Application of Fisher method to discriminating earthquakes and explosions using criterion m b/ M S

We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m _b/M _S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively. Contribution No.05FE3018, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administrtion.     

Performance of flood frequency pooling analysis in a low CV context

Abstract

Pooling of flood data is widely used to provide a framework to estimate design floods by the Index Flood method. Design flood estimation with this approach involves derivation of a growth curve which shows the relationship between X_T and the return period T, where X_T ?=?Q_T /Q_I and Q_I is the index flood at the site of interest. An implicit assumption with the Index Flood procedure of pooling analysis is that the X_T –T relationship is the same at all sites in a homogeneous pooling group, although this assumption would generally be violated to some extent in practical cases, i.e. some degree of heterogeneity exists. In fact, in only some cases is the homogeneity criterion effectively satisfied for Irish conditions. In this paper, the performance of the index-flood pooling analysis is assessed in the Irish low CV (coefficient of variation) hydrology context considering that heterogeneity is taken into account. It is found that the performance of the pooling method is satisfactory provided there are at least 350 station years of data included. Also it is found that, in a highly heterogeneous group, it is more desirable to have many sites with short record lengths than a smaller number of sites with long record lengths. Increased heterogeneity decreases the advantage of pooling group-based estimation over at-site estimation. Only a heterogeneity measure (H1) less than 4.0 can render the pooled estimation preferable to that obtained for at-site estimation for the estimation of 100-year flood. In moderately to highly heterogeneous regions it is preferable to conduct at-site analysis for the estimation of 100-year flood if the record length at the site concerned exceeds 50.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Carsteanu

Citation Das, S. and Cunnane, C., 2012. Performance of flood frequency pooling analysis in a low CV context. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 433–444.     

On the frontal condition for finite amplitude α2Ω-dynamo wave trains in stellar shells

Abstract

In a previous paper, Bassom et al. (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 455, 1443–1481, 1999) (BKS) investigated finite amplitude αΩ-dynamo wave trains in a thin turbulent, differentially rotating convective stellar shell; nonlinearity arose from α-quenching. There asymptotic solutions were developed based upon the small aspect ratio ε of the shell. Specifically, as a consequence of a prescribed latitudinally dependent α-effect and zonal shear flow, the wave trains have smooth amplitude modulation but are terminated abruptly across a front at some high latitude θ_F. Generally, the linear WKB-solution ahead of the front is characterised by the vanishing of the complex group velocity at a nearby point θ_f; this is essentially the Dee–Langer criterion, which determines both the wave frequency and front location.

Recently, Griffiths et al. (Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dynam. 94, 85–133, 2001) (GBSK) obtained solutions to the α²Ω-extension of the model by application of the Dee—Langer criterion. Its justification depends on the linear solution in a narrow layer ahead of the front on the short O(θ_f—θ_F) length scale; here conventional WKB-theory, used to describe the solution elsewhere, is inadequate because of mode coalescence. This becomes a highly sensitive issue, when considering the transition from the linear solution, which occurs when the dynamo number D takes its critical value D _c corresponding to the onset of kinematic dynamo action, to the fully nonlinear solutions, for which the Dee—Langer criterion pertains.

In this paper we investigate the nature of the narrow layer for α²Ω-dynamos in the limit of relatively small but finite α-effect Reynolds numbers R _α, explicitly ε^½ ? R ² _α ? 1. Though there is a multiplicity of solutions, our results show that the space occupied by the corresponding wave train is generally maximised by a solution with θ_f—θ_F small; such solutions are preferred as evinced by numerical simulations. This feature justifies the application by GBSK of the Dee—Langer criterion for all D down to the minimum D _min that the condition admits. Significantly, the frontal solutions are subcritical in the sense that |D _min| ≤ |D _c|; equality occurs as the α-effect Reynolds number tends to zero. We demonstrate that the critical linear solution is not connected by any parameter track to the preferred nonlinear solution associated with D _min. By implication, a complicated bifurcation sequence is required to make the connection between the linear and nonlinear states. This feature is in stark contrast to the corresponding results for αΩ-dynamos obtained by BKS valid in the limit R _{2 α} ? ε^½, which, though exhibiting a weak subcriticality, showed that the connection follows a clearly identifiable nonbifurcating track.     

