Relationships between debris flows and earth surface factors in Southwest China

Southwest China, including the Provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing, is a region with serious debris flow hazards, where 7,561 debris flow sites have been identified. Based on the data from these sites, the distribution regularity of debris flows was analyzed. Earth surface factors that may influence the formation of debris flows were analyzed from the viewpoints of energy and material conditions. Four major earth surface factors were selected: relative relief, stratigraphy, fault density and land-use conditions. With the support of GIS, the research region was divided into 125,177 grid cells and for each cell data for the four factors were collected. Based on this information, the distribution of quantity and the occurrence probability of debris flows and the role of each factor were statistically analyzed. The results should be helpful for the assessment of debris flow hazards and debris flow forecasting in the research region.     

Neural network modeling for regional hazard assessment of debris flow in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

This paper presents a neural network (NN) based model to assess the regional hazard degree of debris flows in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The NN model was used as an alternative for the more conventional linear model MFCAM (multi-factor composite assessment model) in order to effectively handle the nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in the debris flow hazard analysis. The NN model was configured using a three layer structure with eight input nodes and one output node, and the number of nodes in the hidden layer was determined through an iterative process of varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer until an optimal performance was achieved. The eight variables used to represent the eight input nodes include density of debris flow gully, degree of weathering of rocks, active fault density, area percentage of slope land greater than 25° of the total land (APL25), frequency of flooding hazards, average covariance of monthly precipitation by 10 years (ACMP10), average days with rainfall >25 mm by 10 years (25D10Y), and percentage of cultivated land with slope land greater than 25° of the total cultivated land (PCL25). The output node represents the hazard-degree ranks (HDR). The model was trained with the 35 sets of data obtained from previous researches reported in literatures, and an explicit uncertainty analysis was undertaken to address the uncertainty in model training and prediction. Before the NN model is extrapolated to Lake Qionghai Watershed, a validation case, different from the above data, is conducted. In addition, the performances of the NN model and the MFCAM were compared. The NN model predicted that the HDRs of the five sub-watersheds in the Lake Qionghai Watershed were IV, IV, III, III, and IV–V, indicating that the study area covers normal hazard and severe hazard areas. Based on the NN model results, debris flow management and economic development strategies in the study are proposed for each sub-watershed.     

辽宁鞍山市岫岩县泥石流区域危险性评价

本文以岫岩县作为研究区域,以自然流域作为评价单元格,采用人工神经网络对该区泥石流的区域危险性进行评价.结果显示,三级以上危险区囊括了99%的泥石流灾害点,评价结果符合实际情况.以流域作为评价单元充分体现了泥石流发生的空间特征和物理机制,危险性区划图直观明了,可为防灾减灾规划提供科学依据.     

Empirical modelling of the May 1998 small debris flows in Sarno (Italy) using LAHARZ

The catastrophic events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno (Southern Italy) highlight the destructive potential of debris flows, even when they are of relatively low magnitude. More than 130 people were killed and severe property damage took place when volcaniclastic debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall inundated various towns located in piedmont areas. This work investigates the suitability of LAHARZ, a GIS-assisted method for the automatic delineation of lahar inundation areas, for reproducing the May 1998 flows at Sarno. It was found that recalibration of the empirical relationship employed by LAHARZ is required in order to realistically hind-cast the inundation areas of considered events. The potential for further improvements in prediction outputs for this type of geomorphic setting is discussed, taking into account the observed lower mobility of these small volcaniclastic debris flows as compared to lahars of similar size.     

A procedure for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia

Existing methods of evaluating the hazard posed by moraine-dammed lakes are unsystematic, subjective, and depend on the expertise and biases of the geoscientist. In this paper, we provide a framework for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard in southwestern British Columbia. Our procedure relies on remote sensing methods and requires only limited knowledge of glacial processes so that evaluations of outburst flood hazard can be incorporated into routine hazard assessments of glaciated regions. We describe objective approaches, which incorporate existing empirical relations applicable to the study region, for estimating outburst peak discharge, maximum volume, maximum travel distance, maximum area of inundation, and probability. Outburst flood hazard is greatest for moderately large lakes that are impounded by large, narrow, ice-free moraine dams composed of sedimentary rock debris and drain into steep, sediment-filled gullies above major river valleys. We demonstrate the application of the procedure using three case studies and show that flood hazard varies, especially with major changes in lake level. Our assessment scheme yields reproducible results and enables engineers and geoscientists to prioritize potentially hazardous lakes for more detailed field investigation.     

