The great 1983 floods in South American large rivers: a continental hydrological modelling approach

ABSTRACT

This study provides a spatio-temporal analysis of the great floods that occurred in South America in 1983 using hydrometeorological data and outputs from a continental-scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model. In the extreme year 1983, there were three main flooding periods (February, June and July) in many South American river basins, such as the Araguaia, Tocantins, São Francisco, Uruguay, La Plata and its tributaries, resulting in high discharge of the Paraguay River for many months. Depth–area–duration curves show that 3-day precipitation events in northern regions of South America were among the largest 15 events in the period 1980–2015 but only for specific locations, whereas in southern areas, the most extreme events in the same period were for larger durations (≥7-day precipitation). Modelled total export of water volume to the oceans indicates that rivers draining to the South Atlantic reached an anomaly of 3.7 during 1983, followed by 1998 (1.9) and 1992 (1.1), all of them corresponding to El Niño years.     

Water resources in mountain regions: a methodological approach to assess the water balance in a highland‐lowland‐system

Mountains and highlands are typically areas that provide considerable quantities of water, the latter being an important resource for the lowlands. These run‐off quantities remain discernible in the superior‐scale river systems and significantly contribute to the global water resources. Therefore, mountain regions ought to be given specific consideration with regard to management endeavours. Although well known in principle, details of water resources originating from mountains remain under discussion. A new approach has been introduced, which depicts the water balance of Switzerland in a spatially distributed manner, based on catchments of about 150 km². The main feature of this approach is the areal precipitation, which is calculated using run‐off, evaporation and storage change of glaciers, instead of being derived from gauged precipitation values. This methodology was selected because measurement and regionalization of precipitation remain subject to large uncertainties in mountainous areas. Subsequently, the view is widened to the European Alps, which, as compared with the surrounding lowlands, contribute considerably higher annual discharge, especially in the summer months. Finally, the focus is put on the hydrological significance of mountains in general. In dry regions, mountains, in particular, are indispensable contributors to the water resources downstream. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow modelling in gravel‐bed rivers: rethinking the bottom boundary condition

A key problem in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of gravel‐bed rivers is the representation of multi‐scale roughness, which spans the range from grain size, through bedforms, to channel topography. These different elements of roughness do not clearly map onto a model mesh and use of simple grain‐scale roughness parameters may create numerical problems. This paper presents CFD simulations for three cases: a plane bed of fine gravel, a plane bed of fine gravel including large, widely‐spaced pebble clusters, and a plane gravel bed with smaller, more frequent, protruding elements. The plane bed of fine gravel is modelled using the conventional wall function approach. The plane bed of fine gravel including large, widely‐spaced pebble clusters is modelled using the wall function coupled with an explicit high‐resolution topographic representation of the pebble clusters. In these cases, the three‐dimensional Reynolds‐averaged continuity and Navier–Stokes equations are solved using the standard k ? ε turbulence model, and model performance is assessed by comparing predicted results with experimental data. For gravel‐bed rivers in the field, it is generally impractical to map the bed topography in sufficient detail to enable the use of an explicit high‐resolution topography. Accordingly, an alternative model based on double‐averaging is developed. Here, the flow calculations are performed by solving the three‐dimensional double‐averaged continuity and Navier‐Stokes equations with the spatially‐averaged 〈k ? ε〉 turbulence model. For the plane bed of fine gravel including large, widely‐spaced pebble clusters, the model performance is assessed by comparing the spatially‐averaged velocity with the experimental data. The case of a plane gravel bed with smaller, more frequent, protruding elements is represented by a series of idealized hypothetical cases. Here, the spatially‐averaged velocity and eddy viscosity are used to investigate the applicability of the model, compared with using the explicit high‐resolution topography. The results show the ability of the model to capture the spatially‐averaged flow field and, thus, illustrate its potential for representing flow processes in natural gravel‐bed rivers. Finally, practical data requirements for implementing such a model for a field example are given. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution to understanding the historical evolution of meandering rivers using dendrochronological methods: example of the Mała Panew River in southern Poland

