Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).     

Tsunamigenic zones in the Mediterranean Sea

A list of 300 tsunamis and similar phenomena known in the Mediterranean is given. Data reliability and wave intensity are estimated; mechanisms of tsunami generation are indicated and data from literature sources on the coordinates and magnitudes of tsunamigenic earthquakes are cited. Eighteen zones of excitation and manifestation of tsunamis are identified which can be integrated into four groups with respect to the recurrence period and maximum intensity of the tsunamis. The strongest tsunamis are excited in the Aegean Sea, and the Hellenic and Calabrian island arcs. The focal depth of the earthquake-generating tsunamis in the Mediterranean is, on average, less than that in the Pacific. Correspondingly, the magnitude of tsunamigenic earthquakes is lower. According to preliminary estimates, the Mediterranean tsunamis attenuate with distance more rapidly than do those in the Pacific Ocean.     

Tsunami magnitudes in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M _s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M _s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M _s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M _s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M _s> 6.5.     

Impact of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program on Operations of the Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

The first 7 years of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) have had a significant positive impact on operations of the Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). As a result of its seismic project, the amount and quality of real-time seismic data flowing into PTWC has increased dramatically, enabling more rapid, accurate, and detailed analyses of seismic events with tsunamigenic potential. Its tsunameter project is now providing real-time tsunameter data from seven strategic locations in the deep ocean to more accurately measure tsunami waves as they propagate from likely source regions toward shorelines at risk. These data have already been used operationally to help evaluate potential tsunami threats. A new type of tsunami run-up gauge has been deployed in Hawaii to more rapidly assess local tsunamis. Lastly, numerical modeling of tsunamis done with support from the NTHMP is beginning to provide tools for real-time tsunami forecasting that should reduce the incidence of unnecessary warnings and provide more accurate forecasts for destructive tsunamis.     

The great 1787 Mexican tsunami

Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence. The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis. Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico     

Historical tsunamis in the Adriatic Sea

Tsunami activity in the Adriatic Sea from the sixteenth century until the present has been analysed with the ultimate goal to improve the European tsunami catalogue and provide data for a new geo-database of tsunami events in the European-Mediterranean region. The study encompasses twenty-seven events, nine on the western and eighteen on the eastern coast of the Adriatic, with special attention being devoted to contemporary sources and to local journals and newspapers. For all the analysed events, the path of information from coeval sources, through the nineteenth century and up to modern tsunami catalogues, has been constructed. Tsunamis on the western coast have already been studied, but to obtain a coherent picture of tsunamigenic activity in the Adriatic Sea, they have been included in this work. Furthermore, the study was extended to see whether they had propagated to the opposite coast. Most of the events on the eastern coast have now been systematically analysed for the first time. The search of bibliographical sources revealed three new reports on tsunamis on the eastern coast that had not been previously recorded in international publications. The study established that, out of the eighteen eastern Adriatic events, twelve can be considered false, while six were true tsunamis. In the last 600 years, fifteen true tsunami events occurred in the Adriatic. One was very strong, six were strong or rather strong, and eight were light tsunamis. As a final result of this analysis, carried out according to standardised criteria, fifteen Adriatic tsunami events will be inserted in the TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region) database for the European-Mediterranean region.     

Assessment of the tsunami hazard on the Russian coast based on a new catalogue of tsunamis in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov

We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given.     

Delay times of worldwide global earthquake alerts

Quantitative estimates of earthquake losses are needed as soon as possible after an event. A majority of earthquake-prone countries lack the necessary dense seismograph networks, modern communication, and in some places the experts to assess losses immediately, so the earliest possible warnings must come from global information and international experts. Earthquakes of interest to us are in most areas of the world M ≥ 6. In this article, we have analyzed the response time for distributing source parameter estimates from: National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological Survey (USGS), the European Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC), and Geophysical Institute-Russian Academy of Science, Obninsk (RAS). In terms of earthquake consequences, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (TWC) issues assessments of the likelihood of tsunamis, the Joint Research Laboratory in Ispra, Italy (JRC) issues alerts listing sociological aspects of the affected region, and we distribute loss estimates, and recently the USGS has started posting impact assessment information on their PAGER web page. Two years ago, the USGS reduced its median delay of distributing earthquake source parameters by a factor of 2 to the currently observed 26 min, and they distribute information for 99% of the events of interest to us. The median delay of EMSC is 41 min, with 30% of our target events reported. RAS reports after 81 min and 30% of the target events. The first tsunami assessments by TWC reach us 18 min (median) after large earthquakes in the Pacific area. The median delay of alerts by the JRC is 44 min (36 min recently). The World Agency for Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction (WAPMERR) distributes detailed loss estimates in 41 min (median). Moment tensor solutions of the USGS, which can be helpful for refining loss estimates, reach us in 78 min (median) for 58% of the earthquakes of interest.     

