近海面风场对黄东海域海平面特征影响的分析与模拟

基于1993—2012年TOPEX/Poseidon(T/P)卫星海平面异常SLA(Sea Level Anomaly)数据和FSCR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析风场资料,分析黄东海域近20 a海平面的时空分布特征,尤其是不同时间尺度风场影响的变化特征,进而通过区域海洋模式对海面高度短期变化的可能机制进行探讨。结果表明:1)黄东海域海平面多年平均状态为南高北低,近海面季节性风场在岸线分布和海水热膨胀特征下,造成海面冬春季偏低,夏秋季偏高。近20 a黄东海域平均风速逐步减弱,平均海面上升速率为2.9 mm/a。2)风场的短期活动主要为灾害性大风,统计显示冬夏寒潮大风和台风大风均呈频数减少、强度增强的趋势。运用FVCOM(Finite Volume Community Ocean Model)模拟分析台风和寒潮作用下黄东海域海平面的变化,发现台风强风可形成辐散式海流气旋式涡旋,对应海面为下凹负值中心;北路寒潮大风可形成海流反气旋式涡旋,对应海面为上凸正值中心。两类涡旋的强海流部分增强了海面倾斜度。3)强海流部分动能和动量迅速向海水深部下传,无论在深度和强度上,寒潮造成的海流涡旋动能和动量下传比台风涡旋更迅速,更强。这与寒潮降温引起的海洋层结不稳定对流作用有关。     

影响台湾岛海域的西太平洋台风特征分析

选取台湾岛附近海域(20~27°N,117~125°E)为计算区域,对1949~1999年发生在该海域的西太平洋台风的路径分类、月际变化、年际变化、周期特征、移速和强度等要素进行了气候统计学分析,得出7~9月是台风发生的关键月份,台风发生频次的年际变化表现为下降的趋势,且1995~1999年近5年时间台风频次一直稳定维持在较低水平。用Mann-Kendall方法做突变分析和t检验,没有明显的突变年。利用小波分解技术,计算得出影响台湾岛海域的西太平洋台风年发生频次具有4~6年和13~14年左右的周期。西北行路径西太平洋台风是登陆台湾岛和进一步登陆我国大陆的主要台风,西行路径台风51年来没有登陆我国大陆的记录,转向行路径台风强度最大,平均移速最快。     

经向基流和地形对惯性重力波的影响

采用分层浅水波方程组和ＷＫＢ方法，分别讨论了经向基流的垂直切变和南北走向的地形对二维惯性重力波的移速，稳定性以及发展的影响。     

理想海域中台风引起的潮、流及波的分析 II.海岸及陆架的影响

采用理想的大陆架地形和台风模型计算了不同方向登陆的台风所激发的海洋响应。结果表明,岸边的潮位变化主要是由于台风引起的强迫振动造成的。而对于登陆型台风来说,在远离台风路径的地方,潮位的变化则是由于边缘波效应。对地平直海岸和二维大陆架,自由边缘波的振幅远小于强迫波的振幅。平行海岸移行台风在岸边产生随台风一起移动的强制波,其中当台风沿着与Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波相同的方向移行时,岸边有陆架波产生,反之则没有陆架波。此外,还讨论了与风暴潮相关的近岸环流。     

理想海域中台风引起的潮、流及波的分析 Ⅱ.海岸及陆架的影响

采用理想的大陆架地形和台风模型计算了不同方向登陆的台风所激发的海洋响应。结果表明,岸边的潮位变化主要是由于台风引起的强迫振动造成的。而对于登陆型台风来说,在远离台风路径的地方,潮位的变化则是由于边缘波效应。对地平直海岸和二维大陆架,自由边缘波的振幅远小于强迫波的振幅。平行海岸移行台风在岸边产生随台风一起移动的强制波,其中当台风沿着与Kelvin波相同的方向移行时,岸边有陆架波产生,反之则没有陆架波。此外,还讨论了与风暴潮相关的近岸环流。     

台风中－α尺度重力惯性波的发展与暴雨增幅

通过数值模拟和诊断研究得出,９２１６号台风暴雨的增幅与台风中－α尺度重力惯性波的发展,传播,非均匀层结构的分布以及积云对流潜热反馈有关。大尺度非线性平流希的作用激发出大尺度的重力惯性波,积云对流潜热加热作用导致非地转风场扰动大大加强,从而使重力惯性波波幅加大,上升运动增强,暴雨加大。     

