3D crustal structure and long-period ground motions from a M9.0 megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest region

We have developed a community velocity model for the Pacific Northwest region from northern California to southern Canada and carried out the first 3D simulation of a M_w 9.0 megathrust earthquake rupturing along the Cascadia subduction zone using a parallel supercomputer. A long-period (<0.5 Hz) source model was designed by mapping the inversion results for the December 26, 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Han et al., Science 313(5787):658–662, 2006) onto the Cascadia subduction zone. Representative peak ground velocities for the metropolitan centers of the region include 42 cm/s in the Seattle area and 8–20 cm/s in the Tacoma, Olympia, Vancouver, and Portland areas. Combined with an extended duration of the shaking up to 5 min, these long-period ground motions may inflict significant damage on the built environment, in particular on the highrises in downtown Seattle.     

Critical evaluation of strong motion in Kocaeli and Düzce (Turkey) earthquakes

Turkey was struck by two major events on August 17th and November 12th, 1999. Named Kocaeli (M_w=7.4) and Düzce (M_w=7.2) earthquakes, respectively, the two earthquakes provided the most extensive strong ground motion data set ever recorded in Turkey. The strong motion stations operated by the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University and Istanbul Technical University have produced at least 27 strong motion records for the Kocaeli earthquake within 200 km of the fault. Kocaeli earthquake has generated six motions within 20 km of the fault adding significantly to the near-field database of ground motions for M_w>=7.0 strike–slip earthquakes. The paper discusses available strong motion data, studies their attenuation characteristics, analyses time domain, as well as spectral properties such as spectral accelerations with special emphasis on fault normal and fault parallel components and the elastic attenuation parameter, kappa. A simulation of the Kocaeli earthquake using code FINSIM is also presented.     

Strong motion characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan, China — an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.     

Simulations of Seismic Hazard for the Pacific Northwest of the United States from Earthquakes Associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone

-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.     

Earthquake ground motion predictive equations for Garhwal Himalaya,India

Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤M_w≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (M_w=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region.     

Constraints from precariously balanced rocks on preferred rupture directions for large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault

We have compared near-fault ground motions from TeraShake simulations of M_w7.7 earthquake scenarios on the southern San Andreas Fault with precariously balanced rock locations. The TeraShake scenarios with different directions of rupture generate radically different ground motions to the northwest of the Los Angeles Basin, primarily because of directivity effects, and thus provide constraints on the ground motion and rupture direction for the latest (1690) large event on that section of the San Andreas Fault. Due to the large directional near-field ground motions predicted by the simulations, we expect the precariously balanced rocks to be located primarily in the backward rupture direction or near the epicenter. Preliminary results favor persistent nucleation at or slightly northwest of the San Gorgonia Pass fault zone for large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault.     

Prediction of the maximum credible ground motion in Singapore due to a great Sumatran subduction earthquake: the worst‐case scenario

Although Singapore is located in a low‐seismicity region, huge but infrequent Sumatran subduction earthquakes might pose structural problems to medium‐ and high‐rise buildings in the city. Based on a series of ground motion simulations of potential earthquakes that may affect Singapore, the 1833 Sumatran subduction earthquake (M_w=9.0) has been identified to be the worst‐case scenario earthquake. Bedrock motions in Singapore due to the hypothesized earthquake are simulated using an extended reflectivity method, taking into account uncertainties in source rupture process. Random rupture models, considering the uncertainties in rupture directivity, slip distribution, presence of asperities, rupture velocity and dislocation rise time, are made based on a range of seismologically possible models. The simulated bedrock motions have a very long duration of about 250 s with a predominant period between 1.8 and 2.5 s, which coincides with the natural periods of medium‐ and high‐rise buildings widely found in Singapore. The 90‐percentile horizontal peak ground acceleration is estimated to be 33 gal and the 90‐percentile horizontal spectral acceleration with 5% damping ratio is 100 gal within the predominant period range. The 90‐percentile bedrock motion would generate base shear force higher than that required by the current design code, where seismic design has yet to be considered. This has not taken into account effects of local soil response that might further amplify the bedrock motion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground-motion prediction equations for interface earthquakes of M7 to M9 based on empirical data from Japan

