我国现行规范谱的超越概率标准

工程场地的地震安全性评价给出的加速度反应谱在长周期部分一般均低于相应的规范谱。本文用Ⅰ类和Ⅲ类场地的地震动参数衰减规律,讨论加速度反应谱与不同周期规范谱值对应的重现期。结果表明,对加速度而言,基本情况是规范反应谱周期越长越保守。当峰值加速度对应的重现期为475年时,对于本文的工程算例,Ⅰ类和Ⅲ类场地的加速度反应谱分别于3.7s和5.2s以后超过重现期5000年。本文认为,对目前使用的衰减规律的可靠性,对一致概率谱与规范谱的关系,对按保守谱设计的工程在长周期地震波作用下的表现以及对速度、位移等在抗震设计中的作用等问题应作深入研究。     

Levels of Probability of Exceedance for Current Code Spectra in China

Long-period acceleration spectra determined by seismic safety evaluation for project sites are generally lower than that given by relative code spectra. In this paper, we discuss the recurrence periods corresponding to the code spectra of different periods, by using ground motion attenuation laws for sites of types Ⅰand Ⅲ. We show the results that the longer the periods of code spectra are commonly the more conservative the seismic level is. As for the project examples in this paper, when the periods are longer than 3.7 or 5.2 seconds for sites of types Ⅰ or Ⅲ, the recurrence periods corresponding to the code spectra are longer than 5000 years. We suggest that some problems need to be further discussed, including the reliability of the present attenuation laws, the performance of those project structures that suffer long period seismic waves and have been designed according to the conservative codes, and the effects of ground motion parameters such as velocity and displacement on seismic design.     

Optimal Estimation of Two-Dimensional Contaminant Transport

The state-space estimation technique presented herein provides a method for obtaining optimal estimates of concentrations for two-dimensional plumes in ground water. The concentration of a plume was defined as the state variable. The technique uses the Kalman filter and involves combining two independent estimates of plume concentrations. One estimate is called the process modeling data and the other is called the “measurement” data. The process modeling data is obtained from a numerical model. The “measurement” data is obtained from field measurements; however, for illustration in this paper it was generated by a different numerical model than the one used to obtain the process modeling data. The state-space technique produces a distribution of contaminant concentrations that is more accurate than either of the distributions generated by the process modeling or the “measurement” data. An example is presented to show that the technique produces significant improvements in the prediction of plume concentration distributions.     

“抗大地震”与低超越概率水准地震动关系的讨论

本文阐明"大地震"与罕遇、极罕遇地震作用的区别与联系。并以龙门山地震带中段的北川-映秀潜在震源区为例,揭示"大地震作用"与罕遇、极罕遇地震作用的联系。指出了当前抗震设防体系存在的科学技术问题,"抗大地震作用"应该考虑极罕遇地震动的影响。     

甘肃地区三水准超越概率水平地震动峰值加速度关系与场地放大效应研究

通过对甘肃省158个场地安全性评价结果的分析,讨论了不同的超越概率下水平地震动峰值加速度之间的关系以及不同的场地条件对基岩峰值加速度的放大效应。结果对甘肃地区地震安全性评价中水平地震动峰值加速度的取值提供必要的参考。     

地震统计模型的年概率增益评估

根据Vere Jones提出的随机过程中信息增益的计算方法,研究了它与地震预测中常用的概率增益方法的联系;在此基础上,提出了计算地震活动统计模型的年概率增益方法,并将该方法应用于全过程指数增长的非稳态泊松模型和应力释放模型．此外,依据随机变量反函数的模拟方法,还给出了应力释放模型的预测方法．      

Estimation of Occurrence Probability of Earthquake Intensity for a Period of Ten Years

A method of estimation of occurrence probability of earthquake intensity at a given site from the results of a ten-year scale of earthquake prediction described with a probability of occurrence in a given "prediction cell" is proposed in this paper. 2316 cities and towns in China were analyzed by using this method. The probability of intensity Ⅵ-Ⅸ were given for every city. These results can be used for the earthquake insurance, loss estimation, and planning of disaster protection.     

