Development of a one-parameter variable source area runoff model for ungauged basins

This research develops a one-parameter model of saturated source area dynamics and the spatial distribution of soil moisture. The single required parameter is the maximum soil moisture deficit within the catchment. The concept behind the development of the model comes from the fact that the complexity of topographically-driven runoff generation can be reduced through the use of geomorphological scaling relations. The scaling formulation allows the prediction of the dynamics of saturated source areas as a function of basin-wide soil moisture state. This model offers a number of potential advantages. Firstly, the model parameter is independent of topographic index distribution and its associated scale effects. Secondly, it may be possible to measure this single parameter using field measurements or perhaps remote sensing, which gives the model significant potential for application in ungauged basins. Finally, the fact that this parameter is a physical characteristic of the basin, estimation of this parameter avoids regionalization and parameter transferability problems. The model is tested using rainfall–runoff data from the 10.4 ha experimental catchment known as Tarrawara in Australia, the 37 km² Town Creek catchment in U.S.A., and the 620 km² Balaphi and the 850 km² Likhu sub-catchments of the Koshi river in Nepal. In sub-catchments of Koshi river, the simulation results compare favorably against the calibrated TOPMODEL both in terms of direct runoff and the spatial distribution of soil moisture state. In the Tarrawara and Town Brook catchments, simulation results compare favorably against observed storm runoff using all observed data, without calibration.     

Characterization of regional variability of seasonal water balance within Omo-Ghibe River Basin,Ethiopia

In this study we quantify the spatial variability of seasonal water balances within the Omo-Ghibe River Basin in Ethiopia using methods proposed within the Prediction in Ungauged Basins initiative. Our analysis consists of: (1) application of the rainfall–runoff model HBV-Light to several sub-catchments for which runoff data are available, and (2) estimation of water balances in the remaining ungauged catchments through application of the model with regionalized parameters. The analyses of the resulting water balance outcomes reveal that the seasonal water balance across the Omo-Ghibe Basin is driven by precipitation regimes that change with latitude, from being strongly “seasonal” in the north to “precipitation spread throughout the year, but with a definite wetter season” in the south. The basin is divided into two distinct regions based on patterns of seasonal water balance and, in particular, seasonal patterns of soil moisture storage.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis     

Regionalisation of hydrological responses under land-use change and variable data quality

ABSTRACT

Estimating river flows at ungauged sites is generally recognised as an important area of research. In countries or regions with rapid land development and sparse hydrological gauging networks, three particular challenges may arise—data scarcity, data quality, and hydrological non-stationarity. Using data from 44 gauged sub-catchments of the upper Ping catchment in northern Thailand from the period 1995–2006, three relevant flow response indices (runoff coefficient, base flow index and seasonal elasticity of flow) were regionalised by regression against available catchment properties. The runoff coefficient was the most successfully regionalised, followed by base flow index and lastly the seasonal elasticity. The non-stationarity (represented by the differences between two 6-year sub-periods) was significant both in the flow response indices and in land use indices; however relationships between the two sets of indices were weak. The regression equations derived from regionalisation were not helpful in predicting the non-stationarity in the flow indices except somewhat for the runoff coefficient. A partly subjective data quality scoring system was devised, and showed the clear influence of rainfall and flow data quality on regionalisation uncertainty. Recommendations towards improving data support for hydrological regionalisation in Thailand include more relevant soils databases, improved records of abstractions and investment in the gauge network. Widening of the regionalisation beyond the upper Ping and renewed efforts at using remotely sensed rainfall data are other possible ways forward.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Wagener     

Trend analysis of nutrient loadings in a large prairie catchment

Nutrient loadings in many river catchments continue to increase due to rapid expansion of agriculture, urban and industrial development, and population growth. Nutrient enrichment of water bodies has intensified eutrophication which degrades water quality and ecosystem health. In this study, we carried out a trend analysis of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads in the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) catchment using a novel approach to analyse nutrient time series. Seasonal analysis of trends at each of the water quality stations was performed to determine the relationships between annual flow regimes and nutrient loads in the catchment, in particular, the influence of the high spring runoff on nutrient export. Decadal analysis was also performed to determine the long-term relationships of nutrients with anthropogenic changes in the catchment. Although it was found that seasonal and historical variability of nutrient load trends is mainly determined by streamflow regime changes, there is evidence that increases in nitrogen concentration can also be attributed to anthropogenic changes.     

