Nonlinear free thermal convection in a spherical shell:A variable viscosity model

Introduction The velocity field of surface plate motion can be split into a poloidal and a toroidal parts.At the Earth′s surface,the toroidal component is manifested by the existence of transform faults,and the poloidal component by the presence of convergence and divergence,i.e.spreading and subduc-tion zones.They have coupled each other and completely depicted the characteristics of plate tec-tonic motions.The mechanism of poloidal field has been studied fairly clearly which is related to …     

Data time-step dependency of conceptual rainfall—streamflow model parameters: an empirical study with implications for regionalisation

Abstract

Employing 1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 12- and 24-hourly data sets for two catchments (10.6 and 298 km²) in Wales, the calibrated parameters of a unit hydrograph-based model are shown to change substantially over that range of data time steps. For the smaller basin, each model parameter reaches, or approaches, a stable value as the data time step decreases, providing a straightforward method of estimating time-step independent model parameter values. For the larger basin, the model parameters also reach, or approach, stable values using hourly data, but, for reasons given in the paper, interpretation of the results is more difficult. Model parameter sensitivity analyses are presented that give insights into the relative precision on the parameters for both catchments. The paper discusses the importance of accounting for model parameter data time-step dependency in pursuit of a reduction in the uncertainty associated with estimates of flow in ungauged basins, and suggests that further work along these lines be undertaken using different catchments and models.     

Geoid determination by spectral combination of an Earth gravitational model with airborne and terrestrial gravimetry — a theoretical study

Today air-gravimetry is a versatile technique to quickly collect gravity data over large regions, where terrestrial gravity data are sparse and/or of poor quality. The method requires the data to be downward continued to sea level for use in geoid determination, an inverse problem operation that calls for smoothing of the data and/or the kernel function involved (in either spectral or space domain). In this purely theoretical study we avoid this separate computational step by performing direct geoid estimation by so-called spectral combination/filtering of the data, which includes terrestrial gravimetry, airgravimetry, an Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) as well as their signal and error degree variances. Each derived geoid estimator is presented as the sum of one or two integral formulas and the harmonic series of the EGM together with the expected mean square error of the estimator. The article is limited to a theoretical study, leaving its practical tests for future investigation.     

Bed-roughness investigation for a 2-D model calibration： the San Martin case study at Lower Parana

This paper illustrates how the acoustic Doppler current profiler （ADCP） and single-beam echo-sounder （SBES） recordings can be used for the calibration of existing software to assist in generalizing the morphodynamic processes in large rivers at key sites such as bifi.trcations and confluences. Calibration of the MIKE21C numerical model by the Danish Hydraulic Institute at the 25-km-long reach of Lower Paran~ near Rosario （Argentina） is presented. This reach includes two downstream confluences and two bifurcations. The model simulates a 2-D depth-averaged flow velocity and the related sediment fluxes to predict the bifurcation morphodynamics that affects the Paranh waterway. To investigate the river channel bathymetry, roughness, flow discharge allocation at bifurcations, suspended sediment concentration and grain size distributions, several instruments were used. These instruments included two ADCPs by Teledyne RDI working at frequencies of 600 and 1,200 kHz, a Sontek ADCP working at a frequency of 1,000 kHz and a SBES. The method to assess suspended sediment concentration and grain size distributions has been previously described. This paper focuses primarily on investigating dune morphology （by means of SBES depth measurements） and friction velocity （by means of ADCP profiling） to determine the river channel bed-roughness. The 2-D model results agree with observed values of bed-roughness, flow velocity and suspended sediment concentration distributions at the investigated sections, known data of water slope and total load of bed sediment are in good agreement with model results.     

Galactic cosmic rays—clouds effect and bifurcation model of the Earth global climate. Part 2. Comparison of theory with experiment

The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared.In the framework of proposed bifurcation model (i) the possible sharp warmings of the Dansgaard-Oeschger type during the last glacial period due to stochastic resonance is theoretically argued; (ii) the concept of climatic sensitivity of water in the atmosphere, whose temperature instability has the form of so-called hysteresis loop, is proposed, and based on this concept the time series of global ice volume over the past 1000 kyr, which is in good agreement with the time series of δ¹⁸O concentration in the sea sediments, is obtained; (iii) the so-called “CO₂ doubling” problem is discussed.     

A potential experiment for in-situ measurement of atmospheric temperature and atomic oxygen density in the 90–150 km altitude range by a Raman Lidar

The Raman backscatter cross sections for a 355 nm light source for the three fine-structure components are calculated. The signal-to-noise considerations show that the determination of the densities of the three fine-structure components separately is a feasible experiment. Since these fine-structure components are calculated to be in local thermodynamic equilibrium up to at least 350 km altitude, this experiment also gives atmospheric temperature. It is pointed out that this experiment does not suffer from the drawbacks of the previous efforts to determine atomic oxygen density and should yield reliable results for this density as well as temperature.     

