涡动在南北半球平流层极涡崩溃过程中作用的比较

比较了南北半球春季平流层极涡的崩溃过程以及涡动在此崩溃过程中的作用。极涡的崩溃时间以平流层极夜急流核区最后一次西风转换为东风的时间来确定。结果表明南北半球平流层极涡的崩溃过程有着共同的特点,涡动和非绝热加热过程都对极涡的崩溃起着重要的作用,在极涡崩溃前平流层行星尺度波动活动明显,极涡崩溃以后,这种波动活动便迅速减弱。其中从对流层上传的行星波决定着极涡的具体崩溃时间。两个半球的差别主要表现在南半球极涡崩溃过程一般始于平流层高层,然后逐渐下传,而北半球这种下传不是很明显。其次,北半球平流层极涡崩溃偏晚年,极涡的减弱有两次过程,第一次为快速变化过程,第二次变化比较缓慢,而南半球平流层极涡崩溃无论早晚年只有一次减弱过程。长期的变化趋势分析表明南北半球平流层极涡的崩溃时间逐渐推迟,特别是20世纪90年代中后期以来,这种推迟更加明显。进一步的研究还发现,伴随着平流层极涡的崩溃过程平流层和对流层存在强烈的动力耦合,南北半球极涡迅速减弱前,各自半球的环状模指数也由负指数增加为正指数,表明低层环流对于平流层极涡的崩溃起到重要的作用;同时极涡不同强度所对应的低层环状模指数也不同,这可能与不同强度平流层极涡对于上传的行星波的反射有关。     

Stratospheric Polar Vortex Splitting in December 2009

Abstract

The 2009–10 Arctic stratospheric winter, in comparison with other recent winters, is mainly characterized by a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in late January associated with planetary wavenumber 1. This event led to a large increase in the temperature of the polar stratosphere and to the reversal of the zonal wind. Unlike other major SSW events in recent winters, after the major SSW in January 2010 the westerlies and polar vortex did not recover to their pre-SSW strength until the springtime transition. As a result, the depletion of the ozone layer inside the polar vortex over the entire winter was relatively small over the past 20 years. The other distinguishing feature of the 2010 winter was the splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex into two lobes in December. The vortex splitting was accompanied by an increase in the temperature of the polar stratosphere and a weakening of the westerlies but with no reversal. The splitting occurred when, in addition to the high-pressure system over northeastern Eurasia and the northern Pacific Ocean, the tropospheric anticyclone over Europe amplified and extended to the lower stratosphere. Analysis of wave activity in the extratropical troposphere revealed that two Rossby wave trains propagated eastward to the North Atlantic several days prior to the vortex splitting. The first wave train propagated from the subtropics and mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific Ocean over North America and the second one propagated from the northern Pacific Ocean. These wave trains contributed to an intensification of the tropospheric anticyclone over Europe and to the splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

平流层极涡变化与我国冬季气温、降水的关系

利用国家气候中心提供的1951-2010年逐月环流指数资料,分析了北半球极涡强度指数、面积指数和中心强度指数的相关关系,并通过极涡强度指数的变化讨论了冬季北半球极涡强度的时间变化特征。结果表明,冬季极涡强度指数与面积指数和中心强度指数有较好的相关性,能够更好地反映冬季极涡强度的变化特征;冬季极涡存在准13年的年代际振荡周期,准5年的年际振荡周期在20世纪90年代后期较为明显。结合气温、降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,探讨了极涡强、弱不同年份我国冬季气温、降水和大气环流形势的变化。相对极涡弱值年而言,极涡强值年我国北方地区、东部地区特别是东北地区的气温偏高,西南大部分地区的气温偏低,长江流域和华南地区的气温变化不明显;我国南方地区降水偏多,长江中下游和华南地区的降水偏多最为明显,北方地区的降水略有减少;500hPa高度场上高纬度地区的位势高度降低,中高纬度的位势高度升高,冷空气向极地聚集,东亚大槽减弱,我国东北和东部地区的气温偏高;同时东亚冬季风减弱,湿空气向我国内陆输送,长江流域和我国南方地区的降水偏多。     

The Role of Stationary and Transient Planetary Waves in the Maintenance of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Regimes in Northern Hemisphere Winter

Using 1958-2002 NCEPNCAR reanalysis data, we investigate stationary and transient planetary wave propagation and its role in wave-mean flow interaction which influences the state of the polar vortex (PV) in the stratosphere in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. This is done by analyzing the Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux and its divergence. We find that the stationary and transient waves propagate upward and equatorward in NH winter, with stronger upward propagation of stationary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and stronger equatorward propagation of transient waves from mid-latitudes to the subtropics in the troposphere. Stationary waves exhibit more upward propagation in the polar stratosphere during the weak polar vortex regime (WVR) than during the strong polar vortex regime (SVR). On the other hand, transient waves have more upward propagation during SVR than during WVR in the subpolar stratosphere, with a domain of low frequency waves. With different paths of upward propagation, both stationary and transient waves contribute to the maintenance of the observed stratospheric PV regimes in NH winter.     

