Cycle 23 Variation in Solar Flare Productivity

The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21?–?24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare productivity over the interval 1975?–?2012. The annual averages of flare productivity remained approximately constant during cycles 21 and 22, at about two reported M- or X-flares per region, but then increased significantly in the declining phase of cycle 23 (the years 2004?–?2005). We have confirmed this by using the independent RHESSI flare catalog to check the NOAA events listings where possible. We note that this measure of solar activity does not correlate with the solar cycle. The anomalous peak in flare productivity immediately preceded the long solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24.     

High energetic solar proton flares on the declining phase of solar cycle 22

The year 1991 is a part of the declining phase of the solar cycle 22, during which high energetic flares have been produced by active regions NOAA/USAF 6659 in June. The associated solar proton events have affected the Earth environment and their proton fluxes have been measured by GOES space craft. The evaluation of solar activity during the first half of June 1991, have been carried out by applying a method for high energetic solar flares prediction on the flares of June 1991. The method depends on cumulative summation curves according to observed H-alpha flares, X-ray bursts, in the active region 6659 during one rotation when the energetic solar flares of June 1991 have occurred. It has been found that the steep trend of increased activity sets on several tens of hours prior to the occurrence of the energetic flare, which can be used, together with other methods, for forecasts of major flares. All the used data at the present work are received from NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA.     

The Characteristics of the X-ray Flares (1-8, GOES) of the Different Classes and Their Variations in Two Cycles of Solar Activity

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Multi-timescale solar cycles and the possible implications

Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700–2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012–2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as ≥ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.     

North-south distribution of solar flares during cycle 23

In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of solar flares in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun that occurred during the period 1996 to 2003. This period of investigation includes the ascending phase, the maximum and part of the descending phase of solar cycle 23. It is revealed that the flare activity during this cycle is low compared to the previous solar cycle, indicating the violation of Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. The distribution of flares with respect to heliographic latitudes shows a significant asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere which is maximum during the minimum phase of the solar cycle. The present study indicates that the activity dominates the northern hemisphere in general during the rising phase of the cycle (1997–2000). The dominance of northern hemisphere shifted towards the southern hemisphere after the solar maximum in 2000 and remained there in the successive years. Although the annual variations in the asymmetry time series during cycle 23 are quite different from cycle 22, they are comparable to cycle 21.     

XUV Photometer System (XPS): Solar Variations during the SORCE Mission

The solar soft X-ray (XUV) radiation is important for upper atmosphere studies as it is one of the primary energy inputs and is highly variable. The XUV Photometer System (XPS) aboard the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) has been measuring the solar XUV irradiance since March 2003 with a time cadence of 10 s and with about 70% duty cycle. The XPS measurements are between 0.1 and 34 nm and additionally the bright hydrogen emission at 121.6 nm. The XUV radiation varies by a factor of ∼2 with a period of ∼27 days that is due to the modulation of the active regions on the rotating Sun. The SORCE mission has observed over 20 solar rotations during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The solar XUV irradiance also varies by more than a factor of 10 during the large X-class flares observed during the May–June 2003, October–November 2003, and July 2004 solar storm periods. There were 7 large X-class flares during the May–June 2003 storm period, 11 X-class flares during the October–November 2003 storm period, and 6 X-class flares during the July 2004 storm period. The X28 flare on 4 November 2003 is the largest flare since GOES began its solar X-ray measurements in 1976. The XUV variations during the X-class flares are as large as the expected solar cycle variations.     

Study of Cosmic-Ray Intensity Variations Associated with Anomalous,Long-Duration High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2003