台风中－α尺度重力惯性波的发展与暴雨增幅

通过数值模拟和诊断研究得出，９２１６号台风暴雨的增幅过程与台风中－α尺度重力惯性波的发展、传播，非均匀层结的分布以及积云对流潜热反馈有关。大尺度非线性平流项的作用激发出大尺度的重力惯性波，积云对流潜热加热作用导致非地转风场扰动大大加强，从而使重力惯性波波幅加大，上升运动增强，暴雨加大。当重力惯性波向稳定度减小的方向传播时，波能量最易加强     

台风螺旋雨带——涡旋Rossby波

台风中的螺旋云雨带是由多种探测手段被观测到的现象 ,是为大家所共识的不争事实。但是 ,对它的形成、维持的理论解释 ,虽有多种学说 ,一直以来人们都倾向于重力惯性波说。而重力惯性波说有一个致命的弱点 ,即波的相速理论值为 10 1m/s量级 ,它要比螺旋云雨带实测移速只有 10 0 m/s几乎大一个量级。于是从前几年开始 ,人们又回到 30多年前提出的涡旋 Rossby波说那里去寻找合适的解释。经典的Rossby波是 β =(df/dy)作用的大尺度波动 ,而适用于台风中螺旋云雨带的涡旋———Rossby波乃是 f平面 (β =0 )上的中尺度波动。那末 ,对这两类尺度不同和成波机理不同的波动 ,何以均冠予Rossby波一词 ?本文试图从动力学等价原理上 ,对此作统一联系的说明。其结果是 :台风基本气流的涡度 ζ随径向 (r)变化的梯度d ζdr=1rr(r vλ) ,在动力学上等价于科氏参数 f随纬度变化的梯度即β=df/dy ;或者说它们在绝对涡度守恒的前提下 ,作为波扰动的成波机理是等价的     

基于WRF的高原低涡内波动特征及空心结构的初步研究

本文采用美国新一代非静力中尺度数值模式WRFV3.1.1版本对2006年8月14日的1次高原低涡过程进行了3重嵌套的数值模拟,分析模拟输出的高时空分辨率资料,发现涡度散度在各层次上均存在着正负值区域的相临交替分布,体现出一定的波动性,并随时间的变化而旋转,由此对高原低涡中的涡旋波的产生和发展进行详细分析,发现高原低涡中同时具有产生涡旋Rossby波与惯性重力波的条件,进一步粗略计算了涡旋波切向的移速介于涡旋Rossby波与惯性重力波的理论移速之间。由分析结果得出结论认为,在低涡中心区域,由于较高的涡度径向梯度,同时有较强的辐合辐散,波动表现出以涡旋Rossby波与惯性重力波混合的特性为主;低涡外围区域中涡度径向梯度大大减弱,失去了产生涡旋Rossby的条件,显现为惯性重力波的特性。同时高原低涡生命期相对较短,波动在圆周上的传播条件不均匀,这说明可能大多高原低涡螺旋形态的发展并不均匀或并不完整,较难形成如同海上热带气旋般比较均匀和完整的螺旋云带。另外,模拟也发现,在低涡成熟阶段,低涡呈现暖心结构,中心区域垂直运动较弱,表现为相对平静的眼区域。      

基于WRF的高原低涡内波动特征及空心结构的初步研究

本文采用美国新一代非静力中尺度数值模式WRFV3．1．1版本对2006年8月14日的1次高原低涡过程进行了3重嵌套的数值模拟,分析模拟输出的高时空分辨率资料,发现涡度散度在各层次上均存在着正负值区域的相临交替分布,体现出一定的波动性,并随时间的变化而旋转,由此对高原低涡中的涡旋波的产生和发展进行详细分析,发现高原低涡中同时具有产生涡旋Rossby波与惯性重力波的条件,进一步粗略计算了涡旋波切向的移速介于涡旋Rossby波与惯性重力波的理论移速之间。由分析结果得出结论认为,在低涡中心区域,由于较高的涡度径向梯度,同时有较强的辐合辐散,波动表现出以涡旋Rossby波与惯性重力波混合的特性为主;低涡外围区域中涡度径向梯度大大减弱,失去了产生涡旋Rossby的条件,显现为惯性重力波的特性。同时高原低涡生命期相对较短,波动在圆周上的传播条件不均匀,这说明可能大多高原低涡螺旋形态的发展并不均匀或并不完整,较难形成如同海上热带气旋般比较均匀和完整的螺旋云带。另外,模拟也发现,在低涡成熟阶段,低涡呈现暖心结构,中心区域垂直运动较弱,表现为相对平静的眼区域。     

