Predicting future urban impervious surface distribution using cellular automata and regression analysis

Urban impervious surfaces are considered as key indicator of urbanization intensity and environmental quality. Due to their significant impact on surface runoff, flood frequency, and water quality, impervious surfaces have been identified as an important indicator for examining the hydrological impact of urbanization. The amount and distribution of impervious surfaces have been estimated using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Little research, however, has been conducted to predict future impervious surface distributions. To address this problem, we developed an integrated residential/commercial growth and impervious surface distribution model to predict urban impervious surface distribution. Taking Milwaukee River Basin, Wisconsin as a case study, we simulated future residential and commercial developments using a CA model. Further, we developed a linear regression model to predict impervious surface distributions in residential and commercial land uses. Analysis of results suggests that the proposed model performs significantly better than the traditional approaches.     

The distribution and growth of urban settlements in Saudi Arabia

This paper examines the distribution characteristics of urban settlements in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through major dimensions such as settlement regularly, degree of primacy and polarisation at the national and geographic regional levels. The paper points out that the settlement pattern at the national level has transformed from a primate distribution during the pre-plan period (< 1970) to an intermediary distribution during the period of development planning (1970 >). At the geographical regional level the settlement distribution, however, has shown diverse pattern. While the regional settlement distribution of Western and Eastern Region have shown trends of increasing polarisation, settlements in the Northern and Southern Regions are more log-normal in character. This is explained by the increasing growth of small and intermediary towns in the Northern and Southern Regions. The paper concludes that the national trend of decreasing urban primacy, induced by the decentralised national development strategies, is less pronounced due to the absence of a balanced regional investment policy. Since the government expenditure and settlement population growth rates are not related, slow growing primate cities continue to receive a larger share of public expenditure, enabling them to retain their primacy. This calls for a balanced regional investment policy to fully realise the national strategy of regional balance and multi-polar settlement pattern.     

The distribution and configuration of tree cover in urban Hong Kong

The urban tree cover of a sample area in Hong Kong, selected for its exceptionally good tree cover that penetrate the built-up matrix, was mapped at 15000 scale using aerial photographs. Distribution and configuration of cover was quantified by systematic line sampling. Sampled segments were assigned to appropriate habitat types, urban zones and land uses. Chi-square analysis was employed to detect associations between some observed pairs. Attributes to characterize tree cover and habitats were proposed. Tree cover was found predominantly on slopes well mixed with the urban matrix. Patches of trees in roadside habitats and offroad open spaces were small and disconnected in rigid geometric patterns. Natural slopes unaffected by urban development supported woodlands at high elevation outside the city boundary. Cover in artificial or natural residual slopes (undeveloped slopes embedded within the urban matrix) showed wide variations. Most of the narrow curvilinear units were oriented along contours and situated between roads and buildings. Cover and segment size increased progressively from coastal reclaimed zones to the upslope lands. Areas of high-density land use had scanty cover; most tree cover was found outside subdivided lots in places of lower density land use. Topographical control of urban morphology, habitat and cover characteristics were evident. The dimension, orientation and connectedness of the largely unplanned residual-slope cover were inadequate as wildlife refuges. The principles and possible applications of island biogeography theory in the urban setting was assessed. The dynamic interaction between urbanization and tree cover was summarized. Potential for neighborhood nature parks should not be wasted. Possibilities to protect and enhance tree cover and mould its configuration in a landscape plan in existing and new urban areas were discussed.     

Changing poverty distribution in Bolivia: the role of rural–urban migration and urban services

Bolivia is a country with high levels of poverty and inequality among its peoples and regions. For the nation and its urban and rural areas, trends in the social and spatial distribution of poverty (and extreme poverty) are identified from 1976 to 2003 using UBN data with minor support where appropriate from poverty lines. The main survey between 1992 and 2001 uses composite and selected UBN to track detailed poverty change for the country’s nine departments, its ten largest cities and a selection of other smaller urban and rural municipalities. Because of rising background increases in population in the various surveyed administrative units, many instances of relative reductions in poverty are accompanied by rising absolute increases. Marked spatial variations in poverty and development in the country over the last several decades are identified as the main driver for the country’s quickening pace of rural–urban migration. As a result, the paper concludes by assessing two different but closely related views. One investigation tests the notion that because more poor people have been living in Bolivia’s cities than in its rural areas since the mid to late 1990s, rapid rural–urban migration has simply shifted the locus of poverty from the countryside to the cities in a process called, the ‘urbanisation of poverty.’ A second, more challenging, investigation assesses the view that the flow of poor rural people to the better serviced urban areas of Bolivia has actually acted to alleviate national poverty levels.     

The distribution characteristics of heavy metals in Guiyang urban soils

Guiyang is located in southwestern China,which is a famous tourism city,and is awarded the title of"the Summer Capital of China".A study on heavy metals in Guiyang urban soils was conducted.The results showed that the concentrations of Cd,Cu,Ni,Pb and Zn in Guiyang urban soils are significantly higher than their background values and Cu,Zn and Pb in Guiyang soils are accumulated seriously.The distribution characteristics of heavy metals in 3 districts are described as follows:the level of heavy metals in soils follows the order of Nanming District> Yunyan District>Xiaohe District.The spatial distribution of metals in urban soils of Guiyang shows that the level of metals in the central and eastern parts of Guiyang is relatively high,and its characteristics are attributed to the influence of commercial activities,heavy traffic and industrial emission.Compared with some other cities in China,Guiyang is characterized by relatively high accumulation level of Cd,Cu,and Zn in its soils.     