Tsunami Waves with an Initial Negative Wave on the Chilean Coast

This work describes the characteristics of a tsunami with an initial negative wave in the Pacific Ocean. These tsunamis fall into two classes; one class is produced by strong earthquakes and the other by earthquakes of moderate size. The relationship between the run-up probability occurrence is determined for both classes of tsunami and the mechanisms by which the tsunamis are generated is considered with reference to the keyboard model of tsunamigenic earthquakes. Tsunamis in the Arica region of northern Chile were analysed in more detail and these analyses suggest that a catastrophic tsunami is likely to occur in the Arica region in the next 10–20 years.     

Evidence of extreme wave events from boulder deposits on the south-east coast of Malta (Central Mediterranean)

Large boulder accumulations have been observed on various coasts bordering the Mediterranean and have been associated with extreme wave events such as powerful storms or tsunamis. This study provides an in-depth analysis of 430 boulder deposits, located along a 3.5 km stretch of rocky coast situated on the SE of the Maltese Islands. It includes a geomorphometric analysis of the observed boulders and use of numerical modelling to estimate wave height required to initiate boulder movement. Comparisons of aerial imagery over a period of 46 years have made it possible to identify boulder movement that could only be attributed to storm waves, given that no local tsunamigenic event has been recorded over this time period. Positioned in the central Mediterranean, the Maltese Islands are exposed to potential tsunamis generated by seismic activity associated with the Malta Escarpment, and the Calabrian and Hellenic arcs. Although imprints from historic tsunami impact cannot be excluded, results indicate that the area is exposed to strong storm waves that are capable of displacing some of the very large boulders observed on site.

     

Contamination of tsunami sediments in a coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand

Tsunami sediments deposited in a coastal zone of Thailand by the 26 December 2004 tsunami wave were sampled within 50 days after the event. All surface and ground waters in tsunami- inundated zone revealed significant salinity at that time. The tsunami sediments, composed mainly of fine to medium sand, contain significantly elevated contents of salts (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca⁺², Mg⁺², Cl and SO ₄ ⁻² ) in water-soluble fraction, and of Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb in the bioavailable fraction and As in the exchangeable fraction in relation to the reference sample. The origin of contaminants is marine, as well as litho- and anthropogenic. The salts and Pb, Zn and Cu reveal high correlation to each other and to the mean grain size (pore size and porosity). Serious environmental hazard exists in that region because, due to gentle morphology, there is a risk of migration of the contaminants into ground waters and food chain.     

Reassessing the tsunami risk in major ports and harbors of California I: San Diego

We assess tsunami hazards in San Diego Bay, California, using newly identified offshore tsunami sources and recently available high resolution bathymetric/topographic data. Using MOST (Titov and Synolakis, J Waterways Port Coastal Ocean Eng ASCE 124(4):57–171, 1998), we simulate locally, regionally and distant-generated tsunamis. Local tsunami source models use more realistic fault and landslide data than previous efforts. With the exception of the Alaska-Aleutian Trench, modeling results suggest that local sources are responsible for the largest waves within the San Diego Bay and Mission Bay. Because San Diego Bay is relatively well protected by North Island and the Silver Strand, the wave heights predicted are consistently smaller inside the harbor than outside. However, historical accounts, recent tsunamis and our predictions show that San Diego Bay is vulnerable to strong tsunami induced currents. More specifically, large currents are expected inside the harbor for various distant and local tsunami sources with estimated flow velocities exceeding 100 cm/s. Such currents have been damaging to harbor facilities, such as wharves and piers, and may cause boats to break from moorings and ram into adjacent harbor structures, as observed in recent historic tsunamis. More recently, following the M _w 8.8 February 27, 2010 Chile earthquake, tsunami-currents damaged docks/piers in Shelter Island confirming our findings. We note that the first generation of inundation maps in use in San Diego County by emergency management was based on much larger “worst case but realistic scenarios” (Synolakis et al. 2002a), which reflected the understanding of offshore hazards pervasive ten years ago. Large inundation and overland flow depths were observed primarily in local tsunami source simulations. In particular, locally induced tsunamis appear capable to overtop the Silver Strand. The results suggest that further work needs to be carried out with respect to local tsunami sources as they seem to have worse impact in the San Diego region than previously thought but probably low probability of occurrence. We also predict that a coastal community can be devastated simultaneously by large waves inundating shores and large currents in locations with small flow depths.     