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have a major impact on seismic hazard estimates, because they control the predicted amplitudes of ground shaking. The prediction of ground-motion amplitudes due to mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones has been hampered by a paucity of empirical ground-motion data for the very large magnitudes (moment magnitude (M) $>$ 7) of most interest to hazard analysis. Recent data from Tohoku M9.0 2011 earthquake are important in this regard, as this is the largest well-recorded subduction event, and the only such event with sufficient data to enable a clear separation of the overall source, path and site effects. In this study, we use strong-ground-motion records from the M9 Tohoku event to derive an event-specific GMPE. We then extend this M9 GMPE to represent the shaking from other M $>$ 7 interface events in Japan by adjusting the source term. We focus on events in Japan to reduce ambiguity that results when combining data in different regions having different source, path and site effect attributes. Source levels (adjustment factors) for other Japanese events are determined as the average residuals of ground-motions with respect to the Tohoku GMPE, keeping all other coefficients fixed. The mean residuals (source terms) scale most steeply with magnitude at the lower frequencies; this is in accord with expectations based on overall source-scaling concepts. Interpolating source terms over the magnitude range of 7.0–9.0, we produce a GMPE for large interface events of M7–M9, for NEHRP B/C boundary site conditions (time-averaged shear-wave velocity of 760 m/s over the top 30 m) in both fore-arc and back-arc regions of Japan. We show how these equations may be adjusted to account for the deeper soil profiles (for the same value of $\hbox {V}_\mathrm{S30})$ in western North America. The proposed GMPE predicts lower motions at very long periods, higher motions at short periods, and similar motions at intermediate periods, relative to the simulation-based GMPE model of Atkinson and Macias (2009) for the Cascadia subduction zone.     

Seismic response of reduced micropolar elastic half-space

This paper explores reduced micropolar theory to simulate ground motion during an earthquake. In this theory, rotational motions are kinematically independent of translational motions. Analytical expressions for ground displacement and rotational motions due to a buried seismic source are presented in this paper. This theory requires two additional material constants which characterise the microstructure of the medium compared with linear elastic theory. Ground motions are simulated for an earthquake of magnitude (M _w) 5.0. The sensitivity of ground motion to these new material constants is reported. It is observed that rotations are sensitive to microstructure of the medium. A comparison with recorded rotations of the M _w 5.2 Izu peninsula, Japan event is also presented in this article.     

Large-scale aseismic creep in the areas of the strong earthquakes revealed from the GRACE data on the time variations of the Earth’s gravity field

