Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin,Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree‐day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash–Sutcliffe metric ~0.84, annual volume bias < 3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002–2006 period is estimated to be 29.7 ± 2.9% (which includes 4.2 ± 0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3 ± 2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000–5500 m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9 ± 3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9 ± 1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree‐day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Catchment area‐based evaluation of the AMC‐dependent SCS‐CN‐based rainfall–runoff models

Using a large set of rainfall–runoff data from 234 watersheds in the USA, a catchment area‐based evaluation of the modified version of the Mishra and Singh (2002a) model was performed. The model is based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) methodology and incorporates the antecedent moisture in computation of direct surface runoff. Comparison with the existing SCS‐CN method showed that the modified version performed better than did the existing one on the data of all seven area‐based groups of watersheds ranging from 0·01 to 310·3 km². Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Benchmarking land use change impacts on direct runoff in ungauged urban watersheds

This paper describes the results of benchmark testing of land use change impact on direct runoff using Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) model in two ungauged neighbouring urban watersheds (Çınar and Kadıyakuplu) in Istanbul, Turkey. To examine this impact, the model was applied to daily rainfall data using three different dated (1982, 1996 and 2012) hydrological soil groups and land use of the two ungauged urban watersheds. Finally, the impact of land use change and model performance were evaluated with the rainfall-runoff regression, the coefficient of determination and the NSE test using benchmark runoff data based on 1982 land use conditions. The results of the analysis indicate that the changing of land use types from natural surfaces to impervious surfaces has a significant impact on surface runoff. Additionally, remarkable spatial variations of the land use changes and their impact on the runoff in 1996 and 2012 were more detected in the Çınar watershed compared with the Kadıyakuplu watershed. The planning decision on land use of the watersheds, has vital role in these differences. The results of this research also reveal that change to intensive land use in urban watersheds has a significantly larger impact on runoff generation than those rainfall.     

A spatially distributed Clark’s unit hydrograph based hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark)

ABSTRACT

A hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS.     

Transient and Transition Factors in Modeling Permafrost Thaw and Groundwater Flow

Permafrost covers approximately 24% of the Northern Hemisphere, and much of it is degrading, which causes infrastructure failures and ecosystem transitions. Understanding groundwater and heat flow processes in permafrost environments is challenging due to spatially and temporarily varying hydraulic connections between water above and below the near-surface discontinuous frozen zone. To characterize the transitional period of permafrost degradation, a three-dimensional model of a permafrost plateau that includes the supra-permafrost zone and surrounding wetlands was developed. The model is based on the Scotty Creek basin in the Northwest Territories, Canada. FEFLOW groundwater flow and heat transport modeling software is used in conjunction with the piFreeze plug-in, to account for phase changes between ice and water. The Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) flow model is used to calculate ground temperatures and surface water balance, which are then used as FEFLOW boundary conditions. As simulating actual permafrost evolution would require hundreds of years of climate variations over an evolving landscape, whose geomorphic features are unknown, methodologies for developing permafrost initial conditions for transient simulations were investigated. It was found that a model initialized with a transient spin-up methodology, that includes an unfrozen layer between the permafrost table and ground surface, yields better results than with steady-state permafrost initial conditions. This study also demonstrates the critical role that variations in land surface and permafrost table microtopography, along with talik development, play in permafrost degradation. Modeling permafrost dynamics will allow for the testing of remedial measures to stabilize permafrost in high value infrastructure environments.     

Effect of Permafrost Rocks on Water Resources Formation in Eastern Siberia: Case Study of Some Rivers in Eastern Siberia

The study is focused on the specific features of water resources formation in Eastern Siberia under variable climate and regional occurrence of permafrost rocks. Expert estimates are given to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on climate evolution in this large region. Under present-day climate conditions, featuring temperature rise and some increase in precipitation as resource-forming factors, the most significant changes are shown to have taken place in the formation of water resources and regime of dry-season runoff in individual rivers of Eastern Siberia, including the Lena, Indigirka, Kolyma, etc. Present-day resources of surface water and groundwater resources in the region are mapped and the dynamics of the annual and dryseason runoff of the rivers are plotted.     