Porosity–permeability properties generated with a new 2-parameter 3D hydraulic pore-network model for consolidated and unconsolidated porous media

A new method is presented to construct a simple and general site bond correlated 3D HYdraulic POre Network model (HYPON) of hydraulic behavior of porous media for a wide range of permeability and porosity. Pore scale microstructure in this model is captured through simple power functions of Beti's influence lines that fix both the location and the size of throat (the narrowest section of bond) by relating the important elements of microstructure such as coordination number, porebody sizes and pore wall curvature. The new element in pore-network architecture is thus, the location of throat, which is important for smooth hydraulic transitions during steady state flow conditions. Despite the reduced number of parameters in comparison with other pore-network models, the morphological characteristics of HYPON compare well to those of the process-based predictive models in literature, and these characteristics are sensitive to the variance of porebody sizes rather than to the used type of the porebody size distributions. Processes such as diagenesis and dissolution are captured implicitly through the pore wall curvature parameter. Different combinations of porosity and permeability relations are obtained if the bond curvature and porebody sizes are varied. These relations reveal that effects of diagenesis and dissolution on the permeability may be ignored as they are secondary to effects on porosity.     

Decomposing InSAR LOS displacement into co-seismic dislocation with a linear interpolation model： A case study of the Kunlun Mountain Ms=8.1 earthquake

It has always been a difficult problem to extract horizontal and vertical displacement components from the InSAR LOS （Line of Sight） displacement since the advent of monitoring ground surface deformation with InSAR technique. Having tried to fit the firsthand field investigation data with a least squares model and obtained a preliminary result, this paper, based on the previous field data and the InSAR data, presents a linear cubic interpolation model which well fits the feature of earthquake fracture zone. This model inherits the precision of investigation data; moreover make use of some advantages of the InSAR technique, such as quasi-real time observation, continuous recording and all-weather measurement. Accordingly, by means of the model this paper presents a method to decompose the InSAR slant range co-seismic displacement （i.e. LOS change） into horizontal and vertical displacement components. Approaching the real motion step by step, finally a serial of curves representing the co-seismic horizontal and vertical displacement component along the main earthquake fracture zone are approximately obtained.     

Comparison of LLR,MLP, Elman,NNARX and ANFIS Models—with a case study in solar radiation estimation

Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies of different models are still a huge task for modellers. This is because a large number of trial and error processes are needed to develop each model, so the workload will be multiplied into an unmanageable level if many types of models are involved. This study presents an efficient approach by using the Gamma test (GT) to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload can be greatly reduced. The methodology is tested in estimating solar radiation at the Brue catchment, UK. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently with the aid of the GT, including local linear regression, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Elman neural network, neural network auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NNARX) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). This work is only feasible within the time and resources constraint, due to the GT in reducing huge workload of the trial and error process.     

Assessment of observational networks with the Representer Matrix Spectra method—application to a 3D coastal model of the Bay of Biscay

The development of coastal ocean modeling in the recent years has allowed an improved representation of the associated complex physics. Such models have become more realistic, to the point that they can now be used to design observation networks in coastal areas, with the idea that a “good” network is a network that controls model state error. To test this ability without performing data assimilation, we set up a technique called Representer Matrix Spectra (RMS) technique that combines the model state and observation error covariance matrices into a single scaled representer matrix. Examination of the spectrum and the eigenvectors of that matrix informs us on which model state error modes a network can detect and constrain amidst the observation error background. We applied our technique to a 3D coastal model in the Bay of Biscay, with a focus on mesoscale activity, and tested the performance of various altimetry networks and an in situ array deployment strategy. It appears that a single nadir altimeter is not efficient enough at capturing coastal mesoscale physics, while a wide swath altimeter would do a much better job. Testing various local in situ array configurations confirms that adding a current meter to a vertical temperature measurement array improves the detection of secondary variability modes, while shifting the array higher on the shelf break would obviously enhance the model constraint along the coast. The RMS technique is easily set up and used as a “black box,” but the utility of its results is maximized by previous knowledge of model state error physics. The technique provides both quantitative (eigenvalues) and qualitative (eigenvectors) tools to study and compare various network options. The qualitative approach is essential to discard possibly inconsistent modes.     

