Uncertainty in levee heights and its effect on the spatial pattern of flood hazard in a floodplain

Levees are not usually built to a uniform height due to the varying priority of protecting urban and agricultural lands and they are often maintained in segments. Ad hoc alteration of the heights of these segments may aggravate flood conditions. Alterations lead to complex feedback loops in velocity and depth of water that are difficult to predict. A large number of possible configurations of the levee segments renders a deterministic modelling approach ineffective. The current analysis, based on a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model involving 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of randomly varying levee heights in segments, presents a methodology of dealing with the effect of uncertainty in levee heights on the inundation pattern in a probabilistic framework. Spatially distributed model outcomes include the likelihood of inundation, range and standard deviation of flood depths and maximum speed of water. The results indicate the necessity of adopting a probabilistic approach for robust flood hazard assessment when dealing with levee segments with uncertain heights.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich     

Attribution of runoff change in the alpine basin: a case study of the Heihe Upstream Basin,China

Quantifying the relative contributions of different factors to runoff change is helpful for basin management, especially in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The effect of snow change on runoff is seldom evaluated. We attribute the runoff change in the Heihe Upstream Basin (HUB), an alpine basin in China, using two approaches: a snowmelt-based water balance model and the Budyko framework. Results from these approaches show good consistency. Precipitation accounts for 58% of the increasing runoff. The contribution of land-cover change seems unremarkable for the HUB as a whole, where land-cover change has a major effect on runoff in each sub-basin, but its positive effect on increasing runoff in sub-basins 1 and 3 is offset by the negative effect in sub-basin 2. Snow change plays an essential role in each sub-basin, with a contribution rate of around 30%. The impact of potential evapotranspiration is almost negligible.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China

The magnitude, occurrence rate and occurrence timing of floods in the Poyang Lake basin were analysed. The flood series were acquired by annual and seasonal maximum flow (AMF) sampling and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling. Nonstationarity and uncertainty were analysed using kernel density estimation and the bootstrap resampling methods. Using the relationships between flood indices and climate indices, i.e. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the potential causes of flooding were investigated. The results indicate that (1) the magnitudes of annual and seasonal AMF- and POT-based sampled floods generally exhibit an increasing tendency; (2) the highest occurrence rates of floods identified were during the 1990s, when the flood-affected crop area, flood-damaged crop area and crop failure area reached the highest levels; and (3) ENSO and IOD are the major climate indices that significantly correlate with the magnitude and frequency of floods of the following year.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen     

Correcting the TRMM rainfall product for hydrological modelling in sparsely-gauged mountainous basins

This study developed a correction approach to improve the rainfall field estimation using the TRMM rainfall product in a sparsely-gauged mountainous basin. First, Thiessen polygons were generated to define the measurement domain of each raingauge. Second, the rainfall of TRMM pixels in each Thiessen polygon was corrected using a benchmark method based on the difference between the monthly rainfall estimated by a raingauge and the TRMM pixel that possessed a gauge station (referred to as a gauged pixel). Third, the rainfall values in the gauged pixels were adjusted to the weighted average value of the gauge rainfall and corrected pixel rainfall. Finally, the rainfall in the non-gauged TRMM pixels was corrected as the sum of two terms. The first term is the adjusted rainfall in the corresponding gauged pixel in the same Thiessen polygon, and the second term is the rainfall (after benchmark correction) difference between the current pixel and the gauged pixel. Our results indicate that the corrected rainfall data outperforms the original TRMM product in the simulations of moderate and low flows and outperforms the sparse raingauges in the simulations of both peak and low flows.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Trend analysis using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for long-term precipitation (1851–2006) over India

This study is an attempt to determine the trends in monthly, annual and monsoon total precipitation series over India by applying linear regression, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The linear regression test was applied on five consecutive classical 30-year climate periods and a long-term precipitation series (1851–2006) to detect changes. The sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was applied to identify the temporal variation in trend. Wavelet transform is a relatively new tool for trend analysis in hydrology. Comparison studies were carried out between decomposed series by DWT and original series. Furthermore, visualization of extreme and contributing events was carried out using the wavelet spectrum at different threshold values. The results showed that there are significant positive trends for annual and monsoon precipitation series in North Mountainous India (zone NMI) and North East India (NEI), whereas negative trends were detected when considering India as whole.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae     

Improvement and comparative assessment of a hydrological modelling approach on 20 catchments of various sizes under different climate conditions

Assessing water resources is an important issue, especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we propose a modelling approach based on the physical principle of least action. We present new hypotheses to develop the model further, to widen its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied on 20 sub-catchments in Africa and the USA. Its performance was compared with two well-known lumped conceptual models, GR4J and HBV. The model could be successfully calibrated and validated. In calibration, GR4J performed better, while other models had similar performance. In validation, MODHYPMA and GR4J performed similarly and better than HBV. The parameter λ has medium sensitivity while parameters λ and TX have low sensitivity. The parameter uncertainty for MODHYPMA, analysed using the GLUE methodology, was higher during high flows but with good p and r factors.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Detection of trends in the 7-day sustained low-flow time series of Irish rivers