The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (MS=7) by the "criterion of activity in quiescence"

IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province…     

Hydromagnetic waves in a differentially rotating Annulus I. A test of local stability analysis

Abstract

A cylindrical annulus containing a conducting fluid and rapidly rotating about its axis is a useful model for the Earth's core. With a shear flow U ₀(s)∮, magnetic field B ₀(s)∮, and temperature distribution T _o(s) (where (s, ∮, z) are cylindrical polar coordinates), many important properties of the core can be modelled while a certain degree of mathematical simplicity is maintained. In the limit of rapid rotation and at geophysically interesting field strengths, the effects of viscous diffusion and fluid inertia are neglected. In this paper, the linear stability of the above basic state to instabilities driven by gradients of B ₀ and U ₀ is investigated. The global numerical results show both instabilities predicted by a local analysis due to Acheson (1972, 1973, 1984) as well as a new resistive magnetic instability. For the non-diffusive field gradient instability we looked at both monotonic fields [for which the local stability parameter Δ, defined in (1.4), is a constant] and non-monotonic fields (for which Δ is a function of s). For both cases we found excellent qualitative agreement between the numerical and local results but found the local criterion (1.6) for instability to be slightly too stringent. For the non-monotonic fields, instability is confined approximately to the region which is locally unstable. We also investigated the diffusive buoyancy catalysed instability for monotonic fields and found good quantitative agreement between the numerical results and the local condition (1.9). The new resistive instability was found for fields vanishing (or small) at the outer boundary and it is concentrated in the region of that boundary. The resistive boundary layer plays an important part in this instability so it is not of a type which could be predicted using a local stability analysis (which takes no account of the presence of boundaries).     

On temporal and spatial distribution of seismic apparent stresses in Yunnan area

Introduction In recent years the study of the digital seismology has made great progress due to the wide use of the broadband digital records. And many fine results of the focal theory have obtained. The focal theory mainly studies the physical process of the seismic fracture and production of the seismic wave, as well as its traveling process. One of the great progresses is to simulate the fracture process in the active fault. Especially a new concept of the fracture mechanics has been intro…     

Application of the water table fluctuation method to characterize groundwater recharge in the Pampa plain,Argentina

Abstract

The water table fluctuation (WTF) method is based on accepting that rises of a water table are due to recharge water reaching the groundwater. To apply the method, an estimate of the specific yield of the zone of fluctuation of the groundwater level is required. In this paper, a method for estimation of the specific yield (S_y) is proposed; it consists of a graphical procedure which relates rises in groundwater level to the precipitation from which they originated. The method presents more reliable S_y values as the number of events measured increases. Eighteen years of daily measurements were analysed to obtain a S_y value of 0.09, which was used to apply the WTF method. The obtained recharge values show consistency with values calculated by other authors for the same region.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Varni, M., Comas, R., Weinzettel, P., and Dietrich, S., 2013. Application of water table fluctuation method to characterize the groundwater recharge in the Pampa plain, Argentina. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1445–1455.     

Estimation of LNAPL saturation in fine sand using time-domain reflectometry / Estimation de la saturation en LPNAL dans du sable fin grâce à la réflectométrie en domaine temporel

Abstract

Abstract Recently, substantial progress has been made in detection and observation of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) in the subsurface using different experimental techniques. However, there is still a lack of appropriate direct methods to measure the saturation of NAPL (θ_NAPL). This paper provides a guide for estimating θ_NAPL and water content (θ _w ) in unsaturated and saturated sand based on direct measurements of soil dielectric constant (K_a ) and electrical conductivity (σ _a ) using time domain reflectometry (TDR). The results show that the previously used dielectric mixing model fails to predict θ_NAPL in the case of a four-phase system. A new methodology is suggested and exemplified by showing that the measured K_a gives accurate estimation of θ_NAPL for a three-phase system while in a four-phase system, both θ _a and K_a need to be measured. The results show that using the suggested methodology, accurate predictions of θ _w (R ² = 0.9998) and θ_NAPL lower than 0.20 m³ m^-3 (average R ² = 0.9756) are possible.     

