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1.
ABSTRACT

Selecting the best structure and parameterization of rainfall–runoff models is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors. In this study, the “Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo” (MISDc) was tested on 63 mountainous catchments in the western Po Valley (Italy) and the optimal model parameters were regionalized using different strategies. The model performance was evaluated through several indexes analysing hydrological regime, high-flow condition and flow–duration curve (FDC). In general, MISDc provides a good fit behaviour with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency index greater than 0.5 for 100% and 84% of cases for calibration and validation, respectively. Concerning the regionalization, spatial proximity approach is the most accurate solution obtaining satisfactory performance. Lastly, the predicted FDCs showed an excellent similarity with the observed ones. Results encourage to apply MISDc over the study area for flood forecasting and for assessing water resources availability thanks to the modest computational efforts and data requirements.  相似文献   

2.
The study regards an evaluation of site effects on and near the Monte Po hill, located in the north-eastern part of the city of Catania (Italy), an area at high seismic risk. At the beginning of 2007 a seismic station was located in a school building, situated at the slope toe, but no seismic events have been recorded as yet. Therefore, synthetic seismograms have been used to evaluate the ground response analysis at the surface. Because the average slope is moderate (less than 15°), 1-D computer codes have been used to model the equivalent-linear earthquake site response analyses of layered hill deposits, as generally performed by professionals. However, the slope response has also been analysed in greater detail, using a 2-D computer code and the soil characterisation has been evaluated accurately by means of borings, Down-Hole tests, SDMT tests and laboratory tests. Comparing 1-D with 2-D results the stratigraphic site amplification and the Topographic Aggravation Factor (TAF) have also been computed. The aim of the study is that it will form a basis for the design of works to remediate the damage caused by a landslide reactivated by the earthquake in Eastern Sicily on December 13, 1990 (ML=5.4).  相似文献   

3.
SH evaluation in Po Plain region is revisited with a view to: ( $a)$ updating available seismic source and ground motion attenuation models with recent data and testing the sensitivity of the results, ( $b)$ exploiting available non-stationary models to check their predictive performance at particular sites and, ( $c)$ handling the ground motion hazard generated by composite fault systems. Update of area source models and GMPEs does not strongly affect SH evaluated at representative sites, while usefulness of predictions derived from non-stationary models needs to be assessed on a site-by-site basis. A hybrid (deterministic-probabilistic) approach seems to be a promising tool for assessing site-specific hazard contributed by composite sources.  相似文献   

4.
Due to limited in situ data and diagnostic numerical models, the summer circulation structure and formation mechanism in the Beibu Gulf have always been in controversy in the past 50 years. Therefore, a new three-dimensional hindcast model was built within the northwestern South China Sea(SCS), forced with the daily averaged wind, heat flux, lateral flux, as well as tidal harmonic and eight major rivers discharges. And the east boundary was set up far away off the Qiongzhou Strait(QS). Lastly, the model results were consistent with not only the synchronous observation data from the project 908 but also the historical observed data. As a result, the summer circulation structure was revealed that the southern Gulf was occupied by an anticyclonic eddy whereas the northern Gulf was dominated by a cyclonic gyre. Although the circulation major structure was stable, its area and strength had yearly and monthly oscillation. The other three sensitive experiments indicated that the circulations in the southern and northern Gulf were driven by the SCS circulation and monsoon wind, respectively. After the theoretical analysis of the potential vorticity budget, it was further revealed the circulation in the northern Gulf was driven by the positive wind stress curl in summer. Besides, the river discharge was also significant as the vertical circulation had two layer structures outside the mouth of the Red River. Generally, this work calls for the further research on other subjects, such as ocean biogeochemical or marine fisheries.  相似文献   

5.
6.
We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is, in fact, rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities, and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because (a) the region is geologically very diverse, and (b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene–Pleistocene sediments, and thus can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end, we subdivided them into four main, homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

7.
南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系   总被引:44,自引:7,他引:44       下载免费PDF全文
范可 《地球物理学报》2006,49(3):672-679
本文对长江中下游夏季旱涝年前期(3、4、5月的季节平均)和同期(6、7、8月的季节平均)的南半球环流作对比分析,探讨南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系. 结果表明前期和同期南半球环流均有显著差异,春季南极涛动对长江中下游旱涝的影响较夏季显著,南半球副热带高压在春、夏两季中有很好季节持续性. 因此,春季南半球环流异常可以作为长江中下游夏季旱涝主要短期气候预测因子. 南、北半球中高纬环流相互作用是长江中下游夏季降水的一个重要因素,其可能的联系机制是从南半球高纬到北半球东亚沿岸经向分布的正压遥相关. 研究中还发现在长江中下游的涝年,整个对流层中南半球春、夏两季有持续增温,这说明了南北半球的温度梯度减弱也是东亚夏季风减弱的原因之一.  相似文献   

