Mesoscale Precipitation and Temperature Regimes in Sardinia (Italy) and their Related Synoptic Circulation

Summary This paper describes an attempt to define mesoscale daily precipitation and temperature regimes over Sardinia and their relation to different synoptic patterns. In order to address this task an extensive Cluster Analysis was performed on the whole data set using a number of methods, each including several distance measures. Thirty years of daily data, for the period ranging from 1951 to 1980 for the 114 stations with precipitation and 20 with temperature, were used in the study. In order to retrieve homogeneous clusters, non-hierarchical methods were found to be more effective and the use of a correlation-like distance was more effective for precipitation. To discriminate between the different clusters, the corresponding mean mass fields for the 500 hPa height and sea level pressure were used and an analysis of synoptic situations linked to mesoscale regimes was performed. The results show that at least two mean surface patterns exist corresponding to clearly different synoptic situations. Nevertheless, physical considerations led us to consider three distinct clusters, two of which correspond to specific synoptic circulations with slight, but meteorologically significant, differences. Received November 28, 1997 Revised October 1, 1998     

Objective synoptic classification combined with high resolution meteorological models for wind mesoscale studies

Summary A methodology developed for automatic classification of Objective Synoptic Processes (OSP) and its application to the study of the mesoscale atmospheric circulatory patterns associated with them is described. The classification was based on the analysis of the evolution of surface pressure and geopotencial height at 500 hPa during three days. An iterative procedure results in an objective grouping of the main configurations describing different large-scale situations. This routine has been applied over an appropriate domain covering the Iberian Peninsula to obtain OSPs in the region for the two month period July–August, using daily synoptic maps for years 1990 to 1999 (a total of 7304 surface and 500 hPa synoptic maps have been used in the analysis). Finally, for a characteristic day for two of the OSPs obtained, a mesoscale meteorological model (TAPM) has been run at high resolution for the region of Catalonia, Northeastern Spain, in order to describe the local atmospheric circulatory patterns associated with a given large-scale situation. Results show that the complex orography modifies the large-scale forcings resulting in wind fields with a very important horizontal variability, significant daily cycle, and specific local features related to orographic elements, which the model was able to incorporate due to the highly-resolved orography used.     

Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential heights back to the late 19th century

Summary In this study the authors have developed a statistical method and have reconstructed Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa heights back to the late 19th century using one temperature and three sea level pressure (SLP) data sets. First, the relationship between ERA40 500 hPa heights and surface temperature and SLP was screened using stepwise multiple regression based on the calibration period of 1958–2002 (1998/2000 according to the availability of SLP data). All selected predictors (temperature and SLP) were significant and their variance contribution was greater than 1%. On average, there were 8.1 variables retained in the final regression equations. Second, the regression equations were applied to compute the 500 hPa height through to the late 19th century for the whole Northern Hemisphere. As the SLP and temperature coverage improved over time, the number of predictors decreased by about 1 in the most recent periods, and the root mean squared error decreased by about 0.8 m. A leave-one-out cross-validation method was used to test the skill and stability of the regression models. The reduction of error during the cross-validation period of 1958–1997 varied from 0.33 to 0.56, depending on the SLP data. Reconstructions were also checked using NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa heights from January 1949 to December 1957, and compared with the historical reconstruction over Europe. Reconstructions show high consistency with these independent data sets. Generally, the reconstruction provides a valuable opportunity to analyze, as well as to validate climate simulations of the variability in free atmosphere circulations over the past one hundred years.     

The transport of momentum, sensible heat, potential energy and moisture over the western Himalayas during the winter season

Summary The western Himalayas receive higher precipitation than the eastern Himalayas during the winter season (December–March). This differential pattern of winter precipitation over the Himalayas can be attributed to topography and to a higher frequency of disturbances over the western Himalayas, which result in variations in the circulation features. These circulation features, in turn, result in variations in the meridional transport of heat, momentum, potential energy, and moisture across the Himalayas due to mean and eddy motion. Significant meridional transport due to mean motion takes place in the upper troposphere at 300 hPa and 200 hPa. Transport east of 100° E dominates the transport over the western Himalayas. The eddy transport of heat, momentum, and potential energy is considerably smaller than that due to mean motion. Eddy transport magnitudes are smaller up to 500 hPa and increase rapidly aloft to 300 hPa and 200 hPa. Eddy transport over the western Himalayas is greater than over the eastern Himalayas.     