与水平风切变强度不均匀相联系的CISK惯性重力波

在虚拟高度坐标系中, 用一个简单的线性模式初步研究了水平风切变强度不均匀分布对长江流域梅雨锋附近贯穿整个对流层的深厚惯性重力波发生发展的影响。结果表明:水平风切变强度不均匀对CISK惯性重力波不稳定有重要作用。在一般干的层结大气中, 实际可能出现再强的水平风切变的影响也难以使惯性重力波变得不稳定; 只有在积云对流潜热参与, 原为弱稳定条件下, 水平风切变强度不均匀能促使低空急流北侧不稳定扰动的发生发展。而水平风切变强度不均匀对不稳定贡献最大的区域是梅雨锋南侧的急流轴附近。     

Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic,Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions

The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.     

Significance of nitrogen dioxide absorption in estimating aerosol optical depth and size distributions

Abstract

Changes to the Beaufort Sea shoreline occur due to the impact of storms and rising relative sea level. During the open‐water season (June to October), storm winds predominantly from the north‐west generate waves and storm surges which are effective in eroding thawing ice‐rich cliffs and causing overwash of gravel beaches. Climate change is expected to be enhanced in Arctic regions relative to the global mean and include accelerated sea‐level rise, more frequent extreme storm winds, more frequent and extreme storm surge flooding, decreased sea‐ice extent, more frequent and higher waves, and increased temperatures. We investigate historical records of wind speeds and directions, water levels, sea‐ice extent and temperature to identify variability in past forcing and use the Canadian Global Coupled Model ensembles 1 and 2 (CGCM1 and CGCM2) climate modelling results to develop a scenario forcing future change of Beaufort Sea shorelines. This scenario and future return periods of peak storm wind speeds and water levels likely indicate increased forcing of coastal change during the next century resulting in increased rates of cliff erosion and beach migration, and more extreme flooding.     

Generation of oceanic internal gravity waves by a cyclonic surface stress disturbance

Atmospheric cyclones with strong winds significantly impact ocean circulation, regional sea surface temperature, and deep water formation across the global oceans. Thus they are expected to play a key role in a variety of energy transport mechanisms. Even though wind-generated internal gravity waves are thought to contribute significantly to the energy balance of the deep ocean, their excitation mechanisms are only partly understood.The present study investigates the generation of internal gravity waves during a geostrophic adjustment process in a Boussinesq model with axisymmetric geometry. The atmospheric disturbance is set by an idealized pulse of cyclonic wind stress with a Rankine vortex structure. Strength, radius and duration of the forcing are varied. The effect upon wave generation of stratification with variable mixed-layer depth is also examined.Results indicate that internal gravity waves are generated after approximately one inertial period. The outward radial energy flux is dominated by waves having structure close to vertical mode-1 and with frequency close to the inertial frequency. Less energetic higher mode waves are observed to be generated close to the sea floor underneath the storm. The total radiated energy corresponds to approximately 0.02% of the wind input. Deeper mixed-layer conditions as well as weaker stratification reduce this fraction.The low energy transfer rates suggest that other processes that drive vertical motion like surface heat fluxes, turbulent motion, mixed region collapse and storm translation are essential for significant energy extraction by internal gravity waves to occur.     

对“麦莎”路径及造成黄渤海域大风浪的数值模拟

2005年9号热带风暴“麦莎”8月8R凌晨开始影响大连,到10R过程完全结束,历时近两天,不仅造成了暴雨（局部大暴雨）天气,而且大连海区出现最大风力8-9级、阵风11级的大风。此时适逢天文大潮高峰期,渤海和黄海北部海域出现4m以上的浪高,形成了风暴潮。利用MM5模式和第三代浅水波浪数值预报SWAN模式,对“麦莎”的移动路径以及“麦莎”造成黄渤海域的强风场、强浪场进行模拟,结果与实况基本一致,并且通过模拟,对缺少资料的海面风场、浪高场有更全面的了解。     