8.
In recent years, eutrophic phenomena have frequently been reported in the Italian coastal waters of the northern Adriatic Sea. The aim of the present study was to determine that the phytoplankton blooms occurring along the Italian coastline in the area of Pesaro are caused by the Po River waters. In fact between October and December 2000 the nutrient load flushed into the sea from local rivers is not significant (phosphorus 10 tons and nitrogen 110 tons), instead N and P load from the Po River are: 650 and 8969 tons. The bloom episodes occurred during this period, at which time hypoxia developed on the sea bottom. The phytoplankton cell concentrations were 40.0 x 10(6) cells L(-1), and a significant presence of diatoms was observed. This issue is important in analysing the anthropogenic disturbances and environmental changes. The eutrophic seawater conditions were also analysed using the eutrophic index.  相似文献   

9.
The Chisone Valley is located in the internal NW Alps, in the Pinerolese District, an area characterized by present low to medium seismicity. Fine-grained sediments (sand, silt and clay with interbedded gravel) crop out in the lower Chisone Valley: they were first interpreted as glaciolacustrine deposits, and then as a lacustrine infilling of the valley floor probably due to differential uplifting of the valley mouth. Review of this data, together with new field and palynological observations, lead us to refer the lacustrine deposits to approximately the Lower Pleistocene (Villafranchian). In many outcrops, the lacustrine deposits show strong soft-sediment deformation such as convolute laminations, water-escape structures and disrupted beds, some of them associated with folds and faults (cm to dm in size); only two sites show metric to decametric folds and faults trending E-W and N-S. Detailed structural analysis conducted along a recently exposed section (Rio Gran Dubbione site) shows several soft-sediment deformation features on the limbs of mesoscale folds. Because of their intimate structural association, the origin of these minor structures seems to be connected to synsedimentary activity on reverse and normal faults (m to dm in size) affecting the lacustrine deposits in the same locality. Soft-sediment deformation features can be interpreted as possible paleoseismites. If so, the present seismicity of the Pinerolese District, which is the major area of such activity in NW Italy, cannot be considered an isolated episode in the geological evolution of the region; even if there is no supporting evidence for continuous seismicity, the deformations in the lacustrine sediments of the Chisone Valley testify to Early Pleistocene seismic activity, probably related to the recent tectonic evolution of the internal side of the NW Alps.  相似文献   

10.
Li, Pb and Tl contents of 15 primitive lava samples from the Middle Latina Valley volcanoes (southern Latium, Italy) are higher in the high-K than in the K-Series rocks, the enrichment factors roughly following the increase of the ionic size of the elements.The abundances in both series are higher than those of typical alkali basalts from oceanic environments, but similar to those of granitoid rocks. Such anomalous features may be explained as due to either crustal contamination of the parental magmas or derivation of these latter from a lithophile-enriched mantle region due to metasomatism by a lower crust-derived fluid. In both hypotheses, however, a larger involvement of crustal materials is suggested for the HKS rocks.Comparison of Li, Pb and Tl abundances in the primitive rocks of the Middle Latina Valley and Roccamonfina volcanoes shows that, unlike the KS rocks from the two districts show comparable levels and probably originated under similar conditions, the HKS rocks from the Middle Latina Valley are enriched in Li, Pb and Tl relative to their analogues from Roccamonfina. This suggests either a higher involvement of crustal materials in their genesis, or an evolution at shallower depth in the crust.  相似文献   

11.
《Continental Shelf Research》2007,27(3-4):489-505
Sediment accumulation over the past century on the continental shelf near the Po delta varies with distance from the most active distributary channels. Near the Pila and Goro distributaries, sediment accumulation is rapid (1–4 cm yr−1) and occurs in pulses. In these areas, the seabed is dominated by physical sedimentary structures that can be related to flood sedimentation. Between the two distributaries and in the southern portion of the dispersal system, sediment accumulation is slower (rates reach a minimum of 0.23 cm yr−1 at ∼50 km from the Pila mouth) and steady-state, reflecting more continuous dispersal of sediment during non-flood periods. Sedimentary strata in these locations are composed of finer (clayey silt), mottled sediment. The similarity in the spatial distribution of long-term (100-yr) sediment accumulation to deposition resulting from the 2000 flood event suggests that the Po shelf is flood-dominated.About half of the sediment delivered by the Po River on a 100-yr time scale can be accounted for in the seabed deposit within ∼50 km of the Pila mouth. The remaining sediment is likely transported southward by the prevailing circulation, and this sediment coalesces with inputs from the Apennine Rivers.  相似文献   