A three-dimensional,iterative mapping procedure for the implementation of an ionosphere-magnetosphere anisotropic Ohm’s law boundary condition in global magnetohydrodynamic simulations

The mathematical formulation of an iterative procedure for the numerical implementation of an ionosphere-magnetosphere (IM) anisotropic Ohm’s law boundary condition is presented. The procedure may be used in global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the magnetosphere. The basic form of the boundary condition is well known, but a well-defined, simple, explicit method for implementing it in an MHD code has not been presented previously. The boundary condition relates the ionospheric electric field to the magnetic field-aligned current density driven through the ionosphere by the magnetospheric convection electric field, which is orthogonal to the magnetic field B, and maps down into the ionosphere along equipotential magnetic field lines. The source of this electric field is the flow of the solar wind orthogonal to B. The electric field and current density in the ionosphere are connected through an anisotropic conductivity tensor which involves the Hall, Pedersen, and parallel conductivities. Only the height-integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities (conductances) appear in the final form of the boundary condition, and are assumed to be known functions of position on the spherical surface R=R₁ representing the boundary between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The implementation presented consists of an iterative mapping of the electrostatic potential , the gradient of which gives the electric field, and the field-aligned current density between the IM boundary at R=R₁ and the inner boundary of an MHD code which is taken to be at R₂>R₁. Given the field-aligned current density on R=R₂, as computed by the MHD simulation, it is mapped down to R=R₁ where it is used to compute by solving the equation that is the IM Ohm’s law boundary condition. Then is mapped out to R=R₂, where it is used to update the electric field and the component of velocity perpendicular to B. The updated electric field and perpendicular velocity serve as new boundary conditions for the MHD simulation which is then used to compute a new field-aligned current density. This process is iterated at each time step. The required Hall and Pedersen conductances may be determined by any method of choice, and may be specified anew at each time step. In this sense the coupling between the ionosphere and magnetosphere may be taken into account in a self-consistent manner.     

Decreasing trend of sediment transfer function of the Upper Yellow River,China, in response to human activity and climate change

Abstract

An index (F_s) for sediment transfer function is introduced, based on the sediment budget at the channel scale. The purpose of this study is two-fold: to gain a deeper insight into how F_s is influenced by natural and human factors, and to provide some new knowledge for decision making in the management of the Upper Yellow River, China. Since 1960, the F_s of the Lanzhou to Toudaoguai reach of the Upper Yellow River shows a decreasing trend. At the drainage basin level, the decreased F_s can be explained by changes in precipitation and air temperature, as well as by a number of variables describing human activity, such as reservoir regulation, water diversion, and soil and water conservation. The higher temperature reduces the transfer function, while the larger runoff coefficient increases it. At the channel level, the decreased F_s can be explained by a number of variables of flow and sediment input. Three countermeasures for restoration of the F_s are suggested.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Review of methods used to estimate catchment response time for the purpose of peak discharge estimation

Abstract

Large errors in peak discharge estimates at catchment scales can be ascribed to errors in the estimation of catchment response time. The time parameters most frequently used to express catchment response time are the time of concentration (T_C), lag time (T_L) and time to peak (T_P). This paper presents a review of the time parameter estimation methods used internationally, with selected comparisons in medium and large catchments in the C5 secondary drainage region in South Africa. The comparison of different time parameter estimation methods with recommended methods used in South Africa confirmed that the application of empirical methods, with no local correction factors, beyond their original developmental regions, must be avoided. The T_C is recognized as the most frequently used time parameter, followed by T_L. In acknowledging this, as well as the basic assumptions of the approximations T_L = 0.6T_C and T_C ≈ T_P, along with the similarity between the definitions of the T_P and the conceptual T_C, it was evident that the latter two time parameters should be further investigated to develop an alternative approach to estimate representative response times that result in improved estimates of peak discharge at these catchment scales.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Qiang Zhang     

On the transport of moisture in polythermal glaciers

Abstract

We reconsider the problem of formulation of a model for polythermal glaciers, focussing attention in particular on the temperate zone where ice and water can coexist at the melting temperature. The energy equation for the ice-water mixture in this zone introduces a moisture flux, and a constitutive law for this flux is required. By analogy with the flow through a porous medium, we use Darcy's law (i.e. the second momentum equation of a two-phase flow model with “porous” geometry), and then require a mechanical constitutive relation relating the water pressure p _w to the average ice pressure p _i . Experience in two phase flows suggests that p _w =p _i may be problematical, and experience in soil mechanics suggests it is inaccurate. A constitutive relation is therefore presented based on work of Nye (1976), and its effect on the well-posedness of the model is examined. Considerations of the sort presented here have clear relevance in the formulation of similar problems in other geophysical situations, notably mantle convection.     