The Baker Creek Research Watershed: Streamflow data highlighting the behaviour of an intermittent Canadian Shield stream through a wet–dry–wet cycle

Baker Creek drains water from subarctic Canadian Shield terrain comprised of a mix of exposed Precambrian bedrock, lakes, open black spruce forest and peat filled depressions. Research in the catchment has focused on hydrological processes at the hillslope and catchment scales. Streamflow is gauged from several diverse sub-catchments ranging in size from 9 to 155 km². The period of record (2003–2019) of streamflow from these sub-catchments extends from 12 to 17 years, and these data are the focus of this note. Such data are unique in this remote region. 2003–2019 was a period that included both historic wet and dry conditions. Observations during such a diversity of conditions are helping to improve understanding of how stream networks that drain this landscape expand and contract in response to short and long hydroclimatic cycles. These data from a distinctly cold and dry region of low relief, thin soils, exposed bedrock and permafrost are a valuable contribution to the global diversity of research catchment data.     

High spatial-resolution monitoring to investigate nitrate export and its drivers in a mesoscale river catchment along an anthropogenic land-cover gradient

Nitrate monitoring is commonly conducted with low-spatial resolution, only at the outlet or at a small number of selected locations. As a result, the information about spatial variations in nitrate export and its drivers is scarce. In this study, we present results of high-spatial resolution monitoring conducted between 2012 and 2017 in 65 sub-catchments in an Alpine mesoscale river catchment characterized by a land-use gradient. We combined stable isotope techniques with Bayesian mixing models and geostatistical methods to investigate nitrate export and its main drivers, namely, microbial N turnover processes, land use and hydrological conditions. In the investigated sub-catchments, mean values of NO₃⁻ concentrations and its isotope signatures (δ¹⁵N_NO3 and δ¹⁸O_NO3) varied from 2.6 to 26.7 mg L⁻¹, from −1.3‰ to 13.1‰, and from −0.4‰ to 10.1‰, respectively. In this study, land use was an important driver for nitrate export. Very strong and strong positive correlations were found between percentages of agricultural land cover and δ¹⁵N_NO3, and NO₃⁻ concentration, respectively. Mean proportional contributions of NO₃⁻ sources varied spatially and seasonally, and followed land-use patterns. The mean contribution of manure and sewage was much higher in the catchments characterized by a high percentage of agricultural and urban land cover comparing to forested sub-catchments. Specific NO₃⁻ loads were strongly correlated with specific discharge and moderately correlated with NO₃⁻ concentrations. The nitrate isotope and concentration analysis results suggest that nitrate from external sources is stored and accumulated in soil storage pools. Nitrification of reduced nitrogen species in those pools plays the most important role for the N-dynamics in the Erlauf river catchment. Consequently, nitrification of reduced N sources was the main nitrate source except for a number of sub-catchments dominated by agricultural land use. In the Erlauf catchment, denitrification plays only a minor role in controlling NO₃⁻ export on a regional scale.     

Machine learning based identification of dominant controls on runoff dynamics

Hydrological models used for flood prediction in ungauged catchments are commonly fitted to regionally transferred data. The key issue of this procedure is to identify hydrologically similar catchments. Therefore, the dominant controls for the process of interest have to be known. In this study, we applied a new machine learning based approach to identify the catchment characteristics that can be used to identify the active processes controlling runoff dynamics. A random forest (RF) regressor has been trained to estimate the drainage velocity parameters of a geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) in ungauged catchments, based on regionally available data. We analyzed the learning procedure of the algorithm and identified preferred donor catchments for each ungauged catchment. Based on the obtained machine learning results from catchment grouping, a classification scheme for drainage network characteristics has been derived. This classification scheme has been applied in a flood forecasting case study. The results demonstrate that the RF could be trained properly with the selected donor catchments to successfully estimate the required GIUH parameters. Moreover, our results showed that drainage network characteristics can be used to identify the influence of geomorphological dispersion on the dynamics of catchment response.     

