国外气象科技服务

1 国际气象科技服务由来和发展背景 1．1 国际气象科技服务由来 国际上，气象科技服务始于20世纪20年代初期。随着社会经济发展和科技进步，社会对气象科技服务的需求不断增加，促进了气象科技服务的发展。特别是进入20世纪80年代后期气象科技服务得到迅速发展。     

“九五”期间我国农业气象科技若干进展

文章简要回顾了20世纪我国农业气象科技的发展历程,重点阐述了“九五”期间我国气象部门在农业气象科技方面所取得的若干重大进展,包括国家重点科技攻关项目‘农业气象灾害防御技术研究’和‘农业气象灾害防御技术研究’和‘气候异常对我国农业生产影响评估模型的研究’等科研成果以及农业气象业务服务的拓展和业务能力的建设;并从当前面临的机遇与挑战出发,探讨了农业气象科技在新世纪之初的可能发展趋势。     

浅谈气象科技服务工作存在的问题

遵义市气象局从80年代开始努力探索气象科技服务工作,围绕公共需求,积极开拓气象科技服务业务领域,不断增强气象科技服务产品,充分利用各种科技手段向社会全方位传递气象信息,基本满足了人民群众的需要。随着社会的发展,科技信息服务业务的拓展扩大,服务技术力量的增强,服务质量的提高,都是在今后的科技信息服务道路上面临的巨大挑战。进一步构建科技信息平台,提高气象产品的综合水平,增强信息科技服务的现代化,加强科技信息人才培养势在必行。     

解放思想 转变观念 共谋气象信息事业发展——乐山市“121”免收信息费之调研分析

20世纪从 90年代初开始 ,“12 1”气象信息答询服务便在全国各地迅猛发展 ,成为了社会公众及时获取天气预报、气象科技服务以及其它相关科技服务的重要途径 ,同时也成为了气象部门向社会公众提供各类气象科技产品 ,宣传气象科技的重要传媒。“12 1”在给公众带来方便的同时 ,也促进了气象事业的发展 ,在一些地区已经成为气象事业发展的重要经济支撑。它以其方便、快捷、内容丰富、科普性强和更贴近公众实际生活等特点 ,在各类电信信息答询服务中独具特色 ,且越来越受广大市民和游客的关注。甚至在一些发达地区已开始显现出等同或优于电视、…     

基层台站农业气象工作探讨

对目前基层气象台站农业气象业务服务工作存在问题及系统内外部发展环境进行了分析 ,对基层气象台站农业气象工作发展的对策、模式进行了探讨。     

紧紧围绕经济社会发展大局彰显气象科技服务在公共气象服务中的重要作用

本文介绍了新疆气象科技服务中心在公众气象服务、专业专项气象服务、交通气象服务、能源气象服务、重大工程气象服务等方面开创性地开展的各项工作,阐明了科技服务只要坚持公共气象服务的发展方向,以经济、社会发展对气象事业的需求为引导,紧紧依托气象业务及科研,不断丰富气象科技服务产品,就能显现出博大的生命力。     

用“三气象”理念指导气象科技服务工作

中国气象事业发展战略研究提出了以“公共气象、安全气象、资源气象”为核心的发展理念，为新时期气象科技服务发展指明了方向，提供了理论依据和实践保证。气象科技服务要依托气象业务、科技、信息资源等优势来发展，其本质是一个科技问题。在新的发展时期，气象科技服务作为气象事业的重要组成部分，必须坚持“三气象”理念，在做好公益服务的同时，大力推进气象科技服务的发展。发展中需要正确处理好科技服务与基本业务、深化与发展、部门内与部门外的关系。     

贵州省气象科技服务中心

贵州省气象科技服务中心是贵州省气象局直属事业单位，在承担部分气象基本业务的同时，又承担了公共气象服务发布、气象科技服务和拓展气象服务领域的工作，中心主要业务由气象信息服务、气象影视服务和专业专项服务三部分构成。     

提高气象科技服务水平的几点设想

1　增强服务市场化意识构筑产业化机制体系气象科技服务是以气象信息的生产、加工、传播、应用为主要存在方式的重要的产业经济。要以市场为导向 ,拓宽气象科技服务领域 ,做到专业化、专门化、专项化、多样化、精细化、高效化 ,有针对性的为社会、为用户服务 ,不断提高气象科技创新和技术开发的高度和服务的科技含量 ,加快科技成果转化为生产力的速度 ,构筑气象产业化发展机制体系。2　服务体系提高服务能力气象部门主动建立与各行业联系的有效机制 ,形成长期稳定的气象科技服务业务 ,推进专业服务的规模化发展 ;以基本业务体系为依托 ,建立…     

依托部门优势推进我区气象科技服务发展

从上世纪80年代初期至今，气象科技与专业有偿服务已发展成为我区气象系统不可或缺的重要组成部分。“九五”期间，我区气象科技服务与产业进入了稳步发展阶段，气象科技服务领域进一步拓宽，服务内容更加深化，初步形成了专业气象服务、电视天气预报广告、公众气象信息服务、手机短信息服务、大气环境评价、防雷检测与工程服务以及气球庆典     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...