High-speed solar wind streams (HSWS) were identified for solar cycles 22 and 23 (up to 2004). Preliminarily, HSWS were classified in three groups according to their continuous period of occurrence. In the declining phase of solar cycle 23, 2003 is found to be anomalous, showing a very large number of HSWS events of long duration (> ten days). We have studied the effect of HSWS on the cosmic-ray intensity as well as their relationship with geomagnetic disturbance index Ap on yearly, daily, and hourly bases. The yearly average of solar-wind speed was also found to be maximum in 2003. Being within the declining phase of solar activity, the occurrence of solar flares in 2003 is quite low. In particular during HSWS, no solar flares have been observed. Associations with cosmic-ray changes do not support the notion that the HSWS are usually effective in producing significant cosmic-ray decreases. Out of 12 HSWS events observed during the period 2002 (December) to 2003, four events of significant cosmic-ray decreases at all the stations have been selected for further analysis. The cosmic-ray intensity has been found to decrease during the first phase of the event (first five days of HSWS) at all three neutron-monitor stations situated at different latitudes with different cutoff rigidities. The rigidity spectra of observed decreases in cosmic-ray intensity for these four cases have been found to be significantly different than that of Fds (Forbush decrease). In two cases the spectra are softer, whereas in the other two they are harder than that of Fds. However, if the average of all four events is considered together then the spectra of the decrease in cosmic rays during HSWS exactly match that of Fds. Such a result implies that initially individual events should be considered, instead of combining them together, as was done earlier. The Ap index is also found to generally increase in the first phase of the event. However, the four events selected on the basis of cosmic-ray decrease are not always associated with enhanced values of the Ap index. As such, the significance of our study is that further detailed investigations for much longer periods and on an event-by-event basis is required to understand the effect of coronal-hole-associated HSWS.     

第22和23太阳周太阳活动预测

本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.     

Multifractality as a Measure of Complexity in Solar Flare Activity

In this paper we use the notion of multifractality to describe the complexity in Hα flare activity during the solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. Both northern and southern hemisphere flare indices are analyzed. Multifractal behavior of the flare activity is characterized by calculating the singularity spectrum of the daily flare index time series in terms of the Hölder exponent. The broadness of the singularity spectrum gives a measure of the degree of multifractality or complexity in the flare index data. The broader the spectrum, the richer and more complex is the structure with a higher degree of multifractality. Using this broadness measure, complexity in the flare index data is compared between the northern and southern hemispheres in each of the three cycles, and among the three cycles in each of the two hemispheres. Other parameters of the singularity spectrum can also provide information about the fractal properties of the flare index data. For instance, an asymmetry to the left or right in the singularity spectrum indicates a dominance of high or low fractal exponents, respectively, reflecting a relative abundance of large or small fluctuations in the total energy emitted by the flares. Our results reveal that in the even (22nd) cycle the singularity spectra are very similar for the northern and southern hemispheres, whereas in the odd cycles (21st and 23rd) they differ significantly. In particular, we find that in cycle 21, the northern hemisphere flare index data have higher complexity than its southern counterpart, with an opposite pattern prevailing in cycle 23. Furthermore, small-scale fluctuations in the flare index time series are predominant in the northern hemisphere in the 21st cycle and are predominant in the southern hemisphere in the 23rd cycle. Based on these findings one might suggest that, from cycle to cycle, there exists a smooth switching between the northern and southern hemispheres in the multifractality of the flaring process. This new observational result may bring an insight into the mechanisms of the solar dynamo operation and may also be useful for forecasting solar cycles.     

22周上升相日面各经度带的活动规律

本文回顾了１９８３年以来一些对太阳活动的谱分析结果。大致可分为两种规律：在太阳活动１１年周期的上升相一般呈现８０天左右的周期。下降相呈现１５０天左右的周期。这些规律均是由太阳全日面总体活动指数得到的谱分析结果。文中将第２２周上升段（１９８７．１．１—１９８８．７．３１）的太阳黑子群和Ｘ射线耀斑按经度带作了极大熵谱估计。结果表明，各经度带的活动规律不同，同一经度带内，太阳黑子群和Ｘ射线耀斑的出现规律也不尽相同。这种将事件按经度带分布得到的活动规律对事件本身的中期预报将会有实际应用价值。     

Solar Modulation of Cosmic Rays during the Declining and Minimum Phases of Solar Cycle 23: Comparison with Past Three Solar Cycles

We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23.     

Phase Relationship Between Sunspot Number, Flare Index and Solar Radio Flux

To understand better the variation of solar activity indicators originated at different layers of the solar atmosphere with respect to sunspot cycles, we carried out a study of phase relationship between sunspot number, flare index and solar radio flux at 2800 MHz from January 1966 to May 2008 by using cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The flare index and sunspot number have synchronous phase for cycles 21 and 22 in the northern hemisphere and for cycle 20 in the southern hemisphere. (2) The flare index has a noticeable time lead with respect to sunspot number for cycles 20 and 23 in the northern hemisphere and for cycles 22 and 23 in the southern hemisphere. (3) For the entire Sun, the flare index has a noticeable time lead for cycles 20 and 23, a time lag for cycle 21, and no time lag or time lead for cycle 22 with respect to sunspot number. (4) The solar radio flux has a time lag for cycles 22 and 23 and no time lag or time lead for cycles 20 and 21 with respect to sunspot number. (5) For the four cycles, the sunspot number and flare index in the northern hemisphere are all leading to the ones in the southern hemisphere. These results may be instructive to the physical processes of flare energy storage and dissipation.     