A combination of statistical hypothesis testing methods (Mann-Whitney, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho) and visual exploratory analysis were used to investigate trends in Irish 7-day sustained low-flow (7SLF) series possibly driven by changes in summer rainfall patterns. River flow data from 33 gauging stations covering most major Irish rivers were analysed, after excluding catchments where low flows are influenced by significant human interventions. A statistically significant increasing trend in the 7SLF series was identified by all three tests at eight gauging stations; in contrast, a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified by all three tests at four stations. The stations with increasing trends are mainly located within the western half of the country, while there is no particular spatial clustering of the stations showing a decreasing trend. Further analysis suggests that the increasing trend in the 7SLF time series persists regardless of the starting year of analysis. However, the decreasing trend occurs only when years prior to 1970 are included in the analysis, and disappears, or is reversed, if only the data from 1970 and onwards are considered. There is strong evidence that the direction of the trends in the 7SLF series is determined mainly by trends in total summer rainfall amounts, i.e. is linked to weather.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

River temperature forecasting: case study for Little Southwest Miramichi River (New Brunswick,Canada)

River temperature models play an increasingly important role in the management of fisheries and aquatic resources. Among river temperature models, forecasting models remain relatively unused compared to water temperature simulation models. However, water temperature forecasting is extremely important for in-season management of fisheries, especially when short-term forecasts (a few days) are required. In this study, forecast and simulation models were applied to the Little Southwest Miramichi River (New Brunswick, Canada), where water temperatures can regularly exceed 25–29°C during summer, necessitating associated fisheries closures. Second- and third-order autoregressive models (AR2, AR3) were calibrated and validated using air temperature as the exogenous variable to predict minimum, mean and maximum daily water temperatures. These models were then used to predict river temperatures in forecast mode (1-, 2- and 3-day forecasts using real-time data) and in simulation mode (using only air temperature as input). The results showed that the models performed better when used to forecast rather than simulate water temperatures. The AR3 model slightly outperformed the AR2 in the forecasting mode, with root mean square errors (RMSE) generally between 0.87°C and 1.58°C. However, in the simulation mode, the AR2 slightly outperformed the AR3 model (1.25°C < RMSE < 1.90°C). One-day forecast models performed the best (RMSE ~ 1°C) and model performance decreased as time lag increased (RMSE close to 1.5°C after 3 days). The study showed that marked improvement in the modelling can be accomplished using forecasting models compared to water temperature simulations, especially for short-term forecasts.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Spatiotemporal variability in hydrochemistry of shallow groundwater in a small pre‐alpine catchment: The importance of landscape elements

Topography and landscape characteristics affect the storage and release of water and, thus, groundwater dynamics and chemistry. Quantification of catchment scale variability in groundwater chemistry and groundwater dynamics may therefore help to delineate different groundwater types and improve our understanding of which parts of the catchment contribute to streamflow. We sampled shallow groundwater from 34 to 47 wells and streamflow at seven locations in a 20‐ha steep mountainous catchment in the Swiss pre‐Alps, during nine baseflow snapshot campaigns. The spatial variability in electrical conductivity, stable water isotopic composition, and major and trace ion concentrations was large and for almost all parameters larger than the temporal variability. Concentrations of copper, zinc, and lead were highest at sites that were relatively dry, whereas concentrations of manganese and iron were highest at sites that had persistent shallow groundwater levels. The major cation and anion concentrations were only weakly correlated to individual topographic or hydrodynamic characteristics. However, we could distinguish four shallow groundwater types based on differences from the catchment average concentrations: riparian zone‐like groundwater, hillslopes and areas with small upslope contributing areas, deeper groundwater, and sites characterized by high magnesium and sulfate concentrations that likely reflect different bedrock material. Baseflow was not an equal mixture of the different groundwater types. For the majority of the campaigns, baseflow chemistry most strongly resembled riparian‐like groundwater for all but one subcatchment. However, the similarity to the hillslope‐type groundwater was larger shortly after snowmelt, reflecting differences in hydrologic connectivity. We expect that similar groundwater types can be found in other catchments with steep hillslopes and wet areas with shallow groundwater levels and recommend sampling of groundwater from all landscape elements to understand groundwater chemistry and groundwater contributions to streamflow.     

Advected fields in maps: II. Dynamo action in the stretch–fold–shear map

The growth of magnetic field is considered in the stretch–fold–shear map in the limit of weak diffusion. Numerical results are given for insulating, perfectly conducting and periodic boundary conditions. The resulting eigenvalue branches and magnetic fields are related to eigenvalue branches for perfect dynamo action, obtained for zero diffusion using a complex variable formulation.