A GIS-based methodology for hazard mapping of small volume pyroclastic density currents

We present here a methodology implemented within a geographical information system (GIS) for hazard mapping of small volume pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). This technique is implemented as a set of macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) that run within GIS-software (i.e. ArcGIS). Based on the energy line concept, we calibrated an equation that relates the volume (V) and the mobility (ΔH/L) of single PDCs using data from Soufrière Hills volcano (Montserrat) and Arenal volcano (Costa Rica). Maximum potential run-outs can be predicted with an associated uncertainty of about 30%. Also based on the energy line concept and with data from Soufrière Hills volcano and Mt. St. Helens (USA), we were able to calibrate an equation that predicts the flow velocity as a function of the vertical distance between the energy line and the ground surface (Δh). Velocities derived in this way have an associated uncertainty of 3 m s⁻¹. We wrote code to implement these equations and allow the automatic mapping of run-out and velocity with the inputs being (i) the height and location of the vent (ii) the flow volume and (iii) a digital elevation model (DEM) of the volcano. Dynamic pressure can also be estimated and mapped by incorporating the density of the pyroclastic density current (PDC). This computer application allows the incorporation of uncertainties in the location of the vent and of statistical uncertainties expressed by the 95% confidence limits of the regression model. We were able to verify predictions by the proposed methodology with data from Unzen volcano (Japan) and Mayon volcano (The Philippines). The consistencies observed highlight the applicability of this approach for hazard mitigation and real-time emergency management.     

Numerical simulation of debris flow with application on hazard area mapping

A numerical program developed for field application is presented in this paper. We use the generalized Julien and Lan [8] rheological model to simulate debris flows. Due to the derivative discontinuous nature of the constitutive law, flow is separated into plug region and bottom region (with stress greater than yield stress). The program solves the plug flow layer solution first, and then corrects the solution with the bottom layer approximation. Numerical scheme with upwind method and central difference in space and Adam–Bashforth third-order scheme in time is used for both layers. The scheme is tested against analytical solutions and laboratory experiments with very good results. Application to a field case with more complicated geometry also achieves good agreement, with error less than 5% compared to field measurements. The final example demonstrates how this numerical program is used in a preliminary design.     

云南陇川县"2004-07-05"特大滑坡泥石流灾害及防治对策

云南德宏州陇川县2004年7月5目发生了近100a一遇的特大滑坡泥石流灾害。这次灾害点多、面广,波及到全县11个乡镇,并且灾害几乎同时发生。因灾死亡13人,4人失踪,直接经济损失约2亿元,其灾害的严重性可见一斑。因灾区地处滇西横断山地,岭谷相间,地形高差、山坡坡度及河、沟谷比降都比较大;地质条件复杂,出露岩层为易风化的花岗岩及片麻岩,雨季5-10月降水丰沛而集中,这些对滑坡泥石流的发育极为有利：不合理的人类经济活动(如陡坡耕作、挖方填方式的公路建设等)则加剧了滑坡泥石流灾害的发生。加之7月5目区域性暴雨及局部特大暴雨的激发,最终引发了此次灾害。暴雨是陇川县07-05灾害最直接也是最根本的原因。通过对这次灾害的实地考察,在掌握本区的社会经济条件和自然属性前提下,总结了此次灾害的特点。此次灾害具有如下几个方面的特点：灾种多样,灾害的链武特征明显;滑坡多表现为高位、高势能、高速特征,而泥石流多发生在沟口;滑坡泥石流规模小,但点多面广：漂木流危害严重。在明确陇川县07-05灾害特点和成因的前提下,提出了有针对性的近期、中远期防灾、减灾对策。     

Recognition of debris flow,debris flood and flood hazard through watershed morphometrics

Debris flows, debris floods and floods in mountainous areas are responsible for loss of life and damage to infrastructure, making it important to recognize these hazards in the early stage of planning land developments. Detailed terrain information is seldom available and basic watershed morphometrics must be used for hazard identification. An existing model uses watershed area and relief (the Melton ratio) to differentiate watersheds prone to flooding from those subject to debris flows and debris floods. However, the hazards related to debris flows and debris floods are not the same, requiring further differentiation. Here, we demonstrate that a model using watershed length combined with the Melton ratio can be used to differentiate debris-flow and debris-flood prone watersheds. This model was tested on 65 alluvial and colluvial fans in west central British Columbia, Canada, that were examined in the field. The model correctly identified 92% of the debris-flow, 83% of the debris-flood, and 88% of the flood watersheds. With adaptation for different regional conditions, the use of basic watershed morphometrics could assist land managers, scientists, and engineers with the identification of hydrogeomorphic hazards on fans elsewhere.     

