Basin and the ARB. Very heavy rainfall events (≥25 mm d^?1) accounted for up to 55 % of warm season rain at some locations, and the frequency of heavy rainfall events was critical for determining whether a region experienced drought or pluvial conditions. This study has increased our knowledge of the characteristics, impacts and mechanisms of rapidly transitioning disparate precipitation states on the Canadian Prairies and will aid in better understanding both past and projected future hydro-climatic extremes in the region.     

Tree‐ring‐based annual precipitation reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,NW China: consequences for climate history on and beyond the mid‐latitude Asian continent

An annual (July to June) precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 1760–2010 was developed from a Picea crassifolia regional tree‐ring chronology from two sites in the northern mountainous region of the Hexi Corridor, NW China. This reconstruction explains 52.1% of the actual precipitation variance during the period 1951 to 2010. Spatial correlations with gridded land‐surface data reveal that our reconstruction contains a strong regional precipitation signal for the Hexi Corridor and for the southern margin of the Badain Jaran Desert. Significant spectral peaks were identified at 31.9, 11.1, 8.0, 7.0, 3.2, 2.6 and 2.2 years. A large‐scale comparison indicates that our reconstruction is more consistent with climate records of a Westerly‐dominated Central Asia, and that the Westerlies have a greater impact on the precipitation in this region than the Asian summer monsoon. Our reconstructed precipitation series is significantly correlated with sea‐surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (positive), the tropical Indian Ocean (positive), the western tropical Pacific Ocean (positive), and the western North Pacific Ocean (negative). The spatial correlation patterns between our precipitation reconstruction and SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans suggest a connection between regional precipitation variations and the high‐mid‐latitude northern atmospheric circulations (Westerlies and Asian summer monsoon).     

Early to mid‐Holocene climate change at Lago dell'Accesa (central Italy): climate signal or anthropogenic bias?

Despite the high potential of pollen records for climate reconstruction, pollen–climate relationships may be biased due to past and present human activities on the landscape. We use (i) transfer functions based on modern pollen–climate relationships to infer seasonal temperature and summer precipitation for the period 11 500–4500 cal. a BP and (ii) lake‐level change records based on different sedimentary proxies in multiple cores that are mainly indicative for summer hydrology at Lago dell'Accesa (central Italy). Quantitative reconstructions indicate lowest summer precipitation during two phases (8500–7700 cal. a BP and after 6000 cal. a BP) and a gradual winter temperature increase from 11 500 to ca. 8000 cal. a BP. Lowest summer precipitation was reconstructed during these phases characterised by vegetation shifts from open forests dominated by summergreen oaks (Quercus) to forests dominated by evergreen oaks (Quercus ilex), which are at present most abundant where summer drought is stronger. Similarly, the lake‐level record indicates two long‐lasting low summer precipitation phases (8800–7700 and 6400–4400 cal. a BP) that were interrupted by short‐term high summer precipitation events. Based on the broad agreement between the pollen‐inferred summer precipitation and the low‐frequency lake‐level changes, we suggest that the duration of the high summer precipitation events may have been too short to maintain drought‐sensitive trees, which may have been affected by high mortality rates when summer dry conditions returned. Although past and modern pollen–climate relationships may very likely have been affected by human activities since the Neolithic (i.e. when exploitation of the landscape started), we reject the hypothesis of a significant anthropogenic bias in the pollen‐based climate reconstruction. In addition, we suggest that pollen‐based and lake‐level reconstructions may have different inherent abilities of capturing high‐ and low‐frequency precipitation signals. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term summer (AD751–2008) temperature fluctuation in the French Alps based on tree‐ring data

