霍山"震情窗"地区流动地磁S异常与华东中强地震相关性的研究

以霍山“震情窗”地区流动地磁测线的S值变化,预测霍山“震情窗”相关地区－华东地区中强地震,研究结果表明：“震情窗”地区流动地磁测线的S值异常与距离霍山“震情窗”R＜500km的华东中强地震有明显的相关性。     

中小地震的流磁异常信息

在孕震区形成期间，流动地磁测线各测点的局部地磁场因受孕震区应力场的主控，可能出现δf“同向”变化的现象，从而整条测线同一期各测点或同是δf＞0，或同是δf＜0。笔者认为整条流动地磁测线同一期各测点出现分“同向”变化，可能是流动地磁测线邻近地区中小地震的流动地磁异常信息。     

六安流动地磁测量异常的映震能力探讨

将安徽省六安地区流动地磁测线12个流动地磁测点的∑│δfi│异常与安徽中西部地震活动性作对比分析，初步结果为：12个流动地磁测点的∑│δfi│≥Fu），一年内安徽中西部地区的地震活动性增强；反之，则安徽中西部地区的地震活动性较弱。此方法在地震的中短期预报中有一定的实用意义。     

福建沿海地区流动地磁测量对大于ML4．0级震的映震能力分析

利用1990年以来福建沿海地区流动地磁观测资料,以｜δfij｜≥3nT为异常指标,对同一期｜δfij｜≥3nT的测点数作统计,分析研究1990年以来发生在福建地区及其近海域的地震与地磁异常变化的关系,结果表明,福建沿海地区流动地磁变化与福建省东南沿海及其近海域〉ML4．0级的地震存在较好的对应关系,但对福建省中西部地区映震能力较差。     

吴忠地震窗S值异常与宁夏及邻区中强地震的对应关系

<正>1研究背景地震活动度S（下文简称S值）用于定量描述地震活动性的强弱程度,包括地震频度、平均震级、平均释放能量、最大震级以及地震空间分布的集中度及其记忆效应（谷继成等,1985）。在地震预测实际工作中发现,某些小区域小地震活动与周围中强以上地震活动有一定程度的相关性,即所谓的“地震窗”。将“地震窗”与地震活动度S相结合,研究地震窗内S值异常变化与整个研究区中强地震的对应关系,可以有效开展震情跟踪工作,为震情研判提供参考。本文通过计算吴忠地震窗（下文简称吴忠窗）内小震活动度S,分析宁夏及邻区5级以上地震前S值的变化,探讨窗内S值异常与地震的对应关系。     

运用S方法预测中等地震及小震震群活动性的研究

运用S方法处理流动地磁测量资料，与小震震群地震活动频次对比分析，结果表明流磁测线S值出现异常，一年内小震震群地震活动频次增高；反之，S值较小，则地震活动频次较低；流磁测线S值出现异常，其邻近地区可能发生MS4级左右地震。此方法在少震地区地震的中短期预测中有一定的实用意义。     

冀豫环流动磁测异常与中等地震关系研究

利用冀豫环流动地磁观测资料,绘制单点时序变化曲线,采用常规差值法,计算相邻两期的差值,绘制整个测区的平面等值线;分析研究1998年以来测区周围发生的中等地震与流动地磁数据变化的关系。结果显示,冀豫环流磁异常与邻区的中等地震有一定的对应关系,震前有两个或多个测点同时出现异常,而且异常特征表现为上升正异常。     

“霍山震情窗”动力学背景及预测意义分析

安徽“霍山震情窗”作为华东地区的应力敏感部位,能够以微震、小震活动的形式反映区域应力场的变化。本文基于应变能释放方法对“霍山震情窗”的动力学背景进行了研究,结果表明该震情窗易受青藏块体强震活动的影响,从而出现开窗异常,其异常变幅相对较大;此外,震情窗所处区域应力场的波动变化也会导致开窗异常,其异常变幅则相对较小。上述2 种动力学背景的开窗异常对华东地区中强地震均具有较好的预测意义。此外,在实际应用中应关注多种动力学背景的共同影响可能导致的开窗异常。     

利用地磁低点位移预测发震时间

四川及邻区是未来大震的重点监测地区，为了震情监视分析与预测，对四川地区出现的地磁“低点位移”与四川及邻区的中强地震对应进行了系统研究，认为地磁“低点位移”现象是客观存在的，“低点位移”作为一种地磁异常现象，与地震发生有较好的相关性。     

新疆喀什及邻近区域流动地磁和流动重力联合分析研究

利用2014-2015年南天山地区45个测点的2期流动地磁资料,分析喀什及邻近区域相邻两期岩石圈磁场的动态变化特征,同时,利用2014-2016年170个测点的4期流动重力资料,分析不同时间尺度的重力场动态变化信息。研究表明:皮山6.5级地震的发生对皮山一带的地磁矢量分布特征影响较大,总磁场强度、磁偏角和磁倾角均有变化;无论是半年尺度还是一年尺度的重力变化图像都显示乌恰一直处于重力变化的高梯度带;综合多手段的观测资料对震情形势的判定更为准确。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

Dissolved Carbohydrate Concentration,Composition, and Bioavailability to Microbial Heterotrophs in Stream Water

Dissolved total carbohydrates (DTCH), dissolved free monosaccharides (DFMS), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), biodegradable DOC (BDOC), and humic substances (HS) were measured in White Clay Creek (WCC), a stream in southeastern Pennsylvania Piedmont, USA. Samples were collected over different seasons and under baseflow and stormflow conditions. DOC concentrations ranged from 1.0 to 12.8 mg/L C with the highest concentrations associated with stormflows. Carbohydrates ranged from 0.42 to 12.4 μM and accounted for 2.9 to 12.7% of the DOC. Humic substances represented the major DOC fraction, accounting for 55 to 72% of the DOC pool under all flow conditions. The humic fraction had a lower carbohydrate content (4.4%) than the non-humic fraction of DOC (7.2%). Stormflow DOC was enriched in carbohydrates relative to baseflow DOC, but the percentage of humic-C changed little. Carbohydrates were primarily present as dissolved polysaccharides (55%), but a significant fraction was bound to humic substances (40%), while a small proportion was present as monosaccharides (5%). The major monosaccharides in stream water, listed in order of decreasing concentration, included glucose, galactose, rhamnose, xylose, arabinose, mannose, and fucose. On average (30.6 ± 7.4)% (n = 44) of the stream water DOC was biodegradable, and carbohydrates accounted for 9.9 to 17.7% of the BDOC.