北极涛动、极涡活动异常对北半球欧亚大陆冬季气温的影响

利用1951-2012年NCEP/NCAR全球月平均500 hPa高度场、气温场等再分析资料,北极涛动（AO）指数,北半球及其4个分区的极涡指数等资料,分析极涡和AO对北半球特别是欧亚大陆冬季气温异常分布的影响。北半球极涡面积指数与北半球气温相关场呈由北向南的“+、-”分布,显著正相关中心位于极区,显著负相关中心位于欧亚大陆中高纬度地区;AO指数与气温的相关场分布与此反位相。极涡各分区面积指数体现与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征,尤其是亚洲极涡面积指数比AO的相关区域更偏向亚洲和中国东部及沿海地区,能表征亚洲大陆冬季风向中低纬度爆发的某些特征。2006年以来AO指数呈较明显的下降趋势,北半球、亚洲区极涡面积指数呈显著的上升趋势,这是有利于欧亚大陆近几年连续冬季气温异常偏低的年代际背景;2009-2011年北半球欧亚大陆冬季大范围低温事件,不仅与冬季AO负位相明显变强有关（2011年除外）,与北半球以及亚洲区极涡面积指数偏大联系更为密切,亦表明该区域冬季变冷的自然变率明显增强。     

300 hPa北极涡年际及年代际变化特征的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1949—2002年月平均再分析高度场资料,通过线性倾向估计、二项式系数加权平均、Morlet小波分析等诊断方法,系统地讨论了300 hPa北半球极涡面积、强度及中心位置的年际和年代际变化特征,结果表明:(1)年平均北极涡的面积在20世纪70年代中期之前在总的上升趋势中有几次较小的波动,之后在总体下降趋势中有几次较大的起伏;Ⅰ、Ⅱ区的线性变化趋势非常小,Ⅳ区最大,夏季的年际变化相对明显一些,秋季变化最弱,各季节均有线性收缩趋势,冬季幅度最大,秋季最小。(2)年平均极涡强度的年际、年代际变化特征与极涡面积有相似之处,但不同年份存在显著差异;各分区的强度变化与北半球类似(特别是Ⅰ区);夏季的年际变化幅度最大,春、夏季年代际变化的特征明显,秋季最弱。(3)北极涡中心位置通常并不在北极点,各分区极涡总面积所占的百分比有明显差异,且有月际变化,这些差异与海陆热力差异造成的环流的差异密切相关;极涡的主要位置有一定的年际、年代际变化特征;极涡中心位置主要偏向亚洲大陆及太平洋一侧。     

两个大气环流模式SAMIL和BCC_AGCM对北半球冬季极涡振荡的模拟对比

基于与NCEP再分析资料的比较, 本文利用大气环流模式SAMIL和北京气候中心大气环流模式BCC_AGCM的1950～1999年的AMIP试验模拟数据, 对北半球冬季环流及平流层极涡振荡的模拟性能进行了评估分析。结果表明两个模式都可以再现北半球环流基本型以及环流振荡的主导模态。对冬季气候平均态的模拟, 两个模式模拟的热带—热带外温度梯度均偏大, 极夜急流偏强, 极涡偏冷偏强;100～20 hPa平均位势高度场谐波分析表明两个模式模 拟的行星波偏弱;气候平均的10 hPa极夜急流均存在1个月的季节漂移, 200 hPa副热带西风急流较NCEP偏弱。两个模式模拟的环流变化的主导模态均代表极涡振荡, SAMIL极涡振荡的强度大于BCC_AGCM, BCC_AGCM极涡振荡的频率要高于SAMIL。连续功率谱分析表明, NCEP资料中极涡振荡存在4.6个月的显著周期, 相应地, SAMIL中为5.5个月的显著周期, BCC_AGCM中为4.8个月。NCEP资料中的极涡振荡主要发生在12～3月, SAMIL模拟的极涡振荡主要发生在2～3月, BCC_AGCM模拟的极涡振荡主要发生在2～4月。     

