海洋平台结构抗震可靠性时程分析方法

将地震运动视为随机过程,建立海洋平台结构在地震作用任一时刻基于剪切变形控制的极限状态方程,应用JC法计算海洋平台结构在地震作用任一时刻的可靠度,得到海洋平台结构抗震可靠度的时程曲线。该方法可满足工程设计的要求,便于工程应用。     

The significance of earthquake-induced dynamic forces in coastal structures design

The dynamic forces of sea water and backfill soil acting on coastal embankments and the hydrodynamic forces on offshore breakwaters have been analyzed using a finite-difference scheme. A non-horizontal sea bottom is considered in the analysis. Both rigid and flexible embankments are included in the study. For a coastal embankment, the hydrodynamic pressure of sea water acting on the embankment face significantly increases as the slope of the sea bottom increases. On the other side of the embankment, the pore pressure and the interaction force between the soil and fluid will augment significantly when the backfill soil is compressed during earthquakes. When the sea-embankment-backfill soil interaction is included, the dynamic forces acting on a flexible embankment are much larger than those on a rigid one. The comparison of evaluating the sliding of a cassion in a case study of SPM by a conventional analysis and the present seismic analysis was made. The earthquake-induced dynamic pressures on both sides of the embankment (or breakwater) could be much larger than the force generated by the storm surge. The hydrodynamic (or seismic) analysis incorporating the effect of an earthquake should be included in the coastal embankment or offshore breakwater design, especially for the area with active earthquakes.     

Studies on Stochastic Parametric Roll of Ship with Stochastic Averaging Method

The paper studies the parametric stochastic roll motion in the random waves. The differential equation of the ship parametric roll under random wave is established with considering the nonlinear damping and ship speed. Random sea surface is treated as a narrow-band stochastic process, and the stochastic parametric excitation is studied based on the effective wave theory. The nonlinear restored arm function obtained from the numerical simulation is expressed as the approximate analytic function. By using the stochastic averaging method, the differential equation of motion is transformed into Ito's stochastic differential equation. The steady-state probability density function of roll motion is obtained, and the results are validated with the numerical simulation and model test.     

Stochastic stability of tethered buoyant platforms

A moment method for analysing the stochastic stability of the surge motion of a tethered buoyant platform (TBP) in a random sea is examined. In the differential equation describing the surge motion the variation of tether tension caused by the vertical component of the wave forces is random-time dependent in form. The asymptotic moment behaviour of the solution is determined and approximated in terms of an integral equation. Under the assumption of a narrow band process imposed upon the random coefficient, the stability results are obtained with the aid of deterministic stability theory. The mean square stability is studied and criteria for stability are obtained in terms of the damping coefficient and the auto-correlation function of the random sea.     

Stochastic Response Analysis of Piled Offshore Platforms to Earthquake Load

- In this paper, using the theory of stochastic analysis of the response to earthquake load, a stochastic analysis method of the response of piled platforms to earthquake load has been established. In the method, the strong ground motion is considered as three dimensional stationary white noise process and the pile-soil interaction and water-structure interaction are considered. The stochastic response of a typical platform to eqrthquake load has been computed with this method and the results compared with those obtained with the response spectrum analysis method. The comparison shows that the stochastic analysis method of the response of piled platforms to earthquake load is suitable for this kind of analysis.     

Numerical Analysis of Seismic Performance of Embankment Supported by Micropiles

This paper presents a numerical model of the seismic behavior for the embankment constructed on micropile composite foundation. The effect of micropiles on soil reinforcement under static and seismic loading was studied. Embankments on the untreated and treated soil by micropiles were numerically simulated using an axisymmetric elastoplastic large deformation finite-element analysis code. The displacement caused by embankment static loading and acceleration of the embankment caused by seismic loading were calculated and compared. It was shown that micropiles can greatly reduce the settlement of the embankment and mitigate seismic response of the embankment. The main objective of this paper is to present a numerical model and to investigate the seismic behavior of micropile foundations subjected to seismic loading. A series of numerical simulations and parametric studies are presented.     

Potential Seismic Risk in Taiwan Strait Region

GPS observation indicates that the Fujian coastal region of China mainland, the region of Taiwan Strait and northern Taiwan island all show a generally homogenous horizontal motion with weak deformation. Historical earthquake record over more than 800 years and modern instrumental data reveal that there is potential seismic risk in and around Taiwan Strait region. After the National Seismic Zoning Map of China (2001) the expected seismic risk in northern part of the Taiwan Strait is lower than that in middle and southern part. The suggested northern route of the Taiwan Strait passage project seems to be relatively save seismically.     

Potential Seismic Risk in Taiwan Strait Region

GPS observation indicates that the Fujian coastal region of China mainland, the region of Taiwan Strait and northern Taiwan island all show a generally homogenous horizontal motion with weak deformation. Historical earthquake record over more than 800 years and modern instrumental data reveal that there is potential seismic risk in and around Taiwan Strait region. After the National Seismic Zoning Map of China (2001) the expected seismic risk in northern part of the Taiwan Strait is lower than that in middle and southern part. The suggested northern route of the Taiwan Strait passage project seems to be relatively save seismically.     