A Preliminary Analysis of Disturbance Tracksover the Mediterranean Basin

Summary  The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in the eastern Mediterranean are also made. Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999     

Temperature and surface pressure anomalies in Israel and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Summary Teleconnections associated with changing patterns of temperature and pressure anomalies over Israel during the second half of the 20th century are investigated. Relatively high, statistically significant, correlation coefficients of −0.8 and +0.9 were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index anomalies and smoothed (5 year running mean) cool season temperature and surface pressure anomalies in Israel, respectively. A relatively high positive correlation, (r = 0.8) was also found between the NAO Index anomalies and smoothed geopotential height of the 1000 hPa pressure level, during the cool season at Bet Dagan radiosonde station located on the Israel Mediterranean coastal plain. Correlation coefficients between NAO Index anomalies and the higher standard pressure levels, 850 and 700 hPa, decrease gradually and become negative (not statistically significant) for the 500 hPa level. Received January 25, 2000/Revised March 6, 2001     

Monthly Synoptic Patterns Associated with Wet/Dry Conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean

Summary An investigation of the main features of large-scale synoptic patterns over Europe and the adjacent areas for extreme winter periods during 1980–1995 over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) is performed. The NASA reanalysis data set is used to investigate composite sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface (H-500) and precipitation–wet, normal and dry patterns for each month during the period October–March. It is found that the wet and dry cool seasons in the EM are associated with distinct SLP and H-500 anomaly patterns over Europe and the adjacent regions. During the dry spells large-scale positive SLP/H-500 anomaly areas prevail over Eastern Europe. A negative SLP anomaly is normally found during these periods over southwestern and Western Europe. During the wet cool seasons in the EM there are mainly negative SLP/H-500 anomaly areas over Eastern Europe to the north east of the EM. Positive SLP/H-500 anomalies are found over Western Europe. During wet months a trough zone between the Siberian and the Azorean Highs is positioned over the eastern part of the Mediterranean. During dry months the Siberian anticyclone is more intensive and the zone with low surface pressure is displaced to the central part of the northern Mediterranean. Received May 26, 1999 Revised August 26, 1999     

Analysis of Mesoscale Patterns in Relation to Synoptic Conditionsover an Urban Mediterranean Basin

Summary In this study day by day synoptic conditions are classified over the Attica peninsula for a period of sixteen years. Eight synoptic categories which are demonstrated to be statistically distinct are selected with respect to the atmospheric circulation in the lower troposphere. Furthermore, a methodology is proposed to classify the mesoscale patterns for the same period on the basis of surface wind measurements, and this distinguishes eleven distinct mesoscale categories. In general, the frequency analysis reveals that the anticyclonic circulation dominates while the weak mesoscale flows prevail, with preference in May and June. A day by day cross tabulation of the synoptic flow patterns with the mesoscale categories is then performed in order to identify the association of the synoptic conditions with the mesoscale flow regime. It was found that the synoptic conditions at the level of 850 hPa are closely related to the observed surface local flows and therefore it is suggested that the synoptic categories can be used for the identification of the most favourable mesoscale atmospheric circulation. Received February 28, 1997 Revised May 22, 1997     

Variations of 500 hPa flow patterns over Iranand surrounding areas and their relationship with the climate of Iran

Summary In order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of 500 hPa flow patterns and their relationship with the climate of Iran, monthly mean geopotential heights for the region 0° E to 70° E and 20° N to 50° N, at 5 degree resolution, were analysed. The study period covered the winter months October to March during the period 1961–90. The monthly height of the 500 hPa level was averaged along each meridian from 25° N to 45° N. The height of the mean monthly pressure pattern was mapped against the study years. The results showed that the characteristics of the 500 hPa flow pattern varied over monthly and annual time scales. Principal Component Analysis, with S-mode and Varimax rotation, was also used to reduce the gridded data to 5 (6 in October) significant factors. The factor scores for each month were then correlated with monthly Z-scores of precipitation and temperature anomalies over Iran. The results showed that troughs and ridges located close to Iran had more influence on the climate of Iran. Two troughs were identified and named the Caspian and Syrian troughs. Received April 12, 2001 Revised July 24, 2001     