Characteristics of the solar flares and their spatial distribution in cycle 22 and the first half of cycle 23

This paper considers 3246 solar flares in the line H_α, which were accompanied by X-ray emission with a power f ≥ 5 × 10^?6 Wm^?2 in the solar cycle 22 (CR1797-CR1864). During 33 rotations, the specific power of X-ray emission of the flares increased monotonically by a factor of 4 from the cycle minimum up to its first maximum. The number of flares in each solar turnover rises non-monotonically and disproportionately to the relative number of sunspots. For the entire interval of time, one can identify several longitudinal intervals with increased flare activity. They exist during 5–10 rotations. The characteristics of the flares for 33 rotations in cycles 22 and 23 (CR1797-CR1961) are compared. It is concluded that the Sun is more active in cycle 22 than in cycle 23.     

Solar-cycle phenomena in cosmic-ray intensity: Differences between even and odd cycles

Cosmic-ray intensity data for the period 1964–1985 covering two solar cycles are used to investigate the solar activity behaviour in relation to cosmic-ray modulation. A detailed statistical analysis of them shows a large time-lag of about one and half years between cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity (as indicated by sunspot number, solar flares and high-speed solar-wind streams) during the 21st solar cycle appearing for a first time. This lag indicates the very high activity level of this solar cycle estimating the size of the modulating region to the unambiguous value of 180 AU. The account of the solar-wind speed in the 11-year variation significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic-rays to the value of 40 AU.A comparison with the behaviour of the previous solar cycle establishes a distinction between even and odd solar cycles. This is explained in terms of different contributions of drift, convection and diffusion to the whole modulation mechanism during even and odd solar cycles.     

Statistical properties of X-class flares and their relationship with super active regions during solar cycles 21–23

We investigate the statistical distribution of X-class flares and their relationship with super active regions (SARs) during solar cycles 21–23. Analysis results show that X1.0–X1.9 flares accounted for 52.71 % of all X-class flares, with X2.0–X2.9 flares at 20.59 %, X3.0–X4.9 at 13.57 %, X5–X9.9 at 8.37 % and ≥X10 at 4.75 %. All X-class flares occurred around the solar maximum during solar cycle 22, while in solar cycle 23, X-class flares were scattered in distribution. In solar cycle 21, X-class flares were distributed neither in a concentrated manner like cycle 22 nor in a scattered manner as cycle 23. During solar cycles 21–23, 32.2 % of the X1.0–X1.9 flares, 31.9 % of the X2.0–X2.9 flares, 43.3 % of the X3.0–X4.9 flares, 81.08 % of the X5.0–X9.9 flares, and 95.2 % of the ≥X10 flares were produced by SARs.     

Long- and Mid-Term Variations of the Soft X-ray Flare Type in Solar Cycles

Using data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) spacecraft in the 1?–?8 Å wavelength range for Solar Cycles 23, 24, and part of Cycles 21 and 22, we compare mean temporal parameters (rise and decay times, and duration) and the proportion of impulsive short-duration events (SDE) and gradual long-duration events (LDE) among C- and ≥?M1.0-class flares. It is found that the fraction of the SDE ≥?M1.0-class flares (including spikes) in Cycle 24 exceeds that in Cycle 23 in all three temporal parameters at the maximum phase and in the decay time during the ascending cycle phase. However, Cycles 23 and 24 barely differ in the fraction of the SDE C-class flares. The temporal parameters of SDEs, their fraction, and consequently the relationship between the SDE and LDE flares do not remain constant, but reveal regular changes within individual cycles and during the transition from one cycle to another. In all phases of all four cycles, these changes have the character of pronounced, large-amplitude “quasi-biennial” oscillations (QBOs). In different cycles and at the separate phases of individual cycles, such QBOs are superimposed on various systematic trends displayed by the analyzed temporal flare parameters. In Cycle 24, the fraction of the SDE ≥?M1.0-class flares from the N- and S-hemispheres displays the most pronounced synchronous QBOs. The QBO amplitude and general variability of the intense ≥?M1.0-class flares almost always markedly exceeds those of the moderate C-class flares. The ordered quantitative and qualitative variations of the flare type revealed in the course of the solar cycles are discussed within the framework of the concept that the SDE flares are associated mainly with small sunspots (including those in developed active regions) and that small and large sunspots behave differently during cycles and form two distinct populations.     