Corona, C., Edouard, J.‐L., Guibal, F., Guiot, J., Bernard, S., Thomas, A. & Denelle, N. 2010: Long‐term summer (AD751–2008) temperature fluctuation in the French Alps based on tree‐ring data. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00185.x. ISSN 0300‐9843. On the basis of a dense tree‐ring width network (34 unpublished multi‐centennial larch chronologies), this paper attempts to reconstruct, for the first time, the summer temperatures in the French Alps (44°–45.30°N, 6.30°–7.45°E) during the last millennium. The adaptative Regional Growth Curve standardization method is applied to preserve interannual to multi‐centennial variations in this high‐elevation proxy data set. The proxies are calibrated using the June to August mean temperatures from the last revised version of the HISTALP database spanning the period AD1760–2003 and adjusted to take into account the warm bias before 1850. About 45% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. Despite the use of the newly updated meteorological data set, the reconstruction still shows colder temperatures than early instrumental measurements between 1760 and 1840. The proxy record evidences a prolonged Medieval Warm Period persisting until 1500, with warm periods that resemble 20th century conditions but also cold phases before 1000 synchronous with Swiss glacier advances. The Little Ice Age is rather mild until 1660 if compared with other Alpine reconstructions. Thereafter, summers are 0.7 °C cooler than the 1961–1990 mean until 1920. The maximum temperature amplitude over the past 1250 years is estimated to be 3 °C between the warmest (810s, 1990s) and coldest (1810s) decades. Most of the 20th century is comparable with the Medieval Warm Period.     

1543—2001年北疆区域年降水量变化特征分析

征,同时200 a左右的周期变化特征也较为明显,且不同历史时期的周期变化特征存在明显差异.突变检验表明,均值突变尺度在50～100 a尺度上更为明显,公元1613-1643年,1731-1792年的突变表现为年降水量的增加,而公元1669-1712年的突变则表现为年降水量的减少;方差突变则以18世纪80年代最为明显.     

Drought assessment and uncertainty analysis for Dapoling basin

In the present study, the Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was employed to analyze the drought status of the Dapoling basin over a period of autumn from September to November, because drought events frequently occur during this period. Three time scales were used, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scale. Daily precipitation data from 13 weather stations covering a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010 were collected, and the Tyson polygon method was used to calculate the monthly precipitation of the basin. Based on the SPI value, the classification of drought was provided. Besides, considering the fact that the length of sample used to calculate the SPI influences the accuracy on SPI estimation, in turn to lead to the uncertainty of drought classification, the bootstrap technique was employed to analyze the uncertainty of SPI estimation and drought assessment. Results showed that, for September, October or November, drought event mainly occurred in 1985, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2007. Especially in 1999 and 2001, severe drought and extreme drought occurred. And the uncertainty analysis results indicated that in term of expected estimation, the two methods with consideration and no-consideration of impact of sample on SPI calculation has no considerable difference, while in term of confidence interval estimation of SPI, there are obviously different between the two methods. This means the impact of the sampling uncertainty on SPI calculation and drought assessment should be noted and not ignored.     

青海都兰过去2000年来的气候重建及其变迁

根据青海都兰地区树木年轮样本建立了目前我国最长的年轮年表序列。通过年表与气候要素间相关函数、响应函数及响应面分析,选择了可被重建的气候因子,建立了重建方程,恢复了青海都兰地区历史时期的平均温度;并分析讨论了近2 000年来该地区的气候变化。阐述了这个地区的冷暖交替及周期循环。对一些重大气候事件,如中世纪暖期、小冰期和近一个世纪以来的升温等,逐个事件进行了剖析。并与全球温度变化进行了对照。都兰温度曲线为青藏高原东部地区提供了一个较好的气候变化信息表。     

利用树轮宽度重建近280 a来祁连山东部地区的春季降水

利用采自祁连山东部的祁连圆柏样芯样本，建立标准化年表，并将标准年表的树轮指数与附近的乌鞘岭气象站的温度和降水进行相关分析，结果表明，年轮指数与3－4月降水呈显著正相关，相关系数为0．525，利用标准化年表与3－4月降水的线性回归方程重建了研究区近280a来的3－4月降水，统计检验表明重建结果是可靠的。     

近五百年我国北方多雨年及其与温度背景的关联

将秦岭淮河以北、90°E以东的广大地区呈现“多雨” 格局的年份称为“北方多雨年”,其中105°N以东地域降水偏多的年份称为“北方东部多雨年”。综合利用历史文献记录、树木年轮代用记录和降水量资料来确定近五百年间的北方多雨年份和北方东部多雨年份,并建立历史年表(1470～2007年)。指出,在过去的538年间有北方多雨年97年(发生率18.0%)和北方东部多雨年174年(发生率32.3%),二者均呈现阶段性集中出现的特点,各有6个长约 20～40年的频繁发生时段。在北半球和东亚气候相对温暖的时段内,北方多雨年和北方东部多雨年的发生频率明显地高于气候相对寒冷的时段,这意味着在未来气候变暖的背景下,我国的降水分布将可能出现北方多雨年频繁出现的情形。在最近百年的全球大范围急剧升温时段,北方多雨年的发生频率仅表现为高于冷时段而已,并未呈现随增温速率的加快而同步增高,这表明北方多雨年的发生率与温度背景并非简单的线性关系。     