The refinement of the accuracy and resolution of the monthly global gravity field models from the GRACE satellite mission, together with the accumulation of more than a decade-long series of these models, enabled us to reveal the processes that occur in the regions of large (M_w≥8) earthquakes that have not been studied previously. The previous research into the time variations of the gravity field in the regions of the giant earthquakes, such as the seismic catastrophes in Sumatra (2004) and Chile (2010), and the Tohoku mega earthquake in Japan (2011), covered the coseismic gravity jump followed by the long postseismic changes reaching almost the same amplitude. The coseismic gravity jumps resulting from the lower-magnitude events are almost unnoticeable. However, we have established a long steady growth of gravity anomalies after a number of such earthquakes. For instance, in the regions of the subduction earthquakes, the growth of the positive gravity anomaly above the oceanic trench was revealed after two events with magnitudes M_w=8.5 in the Sumatra region (the Nias earthquake of March 2005 and the Bengkulu event of September 2007 near the southern termination of Sumatra Island), after the earthquake with M_w=8.5 on Hokkaido in September 2007, a doublet Simushir earthquake with the magnitudes M_w = 8.3 and 8.1 in the Kuriles in November 2006 and January 2007, and after the earthquake off the Samoa Island in September 2009 (M_w=8.1). The steady changes in the gravity field have also been recorded after the earthquake in the Sichuan region (May 2008, M_w = 8.0) and after the doublet event with magnitudes 8.6 and 8.2, which occurred in the Wharton Basin of the Indian Ocean on April 11, 2012. The detailed analysis of the growth of the positive anomaly in gravity after the Simushir earthquake of November 2006 is presented. The growth started a few months after the event synchronously with the seismic activation on the downdip extension of the coseismically ruptured fault plane zone. The data demonstrating the increasing depth of the aftershocks since March 2007 and the approximately simultaneous change in the direction and average velocity of the horizontal surface displacements at the sites of the regional GPS network indicate that this earthquake induced postseismic displacements in a huge area extending to depths below 100 km. The total displacement since the beginning of the growth of the gravity anomaly up to July 2012 is estimated at 3.0 m in the upper part of the plate’s contact and 1.5 m in the lower part up to a depth of 100 km. With allowance for the size of the region captured by the deformations, the released total energy is equivalent to the earthquake with the magnitude M_w = 8.5. In our opinion, the growth of the gravity anomaly in these regions indicates a large-scale aseismic creep over the areas much more extensive than the source zone of the earthquake. These processes have not been previously revealed by the ground-based techniques. Hence, the time series of the GRACE gravity models are an important source of the new data about the locations and evolution of the locked segments of the subduction zones and their seismic potential.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion for typical Australian intra-plate earthquakes and their relationship with the recommended response spectra

Global epicentre maps show that the majority of earthquakes are inter-plate, although moderate to large earthquakes do occur intra-plate, i.e. within the plates. The seismicity of the Australian continent is typical of intra-plate environments and a magnitude M_L 6 earthquake has an average return period of about 5 years. Recordings of Australian intra-plate earthquakes are investigated here to characterise their frequency content, peak acceleration and duration.Due to lack of quality strong motion records of large intra-plate earthquakes at short distances, synthetic seismograms are commonly used for testing structural behaviour. An empirical Green's Function method (Geophys. Res. Lett., 5 (1978), 1–4; Proceedings of the Third International Microzonation Conference, Seattle, USA, vol. 1, (1982), pp. 447–458.) is chosen to simulate a large earthquake by summation in time of a number of smaller earthquakes or sub-events, each given a slightly different origin time to represent more realistically the propagation of a rupture along an assumed fault plane. In the first instance, recordings on rock of the magnitude M_L 2.3 aftershock of the 29 December 1989 Newcastle earthquake were used as sub-events to simulate the main shock of magnitude M_L 5.6. Validation studies for events recorded elsewhere in Australia are also considered.The response spectra of such synthetic events will be compared with the recommended spectra developed empirically from a statistical analysis of strong motion data for magnitude 5.4–6.5 intra-plate earthquakes recorded in other parts of the world and normalised to a peak ground velocity of 50 mm/s which is typical for a return period of 500 years in Australia (Australasian Structural Engineering Conference, Auckland, New Zealand, (1998), pp. 439–444.). Preliminary results from this comparison with the response spectra recommended for the Building Code of Australia show that the synthetic waveforms produced by this method are realistic and can be used to represent ground motion during typical Australian intra-plate earthquakes.     