Ice Storm ’98 in Southcentral Canada and Northeastern United States: A Climatological Perspective

Summary Dubbed Ice Storm ’98, an extreme weather event characterized by two synoptic systems in succession dropped about 70–100 mm (in terms of water equivalent) of freezing precipitation over southeastern Ontario, southwestern Quebec and northeastern New York during a 6-day period from January 5 to 10 in 1998. Individually, the two synoptic systems were not dramatically more extreme in freezing precipitation than other major freezing rain events (4 since 1961) which occurred in the past over the affected area. Some regions in the target area, however, were impacted more by the second system. Based on an analysis of the 500 hPa vorticity field during the ’98 event, we suggest that the 1997/98 El Ni?o had a role in creating a flow environment conducive to the rapid formation of the second synoptic system. In contrast, other major freezing rain events in the last 30 years involved only one synoptic system per event lasting no more than 3 days, and producing 20–50 mm of precipitation. We have also found that, 3 out of 4 past major freezing rain events since 1958 were associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Consistent with this usual past association between the NAO and a major freezing rain event, Ice Storm ’98 also occurred when the phase of the NAO was positive. Analysis of these 3 past and the ’98 events also indicates an apparent connection between the positive phase of the NAO and the northern Quebec high pressure system, which is an essential synoptic feature of a major freezing rain occurrence over the southcentral region of Canada. As measured by their respective indices, the maximum positive NAO state leads the maximum northern Quebec high by about 2 days (5 days in the ’98 event). There is some suggestive evidence to indicate that the persistence of the northern Quebec high pressure system is connected to the persistence of the positive phase of the NAO. Received January 17, 2000     

The Association Between Circulation Anomaliesin the Mid-Troposphere and Area Burnedby Wildland Fire in Canada

Summary  There is evidence that the area burned by wildland fire has increased in certain regions of Canada in recent decades. One cause for this increase is changes in the mid-tropospheric circulation at 500 hPa over northern North America. This study examines the physical links between anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over various regions of Canada and wildland fire severity. Analysis of monthly and seasonal burned areas for the period 1953 to 1995 reveals a bimodal distribution with distinct low and extreme high burned area years. The high/low burned area years coincide with positive/negative 500 hPa height anomalies over north-western, western, west-central and east-central Canada. Total area burned and the 500 hPa height anomaly data are analyzed for statistical relationships using the Spearman rank correlation non-parametric measure. Results for the May to August fire season indicate statistically significant correlations between regional total area burned and clusters of anomalous 500 hPa geopotential height values immediately over, and immediately upstream of the affected region. For the north-western and west-central regions, significantly correlated clusters are found in the central Pacific as well, providing evidence of the influence of a teleconnection structure on the summer climate of western and north-western North America. Two sample comparison tests show statistically significant differences in both the means and variances of the fire data populations during negative and positive phases of mid-tropospheric flow, and the means of the height anomaly populations during extremely high and extremely low area burned seasons. Increases in regional total area burned are related to increases in mean 500 hPa heights, taken from the significantly correlated clusters of height values, between two successive periods 1953–74 and 1975–95. For Canada as a whole, the five lowest area burned seasons all occurred during the early period, while the five highest seasons occurred during the later period. The difference in the geopotential height fields between the two periods identifies an increase in 500 hPa heights over most of Canada with an amplification of the western Canada ridge and an eastward shifted Canadian Polar Trough (CPT). Received October 19, 1998     

Duplex equilibria of Ural circulation anomalies

Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Ural Mountains are crucial indicators of the anomalous downstream weather and climate over East Asia. Here, we provide a new perspective on the mechanism of Ural circulation anomalies. We use a simple theoretical model to determine that the relationship between the solar forcing and three Ural circulation patterns, namely, neutral type, trough anomaly and ridge anomaly, is a nonlinear relationship following the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation theory. The theory predicts that when the total solar irradiance (TSI) is below a critical value, trough and ridge anomalies represent duplex equilibria and are equally likely to occur at the same TSI. Based on 180 winter months record, we have estimated the bidimensional probability density of TSI and the monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa or zonal wind at 850 hPa over the Ural Mountains. Results show that Sc = 1360.9 W m−2 is a critical value of TSI, the neutral type pattern is the single circulation regime when TSI > Sc, whereas trough and ridge anomaly patterns are duplex circulation regimes when TSI < Sc. Besides, when TSI < Sc, during the same TSI range, trough and ridge anomaly events occur at nearly the same frequencies. These results generally agree with the theoretical model. We demonstrate that trough and ridge anomalies, as duplex equilibria, result from the large-scale zonal flow interacting with the Ural Mountains. Low TSI tends to strengthen the large-scale zonal flow over the Ural Mountains, hence inducing either a trough anomaly or ridge anomaly.     