Improving the prediction of extreme FPSO hawser tension,using another highly correlated hawser tension with a longer time record

The floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport. Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during the FPSO offloading operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during certain sea conditions, posing an operational risk. In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) software ANSYS AQWA has been employed to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions.In some practical situations, it would be useful to improve the accuracy of some statistical predictions based on a certain stochastic random process, given another synchronous highly correlated stochastic process that has been measured for a longer time, than the process of interest. In this paper, the issue of improving extreme value prediction has been addressed. In other words, an efficient transfer of information is necessary between two synchronous, highly correlated stochastic processes. Two such highly correlated FPSO hawser tension processes were simulated in order to test the efficiency of the proposed technique.     

Characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska

Abstract

The characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska and the relative significance of earthquake sources for establishing seismic design inputs at a typical site for engineering purposes are discussed. Earthquake sources in the complex tectonic environment can be divided into two groups: (a) a subduction zone that underlies the entire region (maximum magnitude M = 8.5); and (b) individual thrust and strike‐slip faults associated with the plate motions (maximum magnitude M = 6 to 7.5). The sources of either group and individual earthquake events can be represented as planar surfaces for consistency with the physical process and a mathematically tractable computational scheme.

Although the area is very active seismically, the degree of activity of individual sources varies significantly. Therefore, even for sources with the same maximum earthquakes, different magnitudes may apply for a selected design return period. The area is considered to be a “seismic gap.”; No great earthquakes have occurred in nearly 80 years. Estimates based on a temporally varying seismic function such as the semi‐Markov model indicate that the probability of occurrence of a great earthquake in the near future is significantly higher than the average probability inferred from a statistical analysis of historical seismicity data of the entire region.

Separate attenuation relationships should be used for calculating ground motions due to earthquakes on the dipping subduction zone in the northern portion of the gulf. The dominant earthquake source for almost the entire Gulf of Alaska region is the subduction zone that contributes over 80 percent of the seismic exposure at a typical site. The dominant magnitude range is M_s = 6.5 to 7.5. “Gap filling”; earthquakes (M_s = 7.5 to 8.25) contribute a little over a third of the seismic exposure at a typical site. Deterministic assessments of ground motion values using the maximum earthquake on the subduction zone at the closest distance yield values significantly higher than those calculated for even 500‐year return periods. Estimated 100‐year return period accelerations in the area range from 180 to 340 cm/sec².     

Probabilistic Analysis for Seismic Stability of Beach Earth Embankment

The current safety factor method for evaluating earth embankment stability is not very rational since the assessment of slope stability is really an uncertainty problem. In order to consider the random property of this problem, the probabilistic analysis is introduced herein. Finally, the stability of a real beach earth embankment is analysed by means of the suggested probabilitic approach. It may be seen that the results of analysis can represent the numerical assessment of the degree of seismic stability.     

2011年日本Mw 9.0级地震的GPS响应研究

2011年3月11日日本宫城县以东太平洋海域发生Mw9.0级特大地震,造成了地表的严重错位并引发海啸。文中利用位于日本及周边国家的IGS站和国家海洋局GPS业务站观测数据,采用作者研制的精密单点定位(PPP)软件UniP,对此次地震的GPS数据响应进行了研究。结果表明:(1)GPS观测数据能清晰、连续地记录震时地表形变的过程,我国CHAN,NCST等站点水平方向的震时最大位移在10 cm以内,高程方向的震时最大位移在15 cm以内,且形变以可恢复性的弹性形变为主。(2)我国距震中较远,受此次日本地震的影响较小,且大部分站点是在东坐标方向出现不同程度的震后永久性位移。其中CHAN站点的震后位移最为明显,东向形变量为(1.8±0.11)cm;NCST、NLHT站点次之,东向形变量分别为(1.1±0.26)cm和(1.0±0.18)cm。(3)地震波传输到国家海洋局GPS业务站NCST、NLHT等的时间约为10 min,比海啸在深海的传播速度快约14倍,可为海啸预警提供所需的时间差。这些结果显示出GPS能够为地震监测和动力学特征研究提供有价值的基础资料,也表明中国沿海GPS业务观测系统在海底地震监测、海啸预警服务中的应用潜力。     

Hybrid Analysis Approach for Stochastic Response of Offshore Jacket Platforms

The dynamic response of offshore platforms is more serious in hostile sea environment than inshallow sea.In this paper,a hybrid solution combined with analytical and numerical method is proposedto compute the stochastic response of fixed offshore platforms to random waves,considering wave-struc-ture interaction and non-linear drag force.The simulation program includes two steps:the first step is theeigenanalysis aspects associated the structure and the second step is response estimation based on spectralequations.The eigenanalysis could be done through conventional finite element method conveniently andits natural frequency and mode shapes obtained.In the second part of the process,the solution of theoffshore structural response is obtained by iteration of a series of coupled spectral equations.Consideringthe third-order term in the drag force,the evaluation of the three-fold convolution should be demanded fornonlinear stochastic response analysis.To demonstrate this method,a numerical analysis is carrie     