Fire-related hyperconcentrated and debris flows on Storm King Mountain, Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA

 The South Canyon Fire of July 1994 burned 800 ha of vegetation on Storm King Mountain near Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA. On the night of 1 September 1994, in response to torrential rains, debris flows inundated seven areas along a 5-km length of Interstate Highway 70. Mapping from aerial photographs, along with field observations and measurements, shows that the September rainstorm eroded unconsolidated, burned surficial soil from the hillsides, flushed dry-ravel deposits from the tributary channels, and transported loose, large material from the main channels. The hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows inundated 14 ha of Interstate Highway 70 with 70 000 m³ of material. Although the burned area was seeded in November 1994, the potential for continuing debris-flow activity remains. Incision and entrainment of channel alluvium, as well as erosion of loose material from the hillslopes could result in future debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity. Received: 15 October 1996 / Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Landslide and debris-flow hazard analysis and prediction using GIS in Minamata–Hougawachi area, Japan

On July 20, 2003, following a short duration of heavy rainfall, a debris-flow disaster occurred in the Minamata–Hougawachi area, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. This disaster was triggered by a landslide. In order to assess the landslide and debris-flow hazard potential of this mountainous region, the study of historic landslides is critical. The objective of the study is to couple 3D slope-stability analysis models and 2D numerical simulation of debris flow within a geographical information systems in order to identity the potential landslide-hazard area. Based on field observations, the failure mechanism of the past landslide is analyzed and the mechanical parameters for 3D slope-stability analysis are calculated from the historic landslide. Then, to locate potential new landslides, the studied area is divided into slope units. Based on 3D slope-stability analysis models and on Monte Carlo simulation, the spots of potential landslides are identified. Finally, we propose a depth-averaged 2D numerical model, in which the debris and water mixture is assumed to be a uniform continuous, incompressible, unsteady Newtonian fluid. The method accurately models the historic debris flow. According to the 2D numerical simulation, the results of the debris-flow model, including the potentially inundated areas, are analyzed, and potentially affected houses, river and road are mapped.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

Vulnerability assessment of rainfall-induced debris flows in Taiwan

A GIS-based decision support system, which incorporates local topographic and rainfall effects on debris flow vulnerability is developed. Rainfall at a scale compatible with the digital elevation model resolution is obtained using a neural network with a wind-induced topographic effect and rainfall derived from satellite rain estimates and an adaptive inverse distance weight method (WTNN). The technique is tested using data collected during the passage of typhoon Tori-Ji on July 2001 over central Taiwan. Numerous debris flows triggered by the typhoon were used as control for the study. Our results show that the WTNN technique outperforms other interpolation techniques including adaptive inversed distance weight (AIDW), simple kriging (SK), co-kriging, and multiple linear regression using gauge, and topographic parameters. Multiple remotely-sensed, fuzzy-based debris-flow susceptibility parameters are used to describe the characteristics of watersheds. Non-linear, multi-variant regressions using the WTNN derived rainfall and topography factors are derived using self-organizing maps (SOM) for the debris flow vulnerability assessment. An index of vulnerability representing the degrees of hazard is implemented in a GIS-based decision support system by which a decision maker can assess debris flow vulnerability.     

