Avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas

An innovative methodology to perform avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas is herewith presented and discussed. The method combines GIS tools, computational routines, and statistical analysis in order to provide a “semi-automatic” definition of areas potentially affected by avalanche release and motion. The method includes two main modules. The first module is used to define zones of potential avalanche release, based on the consolidated relations on slope, morphology, and vegetation. For each of the identified zones of potential release, a second module, named Avalanche Flow and Run-out Algorithm (AFRA), provides an automatic definition of the areas potentially affected by avalanche motion and run-out. The definition is generated by a specifically implemented “flow-routing algorithm” which allows for the determination of flow behaviour in the track and in the run-out zone. In order to estimate the avalanche outline in the run-out zone, AFRA uses a “run-out cone”, which is a 3D projection of the angle of reach α. The α-value is evaluated by statistical analysis of historical data regarding extreme avalanches. Pre- and post-processing of the AFRA input/output data is done in an open source GIS environment (GRASS GIS). The method requires only a digital terrain model and an indication of the areas covered by forest as input parameters. The procedure, which allows rapid mapping of large areas, does not in principle require any site-specific historical information. Furthermore, it has proven to be effective in all cases where a preliminary cost-efficient analysis of the territories potentially affected by snow avalanche was needed.     

滑坡灾害预测分区的计算机制图

本文在滑坡灾害预测分区的信息模型基础上,重点讨论了灾害预测的计算机制图化的主要过程:因素的数值化,单元边界的确定和彩色图件的绘制。运用中国地质大学计算机系开发的Mapcad系统,在Mv/10000计算机上较好地处理了不规则图幅边界的自然裁剪,不规则单元的输入,以及彩色图件的绘制等问题。     

Use of microtremor in liquefaction hazard mapping

This study shows how microtremor measurements can be used as an aid to liquefaction hazard mapping and zonation, as demonstrated in Laoag City, Northern Philippines. From microtremor measurements, qualitative information on subsoil conditions was obtained and a site classification map was generated. The map was combined with the geomorphology-based liquefaction susceptibility map to produce an integrated liquefaction hazard zonation map. This integrated map is deemed to be more accurate in depicting relative liquefaction susceptibility since it combines information on the distribution of potentially liquefiable soils in terms of geology and grain characteristics with information on the stiffness and thickness of these soils. With information about the thickness of the deposits, an idea of the severity of liquefaction-related damage can also be gathered since thicker deposits relate to more serious damage. Plots of historical liquefaction cases, as well as borehole data and resistivity profiles in the study area, support the validity of the integrated map. The use of microtremor, therefore, constitutes an effective and inexpensive approach to liquefaction hazard zonation, and as such is very useful in less-developed countries like the Philippines and other areas where funds for more rigorous investigations are not always available.     

Application of geomorphologic knowledge for erosion hazard mapping

An erosion hazard map was elaborated using geomorphologic and lithological information; this was the base to characterize the erodibility of the territory. The aim of the proposed methodology is to define the areas where more detailed studies are necessary (e.g., to estimate rates of soil erosion, mitigation measurements, land use) to prevent future problems. Field work and remote sensing data (study of historical aerial photographs and satellite images) were used to understand the geomorphologic evolution and the current processes taking place in an area; this information was used to group the units according to its lithology, dynamic and slope inclination. The map was processed using the geographical information system and categorized in zones of very high, high, moderate, low and null fluvial erosion hazards. The map covers the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, which is experiencing serious problems of mass wasting processes, collapse and settlements of foundations. Most affected areas belong to the Tierra Blanca Joven tephras which are unsaturated and cover most of the surface; nowadays, the urban projects and infrastructure resting in this material are suffering from extensive damage. The geotechnical information on the tephras shows a decrease in strength and collapsible behavior when saturated. Due to this, the use of Quickdraw tensiometers (suction) and TMS3 (soil moisture content) is proposed for monitoring. The methodology of erosion hazard mapping correlates well with mass wasting reported in the studied area, and for this reason, it could be a good way to protect the natural resources and improve the land use.     

Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....     