Tsunamis on the Russian Pacific coast: history and current situation

The Pacific coast, including the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuriles, the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Bering Sea, is the main tsunami-prone area in Russia. The Far East tsunamis are much more frequent, extensive, and devastating than those in the Black, Caspian, Baltic, and White Sea coasts, as well as in major inland lakes of Baikal, Ladoga, etc. The tsunami catalog of the Russian Far East from 1737 to present lists 110 events with mainly near-field and few far-field sources (105 and 5 events, respectively). Most of the catalogued tsunamis (95 cases) were induced by earthquakes, and few events had volcanic (3), landsliding (2), meteorological (3), and unknown (2) triggers. Altogether there were eleven devastating tsunamis for the period of observations, with > 10 m heights, two of which were great events in 1737 and 1952, when the waves exceeded 20 m. The wave heights were in the range 2.5-10 m in fifteen hazardous tsunami events and within the tidal range (~ 1-2 m) in thirteen cases; the other events were small and detectable only instrumentally. Thus, the average recurrence times for tsunamis of different magnitudes in the Russian Pacific coast are 25 years for devastating events and 10-15 years for hazardous tsunamis; small tsunamis occur almost every year, according to statistics for the last sixty years collected at the regional network of tide stations. The topics discussed in the paper concern the completeness and reliability of the Far East catalog; distribution of tsunami events in space and time; correlation between the intensity of tsunami and the magnitude of the causative undersea earthquake; tsunami recurrence; tsunami warning; and long-term hazard assessment and mapping.     

Volcanic tsunami: a review of source mechanisms, past events and hazards in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea)

Southeast Asia has had both volcanic tsunamis and possesses some of the most densely populated, economically important and rapidly developing coastlines in the world. This contribution provides a review of volcanic tsunami hazard in Southeast Asia. Source mechanisms of tsunami related to eruptive and gravitational processes are presented, together with a history of past events in the region. A review of available data shows that many volcanoes are potentially tsunamigenic and present often neglected hazard to the rapidly developing coasts of the region. We highlight crucial volcanic provinces in Indonesia, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea and propose strategies for facing future events.     

Tsunami hazard evaluation for Kuwait and Arabian Gulf due to Makran Subduction Zone and Subaerial landslides

Given the recent historical disastrous tsunamis and the knowledge that the Arabian Gulf (AG) is tectonically active, this study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards in Kuwait from both submarine earthquakes and subaerial landslides. Despite the low or unknown tsunami risks that impose potential threats to the coastal area’s infrastructures and population of Kuwait, such an investigation is important to sustain the economy and safety of life. This study focused on tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes with earthquake magnitudes (M _w ) of 8.3–9.0 along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and subaerial landslides with volumes of 0.75–2.0 km³ from six sources along the Iranian coast inside the AG and one source at the Gulf entrance in Oman. The level of tsunami hazards associated with these tsunamigenic sources was evaluated using numerical modeling. Tsunami model was applied to conduct a numerical tsunami simulation and predict tsunami propagation. For landslide sources, a two-layer model was proposed to solve nonlinear longwave equations within two interfacing layers with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions. Threat level maps along the coasts of the AG and Kuwait were developed to illustrate the impacts of potential tsunamis triggered by submarine earthquakes of different scales and subaerial landslides at different sources. GEBCO 30 arc-second grid data and others were used as bathymetry and topography data for numerical modeling. Earthquakes of M _w 8.3 and M _w 8.6 along the MSZ had low and considerable impacts, respectively, at the Gulf entrance, but negligible impacts on Kuwait. An earthquake of M _w 9.0 had a remarkable impact for the entire Gulf region and generated a maximum tsunami amplitude of up to 0.5 m along the Kuwaiti coastline 12 h after the earthquake. In the case of landslides inside the AG, the majority impact occurred locally near the sources. The landslide source opposite to Kuwait Bay generated the maximum tsunami amplitudes reaching 0.3 m inside Kuwait Bay and 1.8 m along the southern coasts of Kuwait.