The formation and failure of debris flow-dams,background, key factors and model tests: case studies from China

Temporary dams can be formed by the sudden injection of debris flow into main streams by some favorable geomorphologic and hydraulic conditions, resulting in extensive inundations upstream and catastrophic floods downstream due to dam breaches and consequently dramatic changes of channels and valleys. Expeditious means of assessing dam-forming potential are necessary, particularly in geologically active regions. Complete blockages or dam formations are significantly related to the discharge ratio and velocity ratio between the tributary and the main stream, the bulk density of the debris flow, confluent angles and the degree of unevenness of grain sizes. In order to set up a critical index/C for dam formation, 19 groups of flume tests were conducted. The results showed that there were three types of blockage in the intersections, and dam-forming processes were mainly controlled by the product of the dimensionless momentum ratio and the degree of unevenness of grain sizes in the debris flow. Complete blockages or dam formations occurred when C > 83.4, whereas semi-blockages were formed or no dams were formed when C < 71.5, which had been judged to be feasible by historical instances of dam formation in China. Dam failures commonly resulted from overtopping. No piping was observed in the course of dam failure, and the time elapsed between dams can be denoted by a linear relation with the momentum ratio.     

基于HBP本构模型的泥石流动力过程SPH数值模拟

泥石流断面内流速垂向分布是研究其流量、冲击力和沟床侵蚀过程的关键。然而,受限于测量装置布设条件,泥石流现场实测及水槽试验中常用的分层流速仪等设备仅能采集断面内少量样本点的流速数据,导致基于实测结果拟合回归的线性分布模型难以准确描述泥石流速度分布规律。对此,本文依托大比例尺泥石流水槽试验开展研究,利用所构建的基于HBP本构的光滑粒子流体动力学(SPH)数值模型反演泥石流三维动力过程,通过分层统计算法对大量粒子速度数据进行分析处理,获得了断面内速度垂向分布规律,并据此提出了基于对数函数的泥石流流速垂向非线性分布模型。为验证所提出模型的准确性,利用其他多组水槽试验数据进行了对比分析,结果表明,本文提出的对数分布模型比传统线性分布模型能够更准确地拟合速度剖面,并在模型参数敏感性方面具有更强鲁棒性。     

First-level liquefaction hazard mapping of Laoag City,Northern Philippines

During the 1990 Luzon earthquake (M_s 7.8), the central part of Luzon Island, Philippines suffered much from liquefaction-related processes. Examination of inventories shows that the affected areas lie on certain geological environments that are characteristically vulnerable to liquefaction. Based on this local experience and the findings of earlier workers correlating geological setting with liquefaction susceptibility, a first-level map of liquefaction hazard for Laoag City, Northern Philippines, was produced. Distinct micro-geomorphological units were identified within the mainly fluvio-deltaic setting of the study area. The liquefaction susceptibility of each unit was then ranked as high, moderate, low or non-liquefiable, taking also the geomorphological evolution of the area into account. The geomorphological model of the fluvio-deltaic basin was tested against the results of the georesistivity survey carried out in this study. Moreover, compatibility of the liquefaction susceptibility map with historical liquefaction records supported the validity of the proposed ranking. The study showed that microzonation based on geomorphological criteria is indeed very useful in less-developed countries like the Philippines, where funds for a more rigorous determination of liquefaction potential are limited and not always available.     

Influence of transboundary air pollution on air quality in southwestern China

Air pollution is a grand challenge of our time due to its multitude of adverse impacts on environment and society,with the scale of impacts more severe in developing countries,including China.Thus,China has initiated and implemented strict air pollution control measures over last several years to reduce impacts of air pollution.Monitoring data from Jan 2015 to Dec 2019 on six criteria air pollutants(SO2,NO2,CO,O3,PM2.5,and PM1o)at eight sites in southwestern China were investigated to understand the situation and analyze the impacts of transboundary air pollutants in this region.In terms of seasonal variation,the maximum concentrations of air pollutants at these sites were observed in winter or spring season depending on individual site.For diurnal variation,surface ozone peaked in the afternoon while the other pollutants had a bimodal pattern with peaks in the morning and late afternoon.There was limited trans-port of domestic emissions of air pollutants in China to these sites.Local emissions enhanced the concen-trations of air pollutants during some pollution events.Mostly,the transboundary transport of air pollution from South Asia and Southeast Asia was associated with high concentrations of most air pollu-tants observed in southwestern China.Since air pollutants can be transported to southwestern China over long distances from the source regions,it is necessary to conduct more research to properly attribute and quantify transboundary transport of air pollutants,which will provide more solid scientific guidance for air pollution management in southwestern China.     

