我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法

中强地震潜在震源区的不确定性，对弱地震活动区地震危险性分析结果的影响较大。因此，正确二划分中强地震潜在震源区，是地震区划加和工程场地地震安全性评价的基础。本文以东北和华北地区为例，较为系统地整理了大量基础资料，从众多典型震例分析结果中提出了该地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法，对长春，吉林等地区进行了实验划分结果表明，本文所提出了划分原则和方法具有较好的适应性。与此同时，还对本文取得的进展和有     

确定潜在震源区地震年平均发生率的方法研究

为了在地震危险性分析方法中,较好地反映大陆内部地震活动的时空不均匀性,按照震级分档和空间概率分布函数的思路,本文选取并量化了多个地震、地质特征,以描述各震级档地震活动在时间上和空间上的性质.为避免同一因素的重复使用和主观作用的介入,文中引入了分量分析方法对特征进行正交变换.对变换得到的互不相关的新特征进行模糊综合评判,再结合七级以上强震发生后的减震作用,确定了各潜在震源区各震级档的地震年平均发生率作为例子,试算了京-津-唐-张地区的地震烈度区划图.该例子说明,本文的分析方法,不仅能反映华北地区地震活动的时空不均匀性,还避免了特征量的重复使用和专家判断的影响      

中强地震潜在震源区划分原则和方法的研究进展

正确地划分中强地震潜在震源区，是地震区划和地震动预测的基础课题。该文在地分析地震科学联合中基金６个有关课题成果的基础上，对１２个相关的问题进行了再研究与论证，从中总结出适合我国东部地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法，最后，还对今后的研究工作提出了建议。     

潜在震源区地震年平均发生率确定方法的再探讨

应用断裂带地震复发条件概率作为潜在震源区空间概率函数来确定潜在震源区地震的年平均发生率，并运用断层分段的结果，依据其给定震级地震的平均复发间隔，计算出了未来５０年地震复发的条件概率。并以南北天山地震带为例进行了计算。结果表明，该方法是可行的，计算结果是适宜的。     

中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.     

苏浙皖沪地区中强地震潜在震源区判定标志的研讨

通过对区内中强地震震例、地震构造背景、地壳深部构造、居里等温面埋深变化及地震空间分布特征的分析，提出区内中强地震潜在震源区判别的主要标志，重点讨论了区内中强地震与中地壳层内的深变质岩系和居里等温面的关系。     

确定地震年发生率的便捷excel算法

给出一个利用常用办公软件Microsoftexcel功能来计算和分配地震年发生率的便捷算法。它不需编程 ,不需输入大量的控制参数 ,因此非常方便快捷 ;其加权分配过程直观 ,便于参数的分配和调整 ;可以自动进行参数校验 ,不易出错 ;每一地震带一张表 ,包含了该震源的所有参数信息 ,是一个高效实用的算法     

中国东部中强地震潜在震源区地震复发概率分布

本文对中国大陆东部102个中强潜在震源区内1500a以来5—6级地震的复发间隔进行了统计分析,得到了中强地震复发间隔不仅受潜源内断层活动性影响,还与发震构造是否交汇及邻区构造活动等因素有一定关系。中强地震复发间隔大致满足指数分布,通过给出的概率模型可以计算出研究区内各潜在震源区未来一定时间内的发震概率,为地震危险性分析提供一些基础资料。     

孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分

提出了孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分其参数确定的思路和方法，即在综合考虑孤立中强地震所在地震区的总体地震构造特征与地震活动水平的基础上，利用历史地震等震线，余震分布，区域应力场及震源机制等资料，确定其潜在震源区的参数。     

中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定

地震动衰减关系是影响地震安全性评价特别是地震区划结果的重要因素.我国现行的地震动衰减关系主要是依据6级以上地震的地面运动资料得到的,并没有考虑中强地震的衰减特性.为此,文中利用现有的烈度资料和其他可供参考的研究成果来建立我国中强地震活动区的地震动衰减关系.收集了我国华中、华南、东北等地区的51次地震的烈度等震线资料,运用单随机变量加权最小二乘回归法得到中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系.然后以美国西部地区为参考地区,运用缺乏地震动参数的地震动估计方法-地震对映射法得到中强地震活动区峰值加速度和有效峰值加速度衰减关系.最后,通过与我国强地震区和中强地震区已有的烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的对比,验证了得出的我国中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的合理性.     