The Ma?a Panew is a meandering river that flows 20 km through a closed forest. During times of high discharge the riverbed and floodplain are transformed under the influence of riparian trees. The changes provide the opportunity to measure the intensity of erosion and sediment accumulation based on tree ages, the dating of coarse woody debris (CWD) in the riverbed, and the dating of eccentric growth of tilting trees and exposed roots. The bed and floodplain in reaches of the Ma?a Panew River with low banks were greatly altered as a result of long periods of flooding between 1960 and 1975. Banks were undercut during these floods and black alders tilted. Those parts of alder crowns or stems which tilt and sink generate small sand shadows. When erosion is intensive alder clumps are undercut from concave banks and become mid‐channel islands, while on the other side of the channel meandering bar levels are created. The reaches with higher banks were altered by large floods, especially in 1985 and 1997. The concave banks are undercut and sediment with CWD is deposited within the riverbed, forming sand shadows behind the CWD. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic approach to short- and intermediate-term earthquake forecasting: II test application to southern California

A method is proposed for assessing the modifying effects of precursory observations on long-term probabilities of strong earthquakes (M6). Estimated short-and intermediate-term probabilities so estimated rely on the mean precursory time and its uncertainty as a function of the mainshock magnitude and epicentral position. Short-and intermediate-term modification of long-term probabilities within a 120,000 km² circular area covering most of Southern California are estimated for one or more observations of strain, resistivity, and ground water anomalies centered near Palmdale in the central Transverse Ranges. The principal assumptions employed are log normal distribution of globally reported waiting periods and assumed predictive reliability of precursory phenomena. As expected, the significance of short-and intermediate-term modifications scale with the reliability of precursory observations, and are particularly enhanced within window lengths of a precursory characteristic time.     

A revised approach to discriminating sediment transport histories in glacigenic sediments in a temperate alpine environment: a case study from Fox Glacier,New Zealand

Clast shape measurements have developed into a standard method for reconstructing the transport histories of sediments in glacial environments. The majority of studies use the ‘RA‐C₄₀’ covariance approach, with some researchers routinely including clasts of varying lithologies within their samples. The corollary is that variable lithological properties may control clast form and roundness, rather than debris‐transport mechanisms. Despite this, the role of lithology on clast shape in glacial environments has rarely been analysed. Furthermore, some studies have reported difficulties in using the RA‐C₄₀ co‐variance plot in discriminating clasts that have undergone subglacial transport, and clasts that have been modified by fluvial activity. Results from a glacierized valley in a temperate alpine setting indicate that detailed analysis of clast shape where samples are of uniform lithology, although time consuming, is a useful tool in the investigation of deposits in glaciated environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence of distinct contaminant transport patterns in rivers using tracer tests and a multiple domain retention model

Solute transport in rivers is controlled by surface hydrodynamics and by mass exchanges with distinct retention zones. Surface and hyporheic retention processes can be accounted for separately in solute transport models with multiple storage compartments. In the simplest two component model, short term storage can be associated to in-channel transient retention, e.g. produced by riparian vegetation or surface dead zones, and the long-term storage can be associated to hyporheic exchange. The STIR (Solute Transport In Rivers) multiple domain transport model is applied here to tracer test data from three very different Mediterranean streams with distinctive characteristics in terms of flow discharge, vegetation and substrate material. The model is used with an exponential residence time distribution (RTD) to represent surface storage processes and two distinct modeling closures are tested to simulate hyporheic retention: a second exponential RTD and a power-law distribution approximating a known solution for bedform-induced hyporheic exchange. Each stream shows distinct retention patterns characterized by different timescales of the storage time distribution. Both modeling closures lead to very good approximations of the observed breakthrough curves in the two rivers with permeable bed exposed to the flow, where hyporheic flows are expected to occur. In the one case where the occurrence of hyporheic flows is inhibited by bottom vegetation, only the two exponential RTD model is acceptable and the time scales of the two components are of the same magnitude. The significant finding of this work is the recognition of a strong signature of the river properties on tracer data and the evidence of the ability of multiple-component models to describe individual stream responses. This evidence may open a new perspective in river contamination studies, where rivers could possibly be classified based on their ability to trap and release pollutants.     