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought based on a combined index using copula

Drought as a natural disaster impresses people living. The main tool in better management of such phenomena is to explain its characteristics, using drought indices. The indices use precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and other hydrological variables to explain such events. In this study, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and stream-flow drought index (SDI) were used to develop a new combined drought index (CDI) based on copula functions. The proposed index function was evaluated in Khuzestan, Yazd and Golestan provinces of Iran from 1982 to 2012. These areas introduce different climate conditions. The index was analyzed temporally and spatially. In the temporal analysis, CDI was calculated separately for each station and the finest index was chosen by Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Chi-squared tests. In the spatial analysis, CDI was computed for two main scenarios and twenty sub-scenarios for the whole area of Golestan Province. The optimum index was chosen based on comparison with initial SPI and SDI. The results showed that CDI is more meticulous than both singular SPI and SDI, as it can trace a drought onset earlier and drought duration more accurate than the two individual indices and obviously display extreme states.     

天山中段树木生长对气候垂直梯度的响应*

文章通过天山中段垂直梯度上多个台站的气候资料,系统分析了不同海拔高度气候变化的时空差异性,以此作为与轮宽资料进行相关分析的基础。进一步利用气候条件较为一致的天山中段鹿角湾、乌鲁木齐河源山区和天池等地森林上限附近树木年轮宽度变化资料,结合前人在这一地区森林内部和森林下限所做的研究,探讨了天山中段树木生长对气候垂直梯度的响应。结果表明,天山山区最大降水高度有明显的季节变化,从而导致气候因子对树木生长影响的复杂性。除了海拔最高的采样点天池(TC)外,其他采样点均与上年8~9月降水总量正相关,与上年7~8月平均温度负相关,与当年4~5月降水总量正相关。而在海拔最高、高山林线附近的采样点与当年2月均温显著正相关,与当年5月气温显著负相关。可以认为,在研究区树木生长主要受到上年7~8月由高温引起的干旱和当年4~5月由降水不足导致的干旱的影响。在接近气候林线处,低温的限制作用才表现出来。     

A Moisture Balance Reconstruction for the Drainage Basin of Albemarle Sound, North Carolina

Freshwater discharge into Albemarle Sound and many other large estuaries can have a major impact on the physical and biological properties of the estuary. Earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) width tree ring chronologies recently developed from ancient trees and sub-fossil logs found at Devil’s Gut of the Roanoke River, North Carolina, were used with new EW and LW width data from Blackwater River, Virginia, to reconstruct the July Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) over the drainage basin of Albemarle Sound from 934 to 2005. This reconstruction is based on a principal component regression using millennium-long chronologies of both EW and LW widths, calibrated and verified against instrumental July PHDI from 1895 to 1985. The reconstruction provides a lengthy representation of inter-annual to multi-decadal growing season moisture variability that directly affects water quality in the Albemarle Sound estuarine ecosystem. Single-year drought and wetness extremes were more common in the modern instrumental period (1895–2005), but prolonged droughts reconstructed during the Medieval and Early Colonial eras were more severe and sustained than the reconstructed or observed droughts during the twentieth century. Several abrupt transitions between decadal drought and wetness regimes are reconstructed, especially during the Medieval Era. Composite analysis of lower-magnitude sub-decadal regime shifts in the instrumental record during the twentieth century indicates that major changes in mid-latitude circulation over the Northern Hemisphere may have been involved in these longer decadal transitions between moisture regimes over Albemarle Sound in prehistory.     