Detecting immediate wildfire impact on runoff in a poorly-gauged mountainous permafrost basin

Abstract

The impact of fire on daily discharges from two mountainous basins located in the permafrost region of Eastern Siberia, the Vitimkan (969 km²) and Vitim (18 200 km²) rivers, affected by fire over 78% and 49% of their areas, respectively, in 2003, was investigated. The results of hydrological and meteorological data analysis suggest that the Vitimkan River basin had a rapid and profound hydrological response to wildfire in 2003 expressed through a 41% (133 mm) increase of summer flow. Conversely, the larger Vitim River basin showed no significant changes in discharge after the fire. The parameters of the process-based hydrological model Hydrograph were estimated for pre-fire conditions. The results of runoff simulations conducted for the continuous pre-fire periods of 1966–2002 and 1970–2002 for the Vitimkan and Vitim river basins, respectively, on a daily time step, showed satisfactory agreement with the observed flow series of both basins. Significant underestimation of precipitation and its poor representativeness for mountainous watersheds was revealed as the main cause of observed and simulated flow discrepancies, especially for high flood events. The set of dynamic parameters was developed based on data analysis and post-fire landscape changes as derived from a literature review. The model was applied to investigate the processes in the soil column and their effect on runoff formation during the post-fire period. The new set of model parameters implied the intensification of soil thaw, reduction of infiltration rate and evapotranspiration, and increase of upper subsurface flow fraction in summer flood events following the fire. According to modelling results, the post-fire thaw depth exceeded the pre-fire thaw depth by 0.4–0.7 m. Total evapotranspiration reduced by 40% in summer months, while surface flow increased almost 2.5 times during maximum flood events.     

Using stable isotopes to identify major flow pathways in a permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope during summer rainfall period

Global warming has leaded to permafrost degradation, with potential impacts on the runoff generation processes of permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope. Stable isotopes have the potential to trace the complex runoff generation processes. In this study, precipitation, hillslope surface and subsurface runoff, stream water, and mobile soil water (MSW) at different hillslope positions and depths were collected during the summer rainfall period to analyse the major flow pathway based on stable isotopic signatures. The results indicated that (a) compared with precipitation, the δ²H values of MSW showed little temporal variation but strong heterogeneity with enriched isotopic ratios at lower hillslope positions and in deeper soil layers. (b) The δ²H values of middle-slope surface runoff and shallow subsurface flow were similar to those of precipitation and MSW of the same soil layer, respectively. (c) Middle-slope shallow subsurface flow was the major flow pathway of the permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope, which turned into surface runoff at the riparian zone before contributing to the streamflow. (d) The slight variation of δ²H values in stream water was shown to be related to mixing processes of new water (precipitation, 2%) and old water (middle-slope shallow subsurface flow, 98%) in the highly transmissive shallow thawed soil layers. It was inferred that supra-permafrost water levels would be lowered to a less conductive, deeper soil layer under further warming and thawing permafrost, which would result in a declined streamflow and delayed runoff peak. This study explained the “rapid mobilization of old water” paradox in permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope and improved our understanding of permafrost hillslope hydrology in alpine regions.     

Parameterizing a hydrological model using a short-term observational dataset to study runoff generation processes and reproduce recent trends in streamflow at a remote mountainous permafrost basin

Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River basin in the mountainous, permafrost, hard-to-reach region of Eastern Siberia. This study aims to investigate and simulate runoff formation processes, including the factors driving recent changes in hydrological response of the Suntar River, based on short-term historical observations of a range of hydrological, climatological and landscape measurements conducted in 1957–1959. The hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957–1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957–2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km², altitude 828–2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash–Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67, respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in the global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.     