Seismic Subduction of the Nazca Ridge as Shown by the 1996–97 Peru Earthquakes

—By rupturing more than half of the shallow subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge, the great November 12, 1996 Peruvian earthquake contradicts the hypothesis that oceanic ridges subduct aseismically. The mainshock’s rupture has a length of about 200 km and has an average slip of about 1.4 m. Its moment is 1.5 × 10²⁸ dyne-cm and the corresponding M _w is 8.0. The mainshock registered three major episodes of moment release as shown by a finite fault inversion of teleseismically recorded broadband body waves. About 55% of the mainshock’s total moment release occurred south of the Nazca Ridge, and the remaining moment release occurred at the southern half of the subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge. The rupture south of the Nazca Ridge was elongated parallel to the ridge axis and extended from a shallow depth to about 65 km depth. Because the axis of the Nazca Ridge is at a high angle to the plate convergence direction, the subducting Nazca Ridge has a large southwards component of motion, 5 cm/yr parallel to the coast. The 900–1200 m relief of the southwards sweeping Nazca Ridge is interpreted to act as a "rigid indenter," causing the greatest coupling south of the ridge’s leading edge and leading to the large observed slip. The mainshock and aftershock hypocenters were relocated using a new procedure that simultaneously inverts local and teleseismic data. Most aftershocks were within the outline of the Nazca Ridge. A three-month delayed aftershock cluster occurred at the northern part of the subducting Nazca Ridge. Aftershocks were notably lacking at the zone of greatest moment release, to the south of the Nazca Ridge. However, a lone foreshock at the southern end of this zone, some 140 km downstrike of the mainshock’s epicenter, implies that conditions existed for rupture into that zone. The 1996 earthquake ruptured much of the inferred source zone of the M _w 7.9–8.2 earthquake of 1942, although the latter was a slightly larger earthquake. The rupture zone of the 1996 earthquake is immediately north of the seismic gap left by the great earthquakes (M _w ～8.8–9.1) of 1868 and 1877. The M _w 8.0 Antofagasta earthquake of 1995 occurred at the southern end of this great seismic gap. The M _w 8.2 deep-focus Bolivian earthquake of 1994 occurred directly downdip of the 1868 portion of that gap. The recent occurrence of three significant earthquakes on the periphery of the great seismic gap of the 1868 and 1877 events, among other factors, may signal an increased seismic potential for that zone.     

俯冲带地震动特征及其衰减规律探讨

随着我国南海不断开发建设,海洋工程的抗震问题日益受到重视.我国南海东部区域位于大陆板块与海洋板块共同作用的俯冲带地区,地震活动频繁,震级较大,潜在地震对南海开发建设有重要影响.为了研究俯冲带地震的地震动特征及其衰减规律,本文基于实际俯冲带地震数据,并结合数值模拟方法,分析和探讨了俯冲带板内、板缘地震与浅地壳地震的地震动特征和衰减规律的差异.研究结果表明:俯冲带地震动存在区域性差异,在地震动衰减特征方面,同一区域的俯冲带板缘地震要比浅地壳地震衰减慢,俯冲带板内地震要比浅地壳地震衰减得快;数值模拟分析不同深度海水对海底地震动的影响表明,海底地震动水平分量几乎不受海水介质的影响,但是竖向分量随海水深度的增加有减小的趋势.最终,基于数值模拟和经验关系的混合方法建立了南海俯冲带地震动衰减关系模型,其结果可为海域区划等相关研究和海域工程建设提供参考.     

Lessons from the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake for prediction of long-period strong ground motions and sloshing damage to oil storage tanks

The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M _w 8.0) in northern Japan generated large-amplitude long-period (4–8 s) ground motions in the Yufutsu sedimentary basin, causing severe damage to seven large oil storage tanks with floating roof structures because of severe sloshing of oil. The 30,000–40,000-m³ tanks having suffered the severe damage such as fires and sinking of floating roofs experienced the sloshing with large amplitudes exceeding 3 m in which the fundamental mode was predominant. The second mode of sloshing was also excited in the 110,000-m³ tanks in which their floating roofs sank into oil, indicating that the higher modes of sloshing as well as the fundamental mode should be considered in damage prediction. The strong ground motion recordings demonstrated the earthquake dependency of predominant periods and the substantial spatial variation of the long-period shaking observed within the Yufutsu basin, meaning the necessity of source- and site-specific prediction of long-period strong ground motions. The two-dimensional numerical modeling suggested the importance of detailed structures of soft near-surface sediments as well as deep basin structure for accurate prediction of long-period strong ground motions in deep sedimentary basins.     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

The February 28, 2006 Tiab earthquake, Mw 6.0: Implications for tectonics of the transition between the Zagros continental collision and the Makran subduction zone