Landslide hazard evaluation and zonation mapping in mountainous terrain

Landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) maps are of great help to planners and field engineers for selecting suitable locations to implement development schemes in mountainous terrain, as well as, for adopting appropriate mitigation measures in unstable hazard-prone areas. A new quantitative approach has been evolved, based on major causative factors of slope instability. A case study of landslide hazard zonation in the Himalaya, adopting a landslide- hazard evaluation factor (LHEF) rating scheme, has been presented.     

Coastal hazard mapping in the Cuddalore region, South India

It is estimated that nearly one-third of India’s population lives on the coast and is dependent on its resources. Shoreline erosion, storm surges and extreme events have resulted in severe loss of human life, damage to ecosystems and to property along the coast of India. Studies carried out in the Cuddalore region of South India reveal that this low-lying coastal zone, which suffered significant erosion during the last century, has been severely affected by the tsunami of 2004, storm floods and cyclones. In response to these impacts, a variety of coastal defense measures and adaptation strategies have been implemented in the region, although with only limited success. In order to inform future coastal planning in this region, the work reported here identifies a composite hazard line, seaward of which coastal flooding events will have a return interval of less than 1 in 100 years. The area landward of the coastal hazard line will be unaffected by 100 years of coastal erosion at present day rates. The study directly supports the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan of the Tamil Nadu State through the identification and assessment of coastal hazards and the overall vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion. The key results from this pilot study will be used directly by the State of Tamil Nadu in the protection of the coastal livelihoods, better conservation measures and sustainable development along the coast. This study is a step toward mapping the hazard line for the entire coast of India that helps protect human lives and property.     

Juggling through Ghanaian urbanisation: flood hazard mapping of Kumasi

More recently, driven by rapid and unguided urbanisation and climate change, Ghanaian cities are increasingly becoming hotspots for severe flood-related events. This paper reviews urbanisation dynamics in Ghanaian cities, and maps flood hazard zones and access to flood relief services in Kumasi, drawing insight from multi-criteria analysis and spatial network analysis using ArcGIS 10.2. Findings indicate that flood hazard zones in Kumasi have been created by natural (e.g., climate change) and anthropogenic (e.g., urbanisation) factors, and the interaction thereof. While one would have expected the natural factors to guide, direct and steer the patterns of urban development from flood hazard zones, the GIS analysis shows that anthropogenic factors, particularly urbanisation, are increasingly concentrating population and physical structures in areas liable to flooding in the urban environment. This situation is compounded by rapid land cover/use changes and widespread haphazard development across the city. Regrettably, findings show that urban residents living in flood hazard zones in Kumasi are also geographically disadvantaged in terms of access to emergency services compared to those living in well-planned neighbourhoods.     

First-level liquefaction hazard mapping of Laoag City,Northern Philippines

During the 1990 Luzon earthquake (M_s 7.8), the central part of Luzon Island, Philippines suffered much from liquefaction-related processes. Examination of inventories shows that the affected areas lie on certain geological environments that are characteristically vulnerable to liquefaction. Based on this local experience and the findings of earlier workers correlating geological setting with liquefaction susceptibility, a first-level map of liquefaction hazard for Laoag City, Northern Philippines, was produced. Distinct micro-geomorphological units were identified within the mainly fluvio-deltaic setting of the study area. The liquefaction susceptibility of each unit was then ranked as high, moderate, low or non-liquefiable, taking also the geomorphological evolution of the area into account. The geomorphological model of the fluvio-deltaic basin was tested against the results of the georesistivity survey carried out in this study. Moreover, compatibility of the liquefaction susceptibility map with historical liquefaction records supported the validity of the proposed ranking. The study showed that microzonation based on geomorphological criteria is indeed very useful in less-developed countries like the Philippines, where funds for a more rigorous determination of liquefaction potential are limited and not always available.     