Monitoring sea level changes

Future sea level rise arouses concern because of potentially deleterious impacts to coastal regions. These will stem not only from the loss of land through inundation and erosion, but also from increased frequency of storm floods, with a rising base level, even with no change in storm climatology, and from saltwater intrusion and greater amounts of waterlogging. Current sea level trends are important in formulating an accurate baseline for future projections. Sea level, furthermore, is an important parameter which integrates a number of oceanic and atmospheric processes. The ocean surface demonstrates considerable variability on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, induced by winds, storm waves, coastal upwelling, and geostrophic currents. Secular trends in sea level arise from changes in global mean temperature and also from crustal deformation on local to regional scales. The challenge facing researchers is how best to extract the climate signal from this noise.This paper re-examines recent estimates of sea level rise, discusses causes of variability in the sea level records, and describes methods employed to filter out some of these contaminating signals. Evidence for trends in long-term sea level records and in extreme events is investigated. Application of satellite geodesy to sea level research is briefly reviewed.     

2006年4月28日山东强飑线过程中尺度结构和动力机制分析

利用探空、地面自动气象站、多普勒天气雷达和NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,对2006年4月28日影响山东大部的强飑线过程的中尺度结构进行了诊断分析。此次强飑线是由东北冷涡横槽沿西北气流下滑激发对流发展形成的,冷涡横槽底部为后倾的干冷下沉气流区,干空气侵入有利于位势不稳定能量的储存。冷涡横槽在300 hPa最为强盛,并连接横槽前后南北两支急流,对流层顶折叠特征明显;高空横槽区的地转调整运动引发中尺度重力波,促进了高空急流动量向对流层中下部的传输,加剧了地面大风灾害。风暴发生区具有明显的等熵面倾斜、对流不稳定和垂直风切变,具有倾斜涡度剧烈发展的条件。风暴发生区中低层散度场、垂直速度场和地面风压扰动场均具有典型中尺度重力波的结构特征,风暴和中尺度重力波相互耦合促进,是强飑线发展维持的重要动力机制。     

The effect of a regional increase in ocean surface roughness on the tropospheric circulation: a GCM experiment

The sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to an increase in ocean surface roughness in the Southern Hemisphere storm track is investigated in a paired general circulation model experiment. Such a change in sea roughness could be induced by ocean waves generated by storms. Two extended permanent-July runs are made. One with standard sea surface roughness, the other with ten times as a large surface roughness over open sea poleward of 40° S. The regional increase in ocean surface roughness significantly modifies the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest effect is the reduction of tropospheric winds (by 2 m/s or 10%) above the area with increased roughness. The poleward eddy momentum flux is reduced in the upper troposphere and the meridional eddy sensible heat flux is reduced in the lower troposphere. Zonal mean and eddy kinetic energy are consistently reduced.     

寒潮过程中风浪对黄海海气热量通量和动量通量影响研究

采用2009—2013年CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)大气和海洋再分析资料对黄海海气间热量通量和动量通量的特征进行统计分析,并通过FVCOMSWAVE浪流耦合模式对典型寒潮过程中风浪的影响效果进行模拟研究与对比分析。统计结果显示,通量受海表大风、海气温差及海洋环流等因子影响,秋冬季节强烈,春夏季节相对较弱,在寒潮活跃的冷季该海域的海流处于弱流期,风浪对海面通量的作用明显增强。海温特征也显示冷季的不稳定性显著强于暖季,因此该海域冷季具有更强的海气热量通量。沿岸站点的比较显示,南部吕泗站面向更开阔的东海海域,其平均波高高出北部20%左右。这与沿海南部通量强于北部特征对应。数值模拟显示,在寒潮过程中,海气界面热量通量和动量通量输送比多年月平均状态显著增强,动量通量增大1~5倍,热量通量增大1~6倍。寒潮过程入海冷锋走向、强度、移动方向显著影响海面热量通量和动量通量大值区的分布。偏北路寒潮纬向型冷锋入海,其强度东部大于西部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海东北部,而偏西路寒潮经向型冷锋入海,其强度南部大于北部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海南部。同时偏北路径寒潮强度大于偏西路径,海气动量通量响应较偏西路径强约25%,热量通量强约50%。耦合风浪作用的模拟显示,海气间热量通量和动量通量明显增大,对不同强度风浪,浪高增加1.5倍,动量通量最大值增大约2倍,热量通量增大10~160 W/m2;浪高减弱至0.5倍,动量通量最大值则减弱约40%,热量通量减小10~55 W/m2。冷锋及其驱动的风浪强烈影响区域海气通量时空特征。