大地坐标系应变张量表达及其与地心直角坐标系的相互转换

推导并给出了不同正交曲线坐标系应变张量和转动张量的普适表达和在旋转椭球坐标系下的应变张量表达,给出了不同正交曲线坐标系之间应变张量转换的普适表达式,以及在大地坐标系与地心直角坐标系这两种坐标系之间应变张量矩阵相互转换的具体表达,可供实际研究工作应用。     

旋转椭球面上的应变与转动张量表达

以旋转椭球体面上某点为原点建立一个大地坐标单位活动坐标架. 通过平移, 使活动坐标架的原点与以椭球中心为原点的笛卡尔单位标架的原点相重合. 然后再通过两次标架旋转, 使活动坐标架与笛卡尔单位标架完全重合. 本文给出了使两个单位标架相重合的转换关系式, 以及该点位移在两个单位标架中的坐标转换式; 在此基础上, 考虑该点的位移及活动坐标架皆为该点大地坐标的函数, 经复杂推导, 分别给出了该点位移向量的微分在大地坐标系中的分量以及该点分别沿坐标曲线的弧微分表达式, 继而导出了该点的位移梯度矩阵; 最后推导出了椭球坐标系的应变张量与转动张量表达式, 并对转动张量的几何含义进行了较详细的解释, 且采用曲面理论对球面与椭球面的应变张量间的内在关系进行了讨论.      

泰安地震台洞体应变与钻孔体应变参数解算结果对比分析

基于泰安台2013年洞体应变观测资料,首先利用维涅第科夫(Venedikov)调和分析方法计算洞体应变测项的潮汐因子和相位滞后,并以潮汐因子的稳定性对观测资料进行了质量评价。同时对观测仪器的2个测项进行解算,并提取相关应变参数进行对比。在此基础上,选取泰安台资料质量较稳定的体应变数据进行了应变参数时间序列计算,并对2套仪器观测数据进行了对比。通过分析,认定应力场存在异常,并对比分析了应力场异常与重力场异常的对应关系。     

曲线坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型研究

本文建立了顾及地球扁率和局部切标架随点变化特性的椭球坐标系下的刚体运动模型和块体运动与应变模型,以及球坐标系下顾及局部切标架随点变化特性的严密的块体运动与应变模型,分析了球坐标系下块体运动与应变模型及椭球坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型间的差异;通过计算具体讨论了地球扁率和曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对欧拉矢量与应变张量的影响.结果表明：地球扁率对刚体欧拉矢量和应变参数的影响甚小,具体计算时可以不予考虑,但曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对两者的影响较大,在建模过程中需要顾及,常用的Savage模型需要修正.     

铁岭地震台洞体应变参数解算与分析

针对铁岭地震台洞体应变观测资料,利用Venedikov调和分析方法计算铁岭地震台站洞体应变测项的潮汐因子和相位滞后,并以潮汐因子的稳定性对观测资料进行了质量评价;以铁岭地震台洞体应变讨论两分量观测解算平面应变参数,结果表明：铁岭洞体应变的最大剪应变T和面应变s在2006年和2009年出现了明显同步转折,可能反映了铁岭地震台及附近地区的应变出现了调整。     

地震的应变张量观测与应用前景

地震发生时的动态应变场,在研究地震触发、地震破裂、地面破坏、水文和岩浆变化等方面都具有重要应用意义.地震的应变张量观测和现有的惯性地震仪观测的物理量不同.前者可以直接记录到地震发生时震源辐射的应变（应力）波,而后者记录到的是位移、速度或加速度.地震频率的应变测量在地震学中的应用前景主要表现在：①测量震源机制解理论预言的辐射4象限分布;②测量库仑应力变化;③换算成动态应力以评估地震烈度;④测量地震波的能量密度;⑤测量地震断层形变加速和形变局部化过程.用惯性地震仪的记录虽然在理论上也可以解算出动态应变值,然而种种原因导致计算结果的误差很大,往往不可接受.应变张量地震仪若能与现有的惯性地震仪配套起来,形成大规模台阵,则有可能推动应变地震学的诞生,在地震观测和地震学科领域引起重大革新.