Distribution of Lg coda Q in Xinjiang and its adjacent regions

In this study, we collected 1 156 broadband vertical components records at 22 digital seismic stations in Xinjiang region, ürümqi station, and 7 stations in the adjacent regions during the period of 1999–2003. The records were firstly processed by the stacked spectral ratio method to obtain Q ₀ (Q at 1 Hz) and the frequency correlation factor η corresponding to each path. Based on the results, the distribution images of Q ₀ and η in 1°×1° grids for Xinjiang region were gained by the back-projection technique. The results indicate that Q ₀ is high (300–450) in the Tarim platform and marginal Siberian platform, while Q ₀ is low (150–250) in the southern regions as west Kunlun fold system and Songpan-Ganzi fold system. In the northern regions as Junggar fold system and Tianshan fold system, Q ₀ is also low (250–300) and η varies between 0.5 and 0.9. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (49974012) and Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (604004).     

The destabilising nature of differential rotation

Abstract

In a rapidly rotating, electrically conducting fluid we investigate the thermal stability of the fluid in the presence of an imposed toroidal magnetic field and an imposed toroidal differential rotation. We choose a magnetic field profile that is stable. The familiar role of differential rotation is a stabilising one. We wish to examine the less well known destabilising effect that it can have. In a plane layer model (for which we are restricted to Roberts number q = 0) with differential rotation, U = sΩ(z)1 _?, no choice of Ω(z) led to a destabilising effect. However, in a cylindrical geometry (for which our model permits all values of q) we found that differential rotations U = sΩ(s)1 _? which include a substantial proportion of negative gradient (dΩ/ds ≤ 0) give a destabilising effect which is largest when the magnetic Reynolds number R _m = O(10); the critical Rayleigh number, Ra _c, is about 7% smaller at minimum than at R_m = 0 for q = 10⁶. We also find that as q is reduced, the destabilising effect is diminished and at q = 10^?6, which may be more appropriate to the Earth's core, the effect causes a dip in the critical Rayleigh number of only about 0.001%. This suggests that we see no dip in the plane layer results because of the q = 0 condition. In the above results, the Elsasser number A = 1 but the effect of differential rotation is also dependent on A. Earlier work has shown a smooth transition from thermal to differential rotation driven instability at high A [A = O(100)]. We find, at intermediate A [A = O(10)], a dip in the Ra_c vs. R_m curve similar to the A = 1 case. However, it has Ra_c ≤ 0 at its minimum and unlike the results for high A, larger values of R_m result in a restabilisation.     

The role of the helicity spectrum function in turbulent dynamo theory

Abstract

It is shown that, for general homogeneous turbulence, the anti-symmetric part of the spectrum tensor can be expressed in terms of a single scalar function H(k,ω) (the helicity spectrum function). Under the first-order smoothing approximation, the coefficients α _ij β _ijk in the expansion of the mean electromotive force in terms of the mean magnetic field are determined; α _ij is a weighted integral of H(k,ω), and β _ijk contains a part β(a)ijk which is likewise a weighted integral of H(k, ω). When the turbulence is axisymmetric, β(a)ijk contains Rädler's (1969a) “Ω ∧ J-effect”. It is shown that when the turbulence is statistically symmetric about a plane perpendicular to the axis of symmetry, then βij = O but the Rädler effect is non-zero. Explicit expressions for αij and βijk are given when the velocity field is generated by random forcing in a rotating medium. Finally, it is shown by means of a local analysis that the Rädler effect, in conjunction with uniform mean shear, can give rise to non-oscillatory dynamo action, and it is argued that this effect may be significant in the well-mixed interior of a stellar convection zone, where by symmetry the α-effect may be weak.     

