双目标耦合不确定性模糊模式识别模型

本文在陈守煜建立的模糊模式识别理论的构架基础上,将加权广义距离与模糊熵最小作为模式识别的复合目标函数,建立了考虑随机和模糊不确定性,使目标函数最小的新型模糊模式识别耦合模型。应用此模型对我国12个湖库的富营养化程度进行综合评价,并与原模型的双目标结果进行比较,说明本文建立的模型考虑了不确定性因素的优越性。     

Probability of serviceability failure in a braced excavation in a spatially random field: Fuzzy finite element approach

A simplified framework is proposed for evaluating the probability of “serviceability failure” in a braced excavation in a spatially random field. Here, the “serviceability failure” is said to occur when the excavation-induced wall or ground movement exceeds specified limiting values. Knowledge of this probability can aid in engineering decision-making to prevent damage to adjacent infrastructures. The proposed framework consists of five elements: (1) finite element method (FEM) for analyzing wall and ground responses in a braced excavation, (2) fuzzy set modeling of parameter uncertainty, (3) spatial averaging technique for handling spatial variability, (4) vertex method for processing fuzzy input through FEM model, and (5) interpretation of fuzzy output. The proposed framework is demonstrated through a well-documented case history. The results show the proposed framework is simple and effective for assessing the probability of serviceability failure in a braced excavation in a spatially random field. To focus on the proposed fuzzy FEM approach, the scope of this paper is limited to one-dimensional modeling of spatial variability with an assumed exponential autocorrelation function.     

Probabilistic Fuzzy Logic Modeling: Quantifying Uncertainty of Mineral Prospectivity Models Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Significant uncertainties are associated with the definition of both the exploration targeting criteria and computational algorithms used to generate mineral prospectivity maps. In prospectivity modeling, the input and computational uncertainties are generally made implicit, by making a series of best-guess or best-fit decisions, on the basis of incomplete and imprecise information. The individual uncertainties are then compounded and propagated into the final prospectivity map as an implicit combined uncertainty which is impossible to directly analyze and use for decision making. This paper proposes a new approach to explicitly define uncertainties of individual targeting criteria and propagate them through a computational algorithm to evaluate the combined uncertainty of a prospectivity map. Applied to fuzzy logic prospectivity models, this approach involves replacing point estimates of fuzzy membership values by statistical distributions deemed representative of likely variability of the corresponding fuzzy membership values. Uncertainty is then propagated through a fuzzy logic inference system by applying Monte Carlo simulations. A final prospectivity map is represented by a grid of statistical distributions of fuzzy prospectivity. Such modeling of uncertainty in prospectivity analyses allows better definition of exploration target quality, as understanding of uncertainty is consistently captured, propagated and visualized in a transparent manner. The explicit uncertainty information of prospectivity maps can support further risk analysis and decision making. The proposed probabilistic fuzzy logic approach can be used in any area of geosciences to model uncertainty of complex fuzzy systems.     

随机-模糊处理方法在岩石力学指标统计及岩组划分中的应用

探讨了随机 模糊处理方法在岩石力学指标统计和岩组定量划分中的应用。文中对计算中的隶属函数取值及迭代方式进行了深入讨论。通过计算结果的比较分析, 认为随机 模糊处理方法更符合实际, 并优于其他方法。最后作者提出了岩组定性划分 岩石样本参数的随机 模糊统计分析 岩组定量划分及参数重新统计的分析程序。     

一种改进的公路边坡稳定性模糊评价方法研究

考虑影响公路边坡稳定性信息的不完整性、随机性和模糊性,以最大熵原理和工程模糊集理论为基础,并采用综合赋权法确定指标权重,提出了一种改进的公路边坡稳定性模糊评价方法。该模型充分利用影响因素的信息,以广义加权距离表示待评价样本与标准样本的差异,从优化条件中获得相对隶属度,并依据加权平均原则对边坡样本等级进行识别。该模型应用于常吉和吉怀高速公路边坡稳定性评价中,将评价结果与模糊综合模型和属性识别模型的结果以及边坡实际情况进行对比验证,体现了其较好的一致性,并且结果更合理。同时,该模型具有较小的信息熵值,表明其评价的不确定性小,可靠性较高,是一种边坡稳定性评价分析新方法,可在相关工程领域中应用推广。     