     

地壳应变主体单元模型及其与中强地震关系研究

讨论了目前利用GPS观测结果研究块体及其边界带应变状态的研究进展,阐明了与地震相关的块体边界活动构造附近是地壳应变主体区域的认识. 利用Scholz断层能量动态平衡过程,建立了断层周边应变累积与断层面构造力的一般物理关系,据此提出以断裂带为主体的地壳应变主体单元模型. 并利用GPS基准站连续观测资料讨论了模型力学状态演化与2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震过程的关系. 结果表明,强烈压剪背景中出现的相对松弛变化,可能有利于触发型中等强度地震的发生.      

GPS应变率场解算方法的对比分析及其可靠性研究

利用GPS速度场资料进行应变率场计算存在多种不同的计算方法,虽然理论上速度场与应变率为简单的偏导关系,但由于GPS观测为点测量方式,如何构建逼近真实的速度场进而计算可靠的应变率场就有其复杂的一面,因此实际计算中不同研究者即使利用相同的数据也很难得到相同的结果,究竟如何评价不同计算方法的可靠性和适用性就显得尤为重要.     

位移观测值协方差矩阵模拟及其在整体解算地壳应变场中的应用

借助高斯型函数模拟分散分布的不同监测网点位移观测值的协方差矩阵,并将其应用于广东新丰江地区地壳应变场的计算中．结果表明：本文的方法不仅计算简便,模拟效果及计算稳定性较好,而且对联系分散分布的单元有一定的意义     

Standardized uncertainty analysis for hydrometry: a review of relevant approaches and implementation examples

Abstract

The water-centric community has continuously made efforts to identify, assess and implement rigorous uncertainty analyses for routine hydrological measurements. This paper reviews some of the most relevant efforts and subsequently demonstrates that the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) is a good candidate for estimation of uncertainty intervals for hydrometry. The demonstration is made by implementing the GUM to typical hydrometric applications and comparing the analysis results with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method. The results show that hydrological measurements would benefit from the adoption of the GUM as the working standard, because of its soundness, the availability of software for practical implementation and potential for extending the GUM to hydrological/hydraulic numerical simulations.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Muste, M., Lee, K. and Bertrand-Krajewski, J.-L., 2012. Standardized uncertainty analysis for hydrometry: a review of relevant approaches and implementation examples. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 643–667.     

Uncertainty Analysis of Strong-Motion and Seismic Hazard

In this article we present the modelling of uncertainty in strong-motion studies for engineering applications, particularly for the assessment of earthquake hazard. We examine and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the basic variables involved in ground motion estimation equations, including those associated with the seismological parameters, which we derive from a considerable number of strong-motion records. Models derived from regression analysis result in ground motion equations with uncertain parameters, which are directly related to the selected basic variables thus providing an uncertainty measure for the derivative variable. These uncertainties are exemplified and quantified. An alternative approach is presented which is based on theoretical modelling defining a functional relationship on a set of independent basic variables. Uncertainty in the derivative variable is then readily obtained when the uncertainties of the basic variables have been defined. In order to simplify the presentation, only the case of shallow strike-slip earthquakes is presented. We conclude that the uncertainty is approximately the same as given by the residuals typical for regression modelling. This implies that uncertainty in ground motion modelling cannot be reduced below certain limits, which is in accordance with findings reported in the literature. Finally we discuss the implications of the presented methodology in hazard analyses, which is sensitive to the truncation of the internal error term, commonly given as an integral part of ground motion estimation equations. The presented methodology does not suffer from this shortcoming; it does not require truncation of the error term and yields realistic hazard estimates. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

库尔勒体应变观测资料可靠性分析

剔除库尔勒体应变观测资料中地震波、仪器标定及明确原因的干扰数据,计算应变潮汐因子、高频信息和非潮汐速率,结果显示：O1波、半日波潮汐因子在轮台5.4级、新源-和静交界6.6级地震前存在明显的异常反应,潮汐因子曲线形态、周期均发生明显的异常变化,异常结束后2-3个月内发震.总结体应变观测资料的异常特征,可有效捕捉前兆异常变化信息,有助于提高台站的地震短临预报水平.     