Variations of the geomagnetic field and the geomagnetic effects of three earthquakes ( M s>5.0) in Jiangsu Province, China

Since 1979 the repeated observations and experiments of geomagnetic total intensity and vertical component have been carried out for ten years in the geomagetic network which is located in Jiangsu Province, China. Three earthquakes aboveM _s 5.0 occurred during the decade, and some seismomagnetic effects were observed. The observation results show that the anomalies of the vertical geomagnetic component can’t be observed untill some months before the earthquake (M _s>5.0) in this area. In this paper it is suggested that a densely distributed network for continuous observation of geomagnetic vertical component may catch seismomagnetic anomalies and thus improve earthquake prediction in the light of the geomagnetic measurements of the mid — or — low latitude locations. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 80–87, 1991. This study is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

A steady state of the disc dynamo

Abstract

We discuss the steady states of the αω-dynamo in a thin disc which arise due to α-quenching. Two asymptotic regimes are considered, one for the dynamo numberD near the generation thresholdD ₀, and the other for |D| ? 1. Asymptotic solutions for |D—D ₀| ? |D ₀| have a rather universal character provided only that the bifurcation is supercritical. For |D| ? 1 the asymptotic solution crucially depends on whether or not the mean helicity α, as a function ofB, has a positive root (hereB is the mean magnetic field). When such a root exists, the field value in the major portion of the disc is O(l), while near the disc surface thin boundary layers appear where the field rapidly decreases to zero (if the disc is surrounded by vacuum). Otherwise, when α = O(|B|^?s) for |B| → ∞, we demonstrate that |B| = O(|D|^1/s ) and the solution is free of boundary layers. The results obtained here admit direct comparison with observations of magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, so that an appropriate model of nonlinear galactic dynamos hopefully could be specified.     

Tangential discontinuities and the optical analogy for stationary fields. v. formal integration of the force-free field equations

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the appearance of tangential discontinuities in deformed force-free fields by direct integration of the field equation ? x B = αB. To keep the mathematics tractable the initial field is chosen to be a layer of linear force-free field B_x = + B ₀cosqz, B_y = — B ₀sinqz, B_z = 0, anchored at the distant cylindrical surface ? = (x ² + y ²)^1/2 = R and deformed by application of a local pressure maximum of scale l centered on the origin x = y = 0. In the limit of large R/l the deformed field remains linear, with α = q[1 + O(l ²/R ²)]. The field equations can be integrated over ? = R showing a discontinuity extending along the lines of force crossing the pessure maximum. On the other hand, examination of the continuous solutions to the field equations shows that specification of the normal component on the enclosing boundary ? = R completely determines the connectivity throughout the region, in a form unlike the straight across connections of the initial field. The field can escape this restriction only by developing internal discontinuities.

Casting the field equation in a form that the connectivity can be specified explicitly, reduces the field equation to the eikonal equation, describing the optical analogy, treated in papers II and III of this series. This demonstrates the ubiquitous nature of the tangential discontinuity in a force-free field subject to any local deformation.     

The Effect of Porous Medium Storage on Unstable Density‐Driven Solute Transport

Unstable density‐driven groundwater flow and solute transport (i.e., free convection) leads to spatiotemporal variations in pressure. Specific storage (S_o) indicates the capability of a confined aquifer to release or store groundwater associated with a pressure change. Although S_o is known to dampen pressure propagation, S_o has been implicitly assumed to have a negligible impact on the unstable free convective process in prior studies. This work explores the effect of S_o on both the classic onset criterion and the fingering process using numerical models. Results show that the classic onset criterion is applicable when S_o is smaller than 10^–1 m^–1. Results also demonstrate that S_o does not play a significant role in the free convective fingering process unless it is greater than 10^–3 m^–1. For most practical purposes in hydrogeology (large Rayleigh number and small S_o), the implicit assumption of small or zero S_o is appropriate.     

An advanced process for evaluating a linear dielectric constant–bulk electrical conductivity model using a capacitance sensor in field conditions

Abstract

The Hilhorst model was used to convert bulk electrical conductivity (σ_b) to pore water electrical conductivity (σ_p) under laboratory conditions by using the linear relationship between the soil dielectric constant (ε_b) and σ_b. In the present study, applying the linear relationship ε_b–σ_b to data obtained from field capacitance sensors resulted in strong positive autocorrelations between the residuals of that regression. We were able to derive an accurate offset of the relationship ε_b–σ_b and to estimate the evolution of σ_p over time by including a stochastic component to the linear model, rearranging it to a time-varying dynamic linear model (DLM), and using Kalman filtering and smoothing. The offset proved to vary for each depth in the same soil profile. A reason for this might be the changes in soil temperature along the soil profile.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor M.D. Fidelibus