热带加热异常影响冬季平流层极涡强度的数值模拟

本文利用大气环流模式SAMIL/LASG,通过选择两种对流参数化方案,研究了热带加热异常对热带外平流层模拟的影响。结果表明,因不同对流参数化方案引起的热带对流加热状况的差异,可显著影响模式对北半球冬季平流层极涡强度的模拟偏差。与采用Manabe对流参数化方案相比,采用Tiedtke参数化方案可以显著改善对平流层极涡强度的模拟,使平流层极涡“过强”及极区“过冷”的模拟偏差得到明显改善。研究其中的影响过程发现,由于Manabe方案最大凝结潜热加热高度过低,在对流层中低层;而Tiedtke方案的最大凝结潜热加热位置在对流层中上层,因而Tiedtke(Manabe)方案时热带大气温度在对流层中上层较为偏暖(偏冷),在平流层低层较为偏冷(偏暖)。自秋季开始,与热带对流层高层温度的暖偏差相联系,热带外对流层高层以及热带平流层低层出现伴随的温度冷偏差;与之对应,平流层中纬度从秋季开始也出现持续的温度暖偏差。另外,随着秋冬季节平流层行星波活动的出现,Tiedtke方案时热带外地区行星波1波的强度也明显强于Manabe方案,使得秋冬季节涡动引起的向极热通量在Tiedtke方案时明显偏强,从而造成了冬季平流层极区温度偏暖、极涡强度偏弱。     

冬季北极涛动与极涡的变化分析

利用NCEP／NCAR资料计算出冬季极涡面积（PVA）指数和极涡强度（PVI）指数，对冬季北极涛动（AO）和北半球500hPa极涡指数进行周期分析，讨论了冬季AO与极涡的年际、年代际变化。结果表明：冬季AO指数与PVA指数呈反相关关系，与PVI指数呈正相关关系，且AO指数呈上升趋势，PVA指数呈下降趋势。冬季AO指数、PVA指数以及PVI指数均具有多重周期。强（弱）AO指数年，极地500hPa高度场降低（升高），PVI指数偏大（偏小），PVA指数偏小（偏大）。500hPa高度场上亚洲大槽、北美大槽均减弱（加强）。AO可激发出类似EU遥相关型的异常，从而影响到东亚地区的气候。冬季AO指数在1982年发生突变，且突变后北太平洋地区的正中心位置更靠东，强度更大。此外，AO突变前后极涡变化不是很显著。     

The Hindcast of Winter and Spring Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation with the Coupled Climate Models

This study evaluates the ability of the global coupled climate models in hindcasting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The results show that the models can well simulate the spatial distribution of AO with better results in winter than in spring. In the troposphere in spring, the simulation of AO on the whole is still relatively good with a comparatively high correlation with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The models can also well reproduce the spatial distribution of AAO throughout the year at all levels of the troposphere, and the spatial simulation is better at 850 hPa than at the surface. Although the simulation is better in winter than in other seasons, the seasonal variation is not so significant and the differences among different models are relatively small. In addition, the capability of the models for “predicting” the AO and the AAO index time series is limited, because only a few models can capture their observed interannual variability at the 95% significance level.     

平流层极涡偏移对我国冬季降水的影响

利用1970—2010年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、我国160站月平均降水资料分析了平流层极涡向欧亚大陆偏移与我国冬季降水的关系。结果表明:1月极涡偏欧亚大陆强度指数与同期1月降水的显著正相关区域主要分布在我国中部大面积地区及新疆西南部的少数地区,显著负相关区域主要分布在新疆中部;相对1月而言,与后期2月显著正相关区域仍然主要分布在我国的中部地区但向西北方向延伸,使得华中北部、华北南部相对减少,而华北西部、西北东部等地区增大。对流层环流形势显示出在欧亚型强极涡年的1月,东亚冬季风和东亚大槽异常减弱,我国内陆中东部东南风距平显著,而贝加尔湖北部北风距平显著,南下的冷空气与暖湿气流交汇地区较常年偏北,同时我国中部地区低层水汽向上传播也明显增强,存在显著的水汽强辐合中心。     

Two Types of Arctic Oscillation and Their Associated Dynamic Features

In this paper,the dynamical evolutions of two types of Arctic Oscillation (AO),the stratospheric (S) and tropospheric (T) types,have been investigated on an intermediate time scale in terms of transient eddy feedback forcing and three-dimensional Rossby wave propagation.S-Type (T-type) events are characterized by an anomalous stratospheric polar vortex that is in phase (out of phase) with its tropospheric counterpart.Approximately onethird of AO events,both positive and negative,are T-type events.For the positive phase of a T-type event,the formation and maintenance of stratospheric positive anomalies over the polar cap are associated with an upward propagation of Rossby wave packets originating from the near-tropopause altitude over northeastern Asia.However,such upward propagating features are not found for S-type events.In the troposphere,transient eddy feedback forcing is primarily responsible for the meridional seesaw structure of both the S-and T-type events,with an additional contribution from Rossby wave propagation.     