The 28 February, 2006 Tiab earthquake (M_w 6.0), is the first earthquake to have occurred in the transition zone between the Zagros continental collision and the Makran subduction zone for which the aftershock sequence is recorded by a temporary local seismic network. The epicentral distribution of the aftershocks is diffuse and we cannot define a simple alignment at the surface. The depth of the aftershocks increases gently northward and they are primarily concentrated between 15 and 21 km depth, implying a deeper seismogenic layer than the Zagros. Very low-angle thrust faulting deduced from this local study supports thrusting of the Arabian plate beneath central Iran at the southeastern end of the Zagros as suggested previously based on teleseismic data. The focal mechanism of the main shock indicates a thrust mechanism similar to that of other strong earthquakes in this region, while most of the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are dominantly strike-slip. We propose that the strike-slip mechanisms belong to right-lateral fault systems that accommodate differential motion at the transition between the Zagros collision zone and the Makran subduction zone. If so, this suggests that the convergence between Arabia and central Iran is at present accommodated along the transition zone by a partitioning process.     

Geologic Setting, Field Survey and Modeling of the Chimbote, Northern Peru, Tsunami of 21 February 1996

—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M _w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M _w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M _w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M _w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake."     

Recent crustal deformation and the earthquake cycle along the Ecuador-Colombia subduction zone

Recent results from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show deformation along the coast of Ecuador and Colombia that can be linked to the rupture zone of the earthquake in 1979. A 3D elastic boundary element model is used to simulate crustal deformation observed by GPS campaigns in 1991, 1994, 1996, and 1998. Deformation in Ecuador can be explained best by 50% apparent locking on the subduction interface. Although there have not been any historic large earthquakes (M_w>7) south of the 1906 earthquake rupture zone, 50% apparent elastic locking is necessary to model the deformation observed there. In Colombia, only 30% apparent elastic locking is occurring along the subduction interface in the 1979 earthquake rupture zone (M_w 8.2), and no elastic locking is necessary to explain the crustal deformation observed at two GPS sites north of there. There is no evidence from seismicity or plate geometry that plate coupling on the subduction zone is reduced in Colombia. However, simple viscoelastic models suggest that the apparent reduction in elastic locking can be explained entirely by the response of a viscous upper mantle to the 1979 earthquake. These results suggest that elastic strain accumulation is occurring evenly throughout the study area, but postseismic relaxation masks the true total strain rate.     

Equations for the Estimation of Strong Ground Motions from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Using Data from Europe and the Middle East: Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration

This article presents equations for the estimation of horizontal strong ground motions caused by shallow crustal earthquakes with magnitudes M_w 5 and distance to the surface projection of the fault less than 100km. These equations were derived by weighted regression analysis, used to remove observed magnitude-dependent variance, on a set of 595 strong-motion records recorded in Europe and the Middle East. Coefficients are included to model the effect of local site effects and faulting mechanism on the observed ground motions. The equations include coefficients to model the observed magnitude-dependent decay rate. The main findings of this study are that: short-period ground motions from small and moderate magnitude earthquakes decay faster than the commonly assumed 1/r, the average effect of differing faulting mechanisms is not large and corresponds to factors between 0.8 (normal and odd) and 1.3 (thrust) with respect to strike-slip motions and that the average long-period amplification caused by soft soil deposits is about 2.6 over those on rock sites. Disappointingly the standard deviations associated with the derived equations are not significantly lower than those found in previous studies.     

纪念古浪8级大震九十周年——暨对特大地震的研究讨论

置甘肃古浪8级地震发生90周年之际,本文用几种方法回顾性地讨论了特大地震的预测问题。分别用块体交界带指标、高山峰指标探讨了1920年海原8.5级地震发生的位置,并以这两个指标讨论了1927年古浪8级大震发生的位置。从国内某些大震25年周期的相关性和太阳活动峰年讨论了1927年古浪8级大震的发生年份。这些回顾性的指标研究对今后地震动、地震风险区划和预测大地震有一定的参考价值。