Principal Components Analysis of Rainfall and Associated Synoptic Models of the Southwest Monsoon over India

Summary  The summer monsoon circulation shows various spatial and temporal oscillations and often a combination of systems produces an integrated effect. In this study phases of the southwest (SW) monsoon have been identified in an objective manner with the help of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) of weekly rainfall anomalies. Mean composite charts have been prepared utilising all available upper air data (1977–1986) for each category of the SW monsoon epochs identified by the PCA. These sets of charts have been constructed for both the strong and weak phases associated with the first four significant principal components (PCs). A well defined east-west oriented trough system, extending from about 28° N Latitude/65° E Longitude to 20° N Latitude/90° E Longitude, in the lower levels, has been the main feature associated with the strong phase of the monsoon corresponding to PC I. The trough in the lower levels is more marked in the eastern half compared to the western half in both the sets of charts associated with strong phases of the monsoon related to the PC II and PC III. With PC II, the position of the troughs in the lower levels is further north of its location in PC III. The east-west trough system associated with the strong phase of PC IV has a large southward tilt with height. The charts corresponding to the weak phases of these PCs have synoptic features, such as the position of the trough close to the foothills of the Himalayas, and the shifting of middle and upper tropospheric anticyclones to the south. The study suggests an objective method of interpretation of principal components by utilising synoptic data. In addition, synoptic models and data sets corresponding to different phases of the monsoon can also be prepared in an objective manner by such PCA. Received July 18, 1997 Revised April 30, 1999     

500 hPa Vorticity Analyses over Argentina: Their Climatologyand Capacity to Distinguish Synoptic-Scale Precipitation

Summary The Southern South America climatological 500 hPa relative vorticity mean state was examined using regional objective analyses of 500 hPa geopotential heights provided by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional of Argentina. The dataset, covering the period June 1983 to July 1987, was stratified into two samples: the cold and warm seasons. Mean cyclonic vorticity south of 40° S results in a climatological trough over Patagonia with a northwest-southeast tilt. North of this latitude, mean anticyclonic circulation dominates with the exception of a centre of cyclonic vorticity over the Río de la Plata (35° S, 56° W). Seasonal changes appear to be small. Relative vorticity frequency distributions were also analysed. The association between precipitation and synoptic-scale features of the mid-troposphere circulation was investigated through vorticity fields. A particular distribution of vorticity anomalies associated with daily precipitation in Buenos Aires is revealed by biserial correlation coefficient fields. In winter, the strongest relationships are found between 35° S and 40° S over the Andes Mountains (minimum significant correlation coefficients indicating a cyclonic vorticity anomaly), and in the south of Brazil and east of Buenos Aires over the Atlantic Ocean down to a latitude of 40° S (maximum correlation coefficients related to anomalously anticyclonic circulation). This shows the preferential position of troughs and ridges that produce precipitation in Buenos Aires on the time scale of a day. In summer, centres of anomalously cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity associated with precipitation shift slightly southward. For moderate or intense precipitation in Buenos Aires, advection of warm and wet air southwards appears to be more important in winter, while in summer the strong anomalous vorticity gradient north of the negative centre over the Andes Cordillera favours rainfall in Buenos Aires. Received April 17, 1997     

Spatial / temporal features of antarctic climate change1

Based on January 1962–October 1993 mean value series of monthly mean temperature anomalies of 16 Antarctic stations on 10 standard isobaric surfaces from the surface to the 30 hPa, long term trends and periodic features of climate changes from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere over the Antarctic region are investigated by maximum entropy power spectrum analysis, and the relation between climate change of the stratosphere (troposphere) and total ozone (southern 500 hPa circulation) is discussed. This work is supported by the research item on the Theory and Method of Long Range Weather Forecasts.     