Distributed discharge and sediment concentration predictions in the sub‐humid Ethiopian highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed

Experimental research in the Ethiopian highlands found that saturation excess induced runoff and erosion are common in the sub‐humid conditions. Because most erosion simulation models applied in the highlands are based on infiltration excess, we, as an alternative, developed the Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model, which can simulate water and sediment fluxes in landscapes with saturation excess runoff. The PED model has previously only been tested at the outlet of a watershed and not for distributed runoff and sediment concentration within the watershed. In this study, we compare the distributed storm runoff and sediment concentration of the PED model against collected data in the 95‐ha Debre Mawi watershed and three of its nested sub‐watersheds for the 2010 and 2011 rainy seasons. In the PED model framework, the hydrology of the watershed is divided between infiltrating and runoff zones, with erosion only taking place from two surface runoff zones. Daily storm runoff and sediment concentration values, ranging from 0.5 to over 30 mm and from 0.1 to 35 g l^?1, respectively, were well simulated. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for the daily storm runoff for outlet and sub‐watersheds ranged from 0.66 to 0.82, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for daily sediment concentrations were greater than 0.78. Furthermore, the model uses realistic fractional areas for surface and subsurface flow contributions, for example between saturated areas (15%), degraded areas (30%) and permeable areas (55%) at the main outlet, while close similarity was found for the remaining hydrology and erosion parameter values. One exception occurred for the distinctly greater transport limited parameter at the actively gullying lower part of the watershed. The results suggest that the model based on saturation excess provides a good representation of the observed spatially distributed runoff and sediment concentrations within a watershed by modelling the bottom lands (as opposed to the uplands) as the dominant contributor of the runoff and sediment load. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative evaluation of different hydrological modelling approaches in a partly glacierized Swiss watershed

Mountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff. The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters. Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) in predicting runoff in mid-Himalayan micro-watersheds with limited data / Performances de régressions par splines multiples et adaptives (MARS) pour la prévision d'écoulement au sein de micro-bassins versants Himalayens d'altitudes intermédiaires avec peu de données

Abstract

Steep topography and land-use transformations in Himalayan watersheds have a major impact on hydrological characteristics and flow regimes, and greatly affect the perenniality and sustainability of water resources in the region. To identify the appropriate conservation measures in a watershed properly, and, in particular, to augment flow during lean periods, accurate estimation of streamflow is essential. Due to the complexity of rainfall—runoff relationships in hilly watersheds and non-availability of reliable data, process-based models have limited applicability. In this study, data-driven models, based upon the Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) technique, were employed to predict streamflow (surface runoff, baseflow and total runoff) in three mid-Himalayan micro-watersheds. In addition, the effect of length of historical records on the performance of MARS models was critically evaluated. Though acceptable MARS models could be developed with a 2-year data set, their performance improved considerably with a 3-year data set. Various indicators of model performance, such as correlation coefficient, average deviation, average absolute deviation and modelling efficiency, showed significant improvement for simulation of surface runoff, baseflow and total flow. To further analyse the versatility and general applicability of the MARS approach, 2-year data sets were used to develop the model and test it on a third-year data set to assess its performance. The models simulated the surface runoff, baseflow and total flow reasonably well and can be reliably applied in ungauged small watersheds under identical agro-climatic settings.     

Statistical estimation of runoff characteristics of watersheds in central Chile

Abstract

Estimation of monthly runoff statistical properties, such as monthly means and variances, is usually needed to design and evaluate water resource systems. If no local recorded data are available, a transfer of information through different alternative procedures can be used. In this paper, the use of linear Transfer Function (TF) models with precipitation series as inputs is proposed to estimate statistical properties of the resulting runoff series. Empirical relationships based on data from watersheds in the mountainous zone of central Chile are suggested to estimate parameters of low-order TF models and some of their properties.     