地震荷载沉箱码头大变形分析的离散元法初探

探讨了应用离散元分析方法求解地震荷载下沉箱和背后填土大变形问题的可能性,开发了能描述沉箱的平面形状及沉箱与土体摩擦特性的矩形单元。并通过简单实例分析了地震时沉箱码头的变形,再现了沉箱码头地震灾害的发生过程,为沉箱在地震情况下的大变形分析提供了一种新途径。比较了两种沉箱模型对分析结果的影响,提出了相应的方法。     

海堤地震稳定性的概率分析

由于土坡稳定性分析实际上为一非确值性的问题，故一般通用的安全系数法分析海堤的稳定性不甚合理［１］。为考虑这一问题的随机性，文中引入概率分析的方法。最后基于所建议的概率方法分析了某实际海堤的地震稳定性，给出了该海堤稳定程度的定量评价。     

Fuzzy Probabilistic Analysis of Seismic Stability of Coastal Embankment

The stability of slope is affected by a number of factors, some of which have not only random property but also fuzzy characteristic. Therefore, the analysis of slope stability is really an uncertain problem. The customary safety factor does not in reality reflect stability scientifically, quantitatively and practically. In order to obtain more practical results, the slope stability is treated as a fuzzy random event for the evaluation of its fuzzy probability. Finally, the seismic stability of an existing coastal embankment is analyzed by means of the suggested fuzzy probabilistic method. It may be seen that the results of analysis can more fully represent the numerical assessment of the degree of slope seismic stability.     

Seismic response of submerged floating tunnel tether

A mathematical equation for vibration of submerged floating tunnel tether under the effects of earthquake and parametric excitation is presented.Multi-step Galerkin method is used to simplify this equation and the fourth-order Runge-Kuta integration method is used for numerical analysis.Finally,vibration response of submerged floating tunnel tether subjected to earthquake and parametric excitation is analyzed in a few numerical examples.The results show that the vibration response of tether varies with the seismic wave type;the steady maximum mid-span displacement of tether subjected to seismic wave keeps constant when parametric resonance takes place;the transient maximum mid-span displacement of tether is related to the peak value of input seismic wave acceleration.     

Applying chaos to radar detection in an ocean environment: anexperimental study

Ship navigation through ice-infested waters is a problem of deep concern to the oil exploration industry of Northern countries. Conventional marine radars do not perform satisfactorily in detecting small targets such as small pieces of iceberg. This paper reports a new method for detection in an ocean environment. The approach is based on the recent observation that sea clutter, radar echoes from the sea surface, can be modeled as a nonlinear deterministic dynamical system which can be used as an alternative to the conventional stochastic process. Based on this model, detection in sea clutter is considered as dynamical system classification instead of statistical hypothesis testing. Two dynamical detection methods are proposed. The first one uses a dynamical invariant called the attractor dimension to distinguish a target from a pure clutter process. The second approach tries to detect the existence of a target by observing the “difference” of the motion of the target and the clutter process. To show the validity of the idea of dynamical detection in sea clutter, real sea clutter, and target data were used in this study     

Seismic amplifications from offshore to shore

The objective of this study is to determine numerical estimations of seismic amplifications of waves traveling from offshore to shore considering the effect of sea floor configurations. According to the Boundary Element Method, boundary elements were used to irradiate waves and density force can be determined for each element. From this hypothesis, Huygens’ Principle is implemented since diffracted waves are constructed at the boundary from which they are radiated and this is equivalent to Somigliana's theorem. Application of boundary conditions leads to determine a system of integral equations of Fredholm type of second kind, which is solved by the Gaussian method. Various numerical models were analyzed, a first one was used to validate the proposed formulation and some other models were used to show various ideal sea floor configurations to estimate seismic amplifications. Once the formulation was validated, basic slope configurations were studied for estimating spectra of seismic amplifications for various sea floor materials. In general terms, compressional waves (P-waves) can produce seismic amplifications of the incident wave in the order of 2–5. On the other hand, distortional waves (S-waves) can produce amplifications up to 5.5 times the incident wave. A relevant finding is that the highest seismic amplifications due to an offshore earthquake are always located near the shore-line and not offshore despite the seafloor configuration.     

Great Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011: Preliminary seismological analysis

The results of a preliminary analysis of the source zone of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M _w = 9.1) near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, are considered. We traced the seismic history of the release of the cumulative scalar seismic moment for the last 110 years and temporal variations in the ordering index for the last 35 years. These parameters are important characteristics of a seismotectonic deformation process. The foreshock activation stage and the initial phase of the aftershock process are studied based on these characteristics.