Quantifying seasonal export and retention of nutrients in West European lowland rivers at catchment scale

To set accurate critical values for the protection of lakes and coastal areas, it is crucial to know the seasonal variation of nutrient exports from rivers. This article presents an improved method for estimating export and in‐stream nutrient retention and its seasonal variation. For 13 lowland river catchments in Western Europe, inputs to surface water and exports were calculated on a monthly basis. The catchments varied in size (21 to 486 km²), while annual in‐stream retention ranged from 23 to 84% for N and 39 to 72% for P. A novel calculation method is presented that quantifies monthly exports from lowland rivers based on an annual load to the river system. Inputs in the calculation are annual emission to the surface waters, average monthly river discharge, average monthly water temperature and fraction of surface water area in the catchment. The method accounts for both seasonal variation of emission to the surface water and seasonal in‐stream retention. The agreement between calculated values and calibration data was high (N: r² = 0·93; p < 0·001 and P: r² = 0·81; p < 0·001). Validation of the model also showed good results with model efficiencies for the separate catchments ranging from 31 to 95% (average 76%). This indicates that exports of nitrogen and phosphorus on a monthly basis can be calculated with few input data for a range of West European lowland rivers. Further analysis showed that retention in summer is higher than that in winter, resulting in lower summer nutrient concentrations than that calculated with an average annual input. This implies that accurate evaluation of critical thresholds for eutrophication effects must account for seasonal variation in hydrology and nutrient loading. Our quantification method thus may improve the modelling of eutrophication effects in standing waters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELLING THE IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON WATER QUALITY IN AGRICULTURAL CATCHMENTS

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological pathways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance–decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictions in ungauged basins: an approach for regionalization of hydrological models considering the probability distribution of model parameters

Regionalization of model parameters by developing appropriate functional relationship between the parameters and basin characteristics is one of the potential approaches to employ hydrological models in ungauged basins. While this is a widely accepted procedure, the uniqueness of the watersheds and the equifinality of parameters bring lot of uncertainty in the simulations in ungauged basins. This study proposes a method of regionalization based on the probability distribution function of model parameters, which accounts the variability in the catchment characteristics. It is envisaged that the probability distribution function represents the characteristics of the model parameter, and when regionalized the earlier concerns can be addressed appropriately. The method employs probability distribution of parameters, derived from gauged basins, to regionalize by regressing them against the catchment attributes. These regional functions are used to develop the parameter characteristics in ungauged basins based on the catchment attributes. The proposed method is illustrated using soil water assessment tool model for an ungauged basin prediction. For this numerical exercise, eight different watersheds spanning across different climatic settings in the USA are considered. While all the basins considered in this study were gauged, one of them was assumed to be ungauged (pseudo-ungauged) in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in ungauged basin simulation. The process was repeated by considering representative basins from different climatic and landuse scenarios as pseudo-ungauged. The results of the study indicated that the ensemble simulations in the ungauged basins were closely matching with the observed streamflow. The simulation efficiency varied between 57 and 61 % in ungauged basins. The regional function was able to generate the parameter characteristics that were closely matching with the original probability distribution derived from observed streamflow data.     

Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific,Titicaca and Amazonas drainages

Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.     

Seasonal fluxes and sediment routing in tropical catchments affected by nickel mining

An important gap in the management of land erosion in mining-affected areas is the understanding of the entire sediment routing system and the links between sources and storage at the catchment scale. In this study, we examine sediment delivery and its seasonality in the nickel mining-affected Santa Cruz and Pamalabawan catchments in the Philippines. We monitored discharge, suspended sediment concentrations and suspended sediment loads across 13 sub-catchments with contrasting degrees of mining influence from June 2018 to July 2019. First, we show the importance of the size of the area that has been physically disturbed within our sub-catchments, with as little as 10–22% of relative disturbance area being enough to generate four-fold to eight-fold increase in the sediment yield relative to less disturbed and pristine areas. We found that sub-catchments with > 10% disturbance exhibit the highest sediment yields (15.5 ± 44.7 t km⁻² d⁻¹) compared with sub-catchments with < 10% disturbance (3.6 ± 17.7 t km⁻² d⁻¹) and undisturbed catchments (2.0 ± 5.7 t km⁻² d⁻¹). We also show that sediment flushing predominantly occurs in the most disturbed sub-catchments at the onset of the wet season. A small number of flood events transports the bulk of the sediment, with hysteresis effects being most pronounced in disturbed areas. Lastly, we show that floodplain sediment recycling exerts a key control on sediment delivery at both reach and catchment scales, with the relative contribution of floodplain sources to the sediment budget becoming dominant in the latter stages of the wet season- up to 89% of the total sediment export per storm event. This study highlights the importance of both degree of disturbance and sediment pathways in controlling sediment transport in mining-disturbed areas, and that considering the entire sediment routing system including intermediate stores is crucial to optimizing existing and future measures against siltation and potential contamination of trace metals and metalloids downstream of mining areas.     