川藏地区雷暴大风活动特征和环境因子对比

利用2010—2017年中国气象局重要天气报、地面观测和探空资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim再分析资料,对川藏地区雷暴大风的活动特征、环境因子和环流形势进行统计分析,并对其中高原（海拔高度不低于1 km）和盆地（海拔高度低于1 km）区域雷暴大风活动进行对比。结果表明:川藏高原区域雷暴大风频次呈5—6月和9月双峰型分布,主要发生在午后;盆地区域主要发生在夏季,午后和夜间均较活跃。高原站雷暴大风年平均频次约为2次/站,在雷暴和大风中分别约占4.5%和8%。盆地站年平均频次仅为0.4次/站,雷暴中仅占1.5%,但在大风中约占60%。高原站雷暴大风的中低层环境温度递减率较大,一般呈上湿下干的逆湿垂直结构;而盆地站雷暴大风通常具有上干下湿的垂直结构。分别对5—6月和9月高原站雷暴大风两个峰值时段的环流形势进行合成分析,发现5—6月受高空西风槽影响,中层有弱冷平流侵入,高层位于高空急流入口区右侧,环境垂直风切变较大;而9月受副热带高压边缘影响,中高层较干,低层暖湿气流明显。这些均有利于雷暴大风发生。     

50hPa距平场13个特征波型的相关性及其季变年变规律的研究

本文给出了平流层50hPa距平场13个特征波型和用288个格点距平资料计算的自相关系数分布图和500hPa288个格点及敏感区6个格点距平资料计算的相关系数分布图。三者之间非常相似。这意味着平流层和对流层之间是紧密相关的。50hPa自相关系数图反映的是超长波1—3波系统演变趋势,而500hPa相关系数图在秋季反映的是3波槽脊系统,冬夏季却反映的是2波系统,这足以说明50hPa距平场13个特征波型是平流层大气客观存在的运动形式。我们还发现它们在各自的季变年变过程中存在着显著的演变规律和相当长的稳定性,是大气环流未来变化和发生各种灾害性天气气候过程的重要影响因子。     

Climate impact of the European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses

A comprehensive multivariable characterisation of the climatic impacts of winter blocking and strong zonal-flow (non-blocking) episodes over the Euro-Atlantic sector is presented here, using a 40-year (1958–97) consistent dataset from NCEP/NCAR. Anomaly fields of surface or low troposphere climate variables are then interpreted based on large-scale physical mechanisms, namely, the anomalous mean flow (characterised by the 500 hPa geopotential height and the surface wind) and the anomalous eddy activity (characterised by the surface vorticity and cyclonic activity). It is shown that the lower troposphere (850 hPa) temperature patterns are mainly controlled by the advection of heat by the anomalous mean flow. However, at the surface level, the anomaly patterns obtained for maximum and minimum temperatures present important asymmetries, associated with a different control mechanism, namely the modulation of shortwave and longwave radiation by cloud cover variations. It is shown that blocking and non-blocking episodes are typically associated with important meridional shifts in the location of maximum activity of transient eddies. The influence of persistent anomaly events in precipitable water is strongly related to the corresponding anomaly fields of lower troposphere temperature. The precipitation rate, however, appears to be essentially controlled by the surface vorticity field and preferred locations of associated cyclones.     

Validation of synoptic circulation patterns simulated by the Canadian climate centre general circulation model for western north America: Research note

Abstract

In order to assess the ability of a GCM to simulate regional to synoptic scale atmospheric structures, a correlation‐based computer‐assisted gridded map typing procedure is used to compare daily pressure (MSL) and geopotential height fields (500 hPa) from a GCM simulation of the present climate to a decade of NMC analyses. The model is able to reproduce the entire range of synoptic circulation types. However, statistically significant differences in the seasonal frequencies and variances of the main circulation types are evident. These differences, which are most pronounced in the winter (at 500 hPa) and in spring and autumn in the MSL fields, are consistent with subtle errors in the predicted fields at the hemispheric scale. The lack of agreement between the NMC climatology and the “control” simulation precludes extension of this approach to investigation of climate change impacts in western north America, and to more meteorologically dynamic extra‐tropical regions. The map‐typing procedure is shown to be an appropriate GCM synoptic‐scale validation tool that permits direct comparison of GCM output and observed fields. As such, it has the potential to elucidate the regional‐scale impacts of global climatic change through established synoptic circulation environment relationships.