Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins

Distributed hydrological modelling using space–time estimates of rainfall from weather radar provides a natural approach to area-wide flood forecasting and warning at any location, whether gauged or ungauged. However, radar estimates of rainfall may lack consistent, quantitative accuracy. Also, the formulation of hydrological models in distributed form may be problematic due to process complexity and scaling issues. Here, the aim is to first explore ways of improving radar rainfall accuracy through combination with raingauge network data via integrated multiquadric methods. When the resulting gridded rainfall estimates are employed as input to hydrological models, the simulated river flows show marked improvements when compared to using radar data alone. Secondly, simple forms of physical–conceptual distributed hydrological model are considered, capable of exploiting spatial datasets on topography and, where necessary, land-cover, soil and geology properties. The simplest Grid-to-Grid model uses only digital terrain data to delineate flow pathways and to control runoff production, the latter by invoking a probability-distributed relation linking terrain slope to soil absorption capacity. Model performance is assessed over nested river basins in northwest England, employing a lumped model as a reference. When the distributed model is used with the gridded radar-based rainfall estimators, it shows particular benefits for forecasting at ungauged locations.     

Evaluating the performance of climate models in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of rainfall events

ABSTRACT

Rainfall events largely control hydrological processes occurring on and in the ground, but the performance of climate models in reproducing rainfall events has not been investigated enough to guide selection among the models when making hydrological projections. We proposed to compare the durations, intensities, and pause periods, as well as depths of rainfall events when assessing the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of observed rainfall. We also compared the sizes of design storm events and the frequency and severity of drought to demonstrate the consequences of GCM selection. The results show that rainfall and extreme hydrological event projections could significantly vary depending on climate model selection and weather stations, suggesting the need for a careful and comprehensive evaluation of GCM in the hydrological analysis of climate change. The proposed methods are expected to help to improve the accuracy of future hydrological projections for water resources planning.     

Spatial and temporal variations of overland flow during rainfall events and in relation to catchment conditions

Improved knowledge on overland flow (OF) generation and its dynamics (i.e. spatial and temporal variations) is essential to understand catchment hydrology, a prerequisite for better water resources and soil management. In this study, our main objective was to quantify the dynamics of OF during rainfall events and to assess its main factors of control. The research study was undertaken in an agricultural 23‐ha catchment of a communal pasture in KwaZulu‐Natal (South Africa) experiencing Mediterranean climate and with variations of soil, topography and vegetation conditions. The dynamics of OF was evaluated during three rainfall seasons (2007 to 2010) by using 1 × 1‐m² microplots (n = 15) located at five landscape positions. At each location, a microplot was equipped with an automatic tipping bucket linked to a logger to estimate the delay between the start of the rain and the start of OF [i.e. the time to runoff initiation (TRI)]. Multivariate analysis was applied to the total OF and TRI data and the information on selected environmental factors (rainfall characteristics; soil type; soil clay content, Clay; proportion of the soil surface covered by vegetation, Cov; proportion of the soil surface covered by crusting, Crust; mean slope gradient, S; soil bulk density, ρ_b; soil water tension at different depths, SWT). The average OF rate over the 3‐year study period varied 2.3‐fold across the catchment (from 15% footslope to 35% backslope), whereas the average TRI varied by a 10.6‐fold factor (between 0.6 min at bottomland and 6.4 min at footslope). TRI temporal variations correlated the most with event duration (r = 0.8) and cumulative amount of rainfall since the onset of the rainy season (r = ?0.47), whereas TRI spatial variations were controlled the most by Crust (?0.97 < r < ?0.77). Ultimately, TRI spatial variations were modelled and mapped in an attempt to model OF dynamics over the entire microcatchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation patterns and associated hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China, using TRMM/PR data and EOF analysis

Abstract

A decadal-scale study to retrieve the spatio-temporal precipitation patterns of the Yangtze River basin, China, using the Tropical Rain Mapping Mission, Precipitation Radar (TRMM/PR) data is presented. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on monthly TRMM/PR data extracts several leading precipitation patterns, which are largely connected with physical implications at the basin scale. With the aid of gauge station data, the amplitudes of major principal components (PCs) were used to examine the generic relationships between precipitation variations and hydrological extremes (e.g. floods and droughts) during summer seasons over the past decade. The emergence of such major precipitation patterns clearly reveals the possible linkages with hydrological processes, and the oscillations in relation to the amplitude of major PCs are consistent with these observed hydrological extremes. Although the floods in some sections of the Yangtze River were, to some extent, tied to human activities, such as the removal of wetlands, the variations in major precipitation patterns are recognized as the primary driving force of the flow extremes associated with floods and droughts. The research findings indicate that long-distance hydro-meteorological signals of large-scale precipitation variations over such a large river basin can be successfully identified with the aid of EOF analysis. The retrieved precipitation patterns and their low-frequency jumps of amplitude in relation to PCs are valuable tools to help understand the association between the precipitation variations and the occurrence of hydrological extremes. Such a study can certainly aid in disaster mitigation and decision-making in water resource management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Sun, Z., Chang, N.-B., Huang, Q., and Opp, C., 2013. Precipitation patterns and associated hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China, using TRMM/PR data and EOF analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1315–1324.     