Lasco and eit Observations of the Bastille day 2000 Solar Storm

The period of 10–14 July 2000 saw a large number of energetic solar events ending with a very energetic flare that was associated with a large solar energetic particle event and a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that produced the largest geomagnetic disturbance since 1989. This paper tries to summarize the complex coronal activity observed during this period, in order to establish a background for a number of papers in this topical issue. The GOES X-ray data are presented. Data animations of observations from EIT and LASCO C2 and C3 are presented on the accompanying CD-ROM. The observations around the time of the three X-class flares are considered. EIT observations of the Bastille Day flare show coronal brightening followed by dimming. LASCO had good data coverage for all three events. For one of the flares, no coronal response was seen. The other two flares are associated with halo CMEs. The timing suggests that the start of the flares and CMEs are simultaneous to approximately 30 min. Analysis of the LASCO and EIT images following the Bastille Day flare show the arrival of energetic particles at SOHO at approximately 10:41 UT on 14 July. Individual features of these CMEs have been tracked and the height–time plots used to estimate the dynamics of the CMEs. The initial speed and deceleration of the halo CMEs estimated from the fitting of height–time plots are compared with the in-situ observations at L1. The three flares are identified as the solar sources of three shocks observed at 1 AU. Finally, it is stressed that global heliospheric effects during periods of exceptional activity should consider a cumulative scenario rather than events in isolation.     

Evolution and flare productivity of active regions in October–November 2003

In the current solar cycle, the concentration of flare activity peaked during the period from October 19 to November 5, 2003, 3.5 years after the maximum point of the current solar-activity cycle. During this time, 56 high-(16) and medium-class flares occurred on the Sun, including 11 X flares. The flux of every such flare exceeded by a factor of 30 to 600 the 1–8 Å soft X-ray background flux of the entire Sun during flare-free periods. The disturbances caused by these flares produced six major S2-to S4-level proton events and four G1-to G5-class magnetic storms in the Earth’s space environment. Among the solar events observed were the most powerful X-ray flare of the current solar cycle, the eighth solar proton event in terms of particle flux during the entire history of observations, and the seventh magnetic storm in terms of Ap index. The most powerful flare resulted in the fastest coronal mass ejection during the current solar cycle with the solar plasma moving through interplanetary space at a velocity of 10⁶ km/s, which is about four times higher than the average velocity. Severe magnetic storms during the period from September 29 through October 3 posed a lot of problems for research and technological satellites (Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Aqua, Chandra, Chips, Cluster, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 9, 10, and 12, etc.) and spacecraft in interplanetary space (Mars Explorer Rover and Microwave Anisotropy Probe). The Advanced Earth Observing Satellite 2 (ADEOS 2), a Japanese satellite for monitoring the Earth’s environment, was disabled at the time of the arrival of the powerful interplanetary shock from the superflare of October 28, 2003. During this period, the ISS astronauts were forced to escape into the aft part of the station five times, which ensured the strongest protection against radiation. This paper is dedicated to the study of the solar situation and individual flare events.     

The X-ray coronae of solitary late-type stars

For solar cycles 20 and 21, the longitudinal distribution of the D, G, and H-type solar flares which are related to the final phases of active region evolution, have been analysed for the northern and the southern hemispheres separately. One active zone has been found for D, G, and H-type flares, and one more active zone has been found for the H-type flares of the northern hemisphere for cycle 20. Two active zones have been found for the D and H-type flares of the northern hemisphere for cycle 21. Southern-hemisphere flares are concentrated in two active zones for cycle 20. The active zone in the northern hemisphere, which rotates with a synodic period of about 26.73 days, produced 30% of the examined D-type flares during cycle 20 and persisted in the same position during the two solar cycles, 20 and 21. The active zone in the southern hemisphere rotated with a synodic period of about 27.99 days. Only the active zone producing D-type flares persisted in the same position during the two solar cycles.