The effect of diffusion on these perfect dynamo modes depends on their structure, growth rate and the diffusive boundary conditions employed. In some cases, the effect of diffusion is a small perturbation, giving a correction going to zero in the limit of weak diffusion, with a scaling exponent given analytically. In other cases weak diffusion can entirely destroy a perfect dynamo branch. Diffusive boundary layers can also generate entirely new branches.

These different cases are elucidated, and within the framework of the asymptotic approximations used (which do not constitute a rigorous proof), it is seen that for all three boundary conditions employed, the stretch–fold–shear map is a fast dynamo.     

Physical and coupled fully three-dimensional numerical modeling of pressurized bottom outlet flushing processes in reservoirs

Sediment deposition in reservoirs is an important research topic in engineering practice. Reservoir sedimentation has the potential to affect ood levels, drainage for agricultural land, pump station and hydropower operation as well as navigation. This paper describes the development of a coupled fully three-dimensional (3D) numerical model for the prediction of the local sediment ushing scour upstream of the bottom outlet. The presented numerical model solves the Navier-Stokes equations in conjunction with the k- turbulence model which includes both sediment transport and hydrodynamic parameters. The proposed coupled fully 3D numerical model is used to simulate experimental tests based on non-cohesive sediment. The geometric features of the scour hole (temporal and spatial hole devel- opment) upstream of the bottom outlet were reasonably well predicted compared to the experimental data. Furthermore, the velocity eld upstream of the bottom outlet was in good agreement with mea- surements. The proposed numerical model for bottom outlet ushing was, therefore, validated because of its ability to accurately predict the scour hole development during the ushing process. The proposed numerical model can be considered reliable provided that the model is correctly calibrated and set up to re ect the conditions of a particular case study.     

Contributions of bedrock groundwater to the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes in weathered granitic headwater catchments

We examined the contributions of bedrock groundwater to the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes in weathered granitic headwater catchments by conducting detailed hydrochemical observations in five catchments that ranged from zero to second order. End‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) was performed to identify the geographical sources of stream water. Throughfall, hillslope groundwater, shallow bedrock groundwater, and deep bedrock groundwater were identified as end members. The contribution of each end member to storm runoff differed among the catchments because of the differing quantities of riparian groundwater, which was recharged by the bedrock groundwater prior to rainfall events. Among the five catchments, the contribution of throughfall was highest during both baseflow and storm flow in a zero‐order catchment with little contribution from the bedrock groundwater to the riparian reservoir. In zero‐order catchments with some contribution from bedrock groundwater, stream water was dominated by shallow bedrock groundwater during baseflow, but it was significantly influenced by hillslope groundwater during storms. In the first‐order catchment, stream water was dominated by shallow bedrock groundwater during storms as well as baseflow periods. In the second‐order catchment, deeper bedrock groundwater than that found in the zero‐order and first‐order catchments contributed to stream water in all periods, except during large storm events. These results suggest that bedrock groundwater influences the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes by affecting the linkages of geomorphic units such as hillslopes, riparian zones, and stream channels. Our results highlight the need for a three‐dimensional approach that considers bedrock groundwater flow when studying the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework to facilitate development and testing of image-based river velocimetry algorithms

Image-based methods have compelling, demonstrated potential for characterizing flow fields in rivers, but algorithms like particle image velocimetry (PIV) must be further tested and improved to enable more effective use of these techniques. This paper presents a framework designed for this exact purpose: Simulating Hydraulics and Images for Velocimetry Evaluation and Refinement (SHIVER). The approach involves coupling a hydrodynamic model with a synthetic particle generator to advect particles between frames, as dictated by local velocity vectors and thus construct a plausible image sequence specific to the reach of interest. The resulting time series can then be used as input to a velocimetry algorithm to compare image-derived estimates with known (modelled) velocities to perform an exhaustive, spatially distributed accuracy assessment. As an example application of SHIVER, we examined the effects of interrogation area (IA) size, frame rate, flow velocity, and image sequence duration on the performance of a standard PIV algorithm. This analysis indicated that image-derived velocities were generally in close agreement with those from the flow model (root mean square error <10% and mean bias <3%), except when small IAs were coupled with low frame rates. Velocity estimates were most accurate for the lowest modelled discharge ( $$ at baseflow) and became less reliable as the mean flow velocity increased ( $$ for an intermediate discharge and $$ at bankfull). Accuracy was essentially independent of image sequence duration, implying that long occupations might not be necessary. Errors were concentrated along channel margins, where PIV-based velocities tended to be greater than those from the flow model. Small IAs led to underpredictions of velocity, while larger IAs led to overpredictions. SHIVER is highly modular and could be updated to make use of different hydrodynamic models or image simulators. The framework could also facilitate more thorough sensitivity analyses and comparison of various velocimetry algorithms.