Evaluating the suitability of three gridded-datasets and their impacts on hydrological simulation at Scotty Creek in the southern Northwest Territories,Canada

In the southern Northwest Territories (NWT), long time series of historical observations of climate and hydrology are scarce. Gridded datasets have been used as an alternative to instrumental observations for climate analysis in this area, but not for driving models to understand hydrological processes in the southern NWT. The suitability of temperature and precipitation from three-gridded datasets (Australian National University Spline [ANUSPLIN], ERA-Interim, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 [MERRA-2]) as forcings for hydrological modelling in a small subcatchment in the southern NWT are assessed. Multiple statistical techniques are used to ensure that structural and temporal attributes of the observational datasets are adequately compared. Daily minimum and maximum air temperatures in gridded datasets are more similar to observations than precipitation. The ANUSPLIN temperature time series are more statistically similar to observations, based on population statistics and temporal structure, than either of ERA-Interim or MERRA-2. The gridded datasets capture the seasonal and annual seasonal variability of precipitation but with large biases. ANUSPLIN precipitation compares better with observations than either ERA-Interim or MERRA-2 precipitation. The biases in these gridded datasets affect run-off simulations. The biases in hydrological simulations are predictable from the statistical differences between gridded datasets and observations and can be used to make informed choices about their use.     

Coupling of a simultaneous heat and water model with a distributed hydrological model and evaluation of the combined model in a cold region watershed

Snow and frozen soil prevail in cold regions worldwide, and the integration of these processes is crucial in hydrological models. In this study, a combined model was developed by fully coupling a simultaneous heat and water model with a geomorphologically based distributed hydrological model. The combined model simulates vertical and lateral water transfer as well as vertical heat fluxes and is capable of representing the effects of frozen soil and snowmelt on hydrological processes in cold regions. This model was evaluated by using in situ observations in the Binggou watershed, an experimental watershed for cold region hydrology of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research Project. Results showed that the model was able to predict soil freezing and thawing, unfrozen soil water content, and snow depth reasonably well. The simulated hydrograph was in good agreement with the in situ observation. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of daily discharge was 0.744 for the entire simulation period, 0.472 from April to June, and 0.711 from June to November. This model can improve our understanding of hydrological processes in cold regions and assess the impacts of global warming on hydrological cycles and water resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution of heavy metals in Hong Kong's marine sediments and their human impacts: a GIS-based chemometric approach

A geographic information system (GIS)-based chemometric approach was applied to investigate the spatial distribution patterns of heavy metals in marine sediments and to identify spatial human impacts on global and local scales. Twelve metals (Zn, V, Ni, Mn, Pb, Cu, Cd, Ba, Hg, Fe, Cr and Al) were surveyed twice annually at 59 sites in Hong Kong from 1998 to 2004. Cluster analysis classified the entire coastal area into three areas on a global scale, representing different pollution levels. Backward discriminant analysis, with 84.5% correct assignments, identified Zn, Pb, Cu, Cd, V, and Fe as significant variables affecting spatial variation on a local scale. Enrichment factors indicated that Cu, Cr, and Zn were derived from human impacts while Al, Ba, Mn, V and Fe originated from rock weathering. Principal component analysis further subdivided human impacts and their affected areas in each area, explaining 87%, 84% and 87% of the total variances, respectively. The primary anthropogenic sources in the three areas were (i) anti-fouling paint and domestic sewage; (ii) surface runoff, wastewater, vehicle emissions and marine transportation; and (iii) ship repainting, dental clinics, electronic/chemical industries and leaded fuel, respectively. Moreover, GIS-based spatial analysis facilitated chemometric methods.     

Modelling the hydrological response of debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers to present climatic conditions in the semiarid Andes of central Chile

We apply the process‐based, distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH glacio‐hydrological model to a glacierized catchment (19% glacierized) in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. The semiarid Andes provides vital freshwater resources to valleys in Chile and Argentina, but only few glacio‐hydrological modelling studies have been conducted, and its dominant hydrological processes remain poorly understood. The catchment contains two debris‐free glaciers reaching down to 3900 m asl (Bello and Yeso glaciers) and one debris‐covered avalanche‐fed glacier reaching to 3200 m asl (Piramide Glacier). Our main objective is to compare the mass balance and runoff contributions of both glacier types under current climatic conditions. We use a unique dataset of field measurements collected over two ablation seasons combined with the distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH model that includes physically oriented parameterizations of snow and ice ablation, gravitational distribution of snow, snow albedo evolution and the ablation of debris‐covered ice. Model outputs indicate that while the mass balance of Bello and Yeso glaciers is mostly explained by temperature gradients, the Piramide Glacier mass balance is governed by debris thickness and avalanches and has a clear non‐linear profile with elevation as a result. Despite the thermal insulation effect of the debris cover, the mass balance and contribution to runoff from debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers are similar in magnitude, mainly because of elevation differences. However, runoff contributions are distinct in time and seasonality with ice melt starting approximately four weeks earlier from the debris‐covered glacier, what is of relevance for water resources management. At the catchment scale, snowmelt is the dominant contributor to runoff during both years. However, during the driest year of our simulations, ice melt contributes 42 ± 8% and 67 ± 6% of the annual and summer runoff, respectively. Sensitivity analyses show that runoff is most sensitive to temperature and precipitation gradients, melt factors and debris cover thickness. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a groundwater-fed river and potential response to perturbations changing rainfall patterns under UK climate change scenarios