12.
Electric resistivity tomography (ERT), self-potential (SP), soil CO2 flux, and temperature are used to study the inner structure of La Fossa cone (Vulcano, Aeolian Islands). Nine profiles were performed across the cone with a measurement spacing of 20 m. The crater rims of La Fossa cone are underlined by sharp horizontal resistivity contrasts. SP, CO2 flux, and temperature anomalies underline these boundaries which we interpret as structural limits associated to preferential circulation of fluids. The Pietre Cotte crater and Gran Cratere crater enclose the main hydrothermal system, identified at the centre of the edifice on the base of low electrical resistivity values (<20 Ω m) and strong CO2 degassing, SP, and temperature anomalies. In the periphery, the hydrothermal activity is also visible along structural boundaries such as the Punte Nere, Forgia Vecchia, and Palizzi crater rims and at the base of the cone, on the southern side of the edifice, along a fault attributed to the NW main tectonic trend of the island. Inside the Punte Nere crater, the ERT sections show an electrical resistive body that we interpret as an intrusion or a dome. This magmatic body is reconstructed in 3D using the available ERT profiles. Its shape and position, with respect to the Pietre Cotte crater fault, allows replacing this structure in the chronology of the development of the volcano. It corresponds to a late phase of activity of the Punte Nere edifice. Considering the position of the SP, soil CO2 flux, and temperature maxima and the repartition of conductive zones related to hydrothermal circulation with respect to the main structural features, La Fossa cone could be considered as a relevant example of the strong influence of pre-existing structures on hydrothermal fluid circulation at the scale of a volcanic edifice.  相似文献   

13.
The deep well MV5A, drilled in the western part of the Larderello geothermal field, crossed a 20-cm-thick hydraulic fracture breccia unit at a depth of 1090 m below ground level (b.g.l.). This breccia occurs in a fine-grained Triassic metasandstone and consists of angular to subangular clasts of up to some centimeters in size. Pervasive alteration has affected the breccia clasts and wall rock around the breccia, with the formation of Mg–Fe chlorite. After such alteration, hydrothermal circulation caused the precipitation of two generations of calcite cement. Then, ankerite partially replaced these two calcite generations. Ankerite also precipitated in late veinlets with chlorite. Late hydrothermal activity led to the crystallization of albite, quartz and finally, anhydrite. The calcite contains vapor-rich inclusions and two populations of liquid-rich (L1 and L2) inclusions. L1 inclusions are characterized by homogenization temperatures between 304 and 361°C and salinities from 7.4 to 11.6 wt.% NaCl equivalent; L2 inclusions revealed homogenization temperatures in the range of 189–245°C and salinities from 2.6 to 6.3 wt.% NaCl equivalent. The fluids contained in L2 inclusions were probably trapped coevally with some vapor-rich inclusions under boiling conditions after the L1 inclusions formed. Some of the abundant vapor-rich inclusions in calcite may also represent early, low-temperature inclusions affected by decrepitation and/or stretching and/or leaking during L1 trapping. The liquid-rich (L) inclusions trapped at later stages in ankerite, albite and anhydrite display, respectively, homogenization temperature ranges of 189–198°C, 132–145°C, and 139–171°C, and salinities ranging from 1.6 to 1.7 wt.% NaCl equivalent, 1.4 to 2.1 wt.% NaCl equivalent and 3.7 to 6.2 wt.% NaCl equivalent. The inclusions studied record the evolution, over time, of the fluids flowing in the breccia level: L1 inclusions capture high-temperature fluid (about 300 to 350°C) of high salinity (around 10 wt.% NaCl equivalent) at above-hydrostatic pressures (up to about 150 bar). The L2 inclusions in calcite and liquid-rich inclusions in ankerite and albite represent subsequent hydrothermal fluid evolution toward lower temperatures (about 250 to 130°C), pressures (45 to a few bar) and salinities (6.3 to 1.4 wt.% NaCl equivalent). During this stage, boiling processes and infiltration of meteoric waters probably occurred. Finally, moderately saline fluids (around 5 wt.% NaCl equivalent) at a temperature (about 160°C) close to that of present-day in-hole measurements was trapped in the anhydrite inclusions. The liquids trapped in liquid-rich inclusions circulated at 41,000 years (maximum age of calcite) or later. This age represents an upper limit for the development of vapor-dominated condition, in this part of the geothermal system. The fluids circulating at the breccia level were probably meteoric and/or connate waters. These fluids may have interacted with the anhydrite and carbonate bearing formations present in the Larderello area. The occurrence of the hot and saline fluids, trapped in L1 inclusions at above-hydrostatic pressure, suggests that similar fluids but with higher pressure (≥167 bar) and temperature (≥360°C) may have been responsible for rock fracturing.  相似文献   