10年尺度地震烈度发生概率预测方法

本文提出了一种利用１０年尺度地震危险性（地震发生概率的空间分布）预测结果进行１０年尺度地震烈度发生概率估计的方法。并用此方法计算了全国２３１６个城镇不同地震烈度（Ⅵ－Ⅹ）的发生概率。该结果可以用于相应时间尺度的地震损失预测、地震保险和防灾规划等。该方法也适用于利用短期地震预报结果（以预测单元地震发生概率表示），进行场地地震强度发生概率预测。     

Exceedance probability distributions of steady conduit flow in karst aquifers

Discharge exceedance probabilities are calculated for a simple model karst aquifer composed of a few multilevel conduits with recharge from a single sinking stream with an exponential flow exceedance distribution. It is assumed that outflow instantaneously matches inflow, so that the conduit volume is constant but discharge is governed by the head in a volumeless shaft at the top end of the system. It is shown that small single conduit aquifers will frequently overflow at the surface during floods and the exceedance probability of flow through the aquifer and over the surface can be defined as a function of the inflow distribution and the form of the aquifer. Systems with multiple conduits will overflow less frequently, but each conduit will exhibit a flow distribution characteristic of its form and position in the vertical hierarchy. Comparison of these findings with actual flow data from a conduit aquifer shows that the approach is valid, although imprecise. The model is unlikely to be applied directly, as it requires unusually detailed data. However, it provides for the first time an indication of typical flow durations for surface overflows and individual conduits in a karst aquifer. Contrasts in flow duration will have a profound influence on solutional and sedimentary processes in the karst system.     

Characterization of Persistent Volatile Contaminant Sources in the Vadose Zone

Effective long‐term operation of soil vapor extraction (SVE) systems for cleanup of vadose‐zone sources requires consideration of the likelihood that remediation activities over time will alter the subsurface distribution and configuration of contaminants. A method is demonstrated for locating and characterizing the distribution and nature of persistent volatile organic contaminant (VOC) sources in the vadose zone. The method consists of three components: analysis of existing site and SVE‐operations data, vapor‐phase cyclic contaminant mass‐discharge testing, and short‐term vapor‐phase contaminant mass‐discharge tests conducted in series at multiple locations. Results obtained from the method were used to characterize overall source zone mass‐transfer limitations, source‐strength reductions, potential changes in source‐zone architecture, and the spatial variability and extent of the persistent source(s) for the Department of Energy's Hanford site. The results confirmed a heterogeneous distribution of contaminant mass discharge throughout the vadose zone. Analyses of the mass‐discharge profiles indicate that the remaining contaminant source is coincident with a lower‐permeability unit at the site. Such measurements of source strength and size as obtained herein are needed to determine the impacts of vadose‐zone sources on groundwater contamination and vapor intrusion, and can support evaluation and optimization of the performance of SVE operations.     

常规土类动剪切模量阻尼比超越概率计算方法

土的动剪切模量比和阻尼比是土层地震反应分析、工程场地地震安全性评价和地震小区划工作中的必备参数,但其不确定性显著,对地震动和抗震设计影响很大。本文以我国常规土类动剪切模量比和阻尼比与剪应变非线性关系试验为基础,研究考虑这两个动力参数变异性下其超越概率的计算方法。方法包括了试验数据的整理、超越概率的计算以及两个动力参数和超越概率关系模拟等几个步骤,最后给出了我国常规土类动剪切模量比和阻尼比超越概率的计算公式,为我国基于概率和可靠度思想的工程地震安全风险评估提供了一定基础。     

The Relationship Among Bedrock Seismic Ground Motion Parameters with Different Exceedance Probabilities in the Panxi Area

Based on the calculation of the bedrock effective peak acceleration (EPA) zoning map in the Panxi area, the ratios of EPA with exceedance probabilities of 63%, 5%, 3%, 2% and 1% over 50 years to that of 10% in 50 years are 0.302, 1.30, 1.55, 1.76 and 2.14, respectively. The seismic effect will be conservative and safe if taking this zoning map as the earthquake-resistant fortification level and following the relevant rules of the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings (GBJ11-89) to calculate the seismic effect. Furthermore, the main factors that influence the A10/A63 ratios have been found to be the attenuation relationship of seismic ground motion, the division of seismic potential source regions and the seismicity parameters. These achievements are helpful to the spreading and applying of the zoning map.