A stochastic framework to assess the performance of flood warning systems based on rainfall‐runoff modeling

Nowadays, Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems (FFWSs) are known as the most inexpensive and efficient non‐structural measures for flood damage mitigation in the world. Benefit to cost of the FFWSs has been reported to be several times of other flood mitigation measures. Beside these advantages, uncertainty in flood predictions is a subject that may affect FFWS's reliability and the benefits of these systems. Determining the reliability of advanced flood warning systems based on the rainfall–runoff models is a challenge in assessment of the FFWS performance which is the subject of this study. In this paper, a stochastic methodology is proposed to provide the uncertainty band of the rainfall–runoff model and to calculate the probability of acceptable forecasts. The proposed method is based on Monte Carlo simulation and multivariate analysis of the predicted time and discharge error data sets. For this purpose, after the calibration of the rainfall–runoff model, the probability distributions of input calibration parameters and uncertainty band of the model are estimated through the Bayesian inference. Then, data sets of the time and discharge errors are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation, and the probability of acceptable model forecasts is calculated by multivariate analysis of data using copula functions. The proposed approach was applied for a small watershed in Iran as a case study. The results showed using rainfall–runoff modeling based on real‐time precipitation is not enough to attain high performance for FFWSs in small watersheds, and it seems using weather forecasts as the inputs of rainfall–runoff models is essential to increase lead times and the reliability of FFWSs in small watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying watershed surface depression storage: determination and application in a hydrologic model

Hydrologic models often require correct estimates of surface macro‐depressional storage to accurately simulate rainfall–runoff processes. Traditionally, depression storage is determined through model calibration or lumped with soil storage components or on an ad hoc basis. This paper investigates a holistic approach for estimating surface depressional storage capacity (DSC) in watersheds using digital elevation models (DEMs). The methodology includes implementing a lumped DSC model to extract geometric properties of storage elements from DEMs of varying grid resolutions and employing a consistency zone criterion to quantify the representative DSC of an isolated watershed. DSC obtained using the consistency zone approach is compared to DSC estimated by “brute force” (BF) optimization method. The BF procedure estimates optimal DSC by calibrating DRAINMOD, a quasi‐process based hydrologic model, with observed streamflow under different climatic conditions. Both methods are applied to determine the DSC for relatively low‐gradient coastal plain watersheds on forested landscape with slopes less than 3%. Results show robustness of the consistency zone approach for estimating depression storage. To test the adequacy of the calculated DSC values obtained, both methods are applied in DRAINMOD to predict the daily watershed flow rates. Comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals a marginal difference in performance between BF optimization and consistency zone estimated DSCs during wet periods, but the latter performed relatively better in dry periods. DSC is found to be dependent on seasonal antecedent moisture conditions on surface topography. The new methodology is beneficial in situations where data on depressional storage is unavailable for calibrating models requiring this input parameter. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two‐dimensional physically based finite element runoff model for small agricultural watersheds: II. Model testing and field application

Mathematical models are useful analysis tools to understand problems in watersheds associated with runoff, and to find solutions through land use changes and best management practices. However, before a model is applied in the field, it must be tested and checked to ensure that the model represents the real world adequately. In this paper, a two‐dimensional physically based finite element runoff model ROMO2D has been verified and validated by comparing the model output with analytic solution under simplified conditions, published data, and field measurements. Calibration of the model was done manually through a multi‐objective calibration procedure, using observed field data. Before going for field validation/application of ROMO2D, analysis was carried out to determine the optimum number of finite elements into which the watershed should be discretized and the size of the time step. A sensitivity analysis of the model was performed using the observed values of watershed parameters. The model was applied to a 1·45 ha agricultural watershed located in the Shiwalik foothills (India) to simulate runoff. The results demonstrated the potential of the model to simulate runoff from small agricultural watersheds for individual storm events with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use on hydrological processes: A comparison between mountain and lowland agricultural watersheds