Natural hazard chain research in China: A review

Most catastrophic disasters are triggered by multi-hazards that occur simultaneously or sequentially rather than singly; this can result in more severe consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the occurrence, development, and transformation of hazard chains and comprehend their rules in order to predict secondary hazards. An effective action for reducing potential losses can be taken to block a hazard chain before it expands and transforms. Many studies have been conducted on hazard chains, some of which are of great significance. This article is a comprehensive literature review on hazard chains. First, an introduction to the definition, classification, and recognition of hazard chains is given. Then, some typical researches on mechanical studies of geological hazard chains, meteorological hazard, chains and geological–meteorological hazard chains are presented. On the basis of case studies on hazard chains, the following comprehensive methodologies are summarized: (1) engineering geology methodology, (2) integrated geographical assessment methodology, (3) system dynamics methodology, and (4) methodology of disaster physics. Reconstruction as a part of the disaster process is also reviewed. However, the research presented is still in the beginning stage; neither the mechanics nor the methodology is finalized. Research on hazard chains still has a long way to go.     

A time-space based approach for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time.     

Liquefaction hazard mapping at the town of Edessa,Northern Greece

The town of Edessa is located on Northern Greece at a region that is characterized as low seismicity zone due to the fact that few moderate events of M < 6 occurred during the last century. According to the Greek Seismic Code, the expected acceleration having a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years is equal to 0.16g. However, an amplification of ground motion is likely to occur due the local geology that is consisted of Holocene fluvio-torrential deposits. The basic aim of this paper is to evaluate the site amplification due to geological conditions and to assess the liquefaction hazard. In order to achieve this, 1-D site response analyses were performed. The data that were employed for the construction of the numerical models have been collected from borings with standard penetrations tests (SPT) that were drilled for construction purposes. Afterward, the liquefaction potential of the subsoil layers was evaluated taking into consideration two seismic scenarios. The first scenario was based on the seismic parameters, earthquake magnitude and PGA, assigned by the Greek Seismic Code. On the second seismic model, we employed the values of acceleration, resulted from the 1-D analyses and the earthquake magnitude as it was defined by the Greek Seismic Code. In order to compile the liquefaction hazard maps, we initially estimated the liquefaction potential index (LPI) of the soil columns using the parameters provided by SPT, for both seismic loadings, and afterward we correlated these values with the proposed classification of the severity of liquefaction-induced deformations. In addition, having computed the value of probability based on the LPI, liquefaction manifestations probability maps were compiled for both scenarios. The result of this study was that liquefaction-induced ground disruptions are likely to occur at the center of the city, among the branches of Voda River, only when the amplified values of acceleration are taken into account to the computation of liquefaction potential.     

Numerical simulation of debris flow with application on hazard area mapping

A numerical program developed for field application is presented in this paper. We use the generalized Julien and Lan [8] rheological model to simulate debris flows. Due to the derivative discontinuous nature of the constitutive law, flow is separated into plug region and bottom region (with stress greater than yield stress). The program solves the plug flow layer solution first, and then corrects the solution with the bottom layer approximation. Numerical scheme with upwind method and central difference in space and Adam–Bashforth third-order scheme in time is used for both layers. The scheme is tested against analytical solutions and laboratory experiments with very good results. Application to a field case with more complicated geometry also achieves good agreement, with error less than 5% compared to field measurements. The final example demonstrates how this numerical program is used in a preliminary design.     

Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard mapping at national-scale in Australia using deep learning techniques