We report the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of hyporheic exchange flows (HEFs) and nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a 200 m groundwater-fed river. We show how research combining hydrological measurement, geophysics and isotopes, together with nutrient speciation techniques provides insight on nitrogen pathways and transformations that could not have been captured otherwise, including a zone of vertical preferential discharge of nitrate from deeper groundwater, and a zone of rapid denitrification linking the floodplain with the riverbed. Nitrate attenuation in the reach is dominated by denitrification but is spatially highly variable. This variability is driven by groundwater flow pathways and landscape setting, which influences hyporheic flow, residence time and nitrate removal. We observed the spatial connectivity of the river to the riparian zone is important because zones of horizontal preferential discharge supply organic matter from the floodplain and create anoxic riverbed conditions with overlapping zones of nitrification potential and denitrification activity that peaked 10–20 cm below the riverbed. Our data also show that temporal variability in water pathways in the reach is driven by changes in stage of the order of tens of centimetres and by strength of water flux, which may influence the depth of delivery of dissolved organic carbon. The temporal variability is sensitive to changes to river flows under UK climate projections that anticipate a 14%–15% increase in regional median winter rainfall and a 14%–19% reduction in summer rainfall. Superimposed on seasonal projections is more intensive storm activity that will likely lead to a more dynamic and inherently complex (hydrologically and biogeochemically) hyporheic zone. We recorded direct evidence of suppression of upwelling groundwater (flow reversal) during rainfall events. Such flow reversal may fuel riverbed sediments whereby delivery of organic carbon to depth, and higher denitrification rates in HEFs might act in concert to make nitrate removal in the riverbed more efficient.     

Groundwater dating with 3H and SF6 in relation to mixing patterns,transport modelling and hydrochemistry

A comprehensive study of a sandy aquifer of deltaic origin in southern Poland included water chemistry, isotopes, dissolved trace gases and transport modelling. Tritium, sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and freons (F‐11, F‐12 and F‐113) showed the presence of modern waters in the recharge areas and shallow confined parts of the aquifer. The presence of older Holocene waters farther from the recharge areas was indicated by lack of ³H, SF₆ contents ≤0·02 fmol l⁻¹ and relatively low ¹⁴C values. The discharge from the system is by upward seepage in the valley of a major river. Pre‐Holocene waters of a cooler climate, identified on the basis of δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ¹⁴C, Ne and Ar data, were found in some distant wells. Concentrations of N₂, Ne and Ar determined by gas chromatography were used for calculating the noble gas temperatures, air excess needed for correction of SF₆, and nitrogen content released by denitrification process. The time series of ³H content available for some wells supplied quantitative information on age distributions and the total mean ages of flow through the unsaturated and saturated zones. The derived ³H age distributions turned out to be very wide, with mean values in the range of about 30 to 160 years. For each well with determined ³H age, the SF₆ data showed either a lower age range or the possibility of a lower age as expected due to shorter travel times of SF₆ through the unsaturated zone, which most probably also resulted in different types of age distributions of these tracers. Freons appeared to be of little use for individual age determinations. A quantitative estimation of two‐component mixing from SF₆ ³H relations is not possible unless the travel time of ³H through the unsaturated zone is comparable to that of SF₆. The ratio of integrals of the response function over the age range with tracer and the whole response function yields the ratio of water with tracer to total flow of water. That ratio is a tracer‐dependent function of time. Transport modelling of SF₆ tracer done with MT3D code yielded initially large discrepancies between calculated and measured tracer concentrations. Some discrepancies remained even after calibration of the transport model with SF₆. Simulation of tritium contents with a calibrated transport model yielded reasonable agreement with measured contents in some wells and indicated a need for further investigations, particularly in the eastern part of the aquifer. The existence of distinct hydrochemical zones is consistent with the tracer data; young waters with measurable ³H and SF₆ contents are aerobic and of HCO₃ Ca or HCO₃ SO₄ Ca types. Slightly elevated Na and Cl contents, as well as the highest concentrations of SO₄ and NO₃ within this zone are due to anthropogenic influences. Anaerobic conditions prevail in the far field, under the confining cover, where pre‐bomb era Holocene waters dominate. In that zone, dissolved oxygen, NO₃ and U contents are reduced, and Fe, Mn and NH₄ contents increase. In the third zone, early Holocene and glacial waters occur. They are of HCO₃ Ca Na or HCO₃ Na types, with TDS values higher than 1 g l⁻¹ and Na content higher than 200 mg l⁻¹, due to either small admixtures of ascending or diffusing older water or freshening of marine sediments, a process that is probably occurring till the present time. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.