14.
In this work we present the hydrogeophysical imaging of a key sector of the Quaternary Po foreland basin (northern Italy), focussing on the reconstruction of clastic aquifers and aquitards in a complex tectono-sedimentary subsurface architecture. The study area includes the relic reliefs of Casalpusterlengo and Zorlesco, two smooth morphological features involving uplifted and gently folded Pleistocene marine to alluvial sediments, plausibly linked to the buried Northern Apennines thrust and fold belt. The geophysical data include 35 Direct Current Vertical Electrical Soundings collected over a 37 km2 wide area, acquired with Schlumberger array and maximum half-spacing of 500 m. 1-D resistivity-depth profiles were computed for each VES. An integrated hydrostratigraphic approach was applied, to constrain the interpretation of the geophysical data along several cross-sections, including the comparison of resistivity soundings to stratigraphic logs, borehole electric logs and the pore-water properties.The resistivity interfaces, traceable with the same laterally continuous vertical polarity, were used to develop an electrostratigraphic model in order to portray the stacking of electrostratigraphic units down to 200 m below ground surface. Their vertical associations show a general upward increase of electrical resistivity. This assemblage mimics the regional coarsening upwards depositional trend, from the conductive units of the Plio-Pleistocene marine-to-transitional depositional systems to the resistive units of the Middle–Late Pleistocene fluvial and alluvial plain depositional systems. Middle Pleistocene depositional systems host an alternation of North-dipping, high-to-intermediate permeability aquifer systems (70–180 Ωm, thickness of 5–70 m) separated by low permeability aquitards (20–50 Ωm, thickness up to 40 m). These units pinch out against the Casalpusterlengo and Zorlesco relic reliefs, where they cover the uplifted and folded regional aquitard (20–50 Ωm) formed by Pliocene-Lower Pleistocene clays to sandy silts with gravel lenses in agreement with borehole data. In the deepest part of the local stratigraphy, a broad low-resistivity anomaly (< 10 Ωm) was clearly mapped through the study area. By comparison with electrical borehole logs in deep oil-wells, it could be interpreted as the fresh–saltwater interface due to the presence of connate waters and brines hosted by the marine-to-transitional shales.  相似文献   

15.
In this paper a composite analysis was used to assess the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the winter daily rainfall and seasonal runoff at 28 stations of the Abruzzo region (Central Italy) during the period 1951–2012. Compositing was based on NAO? and NAO+ phases, identified by mean winter values of the normalized NAO index (NAOI) ≤?0.75 and ≥+0.75, respectively. In accordance with previous studies, it was found that NAO? phases determine, in general, a greater number of wet days (N w ) and (consequently) higher seasonal rainfall amounts in comparison to NAO+ phases. However, the NAO influence is characterized by a certain spatial variability, that can mostly be explained by orographic effects due to the Apennine Mountains. This is particularly evident for the mean rainfall depth per event (P e ) that, during NAO? phases, increases for the stations to the west of the Apennines, while it decreases for most of the stations to the east. The structure of winter daily rainfall of NAO+ and NAO? type, was described by a simple but effective first-order Markov process, determining the transition probabilities P01 (dry to wet) and P10 (wet to dry) and modelling the rainfall depth on wet days by a Weibull distribution. The most significant influence of NAO concerns P01 and the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution that are both higher during the NAO? phase. This means that NAO? phases are characterized by less persistent dry periods and less variable daily rainfall depths, in comparison to NAO+ phases. The effect of these differences on the winter seasonal runoff was explored by applying a Curve Number rainfall-runoff model. Significant increments of the mean seasonal runoff during NAO? phases were observed only for few stations (mainly on the west), characterized by corresponding increments of N w , P tot and P e .). NAO+ phases, instead, are characterized by relevant increments of the seasonal runoff variability, particularly on the eastern areas. In this context, the important regulating function of the watershed conditions was also discussed.  相似文献   