Coal-cleaning distribution curve simulation: Fitting six different models by microcomputer

A microcomputer program for simulating coal-cleaning distribution curves has been developed and includes six different models and two different optimization methods. By displaying the simulated distribution curves on a graphic screen, the curves for different models can be compared and the most suitable model selected. The importance of using this graphics criterion as well as the conventional statistical measurements of error is illustrated. This program requires no user knowledge of either computer programming or of the mathematical procedures.     

The geographic distribution of metals in urban soils: the case of Syracuse,NY

A paucity of literature currently exists pertaining to the high-resolution geographic distribution of metal contaminants across urban areas. Thousands of soil samples were collected across Syracuse, NY to secure empirical evidence about such geographic distributions. Metal measurements were made with XRF technology, with quality assessments based upon replicate samples as well as ICP technology summarized here. Both metal covariations and their spatial structure are described, followed by mapping of selected metal measurements based upon sample points, as well as census block group and census tract aggregates. A simple comparison is presented between certain of these empirical results and a selected non-urban landscape (a river floodplain). Finally, implications drawn from the empirical evidence presented include covariation assessments with selected census data that serve as surrogates for poverty.     

The difficult combination of renting and building a house in urban Ghana: analysing the perception of low and middle income earners in Accra

This study examines the experiences of low and middle income earners in urban Ghana in combining renting and self-building a house with their meagre income. Using a case study of 3 building sites in Accra, this study employs semi-structured interview guide to gather qualitative data from fifty respondents. The conclusion of this study is that improving housing career amidst other competing responsibilities in the life course pathways imposes stress and huge financial burden on households in a manner that they are compelled to forgo or cut down on non-housing consumption such as clothing, up-keep of in-laws, marriage, higher educational qualification and cars among others. This study recommends a revisit of the discussion on the enforcement of the provisions of the Rent Act, 1963 and consideration of the practice of rent deposit and monthly rent. Affordable housing finance options should be a priority of African governments and their development partners.     

Source and distribution of metals in urban soil of Bombay,India, using multivariate statistical techniques

Simplification of a complex system of geochemical variables obtained from the soils of an industrialized area of Bombay is attempted by means of R-mode factor analysis. Prior to factor analysis, discriminant analysis was carried out taking rock and soil chemical data to establish the anthropogenic contribution of metals in soil. Trace elements (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) are expressed in terms of three rotated factors. The factors mostly indicate anthropogenic sources of metals such as atmospheric fallout, emission from different industrial chimneys, crushing operations in quarries, and sewage sludges. Major elements (Na, Mg, Al, Si, P, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, and Fe) are also expressed in terms of three rotated factors indicating natural processes such as chemical weathering, presence of clay minerals, and contribution from sewage sludges and municipal refuse. Summary statistics (mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis) for the particle size distribution were interpreted as moderate dominance of fine particles. Mineralogical studies revealed the presence of montmorillonite, kaolinite, and illite types of clay minerals. Thus the present study provides information about the metal content entering into the soil and their level, sources, and distribution in the area.     

The changing distribution of sex ratios in the british urban system

The preponderance of females in society has steadily decreased since the last war. This paper uses Metropolitan Economic Labour Areas to examine the differential effect of these changes and suggests associations with retirement migration and increasing female economic activity rates.     

城市湖泊生态环境需水量计算——以北京市六海为例

城市湖泊生态环境需水量包括:城市湖泊蒸发需水量、城市湖泊自身存在的需水量、生物栖息地的需水量、城市湖泊净化需水量、湖泊渗漏需水量、景观、娱乐需水量。需水量计算在遵循生态优先原则、兼容性原则、最大值原则和等级制原则的基础上,还应充分考虑时间性原则。计算了北京市六海各季节(冬季除外)生态环境需水量,结果表明:北京六海春、夏、秋及全年的最小生态环境需水量分别为:296.82、643.94、474.59和1415.35万m3,其中净化需水量分别占35 87%、71 23%、70 08%和63 42%。根据研究和计算结果,对改善六海生态环境提出了建议。     

Shanghai urban influences on humidity and precipitation distribution

By comparing simultaneously observed data of humidity and precipitation in Shanghai Urban area with those in its suburbs, we first deal with the urban influences on humidity. We find that both the average absolute humidity and relative humidity (diurnal, monthly and annual) are lower in the city than those in the surrounding 10 counties but night-time absolute humidity excess in the city exhibits a moisture island similar to that of temperature. The example is shown from a summer night at 5 h on Aug. 10, 1959.When 20-year's records of isohyets of annual average precipitation, average precipitation of rainy seasons (May–September), and that of other seasons (October–April) are analyzed, the urban influences on the distribution of annual precipitation and the rainy season precipitation become obvious, but it seems that the other seasons are not affected.Some rain events that illustrate the main contributing causes are also discussed, namely, heat island, obstacle effects and pollution products, for the modification and augmentation of precipitation in urban area and in the lee of the city.     