     

A catalog of tsunamis in New Caledonia from 28 March 1875 to 30 September 2009

In order to establish a tsunami alert system in New Caledonia in April 2008, the French Secretary of State for Overseas Affairs, with the aid of the UNESCO French Commission, mandated an investigation to build a more complete record of the most recent tsunamis. To complete this task, a call for witnesses was broadcast through various media and in public locations. These witnesses were then interviewed onsite about the phenomenon they had observed. Previous witness reports that had been obtained in the last few years were also used. For the most recent events, various archives were consulted. In total, 18 events were documented, of which 12 had not been previously mentioned in past work. These results confirm an exposure to a hazard of: (1) local origin (the southern part of the Vanuatu arc) with a very short post-seismic delay (< 30 min) before the arrival of wave trains; (2) regional origin (Solomon Islands arc, northern part of the Vanuatu arc) with a delay of several hours; and (3) an exposure to trans-oceanic tsunamis (Kamchatka 1952, South Chile 1960, Kuril Islands 2006, North Tonga 2009), unknown until today. These results highlight the necessity for New Caledonia to adopt an alert system, coupled with ocean tide gauges, that liaises with the main alert system for the Pacific (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), and brings to light the importance of establishing a prevention campaign.     

Estimates of Tsunami Risk Zones on the Coasts Adjacent to the East (Japan) Sea based on the Synthetic Catalogue

Prognostic characteristics of tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea based on numerical simulations are investigated by using linear long wave theory. Due to the lack of observed data, the concept of the synthetic catalogue is applied to generate possible tsunami scenarios. It includes four real events that occurred in the East (Japan) Sea during the 20th century, 24 hypothetical tsunamigenic earthquakes located in the gap zones of the seismic map, and 76 idealized model ‘hydrodynamic’ sources covering the eastern part of the East (Japan) Sea uniformly. The tsunami wave height distributions along the East (Japan) Sea coastline due to these hypothetical events are computed. From the geographical distributions of tsunami wave height for all possible events, it is found that there exist several coastal locations where the tsunami risk is relatively lower than in other zones. The relation between the maximal value of the tsunami height and its average value is analyzed. It is found that the maximal tsunami height does not exceed the mean wave height times a constant. The uniform bounded curve for all areas can be obtained if the mean wave height is replaced by the modified mean wave height (1/3 of largest waves). The problem of quantitative definition of the prognostic tsunami wave height for each location based on the data from the synthetic catalogue is discussed. The results of tsunami wave height analysis based on the synthetic catalogue can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.     

A geological record of multiple Pleistocene tsunami inundations in an oceanic island: The case of Maio,Cape Verde

In the Central Atlantic archipelagos – the Canaries, Cape Verde, Madeira and the Azores – tsunami hazard is often regarded as low, when compared with other extreme wave events such as hurricanes and storms. The geological record of many of these islands, however, suggests that tsunami hazard may be underestimated, notwithstanding being lower than in areas adjacent to subduction zones, such as the margins of the Pacific and Indian oceans. Moreover, tsunamis in oceanic islands are generally triggered by local large-scale volcanic flank collapses, for which little is known about their frequency, making it difficult to estimate the probability of a new occurrence. Part of the problem lies in the fact that tsunami deposits are usually difficult to date, and few islands in the world exhibit evidence for repeated tsunami inundation on a protracted timescale. This study reports on the presence of abundant tsunami deposits (conglomerates and sandstones) on Maio Island (Cape Verde) and discusses their stratigraphy, sedimentological characteristics, probable age and tsunamigenic source. Observations indicate that four distinct inundation events of variable magnitude took place during the Pleistocene. One of the tsunami deposits yielded a high-confidence U/Th age of 78·8 ± 0·9 ka, which overlaps within error with the 73 ± 7 ka age proposed for Fogo volcano's flank collapse, an event known to have had a significant tsunami impact on nearby Santiago Island. This shows that the Fogo tsunami also impacted Maio, resulting in runups in excess of 60 m above coeval sea-level at ca 120 km from the source. Two older deposits, possibly linked to recurrent flank collapses of the Tope de Coroa volcano in Santo Antão Island, yielded lower-confidence ages of 479 to 390 ka and 360 to 304 ka. A younger deposit (<78 ka) remains undated. In summary, the geological record of Maio exhibits well-preserved evidence of repeated tsunami inundation, reinforcing the notion that tsunami hazard is not so low at volcanic archipelagos featuring prominent and highly-active volcanoes such as in Cape Verde.