Transferability of hydrological model parameter spaces in the estimation of runoff in ungauged catchments

Abstract

In this study, transferability options of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model parameter (MP) spaces were investigated to estimate ungauged catchment runoff. Three approaches were applied in the study: MP space transfer from single, neighbouring and all potential donor catchments. The model performance was evaluated by a jackknife procedure, where one catchment at a time was treated as if ungauged, and behavioural MP sets from candidate donor catchments were used to estimate the “ungauged” runoff. The results showed that ungauged catchment runoff estimation could not be guaranteed by transferring MP sets from a single physiographically nearest donor catchment. Integrating MP sets typically from one to six donor catchments supplemented the lack of effective MP sets and improved the model performance at the ungauged catchments. In addition, the analysis results revealed that the model performance converged to an average performance when the MP sets of all potential donor catchments were integrated.     

Evaluation of storage–discharge relationships and recession analysis-based distributed hourly runoff simulation in large-scale,mountainous and snow-influenced catchment

ABSTRACT

Evaluation of a recession-based “top-down” model for distributed hourly runoff simulation in macroscale mountainous catchments is rare in the literature. We evaluated such a model for a 3090 km² boreal catchment and its internal sub-catchments. The main research question is how the model performs when parameters are either estimated from streamflow recession or obtained by calibration. The model reproduced observed streamflow hydrographs (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.83) and flow duration curves. Transferability of parameters to the sub-catchments validates the performance of the model, and indicates an opportunity for prediction in ungauged sites. However, the cases of parameter estimation and calibration excluding the effects of runoff routing underestimate peak flows. The lower end of the recession and the minimum length of recession segments included are the main sources of uncertainty for parameter estimation. Despite the small number of calibrated parameters, the model is susceptible to parameter uncertainty and identifiability problems.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Carsteanu     

Regional scale nutrient modelling: exports to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area

Clearing of native vegetation and replacement with cropping and grazing systems has increased nutrient exports to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to a level many times the natural rate. We present a technique for modelling nutrient transport, based on material budgets of river systems, and use it to identify the patterns and sources of nutrients exported. The outputs of the model can then be used to help prioritise catchment areas and land uses for management and assess various management options. Hillslope erosion is the largest source of particulate nutrients because of its dominance as a sediment source and the higher nutrient concentrations on surface soils. Dissolved nutrient fractions contribute 30% of total nitrogen and 15% of total phosphorus inputs. Spatial patterns show the elevated dissolved inorganic nitrogen export in the wetter catchments, and the dominance of particulate N and P from soil erosion in coastal areas. This study has identified catchments with high levels of contribution to exports and targeting these should be a priority.     

Parameter uncertainty of the AWBM model when applied to an ungauged catchment

In this study, a quantitative assessment of uncertainty was made in connection with the calibration of Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) for both gauged and ungauged catchment cases. For the gauged catchment, five different rainfall data sets, 23 different calibration data lengths and eight different optimization techniques were adopted. For the ungauged catchment case, the optimum parameter sets obtained from the nearest gauged catchment were transposed to the ungauged catchments, and two regional prediction equations were used to estimate runoff. Uncertainties were ascertained by comparing the observed and modelled runoffs by the AWBM on the basis of different combinations of methods, model parameters and input data. The main finding from this study was that the uncertainties in the AWBM modelling outputs could vary from ?1.3% to 70% owing to different input rainfall data, ?5.7% to 11% owing to different calibration data lengths and ?6% to 0.2% owing to different optimization techniques adopted in the calibration of the AWBM. The performance of the AWBM model was found to be dominated mainly by the selection of appropriate rainfall data followed by the selection of an appropriate calibration data length and optimization algorithm. Use of relatively short data length (e.g. 3 to 6 years) in the calibration was found to generate relatively poor results. Effects of different optimization techniques on the calibration were found to be minimal. The uncertainties reported here in relation to the calibration and runoff estimation by the AWBM model are relevant to the selected study catchments, which are likely to differ for other catchments. The methodology presented in this paper can be applied to other catchments in Australia and other countries using AWBM and similar rainfall–runoff models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metals discharged during different flow conditions from a mixed agricultural‐forest catchment (NW Spain)