16.
Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source.  相似文献   

17.
The site amplifications for three stations, Libin (LIBI), Baisha (BASH) and Yulong (YULG) situated respectively in the southern, middle and northern parts of Lijiang Valley, are obtained by analyzing the S-wave soil/bedrock and microtremor horizontal/vertical spectral ratios. The data are digital recordings for the aftershocks of the Lijiang MS=7.0 earthquake on February 3, 1996. In the frequency range of 1~4 Hz, the S-wave soil/bedrock spectral ratio of E-W component for LIBI is the largest and amounts to 4.5. The microtremor soil N-S/vertical (V) spectral ratio is approximate to 1, E-W/V is about 4.5 and the same with above soil/bedrock spectral ratio. It is shown that the vertical and N-S components of microtremor have not been amplified by the soil and the spectral ratios for BASH and YULG are further evaluated. They have similar characteristics with that of LIBI. In above frequency range, both N-S/V ratios are approximate to 1, while the E-W/V ratio is about 6 for BASH, 4.5 for YULG. Lijiang Valley is characterized by the trans-valley directional site response.  相似文献   

18.
云南丽江峡谷的场地放大   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
分析S波土层/基岩和脉动水平/垂直的频谱比,分别得出了位于丽江峡谷南段、中段和北段的丽宾、白沙和玉龙3个台站的场地放大.使用的资料是1996年2月3日云南丽江MS=7.0地震余震的数字记录.在1~4 Hz频率范围内,丽宾台S波东西分量土层/基岩频谱比最大,达4.5;丽宾台脉动土层北南/垂直频谱比接近1,东西/垂直频谱比约为4.5,且与上述土层/基岩频谱比相同.表明脉动的垂直和北南分量未被土层放大,单台Nakamura法可用.用此法进而求出了白沙和玉龙的脉动频谱比,它们具有同丽宾脉动频谱比类似的特征.在上述频率范围内,两台的北南/垂直频谱比接近1,而东西/垂直频谱比白沙台约为6,玉龙台约为4.5.在丽江峡谷有横越峡谷的方向性场地响应特征.  相似文献   

19.
The fumarolic fluids of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) consist of a mixture of both deep and shallow components. The final products, the fumarolic gases and the sublimates associated with them, provide information on the complex interactions that occur at depth. As radiogenic isotopes do not undergo fractionation after they are incorporated in a fumarolic gas, they can be used directly to characterize the components that mixed. Lead isotopes are particularly suitable, because seawater, which plays an important part in the formation of the fumarolic fluids of Vulcano, contains only negligible amounts of it (10-12 g/g). Therefore, the lead present in the fumarolic gases (and sublimates) is derived from the magmatic component and a water-rock interaction process. The lead isotope compositions of the lead sulfosalt sublimates collected from the Fossa Crater of Vulcano in 1924, and between 1989 and 1993, are given. The lead isotope ratios of most of the samples are the same within the range of analytical error, regardless of their collection date. The only samples that display slight variations are those collected in 1993. On the whole, the compositional trend of the lead isotopes of the sublimates coincides with that of the latitic-rhyolitic activity of Fossa and differs substantially from that of the pre-Fossa trachy-basaltic activity. The lead composition of the sublimates is very different from that of the Calabrian basement rocks. The data presented here show that the magma presently degassing at Vulcano has the same lead isotopic composition as the products of the recent activity of Fossa, whereas the fumarolic fluid circulation of Vulcano has not involved basement rocks similar to the Calabrian metasediments.  相似文献   

20.
The waters discharged in Southern Latium (south of Rome) are mainly meteoric in origin. Two types of circulation occur in the region: one infiltrates the carbonate sediments outcropping in the area and emerges from fractures along their borders, the other consists of waters that infiltrate and circulate essentially within the Albani volcanic rocks.The first type produces either alkaline earth bicarbonate-sulfate waters or, if they mix with fossil marine waters or interact with recent marine sediments, alkaline-chloride waters (on the Pontina Plain). The chemistry of the waters produced by the second type of circulation (alkaline earth-bicarbonate or alkaline-bicarbonate) is strictly related to their gaseous phases, which consist for the most part of the CO2 produced at depth.Silica and gas geothermometers, whose results correlate well, indicate that low enthalpy fluids (≤ 80°C) are present throughout the study area, with the exception of the northwestern part where medium enthalpy fluids (150°C) also appear.  相似文献   

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