Mechanism of an Abrupt Decrease in Sea-Ice Cover in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic during the Late 1980s

The recent decline in Arctic sea-ice cover (SIC) shows seasonal and regional characteristics. The retreat of summer sea ice has occurred mainly in the Pacific sector of the Arctic. In this study, using the moving t-test, we found an abrupt change event in the long-term sea-ice area in the Pacific sector in summer 1989. This event was linked to the phase shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). Corresponding with the AO/NAM phase shift from negative to positive, the area of the northern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex decreased abruptly in winter 1988/89. Comparisons of two periods before (1979–1988) and after (1989–1993) the abrupt decrease in sea ice show that an anomalous winter sea level pressure (SLP) was induced by changes in the polar vortex leading to an anomalous cyclonic ice drift in the Pacific sector. The changes in SLP and wind field persisted into the following spring, resulting in a decrease in SIC and warming of the surface air temperature (SAT). The influence of the spring SLP and SAT on ice persisted into the following summer. Meanwhile, the increased summer net surface heat flux over the ocean and sea ice as a result of the decreased spring ice cover further contributed to the summer sea-ice melt.     

平流层强、弱极涡事件的演变过程及其对我国冬季天气的影响

本文利用1979～2010年的NCEP再分析资料,通过北半球环状模NAM指数挑选出的强、弱极涡个例,分析了北半球平流层异常变化过程中行星波的演变以及与之相联系的我国天气的变化特征。结果表明,在强极涡事件前,行星波1波会被反射回对流层,极地波导减弱,低纬波导增强,中高纬地区的E-P通量矢量有着从平流层传播到对流层的趋势;强极涡事件后,极地波导增强,低纬波导减弱。在弱极涡事件前,中、高纬度行星波1波沿着极地波导的传播明显增强;弱极涡事件后,极地波导明显减弱。与此对应的我国天气也有明显变化,在强极涡事件前,我国大部分地区温度偏低,南方地区偏湿而新疆西北部和云南西部地区偏干;在强极涡事件后,东亚冬季风进一步增强,冷空气加强南下,南方地区可降水量减少,新疆西北部仍然偏干,而云南大部分地区可将水量增加。在弱极涡事件前,东亚冬季风显著增强,使我国气温偏冷,降水减少,而弱极涡事件后,我国气温明显回升,中、东部地区和新疆西北部地区降水明显增加。     

Modulation of the Aleutian–Icelandic Low Seesaw and Its Surface Impacts by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO's modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.     

2019-2020冬季北半球超强极涡事件

2019-2020冬季北极平流层极涡异常并且持续的偏强,偏冷.利用NCEP再数据和OMI臭氧数据,本文分析了此次强极涡事件中平流层极涡的动力场演变及其对地面暖冬天气和臭氧低值的影响.此次强极涡的形成是由于上传行星波不活跃.持续的强极涡使得2020年春季的最后增温出现时间偏晚.平流层正NAM指数向下传播到地面,与地面AO...     

夏季区域极涡异常对塔里木河流域降水的影响

采用1961-2015年夏季大西洋-欧洲极涡面积指数和塔里木河流域43个站降水资料,研究该区域极涡面积异常对该流域降水的影响。结果表明:两者年际变化呈显著的反位相关系;在极涡面积异常偏小（大）年,西风急流在西亚和中亚减弱（增强）,在东亚则相反;500 hPa欧洲中部和贝加尔湖地区的高压脊偏强（偏弱）,东亚低压槽偏弱（偏强）,中亚经向环流增强（减弱）;700 hPa塔里木河流域天气扰动活跃（不活跃）,东风和西南风（西北风）的水汽输送增强,西部和北部等主要降水区水汽辐合（辐散）,该流域降水偏多（偏少）。在极涡面积异常偏小年的夏季,塔里木河流域水平风场和垂直运动从高纬度到低纬度的经向变化分布与大西洋-欧洲区相似,大西洋-欧洲极涡区与塔里木河流域之间存在西北-东南的环流异常分布,大西洋-欧洲极涡面积异常可能通过该环流异常分布影响塔里木河流域及周边风场、水汽输送和垂直运动,进而影响到该流域降水。     