Numerical modeling of soil–structure interface of a concrete-faced rockfill dam

Concrete-faced rockfill dams (CFRD) are widely used in large-scale hydraulic projects. The face slab, the key seepage-proof structure of great concern, has a strong interaction with the neighboring gravel cushion layer due to a significant difference in their stiffness. An elasto-plasticity damage interface element, a numerical format of the EPDI model, is described for numerical analysis of a CFRD that can trace the separation and re-contact between the face slab and the cushion layer at the interface. As verified by simulating slide block and direct shear interface tests, this element was confirmed to capture effectively the primary monotonic and cyclic behaviors of the interface. This element can easily be extended to the finite element method (FEM) programs that involve the Goodman interface element. The analysis of a typical CFRD showed that the interface model describes a significant effect on the stress response of the face slab under different conditions, including dam construction, water storage, and earthquake. Treatments of the cushion layer, such as an asphalt layer, changed the behavior of the interface between it and the face slab, which resulted in a significant effect on the stress response of the face slab. The top of the face slab exhibited a significant separation from the cushion layer during construction, induced mainly by construction of the neighboring dam body.     

基于盲数理论的边坡安全稳定分析研究

岩土工程中的各种信息普遍存在着随机性、模糊性、灰性及未确知性等不确定性,由于实际情况的复杂和试验资料的不足,计算参数往往是多种不确定性的混合体。针对这一特点,利用盲数来表达计算参数的不确定性,将盲信息的数学理论引入到边坡稳定的刚体极限平衡计算方法中,提出了一种安全系数计算的新方法。运用盲数运算法则计算出安全系数在不同的取值区间内的可信度,从而为判断边坡的稳定状态提供了更全面的依据,克服了传统方法描述过于绝对化的问题。实例研究表明,盲数在边坡稳定分析中能更好地考虑参数的不确定性情况,得到的结果更可靠,有较好的实用价值。     

基于安全熵的边坡稳定性分析

熵的概念源于热力学,是一种多目标决策的有效方法,是系统不确定性的一个度量。熵已经广泛应用于众多学科,但是应用于地质学,尤其是用来进行边坡稳定性评价的实例却很少。作者基于关系矩阵及信息熵概念提出的边坡安全熵稳定性评价方法,有效地结合了关系矩阵对各种影响边坡稳定性因素的敏感性及信息熵对边坡紊乱度的量化优点,综合考虑边坡地质、环境及工程因素的基础上,对边坡的稳定性状态作出客观的评价。经在龙滩水电站左岸边坡工程稳定性评价中应用,并与解析计算分析及地质资料分析结果对比,具有很好的相应性。     

灌区运行状况综合评价的方法研究

研究了使用模糊综合评价和灰色系统评价对灌区的运行状况进行综合评价的方法。在确定权重时,运用了博弈论方法将主观赋权法(层次分析法)和客观赋权法(熵值法)进行集化、融合,使得到的综合权重与各单一权重向量之间的偏差最小,该法消除了单一权重法的片面性,操作简便,便于实际应用。以山东省部分灌区为例,运用上述方法对其进行综合排序,结果表明,其排序结果基本一致,说明将这两种方法运用到灌区综合评价中是切实可行的。     

边坡工程可靠性分析的最大熵方法

边坡工程可靠性分析的最大熵方法,利用已有样本的部分信息来使熵最大化,充分利用了随机变量的高阶矩信息,由样本矩来推断边坡可靠性功能函数的概率密度函数,求解边坡的破坏概率。该方法对基本随机变量的分布没有特别要求,避免了常规方法计算过程中在迭代点处对非正态随机变量进行近似当量正态化处理的缺陷。通常,功能函数的真实概率密度函数很难、甚至无法求得,将Pearson曲线族引入岩土参数随机变量高阶矩的求解当中,可以很容易地得到功能函数的高阶中心矩,然后,基于最大熵原理拟合得到功能函数的最大熵密度函数,采用区间截断法和高斯-克朗罗德数值积分法分别确定最大熵密度函数的拉格郎日系数和边坡的破坏概率。算例分析结果表明:该方法计算效率高,结果可靠,克服了传统方法求解过程复杂、精度低的缺点,将其应用于工程边坡的可靠性分析当中,发展潜力大,具有一定的应用前景和实用价值。     