塔里木盆地西南坳陷发现晚新生代伸展构造

通过认真、系统的地震资料解释, 我们在塔里木盆地西南坳陷首次发现晚新生代正断层。 这些正断层发育于西南坳陷的东北部, 走向 NE-SW, 剖面上组合成堑垒构造, 个别剖面上显示负花状构造特征。 正断层主要发育于新生界, 向上断至的最高层位是第四系更新统下部。 倾向相反的正断层向下交汇后断距消失, 断层继续向下延伸的情况不清楚。 根据断距 变化和生长指数计算, 正断层形成于上新世晚期, 持续演化至更新世早期。 正断层的形成演化过程与以往在阿瓦提凹陷、巴楚隆起和塘沽孜巴斯坳陷发现的晚新生代正断层基本一致, 正断层活动时间为 ca. 3～2 Ma。 它们形成于一个区域性弱伸展构造应力场, 代表印度-亚洲碰撞远程效应下, 塔里木盆地脉式挤压冲断过程中的一个构造间歇期。     

Passage of debris flows and turbidity currents through a topographic constriction: seafloor erosion and deflection of flow pathways

Some of the Earth's largest submarine debris flows are found on the NW African margin. These debris flows are highly efficient, spreading hundreds of cubic kilometres of sediment over a wide area of the continental rise where slopes angles are often <1°. However, the processes by which these debris flows achieve such long run‐outs, affecting tens of thousands of square kilometres of seafloor, are poorly understood. The Saharan debris flow has a run‐out of ≈700 km, making it one of the longest debris flows on Earth. For its distal 450 km, it is underlain by a relatively thin and highly sheared basal volcaniclastic layer, which may have provided the low‐friction conditions that enabled its extraordinarily long run‐out. Between El Hierro Island and the Hijas Seamount on the continental rise, an ≈25‐ to 40‐km‐wide topographic gap is present, through which the Saharan debris flow and turbidites from the continental margin and flanks of the Canary Islands passed. Recently, the first deep‐towed sonar images have been obtained, showing dramatic erosional and depositional processes operating within this topographic `gap' or `constriction'. These images show evidence for the passage of the Saharan debris flow and highly erosive turbidity currents, including the largest comet marks reported from the deep ocean. Sonar data and a seismic reflection profile obtained 70 km to the east, upslope of the topographic `gap', indicate that seafloor sediments to a depth of ≈30 m have been eroded by the Saharan debris flow to form the basal volcaniclastic layer. Within the topographic `gap', the Saharan debris flow appears to have been deflected by a low (≈20 m) topographic ridge, whereas turbidity currents predating the debris flow appear to have overtopped the ridge. This evidence suggests that, as turbidity currents passed into the topographic constriction, they experienced flow acceleration and, as a result, became highly erosive. Such observations have implications for the mechanics of long run‐out debris flows and turbidity currents elsewhere in the deep sea, in particular how such large‐scale flows erode the substrate and interact with seafloor topography.     

Velocity and runout simulation of destructive debris flows and debris avalanches in pyroclastic deposits,Campania region,Italy

The Campanian Apennines are characterized by the presence of monocline ridges, mainly formed by limestone. During the periods of volcanic activity of the Somma-Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields, the ridges were mantled with pyroclastic materials in varying thickness. The pyroclastics have been involved in destructive landslides both in historical time and in the recent past (1997, 1998, 1999). The landslides occur following intense and prolonged rainfalls. In some cases, landslides extended up to 4 km into the surrounding lowlands and reached towns, causing severe destruction and over 200 deaths. Generally, the landslides begin as small debris slides that develop into large, shallow debris avalanches or debris flows involving pyroclastic horizons and colluvial soils (0.5–2 m thick) on steep and vegetated slopes, often at the heads of gullies. During motion, the landslide materials eroded vegetation and soils from the slope, so that the moving material volume tended to increase. Then, proceeding towards and beyond the base of the slopes, the phenomena evolved into hyperconcentrated streamflow due to dilution by incorporating water. The results of motion analyses are described. An empirical rheological relationship was used including two principal terms that depend on the total normal stress and on the flow velocity. On this basis, the model has simulated the velocity and duration of debris avalanches and the distribution of the deposits. The selected areas were those of Sarno/Quindici and Cervinara, where a large amount of data is available both on the material properties and geomorphological setting. It was found that the majority of the cases at the two sites can be simulated successfully with only one specific pair of rheologic parameters. This provides the possibility for first-order predictions to be made of the motion of future landslides. Such predictions will be a valuable tool for outlining potential hazard areas and designing remedial measures.