2007/2008和2008/2009冬季平流层强、弱极涡事件对应的行星波活动的对比分析

在对逐日气象资料进行纬向谐波分析的基础上, 对比和讨论了2007/2008年冬季强极涡期间和2008/2009冬季弱极涡期间平流层和对流层不同波数的行星波的变化特征, 特别关注强极涡或弱极涡发生之后, 500 hPa 沿60°N和30°N行星波1波和2波振幅和位相的差异, 以及相应的500 hPa位势场的差异, 进而讨论为什么不同的平流层极涡异常会对东亚有不同的影响, 特别讨论为什么同一种极涡异常, 对我国南北方近地面气温的影响会不同。结果表明:平流层极涡发生异常时, 平流层行星波活动有明显的异常。随着极涡异常的下传, 对流层行星波的振幅和位相也有明显的变化, 而且, 对于不同的纬度带, 其变化又有不同, 表现为:2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 500 hPa行星波1波和2波的扰动都向南伸, 而2009年1月的弱极涡(SSW)期间和之后, 1波和2波的扰动都偏北; 在对流层, 强极涡和弱极涡发生之后不但行星波1波和2波的振幅有所差异, 其位相也有明显的不同。特别是, 其位相的差异还随纬度而变化。就同一年(或者说对于同是强极涡或者同是弱极涡)而言, 无论是1波还是2波, 在60°N和30°N附近的扰动相比, 几乎反位相。这样就使得它们的500 hPa 位势场也有明显不同:在东半球, 主要表现为乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽的强度和位置不同。2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽东移, 不利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部(包括我国北方)的输送, 使这些地区的温度偏高;而2009年1月弱极涡之后, 东亚大槽西退, 利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部输送, 导致这些地区较冷。对于同一种极涡异常(如2008强极涡或者2009弱极涡)由于南方和北方行星波扰动的位相不同, 对南方和北方冷暖空气的输送也就不一样。所以同一种极涡异常对(我国)南北地区的温度影响是不同的。     

耦合模式对冬春季节南、北极涛动的季节气候预测能力研究

研究评估了耦合气候模式对冬、春季北极涛动(AO)和南极涛动(AAO)的预测效能。结果表明,模式对于北极涛动和南极涛动的模拟能力都是比较强的,其中,对冬季的模拟能力要强于春季。冬季,几乎所有的模式都能很好地模拟出对流层内北极涛动的空间分布形态特点,空间相关系数很高。春季,大部分模式的模拟结果仍然是比较好,与再分析资料结果的空间相关性比较高。对于南极涛动,模式在全年对流层各个层次上都能比较好地刻画其空间分布,且模式在850hPa等压面上的空间模拟效能要稍强于海平面。相对来说,冬季的模拟效果也稍强于其他季节,但是,差异不显著,模式与模式的差别也比较小。另外,模式对于北极涛动和南极涛动的时间序列模拟能力有限,时间序列相关系数只有少数几个模式达到显著性水平。     

Seasonality of the Lagged Relationship between ENSO and the Northern Hemispheric Polar Vortex Variability

This paper reports the seasonal feature of the relationship between ENSO and the stratospheric Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO) variability in the Northern Hemisphere.It is shown that the lagged ENSO-PVO coupling relationship exhibits distinct seasonal feature,due to the strong seasonality of PVO and ENSO.Specifically,the PVO variability not only during winter,but also in autumn and spring months,is significantly correlated with ENSO anomalies leading by seasons;however,no significant effect of ENSO is found on the PVO variability in winter months of November and February.Although a significant ENSO effect is primarily observed when ENSO leads PVO by about one year,a significant correlation is also found between PVO in the following spring months (M +1 A +1) and ENSO anomalies in the previous autumn (A-1 S-1 O- 1 N -1) when ENSO anomalies lead by about 18 months.The significant correlation between PVO in various seasons and the corresponding ENSO anomalies leading by seasons could be explicitly verified in most of the individual years,confirming that the lagged ENSO effect can largely modulate the seasonal timescale variability of PVO.Moreover,the composite spatial patterns of the zonal-mean temperature anomalies further show that the ENSO effect on the PVO in various seasons is related to the interannual variability of the seasonal timescale PVO events.