First detection of glacial meltwater signature in tree‐ring δ18O: Reconstructing past major glacier runoff events at Lago Verde (Miage Glacier,Italy)

With the aim of evaluating the influence of glacial meltwater signature on tree‐ring stable isotopes, we analysed δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in the tree rings of Larix decidua Mill. specimens growing in the area of an ice‐contact lake (Lago Verde, at Miage Glacier, European Alps). Additionally, we analysed δ¹⁸O in the glacial meltwater of the lake and of the glacier stream and compared it with the δ¹⁸O of precipitation predicted by a spatial model. We found that tree‐ring cellulose of trees fed by glacial meltwaters (LVW site) is significantly more depleted in δ¹⁸O than at a control site LVM (?0.91‰) fed only by precipitation, thus reflecting the measured higher depletion of glacial meltwaters with respect to local precipitation. δ¹³C values did not show significant differences in mean values between the two sites but an anomalous correlation with summer temperature was found at the LVW site, probably due to the different responses of trees stomatal conductance. Over the 30‐year period of analysis, four years at LVW (1992, 1995, 2003 and 2009) were markedly depleted in δ¹⁸O. These years are those when the highest summer temperatures were recorded in the area (the ones during which glacier ablation usually increases and more depleted meltwaters fill the lake), with the exception of 1995 during which high water levels occurred following the year with the second highest summer temperature (1994). Overall, our analysis demonstrates that tree‐ring δ¹⁸O, driven by the glacial meltwater signature in the lake, can be used for detecting past major glacier runoff events. The proposed approach could also be used for quantifying past glacier runoff and for defining past distribution areas of glacial meltwaters in glacier forefields, thus contributing to past environmental reconstructions and to hazard assessment.     

利用贺兰山北部树轮资料重建过去270年以来6～8月平均干燥指数

采用油松树轮晚材宽度,重建了贺兰山北部地区过去270年以来夏季(6～8月)干燥指数,重建序列的方差解释量(R2)为52%。并发现干燥指数大于均值的年份有1745～1756年、1847～1864年、1925～1933年,小于均值的年份有1731～1744年、1775～1788年、1798～1808年、1865～1877年、1973～1992年;11年滑动平均后发现18世纪50年代前后、19世纪50～60年代、20世纪20年代后期以及30年代初为较干旱时期,干旱时期干燥度变率较小,而湿润时段干燥度变率较大,反映了贺兰山地区气候变化的一个特点,即干旱年会连续出现;周期分析表明,干燥度指数存在22年的准周期。     

Tree-ring reconstructions of May–June precipitation for western Anatolia

In this study, we aim to examine past dry and wet events for the western Anatolia, performing local and spatial reconstructions. 17 new black pine site chronologies were developed, May–June precipitation time series were reconstructed for four localities, and the first spatial May–June precipitation reconstruction was achieved for western Anatolia. The long-term local May–June precipitation reconstructions contain mostly one-year and, less commonly, two-year drought events. The longest consecutive dry period (AD 1925–1928) in the reconstructed time series for Kütahya lasted four years. Spatial reconstructions revealed that between AD 1786 and 1930 the extreme dry years for all of western Anatolia were AD 1887, 1893, 1794 and 1740. The driest year during the 215-year-long period under consideration was 1887. The wettest years for the entire western Anatolia were determined to be AD 1835, 1876, 1881 and 1901. There is a big overlap between agricultural famine years and dry years as determined from reconstructions. In this context, our study provides a basis for understanding agricultural drought and better management of regional water resources.     

新疆克里雅河洪泛事件与树轮记录的初步研究

新疆克里雅河尾闾地带的达里雅博依绿洲位于塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地。在塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地,光、热条件非常充分,水分是影响胡杨生长的主要因子。由于上游截流用于农业生产及河流下渗等因素的影响,导致下游水量逐渐减少,只有特大洪汛期才有洪水泻入下游尾闾地带。因此,胡杨的生长与洪汛期洪水密切相关,洪水较大的年份输入的水量多,有利于胡杨的生长。本文对新疆克里雅河尾闾地带胡杨(Populuseuphratica)树轮进行了初步研究,发现树轮宽度与克里雅河径流量的相关性较差,轮宽与器测径流量的相关系数仅为0.15,考虑到胡杨生长对径流量的滞后效应,滞后3年的轮宽与器测径流量的相关系数为0.30,但与洪水年份有较好的对应性。近百年来的9次洪水年份分别为1941年、1963年、1971年、1972年、1981年、1987年、1996年、2000年和2001年,均对应于胡杨树轮宽度较大的年份,但一些年份有一定的滞后期。