Mountain and lowland watersheds are two distinct geographical units with considerably different hydrological processes. Understanding their hydrological processes in the context of future climate change and land use scenarios is important for water resource management. This study investigated hydrological processes and their driving factors and eco-hydrological impacts for these two geographical units in the Xitiaoxi watershed, East China, and quantified their differences through hydrological modelling. Hydrological processes in 24 mountain watersheds and 143 lowland watersheds were simulated based on a raster-based Xin'anjiang model and a Nitrogen Dynamic Polder (NDP) model, respectively. These two models were calibrated and validated with an acceptable performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.81 and 0.50, respectively) for simulating discharge for mountain watersheds and water level for lowland watersheds. Then, an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) model was used to help quantify the alterations to the hydrological process and their resulting eco-hydrological impacts. Based on the validated models, scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological processes. The simulation results revealed that (a) climate change would cause a larger increase in annual runoff than that under land use scenario in the mountain watersheds, with variations of 19.9 and 10.5% for the 2050s, respectively. (b) Land use change was more responsible for the streamflow increment than climate change in the lowland watersheds, causing an annual runoff to increase by 27.4 and 16.2% for the 2050s, respectively. (c) Land use can enhance the response of streamflow to the climatic variation. (d) The above-mentioned hydrological variations were notable in flood and dry season in the mountain watersheds, and they were significant in rice season in the lowland watersheds. (e) Their resulting degradation of ecological diversity was more susceptible to future climate change in the two watersheds. This study demonstrated that mountain and lowland watersheds showed distinct differences in hydrological processes and their responses to climate and land use changes.     

A kinematic‐wave‐based distributed watershed model using FEM,GIS and remotely sensed data

For the appropriate management of water resources in a watershed, it is essential to calculate the time distribution of runoff for the given rainfall event. In this paper, a kinematic‐wave‐based distributed watershed model using finite element method (FEM), geographical information systems (GIS) and remote‐sensing‐based approach is presented for the runoff simulation of small watersheds. The kinematic wave equations are solved using FEM for overland and channel flow to generate runoff at the outlet of the watershed concerned. The interception loss is calculated by an empirical model based on leaf area index (LAI). The Green‐Ampt Mein Larson (GAML) model is used for the estimation of infiltration. Remotely sensed data has been used to extract land use (LU)/land cover (LC). GIS have been used to prepare finite element grid and input files such as Manning's roughness and slope. The developed overland flow model has been checked with an analytical solution for a hypothetical watershed. The model has been applied to a gauged watershed and an ungauged watershed. From the results, it is seen that the model is able to simulate the hydrographs reasonably well. A sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out with the calibrated infiltration parameters, overland flow Manning's roughness, channel flow Manning's roughness, time step and grid size. The present model is useful in predicting the hydrograph in small, ungauged watersheds. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic influences on forest fire and mountain pine beetle outbreaks and resulting runoff effects in large watersheds in British Columbia,Canada

Many studies have defined the interrelationships between climate, forest disturbance, and runoff at small scales (<100 km²), but few have translated these relationships to large watersheds (>500 km²). In this study, we explore the relationship between climate, extreme forest fire seasons, mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks, and runoff in eight large watersheds within the Fraser and Peace drainage basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada from 1981–2019. Using a climate index based on precipitation and air temperature anomalies, we find extreme forest fire seasons (those that burned >5% of a watershed's area) are most likely to occur when a warm/dry summer is preceded by multiple seasons of cool/wet conditions. Using the climate suitability class (CSC) model to explore the relationship between climate and MPB outbreaks, we validate previous findings that lower-than-average precipitation, warm growing season temperatures, and lack of extremely cold temperatures during winter are connected to MPB outbreaks within central BC. However, the CSC model needs improvements to accurately assess MPB suitability in northern watersheds that are located outside the model's calibration region, either through weighted variables or lower degree day thresholds. Minimal runoff response occurs from these forest disturbances, with the most prominent runoff change being related to the 2014 fire season in the Osilinka and Mesilinka watersheds. The limited effects of forest disturbance on annual runoff are likely related to large watershed sizes, low percentages of disturbed area in some study watersheds and post-MPB forest dynamics. These results provide valuable insight into the interrelationships of climate, forest disturbance and runoff in large Canadian boreal forested watersheds.