The distribution of population and medical facilities in the Arab Republic of Yemen

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between population distribution and medical facilities in the Arab Republic of Yemen. In order to do this hospital work-loads have been calculated for each province. The results show that the provision of health services, in the country as a whole, is rather critical, while the situation in certain provinces has reached a dangerous level. The paper concludes with a call for the Yemeni authorities to substantially improve the delivery of medical care on a nationwide scale.     

Economic development and population distribution in Albania

This article analyses the relationship between internal migration patterns and regional economic development in present-day Albania. Using demographic data migration figures were calculated for the period 1965–1971. These figures indicate that there is a Strong tendency for migration from the peripheral areas to the industrial triangle of Durrës-Tirana-Elbasan, and to the fertile farming area of the coastal lowlands which used to be malarial swamps. Present government policy however is directing growth away from the largest centres towards both the smaller centres and rural areas. Recent aims have been to achieve as even a spread of population and economic activity as possible.     

New ports as nodes for industrial and urban development: The cases of Richards Bay and Saldanha in South Africa

Richards Bay and Saldanha were officially opened in 1976 as new deep water ports, primarily for the export of coal and iron ore respectively. The heavy investment in both infrastructure and industrial development by the South African government led to considerable urban and industrial growth in Richards Bay, whereas the port of Saldanha was initiated by one big concern and failed to produce a far reaching multiplier effect. The development of ports as growth centres has to be considered in terms of the location relative to the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vereeniging complex, which dominates the economy of the subcontinent, and within the context of the official decentralisation-growth point policy.     

桂林市及近郊土壤汞的分布和污染研究

通过对桂林市区及近郊表层、底层土壤汞的系统取样,测试和编图,阐明了本区土壤汞的分布规律,确定了土壤汞的污染区段和污染程度。在上述工作的基础上,结合基岩汞测量、热释汞方法和重金属元素组合分析,对土壤汞的来源、污染无比汞的赋存状态进行了初步探讨。     

New Zealand since 1984: Elite succession, income distribution and economic growth in a small trading economy

Four interrelated patterns of structural change in the New Zealand economy since 1980 are identified and analysed, against the backdrop of a growth rate which fell substantially behind the rest of the OECD in the late 1980s and early 1990s before recovering, but without catchup, from 1993. The changes discussed are: a shift in sharemarket capitalization from formerly-dominant productive activities in agriculture, manufacturing and construction to the current predominance of utilities, transport and finance; a sharp increase in overseas investors' share of the economic surplus, from around 20% to over half of post-tax corporate profits; a steady rise in international indebtedness at the same time as sovereign foreign-currency debt was eliminated; hence overseas debt was successfully privatized; a weakening of regulatory control over monopoly profits, opening the way for a surge of rent-seeking activity during the 1990s. The neoliberal reform programme has achieved fiscal and monetary sustainability, increased market flexibility, and insulated the economy against external shocks. At the same time it has led to denationalisation of economic surplus, ongoing current account deficits, and a significant diversion of resources from productive use into rent-seeking. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Changing patterns of population distribution in Zimbabwe

This paper critically evaluates the causes and consequences of changes in population distribution in Zimbabwe during the colonial period and since independence in 1980. Five main aspects of population geography are examined. Firstly, by way on background on contemporary patterns of settlement and land use, the history of tenure policies is outlined. Secondly, the distribution of the African population as revealed in the 1982 census is described and major changes between the census years of 1962, 1969 and 1982 are discussed. Thirdly, changing patterns of settlement and land use within the peasant farming areas (Communal Lands) are examined in the context of increasing population pressures. Fourthly, trends in the growth of the main urban centres and the process of urbanisation of the African population are described. Fifthly, post-independence development policies directed at effecting changes in the distribution of population are discussed with particular reference to the land resettlement programme. The present distribution of population is seen as the product of interacting political, economic and environmental factors, knowledge of which is essential in devising appropriate development strategies to achieve a more equable balance of population and resources.     

Population evacuation analysis: considering dynamic population vulnerability distribution and disaster information dissemination

Abnormal tsunami amplification and runup in narrow bays is studied with respect to the Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009. The data of the tide gauge in Pago Pago harbour are used to calculate wave runup in the city of Pago Pago (Tutuila, American Samoa) for two approximations of the bottom topography: a plane beach and a narrow bay. Theoretical estimates of tsunami runup are compared with field survey data for the 2009 Samoa tsunami. It is shown that both formulations result in equally good estimates of runup, having approximately the same difference with the field measurements. However, the narrow bay model presents more wave amplification and, consequently, runup, which is the main observation of the field survey. The differences in estimated shoreline velocity, travel time and wave breaking regime, calculated in the framework of these two approximations, are also discussed. It is concluded that wave runup in narrow bays should be calculated by the corresponding formulas, which should be taken into account by tsunami early warning systems.