Active blocks and strong seismic activity in North China region

The active North China block consists of three second-order blocks: Ordos, North China Plain, and East Shandong-Huanghai Sea blocks. Two active tectonic zones, the Anyang-Heze- Linyi and Tangshan-Cixian zones, exist in the active North China Plain block and have separated the active block into 3 third-order active blocks, Taihangshan, Hebei-Shandong, and Henan-Huai blocks. The 3 third-order active blocks are characterized by their entire motion and are clearly different in their Cenozoic structures and deep structures. The active boundary tectonic zones between the third-order active blocks are less than those between the first- and second-order active blocks in their movement strength, extent, and seismic activity. The density of M ≥ 6 earthquakes in the boundary zones between active blocks is higher than that within the blocks by 9-22 times in the North China region, up to one order of magnitude on average. M ≥ 7 earthquakes occurred basically in the boundary zones between active blocks. The difference is not occasional, but reflects the nature of intraplate movement and the characteristics of strong seismic activity and is the powerful evidence for hypothesis of active blocks.     

Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation

In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.     

青藏块体强震活动状态分析

强震活动状态分析与研究是地震形势跟踪分析的重要基础,以频次的角度分析和探讨青藏块体的强震状态特征,研究表明,青藏块体存在强震平静与活跃交替活动的状态特征,已经历5个平静与活跃交替活动的状态过程.2008年3月21日于田7.3级地震、5月12日汶川8.0级地震和2010年4月14日玉树7.1级地震的发生表明青藏块体强震活动已处于活跃状态.     

基于时-空ETAS模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区

利用基于时-空传染型余震序列（Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence, 简称ETAS）模型的随机除丛法,重新审视了2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震前可能存在的长期地震活动异常,研究了川滇地区背景地震活动特征,并评估了当前的强震危险状态.对川滇地区1970年以来的M_L3.0以上的背景地震和丛集地震活动的研究结果表明,该地区地震丛集特征明显、时空分布很不均匀、地震序列常有前震事件.直接将概率值作为地震计数的权重,对地震丛集率空间分布图像分析表明,汶川M_S8.0地震前,龙门山断裂带中南段存在着长期、大范围的地震丛集率低值区,震前该段处于应力闭锁状态.对川滇地区地震丛集率低值区内背景地震与全部地震的累积次数、b值和新定义的Δb等统计参量的分析表明,龙日坝与龙门山断裂带具有地震活动的关联性,川滇地区当前的强震潜在危险区可能是巧家地区和汶川M_S8.0地震破裂尚未穿越的龙门山断裂带南段.此外,还发现b值倾向于反映局部应力场变化,而Δb能较为敏感地给出更大范围应力场的相对变化.     

Accounting for source location errors in the bayesian analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard

A method is presented for incorporating the uncertainties associated with hypocentral locations in the formulation of probabilistic models of the time and space distributions of the activity of potential seismic sources, as well as of the resulting seismic hazard functions at sites in their vicinity. For this purpose, a bayesian framework of analysis is adopted, where the probabilistic models considered are assumed to have known forms and uncertain parameters, the distribution of the latter being the result of an a priori assessment and its updating through the incorporation of the direct statistical information, including the uncertainty associated with the relations between the actual hypocentral locations and the reported data. This uncertainty is incorporated in the evaluation of the likelihood function of the parameters to be estimated for a given sample of recorded locations. For the purpose of illustration, the method proposed is applied to the modelling of the seismic sources near a site close to the southern coast of Mexico. The results of two alternate algorithms for the incorporation of location uncertainties are compared with those arising from neglecting those uncertainties. One of them makes use of Monte Carlo simulation, while the other is based on a closed-form analytical integration following the introduction of some simplifying assumptions. For the particular case studied, accounting for location uncertainties gives place to significant changes in the probabilistic models of the seismic sources. Deviations of the same order of magnitude can be ascribed to differences in the mathematical and/or numerical tools used in the uncertainty analysis. The resulting variability of the seismic hazard at the site of interest is less pronounced than that affecting the estimates of activity of individual seismic sources.     

华南地区地震活动特征与台湾强震影响

以M_S5.5以上地震是否发生为标记, 划分华南地区的活跃和平静时段, 结果显示与华南地区2级以上地震频次的应力调制时间过程变化趋势有很好的一致性。 另外, 在活跃和平静时段华南地区的震级频次特点显著不同。 华南地区在中强震发生前有4级左右地震频繁活动和小震群频发的特点。 华南地区的中强震与云南地区7级地震的发生相关。 统计20世纪以来台湾强震与华南中强震的对应关系, 台湾西带6级强震后1年内华南中强震的对应率近0.5, 地区影响似有由东至西逐渐减弱的趋势。 台湾7级地震后2年内华南中强震的对应率只有0.3, 对应地区除台湾海峡、 福建和广东东部地震外, 也有几次对应广西和北部湾地区的地震, 与6级相比, 台湾7级强震影响范围大。     

空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究

使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.

     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.