Australia is a relatively stable continental region but not tectonically inert, having geological conditions that are susceptible to liquefaction when subjected to earthquake ground motion. Liquefaction hazard assessment for Australia was conducted because no Australian liquefaction maps that are based on modern AI techniques are currently available. In this study, several conditioning factors including Shear wave velocity (Vs30), clay content, soil water content, soil bulk density, soil thickness, soil pH, distance from river, slope and elevation were considered to estimate the liquefaction potential index (LPI). By considering the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) technique, peak ground acceleration (PGA) was derived for 50 yrs period (500 and 2500 yrs return period) in Australia. Firstly, liquefaction hazard index (LHI) (effects based on the size and depth of the liquefiable areas) was estimated by considering the LPI along with the 2% and 10% exceedance probability of earthquake hazard. Secondly, ground acceleration data from the Geoscience Australia projecting 2% and 10% exceedance rate of PGA for 50 yrs were used in this study to produce earthquake induced soil liquefaction hazard maps. Thirdly, deep neural networks (DNNs) were also exerted to estimate liquefaction hazard that can be reported as liquefaction hazard base maps for Australia with an accuracy of 94% and 93%, respectively. As per the results, very-high liquefaction hazard can be observed in Western and Southern Australia including some parts of Victoria. This research is the first ever country-scale study to be considered for soil liquefaction hazard in Australia using geospatial information in association with PSHA and deep learning techniques. This study used an earthquake design magnitude threshold of M_w 6 using the source model characterization. The resulting maps present the earthquake-triggered liquefaction hazard and are intending to establish a conceptual structure to guide more detailed investigations as may be required in the future. The limitations of deep learning models are complex and require huge data, knowledge on topology, parameters, and training method whereas PSHA follows few assumptions. The advantages deal with the reusability of model codes and its transferability to other similar study areas. This research aims to support stakeholders’ on decision making for infrastructure investment, emergency planning and prioritisation of post-earthquake reconstruction projects.     

Landslide hazard mapping using logistic regression model in Mackenzie Valley,Canada

A logistic regression model is developed within the framework of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map landslide hazards in a mountainous environment. A case study is conducted in the mountainous southern Mackenzie Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada. To determine the factors influencing landslides, data layers of geology, surface materials, land cover, and topography were analyzed by logistic regression analysis, and the results are used for landslide hazard mapping. In this study, bedrock, surface materials, slope, and difference between surface aspect and dip direction of the sedimentary rock were found to be the most important factors affecting landslide occurrence. The influence on landslides by interactions among geologic and geomorphic conditions is also analyzed, and used to develop a logistic regression model for landslide hazard mapping. The comparison of the results from the model including the interaction terms and the model not including the interaction terms indicate that interactions among the variables were found to be significant for predicting future landslide probability and locating high hazard areas. The results from this study demonstrate that the use of a logistic regression model within a GIS framework is useful and suitable for landslide hazard mapping in large mountainous geographic areas such as the southern Mackenzie Valley.     

Municipal flood hazard mapping: the case of British Columbia,Canada

Historical responses to flood hazards have stimulated development in hazardous areas. Scholars recommend an alternative approach to reducing flood losses that combines flood hazard mapping with land use planning to identify and direct development away from flood-prone areas. Creating flood hazard maps to inform municipal land use planning is an expensive and complex process that can require resources not always available at the municipal government level. Senior levels of government in some countries have addressed deficiencies in municipal capacity by assuming an active role in producing municipal flood hazard maps. In other countries, however, senior governments do not contribute to municipal flood hazard mapping. Despite a large body of research on the importance of municipal land use planning for addressing flood hazards, little is known about the extent of flood hazard information that is available to municipalities that do not receive outside assistance from senior governments for flood hazard mapping. We assess the status of flood hazard maps in British Columbia, where municipalities do not receive outside assistance in creating the maps. Our analysis shows that these maps are generally outdated and/or lacking a variety of features that are critical for supporting effective land use planning. We recommend that senior levels of government play an active role in providing municipalities with (1) detailed and current information regarding flood hazards in their jurisdiction and (2) compelling incentives to utilize this information.     

Landform effect on rockfall and hazard mapping in Cappadocia (Turkey)

The Cappadocia region has unique geomorphological features resulting from differential erosional processes which make it very attractive to tourists. Besides the fairy chimneys for which the area is best known, there are also impressive buttes and mesas. Buttes and mesas are formed in regions having flat-lying strata in which the uppermost levels are composed of well-cemented limestones and granular ignimbrites, whereas the lower parts and slopes consist of low-durability tuff and ignimbrites. This durability difference results in serious rockfall events. This study involves two-dimensional rockfall analyses in and near the Avanos, Zelve, and Çavusini areas, where volcano-sedimentary units of Neogene age outcrop, to provide a rockfall hazard map in which areas of tourism activity are also considered.