C-RESPONSE OF GEOMAGNETIC DEPTH SOUNDING ON A 1D THIN SHELL MODEL

This paper tries to formulate the C-response of geomagnetic depth sounding(GDS)on an Earth model with finite electrical conductivity. The computation is performed in a spherical coordinate system. The Earth is divided into a series of thin spherical shells. The source is approximated by a single spherical harmonic P₁⁰ due to the spatial structure of electrical currents in the magnetosphere. The whole solution space is separated into inner and external parts by the Earth surface. Omitting displacement current, the magnetic field in the external space obeys Laplacian equation, while in the inner part, due to the finite conductivity, the electromagnetic fields obey Helmholtz equation. To connect the magnetic fields in the inner and external space, the continuity condition of magnetic fields is used on the Earth surface. The external magnetic fields are expressed by the inner and external source coefficients, from which a new parameter called C-response is computed from the inner coefficient divided by the external coefficient, thus normalizing the actual source strength. The inner magnetic fields in each layer can be recursively derived by the continuity boundary condition of both normal and tangential components of the magnetic field from the initial boundary condition at core-mantle-boundary. The consistency of our C-responses with that from a typical 1-D global model validates the accuracy of the proposed algorithm. Numerical results also show that the C-response estimated from the geomagnetic transfer function method will deviate exceeding 5%from the actual response at longer periods than about 10⁶s, which means that ignoring the curvature of the Earth at extreme long periods will make inversion result unreliable. Therefore, an accurate C-response should be computed in order to lay a solid foundation for reliable inversion.     

恭城—栗木断裂带的应变特征与变形环境探讨

通过系统的有限应变测量与差异应力估算,探讨了恭城—栗木断裂带的应变特征与变形环境,以其推动该断裂带的研究向更深层次发展。结果表明：①付林指数K的变化范围为0.32～1.67;应变主轴平均方位为276°∠21°,与断裂带的整体逆冲方向基本一致;断裂带的平均应变程度为2.26～3.00,属中等应变程度;断裂带的应变类型属压扁型应变与单剪型平面应变的一种复合叠加类型。②断裂带的差异应力值为40～80 MPa,变形深度小于10 km,属半脆性—半韧性的变形域。③断裂带的应变特征与变形环境及宏观构造样式基本吻合。     

格尔木地震台阵监测能力估计

为满足地震监测需要,在中国西部格尔木地区拟建立小孔径地震台阵,并建立临时地震台阵。新建临时台阵记录到青海地震月报目录中大部分地震,及目录中未有地震序列60多个。可见,格尔木地震台阵的建立将改善该地区地震监测能力,从而改善中国西部地区的地震监测能力。     

Monitoring of seismic events from a specific source region using a single regional array: A case study

In the monitoring of earthquakes and nuclear explosions using a sparse worldwide network of seismic stations, it is frequently necessary to make reliable location estimates using a single seismic array. It is also desirable to screen out routine industrial explosions automatically in order that analyst resources are not wasted upon detections which can, with a high level of confidence, be associated with such a source. The Kovdor mine on the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia is the site of frequent industrial blasts which are well recorded by the ARCES regional seismic array at a distance of approximately 300 km. We describe here an automatic procedure for identifying signals which are likely to result from blasts at the Kovdor mine and, wherever possible, for obtaining single array locations for such events. Carefully calibrated processing parameters were chosen using measurements from confirmed events at the mine over a one-year period for which the operators supplied Ground Truth information. Phase arrival times are estimated using an autoregressive method and slowness and azimuth are estimated using broadband f{-}k analysis in fixed frequency bands and time-windows fixed relative to the initial P-onset time. We demonstrate the improvement to slowness estimates resulting from the use of fixed frequency bands. Events can be located using a single array if, in addition to the P-phase, at least one secondary phase is found with both an acceptable slowness estimate and valid onset-time estimate. We evaluate the on-line system over a twelve month period; every event known to have occured at the mine is detected by the process and 32 out of 53 confirmed events were located automatically. The remaining events were classified as “very likely” Kovdor events and were subsequently located by an analyst. The false alarm rate is low; only 84 very likely Kovdor events were identified during the whole of 2003 and none of these were subsequently located at a large distance from the mine. The location accuracy achieved automatically by the single-array process is remarkably good, and is comparable to that obtained interactively by an experienced analyst using two-array observations. The greatest problem encountered in the single array location procedure is the difficulty in determining arrival times for secondary phases, given the weak Sn phase and the complexity of the P-coda. The method described here could be applied to a wide range of locations and sources for which the monitoring of seismic activity is desirable. The effectiveness will depend upon the distance between source and receiver, the nature of the seismic sources and the level of regional seismicity.