Impacts of massive pumping on flood processes in polders—with a case study on Lannihu basin in the Dongting Lake District,China

Flooding risk in polders is dictated by not only rainfall, topography, and land use, but also massive pumping. Unfortunately, existing models are inadequate for resolving floods as water transfer due to pumping is insufficiently accounted for. Here an improved hydrological model (MGB-MP) is proposed under the framework of the large-scale hydrological model (MGB) based on the principle of water balance, explicitly incorporating massive pumping within a polder and also out to external rivers. The proposed model is calibrated and validated for the Lannihu basin, a typical polder with an area of 1353 km² and 126 pumping stations in the Dongting Lake District, China and surrounded by Xiangjiang River and Zishui River. The model performs fairly well, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies concerning water levels over 0.76 for the calibration and over 0.73 for the validation. The model is applied to the Lannihu basin under different pumping station settings and rainfall scenarios to unravel how and to what extent massive pumping affects the flood processes as characterized by water levels and discharge hydrographs. It is shown that massive pumping considerably alters the discharge hydrographs and accordingly leads to substantial decrease in the water levels of rivers, which are independent unit-polders, due to water transfer between unit-polders within the basin and out of the basin. The closer the unit-polders are to pumping stations, the more the water levels in unit-polders decrease. The water levels in unit-polders away from a pumping station is affected by the pumping station capacity to a greater extent than the pumping station's threshold water level for initiating pumping.     

Determination of paleo-pressure for a natural gas pool formation based on PVT characteristics of fluid inclusions in reservoir rocks——A case study of Upper-Paleozoic deep basin gas trap of the Ordos Basin

~~Determination of paleo-pressure for a natural gas pool formation based on PVT characteristics of fluid inclusions in reservoir rocks——A case study of Upper-Paleozoic deep basin gas trap of the Ordos Basin~~     

Accounting for sparsely observed rainfall space—time variability in a rainfall—runoff model of a semiarid Tunisian basin/Prise en compte d'observations peu denses de la variabilité spatiotemporelle de la pluie dans une modélisation pluie—débit d'un bassin semi-aride Tunisien

Abstract

The management of water excesses and deficits is a major task in semiarid Mediterranean regions, where the variability of rainfall inputs is high at different time and space scales. Thus intense hydrometeorological events, which generate both potential resource and hazards, are of major interest. A simple method is proposed, with the example of the Skhira basin (192 km²) in central Tunisia, to account for the event space–time variability of rainfall in a rainfall–runoff model, in order to check its influence on the shape, magnitude and timing of resulting hydrographs. The transfer function used is a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph with an explicit territorial significance. Simulations made for highly variable events show the relevance of this method, seen as the first step of a downward approach, and its robustness with respect to the quality and the density of rainfall data.     

Utility of high-resolution climate model simulations for water resources prediction over the Korean Peninsula: a sensitivity study / Utilité de simulations de modèle climatique à haute résolution pour la prévision des ressources en eau dans la Péninsule Coréenne: étude de sensibilité

Abstract

Abstract The utility of simulations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for regional water resources prediction and management on the Korean Peninsula was assessed by a probabilistic measure. Global Climate Model simulations of an indicator variable (e.g. surface precipitation or temperature) were used for discriminating high vs low regional observations of a target variable (e.g. watershed precipitation or reservoir inflow). The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two distributions. High resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II (AMIP-II) type GCM simulations performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AMIP-I type GCM simulations performed by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) were used to obtain information for the indicator variables. Observed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and watershed-outlet discharge values for seven major river basins in Korea were used as the target variables. The results suggest that the use of the climate model nodal output from both climate models in the vicinity of the target basin with monthly resolution will be beneficial for water resources planning and management analysis that depends on watershed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and outlet discharge.     

Integration of remote sensing and electrical sounding data for hydrogeological exploration—a case study of Bakhar watershed,India / Intégration de données de télédétection et de sondages électriques pour l'exploration hydrogéologique—étude de cas du bassin versant de Bakhar,Inde

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) was used for the integration of hydrological data acquired using remote sensing and geoelectrical techniques to understand the groundwater condition of Bakhar watershed, Mirazpur District, UP, India. Indian remote sensing IRS-1D, LISS—III data were used to prepare a geomorphological and lineament map of the Bakhar watershed. Vertical electrical sounding (VES) was carried out in different geomorphic units, and ranges of electrical resistivity values were assigned to the different formations by calibrating electrical resistivity with borehole data. Based on these, a subsurface resistivity map and an aquifer thickness map were prepared. Several layers were superimposed using GIS techniques. Each theme was assigned a weight, depending on its influence on groundwater recharge. Each class or unit in the map was assigned a knowledge-based rank from one to four, depending on its significance in storage and transmittance of groundwater, and these were then multiplied by the layer weighting to produce a score. Based on these scores, the watershed was categorized into different groundwater potential zones. The results indicate that the eastern and northern parts of the study area have very good groundwater potential to meet the demands of water for irrigation and domestic purposes, whereas the southern region has poor groundwater potential zones. Such integrated analysis has not been attempted so far in this region for hydrogeological investigation.