Metal loads were determined from water samples collected under different streamflow conditions (baseflow and storm events) in a rural catchment (NW Spain) during 4 years. A study at annual, seasonal and storm‐event scales was carried out. In all analysed scales, the export order was Fe > Al > Mn > Zn > Cu. A high inter‐annual, seasonal and storm‐event scale variability of metal load was observed. The total metal loads in stream were higher during baseflow conditions than during storm events, which only represented 4% of the duration of the study period and 25% of streamflow. During storm events, both Al and Fe loads accounted 45% of the total load of the study period, whereas Mn, Cu and Zn loads represented 42%, 33% and 24%, respectively. This highlights the role of high flows on metal export. Only four big events exported around 30% of load of each metal transported in events. At all time scales, a prevalence of export of particulate metals over dissolved metals was observed, more pronounced for Al, Fe and Mn than for Cu and Zn. The export of metals in the Corbeira catchment is influenced by runoff and, to a lesser extent, by the rainfall amount. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SUSPENDED SEDIMENT AND PARTICULATE PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT AND DELIVERY PATHWAYS IN AN ARABLE CATCHMENT,GELBÆK STREAM,DENMARK

Reliable quantification of suspended sediment (SS) and particulate phosphorus (PP) transport, and identification of the various delivery pathways at the catchment level, is an important and necessary aid to appropriate catchment management. In this study we measured storm event, seasonal and annual losses of SS and PP from a Danish arable catchment, Gelbæk Stream, using a multisampling strategy. SS losses for the study years May 1993–April 1994 and May 1994–April 1995 ranged from 71 to 88 kg ha⁻¹, while PP losses ranged from 0·32 to 0·36 kg P ha⁻¹. In both cases losses mainly occurred during infrequent storm events. In comparison with intensive storm sampling, infrequent (fortnightly) sampling underestimated annual transport during the two study years by −24 and −331%, respectively, for SS, and by −8·6 and −151%, respectively, for PP. Reliable estimation of the transport of sediment and sediment-associated nutrients and other substances thus necessitates the use of an intensive monitoring approach. Turbidimeters proved to be a good substitute for direct measurement of SS, especially during storm events, although careful calibration is needed at the seasonal and storm event levels. Experience shows that in artificially drained and geologically complex catchments such as Gelbæk, simultaneous comparative monitoring of different sources (e.g. subsurface drainage water) is an important means of reliably discriminating between the various diffuse sources of sediment and phosphorus. Subsurface drainage water was found to account for 11–15% of the annual SS export from the catchment; the corresponding figure for PP being 11–18%. Surface runoff was only a source of SS and PP during the first study year, when it accounted for 19% of SS and 7% of PP catchment export. Stream bank/bed erosion must therefore have been the major diffuse source of SS and PP in both study years. The study also revealed that analysis of the trace element content (e.g. ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb) of the SS transported in subsurface drainage water and stream water during storm events is a useful means of discriminating between diffuse losses of SS delivered from topsoil and subsoil compartments. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water and nitrogen movement through a semiarid dryland agricultural catchment: Seasonal and decadal trends

Water and nutrient budgets in dryland agroecosystems are difficult to manage for efficiency and water quality. This is particularly true where complex terrain and soilscapes interact with pronounced hydrologic seasonality. The purpose of this research was to understand water and hydrologic nitrogen (N) export from a hillslope dryland agroecosystem in a semiarid region where most precipitation occurs outside the growing season. We studied 13 years (2001–2013) of records of water and N inputs and outputs from a 12 ha no‐till artificially drained catchment in the semiarid Palouse Basin of eastern Washington State, USA. Fall‐ and winter‐dominated annual precipitation averaged 462 mm. About 350 mm went to evapotranspiration; crops used ~160 mm from stored soil water during the summer dry‐down season. Soil water replenishment after crop senescence, during the fall wet‐up season, delayed the threshold onset of the high‐discharge season until December. Winter‐dominated drainage fluxes averaged 111 mm or 24% of annual precipitation. Nitrate export in drainage averaged 15 kg·N·ha^?1·year^?1, which was about 10 times the average rate of dissolved organic N export and 15% of the average rate of N application in chemical fertilizer. Fertilizer applications to the catchment were reduced, due to cropping changes, by 1/3 during the last 5 years of the study; however, no corresponding reduction was observed in the nitrate export flux. This lack of change could not be attributed to mineralization of the soil‐organic N legacy of fertilization nor to hydrologic lag of the catchment. Likeliest explanations are (a) despite the reduction, N application continued to exceed crop uptake and accumulation in organic matter; (b) seasonal and interannual variability of catchment connectivity resulted in year‐to‐year field‐scale nitrate storage and carryover. Water and N use efficiencies observed here may be near maximum obtainable for existing crops in this climate. Substantial improvements that would also address multiple environmental issues associated with the N cascade may involve shifts to perennial systems and/or rotations in which N is fixed biologically.