Particle clusters in gravel‐bed rivers: an experimental morphological approach to bed material transport and stability concepts

Structured gravel river beds clearly exert a major influence on bed stability. Indexing structural stability by field measurements of bed strength neglects the processes operating to entrain and transport bed material in different parts of each structure. This study takes a morphological approach to interpreting the critical processes, using particle tracing to determine the movement of individual cluster particles over a range of flood event magnitudes and durations. The experiment was carried out on the River South Tyne, UK; it uses flow hydrographs measured nearby and also benefits from previous studies of historical development, channel morphology and sediment transport at the same site. More than 30 clusters were monitored over a seven‐month period during which clusters occupied 7–16 per cent of the bed. Threshold flows delimiting three apparently contrasting bed sediment process regimes for cluster particles are tentatively set at 100 m³ s^?1 and 183 m³ s^?1; durations of flow at these levels are critical for cluster development, rather than flow peak values. Wake particles are transported most easily. Flow straightening in the wandering channel planform reduces the stability of clusters, since mechanical strength is markedly reduced by this change of direction. The overall area covered by clusters between significant transport events varies little, implying a dynamic equilibrium condition. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A pattern-based approach for multiple removal applied to a 3D Gulf of Mexico data set

Surface‐related multiples are attenuated for one sail line and one streamer of a 3D data set (courtesy of Compagnie Générale de Géophysique). The survey was carried out in the Gulf of Mexico in the Green Canyon area where salt intrusions close to the water‐bottom are present. Because of the complexity of the subsurface, a wavefield method incorporating the full 3D volume of the data for multiple removal is necessary. This method comprises modelling of the multiples, where the data are used as a prediction operator, and a subtraction step, where the model of the multiples is adaptively removed from the data with matching filters. The accuracy of the multiple model depends on the source/receiver coverage at the surface. When this coverage is not dense enough, the multiple model contains errors that make successful subtraction more difficult. In these circumstances, one can either (1) improve the modelling step by interpolating the missing traces, (2) improve the subtraction step by designing methods that are less sensitive to modelling errors, or (3) both. For this data set, the second option is investigated by predicting the multiples in a 2D sense (as opposed to 3D) and performing the subtraction with a pattern‐based approach. Because some traces and shots are missing for the 2D prediction, the data are interpolated in the in‐line direction using a hyperbolic Radon transform with and without sparseness constraints. The interpolation with a sparseness constraint yields the best multiple model. For the subtraction, the pattern‐based technique is compared with a more standard, adaptive‐subtraction scheme. The pattern‐based approach is based on the estimation of 3D prediction‐error filters for the primaries and the multiples, followed by a least‐squares estimation of the primaries. Both methods are compared before and after prestack depth migration. These results suggest that, when the multiple model is not accurate, the pattern‐based method is more effective than adaptive subtraction at removing surface‐related multiples while preserving the primaries.     

Implementation of the European water framework directive from the Basque country (northern Spain): a methodological approach

The European Water Framework Directive provides a challenge in the development of new and accurate methodologies. It addresses assessment of Ecological Quality Status within European rivers, lakes, groundwaters, estuaries and coasts. Although this directive is simple and flexible in its concept, it is necessary to develop an approach based upon scientific knowledge; however, at the same time it should be as simple as possible, in order to achieve both requirements and comparability of results throughout European waters. This contribution presents the first methodological approach to the problem, as used for estuaries and coasts of the Basque Country (northern Spain), in: selecting typologies and reference conditions; determining biological quality and ecological status; and identifying some problems in implementing the WFD. As such, the present paper could serve as the basis for a discussion document for other regions and countries, throughout Europe.     

A development of the lichenometric method applied to the dating of glacially influenced debris flows in southern chile

Lichenometry is a dating technique that has problems relating to questionable assumptions. The development of a size frequency approach, previously used in attempts to resolve some of the problems, is described and applied to the dating of four debris flows marginal to the San Rafael Glacier in Southern Chile. This study provides examples of the development's application, its problems and directions for further work. The size frequency approach, based on new assumptions, uses parameters derived from population size frequency distributions of the lichen species Placopsis patagonica to provide relative and absolute dating for rock surfaces. Changes in the shapes of distributions suggest the relative age of populations. Absolute dating is based on a curve (spanning a 24 year time period) derived from mean diameter size/age correlations. A stratified random sampling design permits the use of inferential statistics. Standard deviations and confidence intervals show error margins, the degree of relatedness between neighbouring populations, and populations that are anomalous. One-way analysis of variance is used to indicate where populations may safely be grouped. The size frequency approach appears to be particularly suitable for use on unstable debris flows where secondary movements are common. The approach also demonstrates that lichen growth and colonization are sensitive to aspect differences and other variations in microhabitat.     