Settlement analysis of the Shuibuya concrete-face rockfill dam

Settlement is one of the most important deformation characteristics of a high concrete-face rockfill dam (CFRD) and is regarded as a key indicator of dam safety. The time-dependent settlement behavior of the Shuibuya CFRD is studied on the basis of in situ settlement-monitoring records and displacement back-analysis. The goal of this work is to characterize actual deformation of the dam and to verify the back-analysis method used in this paper. The settlement-monitoring records were from seven control stations at the crest and 38 monitoring points inside the body of the dam and covered the construction period, the initial filling of the reservoir and 2 years of operation. A displacement back-analysis for parameters is performed by hybrid generic algorithms (HGAs) and finite element method (FEM). Comparative studies of monitoring data and back-analysis show good agreement between measured settlements and computed settlements. Furthermore, the deformation in the next 3 years is predicted on the basis of back-analysis. Overall, it is demonstrated that the deformation of the Shuibuya CFRD is basically stable and that the technique used to control the dam deformation is successful.     

节理岩体力学性能不确定性分析方法研究

基于连续介质损伤力学框架,通过损伤张量和有效应力来描述节理岩体的力学性能,自主研发了基于损伤力学模型的有限元程序（CD-FEM）,用于节理岩体等效力学性能研究。同时,采用Karhunen-Loeve（K-L）展开来分解随机输入场,用混沌多项式来表示随机输出场,采用概率配点法生成配点,再由连续损伤有限元分析系统CD-FEM求解确定性方程组,最终得到输出域的统计数据,从而提出了一种将随机分析与基于连续损伤力学模型的数值分析方法解耦进行节理岩体不确定性力学行为分析的方法。利用该方法,对一典型节理岩体在加载条件下的力学行为进行不确定性分析,并与蒙特卡罗方法进行对比,结果表明,所提方法的计算量大大减少,极大地提高了节理岩体力学性能不确定性分析的效率,可应用于对节理岩体在不同载荷条件下的不确定性进行分析。     

A reconstruction method for three‐dimensional pore space using multiple‐point geology statistic based on statistical pattern recognition and microstructure characterization

To predict the macroscopic properties (e.g., transport, electromagnetic, and mechanical properties) of porous media, it is necessary to have a three‐dimensional (3D) representation of porous media. We reconstruct the geologically realistic 3D structure of Fontainebleau sandstone based on the two‐dimensional (2D) thin sections by using the multiple‐point statistics method. For this method, the size of template is an important parameter that reflects the perceived scale of spatial structure of porous media. In this paper, we take advantage of entropy method to obtain the appropriate size of the template, which is proven to be correct and feasible. The reconstruction method proposed by us combines successive 2D MPS simulations as well as 3D MPS simulation, which takes account into the pore structure information (e.g., heterogeneity and connectivity) both intralayer and interlayer. This reconstruction method is tested on Fontainebleau sandstone for which 3D images from micro‐CT scanning are available. Applying local percolation theory analysis, this new approach can depict the expected patterns of geological heterogeneities. In addition, it also can well reproduce a high degree of connectivity of the pore space better than other reconstruction methods based on lower‐order statistics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架

基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。     

Three‐dimensional responses of buried corrugated pipes and ANN‐based method for predicting pipe deflections

This study investigated localized responses, such as circumferential stresses, on corrugation and pipe deflections. Also, this study examined the effect of corrugation geometry on the overall and localized response of corrugated pipes with refined three‐dimensional modeling of the entire soil–pipe interaction system, including corrugation. To investigate the availability of the traditional two‐dimensional method, the results from the three‐dimensional finite element method (FEM) were compared with those from the two‐dimensional FEM. The soil–pipe modeling techniques of this study were verified by comparing the FEM results by Utah State University and analytical results. An artificial neural network (ANN)‐based model to predict vertical deflections of buried corrugated pipes was developed to overcome the shortcomings of existing methods and obtain results that are close to the level of accuracy of FEM results. In order to train an ANN, analyses on a large amount of data were executed with various standardized pipe geometries and burial depths regulated by the Korea Highway Corporation using the two‐dimensional FEM verified in this study. The widely used back propagation algorithm was adopted. The ANN‐based model developed in this study was shown to be an effective tool by comparing the results with test data and sensitivity analyses were executed based on the data from the developed ANN. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

