自然类比法在地震序列分类及震后趋势早期判别中的应用

从震后趋势判断的实际需要出发，提出了一种地震序列类型划分的新方法，即根据强余震次数将序列划分为无强余震型、强余震较少型、强余震较多型、强余震极多型四种类型。为了实现早期判别的目标，采用地震后３天的资料用自然类比法对地震序列类型和震后趋势作判断。将新发生的序列前３天应变能释放分布情况和频度分布情况与以前发生的序列逐一加以比较，用柯尔莫哥洛夫－斯米尔诺夫检验找出与之最相似的一、二个序列，用已知序列的类     

分形方法在地震序列类型早期判别中的应用

着重讨论了地震序列的空间分布随时间变化的特性，利用分形方法提取大震后余震的空间分维信息，从而达到早期判别地震序列类型的目的。以１９６６年以来定位精度较好、余震记录较全的１２个７级以上大震和大同６级强震序列为资料，计算了震后１个月内余震随时间变化的空间分维数。结果发现，不同类型的地震序列分维数不同。一般震后５－６天，主震型序列的分维数在１．１－１．２之间，多震型序列的分维数在１．３以上。利用前７天的     

1995年9月20日山东省苍山5·2级地震

本文着重概述了１９９５年９月２０日苍山５．２级地震序列具有应变能和频度呈正常衰减、衰减系数ｈ值高、ｂ值正常波动等特征；阐述了震后早期在现场判断其为主震—余震型序列的基本依据，探讨了孕震环境机制和地震的动力问题。     

自然类比法对张北──尚义6.2级地震序列类型和震后趋势早期判断实例

用自然类比法对1998年1月10日张北─尚义6．2级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行了早期判断,找出了与之最相似的四个序列是1976年9月23日巴音木仁6．2级地震（S17）、1996年5月3日包头6．4级地震（558）、1985年4月18日禄劝6．3级地震（S34）和1984年5月21日南黄海6．0级地震（S33）。由此判断张北地震序列为主震余震型,推算最大余震震级应在4．3～4．7之间,一个月内4级以上余震数可能在11～22次之间。实测结果张北地震最大余震震级4．6,一个月内4级以上余震数18次,均在预测范围内。     

云南地区地震序列分类的定量讨论

本文通过对云南地区１９６５提以来１１６次大小地震序列的清理和归纳，引入了地震序列分类的时空强定量尺度，提出；表明震源区进人失稳状态的前震序列主要发生在主震前１０天，前震序列的最大震级５．５级；震群型地震序列在时间、地点上的确定应与震级有关，在时间上以同在地震孕期内为宜，７、６、５级分别不超过１年、半年、３个月，在地点上以同在地震孕震区内为２，７、６、５级分别不超过１００、５０、３０公里，震级上以小子等于０．５级为宜；主余震地震序列和孤立型地震序列的最大震级差分别是２．９级和３．３级     

地震序列类型早期判断的可能性

详细讨论利用地震现场提供的１天、３天和７天观测资料，预测地震序列类型和最大强余震震级的可能性和现实性。４７个Ｍ≥６．０地震的地震序列实例检验表明，利用７天内的观测资料，准确率可达到８５．１％。因此，使用ｂ值横截距法有可能在早期预测最大强余震的震级并判断地震序列的类型。     

中国大陆主震后十年内的强余震活动分析

晚期强余震往往会对曾经历过主震破坏后重建的地区再次遭受预想不到的损失，许多研究者对此已做了大量的工作。本文在较系统地整理了１８００年以来中国大陆（除深震以外）７．０级以上的主震及其６．０级以上的强余震资料，同时补充了东部（１０５°Ｅ以东）地区６．０级以上的主震及其５．０级以上的强余震资料，共获得９３次主震及其有序列的完整资料。在此基础上初步获得了中国大陆主震后１０年内强余震活动的部分统计特征：（１）主震后１０年内有强余震的占总数。（２）主余震型地震超过总数。（３）８级主震没有震群型地震。（４）在主震后１月内发生的强余震超过强余震总数。（５）强余震累计频数随时间衰减很快。鉴于目前尚无较好地判定一次强震或大地震后，震源区是否有可能发生晚期或特晚期强余震的方法。本文初步尝试利用主震后１个月内的资料作为指标，运用推广的贝叶斯公式，使用了该公式推导出的概率法和概率计数法，对主震后２月—１０年期间（同时提出三个时间段：２—１２月，２月—４年，２月—１０年）是否会发生强余震的类型作出判断。然而对Ｂａｙｅｓ方法的效果又将建立模型用的９３次完整的主震及序列资料，作为内符检验的样本，内符检验的正确率为８０％以上。同时内符检验的     

模式识别在强余震等早期综合判别中的应用研究

本文利用所收集到的２９个６级以上地震序列，探讨将模式识别ＣＯＲＡ－３算法用于５级以上强余震或震群或再发生更大地震的前震－主震－余震型地震序列早期综合判断的可能性及具体方法。文中参与学习和训练的２５个地震序列中，８个Ｉ类序列全部被正确识别，１７个ＩＩ类序列中有１６个被正确识别，只有１个被误判为Ｉ类，预报评分Ｖ值达０．９２。对于留作外推的４个地震序列中，２个ＩＩ类序列全部被正确识别，２个Ｉ类序列，１个     

德令哈6．6级地震前地震活动及地震序列特征

德令哈6．6级地震发生在青海省地震局2003年度会商确定的应注意地区内，震前测震学出现多项中短期异常。该地震序列从其能量释放比、震级差均符合主震一余震型判断指标，为主震-余震型序列。序列跟踪工作总结出该序列早期阶段(20天内)预测强余震的几项指标。     

地震序列的有序度及多分形特征

为研究不同类型地震序列物理过程的差异，我们研究了１５１例国内外的地震序列主震后早期的地震有序度和多分形特征的差异。主要结果为：能量分配的不同是序列主震后早期的主要分类标志。地震序列的能量熵值可作为序列早期分类的定量指标．序列蠕变熵值的变化速率可作为后续强余震的预测依据之一．对于主震型序列，由于介质的均匀性相对较好，余震破裂可以充分扩展，子系统作用顺利，从而导致能量分配比较集中（Ｑｃ值较低），时间结构的多重分形Ｄｑ变化幅度较大。反之，对于震群序列，由于震源区存在多个障碍体，使得子系统的作用受到一定程度的阻碍，破裂不能顺利扩展，因此，可能会造成能量分配比例失调，表现为大事件增多，Ｑｃ值较高，余震过程相对拉长，时间多重分形Ｄｑ差值变小．由此可见，不同类型的地震序列在主震后早期能量分配的集中程度的差异以及时间多重分形跨度的变化，很可能反映了余震区破裂扩展的充分程度。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.