Distributions of fatty acids in a stalagmite related to paleoclimate change at Qingjiang in Hubei,southern China

~~Distributions of fatty acids in a stalagmite related to paleoclimate change at Qingjiang in Hubei,southern China1. Dorale, J. A., Edward, R. L., Ito, E. et al., Climate and vegetation history of mid-continent from 75 to 25 ka: A speleothem record from Crevice Cave, Missouri, USA, Science, 1998, 282(5395): 1871-1874. 2. Li, B., Yuan, D., Qin, J. et al., Oxygen and carbon isotopic char- acteristics of rainwater, drip water and present speleofhems in a cave in Guilin area, and thei…     

Richardson number profiles in laboratory experiments applied to shallow seas

Abstract

A unified analysis is given of the critical conditions for the onset of stratification due to either a vertical or a horizontal buoyancy flux, with tidal or wind stirring.

The critical conditions for the onset of stratification with a horizontal buoyancy flux are found to be of the form of ratios of the tidal slope, or wind setup, to the equivalent surface slope due to the lateral density gradient. These ratios, which are easily determined from sea data, indicate that the profiles of critical flux Richardson Number, averaged over the stirring cycle, are similar to those inferred from the laboratory experiments of Hopfinger and Linden (1982) in which there is zero mean shear turbulence with a stabilising buoyancy flux, and also that the efficiency for the conversion of kinetic energy to potential energy for tidal stirring is similar to that for wind stirring.

The observed much greater efficiency for wind stirring, compared with tidal stirring with a vertical buoyancy flux, is also consistent with the existence of flux Richardson Number profiles in the sea similar to those occurring in the corresponding laboratory experiments. Using the solution of the turbulent kinetic energy equation for the water column, the relative importance of the production of turbulent kinetic energy, and its diffusion by turbulence are assessed, and the critical conditions for the onset of stratification with a vertical buoyancy flux are shown to reduce the classical Simpson—Hunter form.     

An overview of a heavy rain event in southeastern Iberia: the role of large-scale meteorological conditions

The heavy rain event of 30 January to 4 February 1993 in the Segura Basin in SE Iberia is investigated. The study emphasizes the atmospheric processes that led to thunderstorm development. The meteorological scenario has been separated into preconvective and convective periods and into large-scale and subsynoptic settings. The warm, moist air now from the Mediterranean Sea, channelled by a high-over-low blocking pattern with a cold front over southeastern Iberia appears to be the main reason that helped trigger a severe weather occurrence. The study of the mesoscale environment parameters showed an enhanced conditional unstability through a deep troposphere layer with a moderate to strong vertical wind shear that promoted conditions to allow organization of long-lived convective structures.     

Two-dimensional correlation of geophysical data applied to the heat flow and earth's crust thickness patterns in Czechoslovakia

Summary A simple method for the mutual correlation of various geophysical fields is proposed to disclose their prospective inherent correlations. Some problems connected with the statistical and physical confidence of the resulting maps of the correlation coefficient are mentioned. The correlation between the surface heat flow pattern and the crustal thickness on the territory of Czechoslovakia is presented as an example and briefly discussed in terms of crustal structure.     

The concept of dominant discharge applied to two gravel-bed streams in relation to channel stability thresholds

Dominant discharge may be defined as that discharge which transports most bed sediment in a stream that is close to steady-state conditions. The concept is examined in relation to two single thread gravel-bedded streams. One stream is alluvial and free to adjust its geometry whilst in the other, channel capacity and form are partially constrained by cohesive till-banks and a heavily compacted bed. The total quantity of bedload and its calibre were measured for every flood over a six year period, so that the relationship between the grain-size of bedload and the most effective discharge could be examined in the context of thresholds for channel change. The dominant discharge concept was applicable to the alluvial stream in that the bankfull value is an effective discharge for maintaining channel capacity. The concept applied less well to the ‘non-alluvial’ stream. Although in both streams the bankfull value was exceeded for less than 0.34 per cent of the time, overbank flows are important in instigating channel change. It is only during overbank flows that the largest bed material is entrained in quantity. For within-channel flows a threshold separates flows which winnow fine matrix from those which entrain the finer bed gravels. This threshold occurred at 60 per cent bankfull. It was concluded that the dominant discharge concept can be applied to streams close to steady-state which are alluvial, competent, and free to adjust their boundaries. An important proviso is that two channel-stability domains can be recognized. These domains represent channel maintenance and channel adjustment and are defined by intrinsic thresholds in the bed material entrainment function.