寒区渠基黏土热参数最优概率分布

为分析寒区渠基黏土热参数的随机分布特征及概率分布模型,以寒区渠基黏土的导热系数为样本,结合经典分布拟合法、多项式逼近法、最大熵法和正态信息扩散法,分别对寒区渠基黏土热参数的概率分布规律进行了研究。首先通过分析热参数的离散性,并比较概率分布曲线、拟合检验值和累计概率分布值,对不同方法描述热参数随机性的优劣进行了评价;然后,基于寒区渠基黏土热学参数对温度的敏感性,提出了一个可以达到理想拟合精度的寒区渠基黏土热参数概率推断的区间取值标准。研究结果表明：寒区渠基黏土的热参数具有随机变量的特征;正态信息扩散法可以描述热参数样本的随机波动性;在4种方法中,正态信息扩散法的拟合精度最高。使用3.5σ法,将[μ-3.5σ,μ+3.5σ]（μ为随机变量的均值,σ为标准差）作为概率函数推断时的取值区间,同时考虑偏度的影响,可使得累计概率值达到1.000 0的精度,能够较准确地推断热参数的概率分布函数。     

模糊数学在边坡稳定分析中的应用

边坡稳定性分析是一个非常复杂的不确定问题,其不确定性主要有两种：随机不确定和模糊不确定。实践证明,模糊不确定是比随机不确定更为深刻的不确定性。综述了模糊数学在边坡稳定性分析中的应用,重点阐述了模糊综合评判、模糊参数非概率稳定性分析和模糊随机可靠度的原理、特点及研究现状。针对模糊理论和边坡稳定自身的特点及其研究现状,对模糊数学在边坡稳定性分析应用中存在的问题及未来的发展方向进行了分析,以期为相关研究提供有益借鉴。     

基于不确定性的地下水污染风险评价研究进展

地下水污染风险研究在工程决策中具有重要意义。但地下水系统本身具有各种不确定性,基于这些不确定性的地下水污染风险评价也因此具有不确定性,而且贯穿整个地下水污染风险评价过程。所以,进行不确定性分析是对地下水污染风险进行评价时的必要步骤。一般来讲,基于不确定性分析的地下水污染风险评价结果更可靠,因此也更具有实用价值。本文在对不确定性进行分类（随机不确定性和模糊不确定性）的基础上,通过大量文献调研和分析,对目前国内外用于地下水污染风险评价分析的不确定性分析方法（包括随机理论方法、模糊理论方法、随机-模糊耦合方法等）进行了归纳总结,并基于各种方法目前的研究现状,分析了不确定性理论在地下水污染风险评价研究中的发展前景。     

Effect of spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties on bearing capacity of strip footing

Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties is presented and applied to study the bearing capacity of spatially random soil with different autocorrelation distances in the vertical and horizontal directions. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two‐dimensional cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen–Loève expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function, an autocorrelation function, and cross‐correlation coefficients. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses was performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to geotechnical problems and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiscale insights into classical geomechanics problems

We pay a revisit to some classical geomechanics problems using a novel computational multiscale modelling approach. The multiscale approach employs a hierarchical coupling of the finite element method (FEM) and the discrete element method. It solves a boundary value problem at the continuum scale by FEM and derives the material point response from the discrete element method simulation attached to each Gauss point of the FEM mesh. The multiscale modelling framework not only helps successfully bypass phenomenological constitutive assumptions as required in conventional modelling approaches but also facilitates effective cross‐scale interpretation and understanding of soil behaviour. We examine the classical retaining wall and footing problems by this method and demonstrate that the simulating results can be well validated and verified by their analytical solutions. Furthermore, the study sheds novel multiscale insights into these classical problems and offers a new tool for geotechnical engineers to design and analyse geotechnical applications based directly upon particle‐level information of soils. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.