Wavelet combined innovative trend analysis for precipitation data in the Euphrates-Tigris basin,Turkey

ABSTRACT

In this study, annual and seasonal precipitation trend analysis was performed in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and discrete wavelet transformation. In this context, it was seen that there is a downward trend in winter, spring and annual precipitation, whereas precipitation has an increasing tendency in summer and autumn seasons, in the greater part of the basin. When annual and seasonal data were decomposed into wavelet components, the most significant trends were observed for high-periodic wavelet components, such as D3 (8-year), D4 (16-year) and D5 (32-year), where these components represent the periods of the precipitation data. Then, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and trend in precipitation was investigated. In this regard, it was found that there could be a significant relationship between the NAO and precipitation trends of the Euphrates-Tigris basin, especially in winter, based on the wavelet ITA.     

Regional soil moisture simulation for Shaanxi Province using SWAT model validation and trend analysis

The soil moisture in Shaanxi Province,a region with complex topography,is simulated using the distributed hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool(SWAT).Comparison and contrast of modeled and observed soil moisture show that the SWAT model can reasonably simulate the long-term trend in soil moisture and the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture in the region.Comparisons to NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalysis of soil moisture show that the trend of variability in soil moisture simulated by SWAT is more...     

The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series

This study investigated using Monte Carlo simulation the interaction between a linear trend and a lag‐one autoregressive (AR(1)) process when both exist in a time series. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the existence of serial correlation alters the variance of the estimate of the Mann–Kendall (MK) statistic; and the presence of a trend alters the estimate of the magnitude of serial correlation. Furthermore, it was shown that removal of a positive serial correlation component from time series by pre‐whitening resulted in a reduction in the magnitude of the existing trend; and the removal of a trend component from a time series as a first step prior to pre‐whitening eliminates the influence of the trend on the serial correlation and does not seriously affect the estimate of the true AR(1). These results indicate that the commonly used pre‐whitening procedure for eliminating the effect of serial correlation on the MK test leads to potentially inaccurate assessments of the significance of a trend; and certain procedures will be more appropriate for eliminating the impact of serial correlation on the MK test. In essence, it was advocated that a trend first be removed in a series prior to ascertaining the magnitude of serial correlation. This alternative approach and the previously existing approaches were employed to assess the significance of a trend in serially correlated annual mean and annual minimum streamflow data of some pristine river basins in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that, with the previously existing procedures, researchers and practitioners may have incorrectly identified the possibility of significant trends. Copyright © Environment Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Drought, a normal recurrent event in arid and semiarid lands such as Iran, is typically of a temporary nature usually leaving little permanent aftermath. In the current study, the rainfall and drought severity time series were analyzed at 10 stations in the eastern half of Iran for the period 1966–2005. The drought severity was computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12‐month timescale. The trend analyses of the data were also performed using the Kendall and Spearman tests. The results of this study showed that the rainfall and drought severity data had high variations to average values in the study period, and these variations increased with increasing aridity towards the south of the study area. The negative serial correlations found in the seasonal and annual rainfall time series were mostly insignificant. The trend tests detected a significant decreasing trend in the spring rainfall series of Birjand station at the rate of 8.56 mm per season per decade and a significant increasing trend in the summer rainfall series of Torbateheydarieh station at the rate of 0.14 mm per season per decade, whereas the rest of the trends were insignificant. Furthermore, the 12‐month values of the standardized precipitation index decreased at all the stations except Zabol during the past four decades. During the study period, all of the stations experienced at least one extreme drought which mainly occurred in the winter season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

丹江口库区本底地震与水库地震趋势分析

从丹江口库区地震地质构造着手,总结公元前143年至公元2008年本底地震活动情况,分析在初期蓄水阶段水库诱发地震活动情况、强度及成因。讨论丹江口水库增容后,新增库水对库区的应力状态影响,探讨库区及周缘地区可能诱发水库地震的区域及强度。结果发现,丹江口库区中的汉库诱发地震可能性不大。而丹库可能诱发地震,其强度应在M≤5.0。主要诱发地震危险区仍在丹库宋湾—关防滩峡谷地形库段和林茂山—凉水河地区。     

鄱阳湖水面蒸发量的计算与变化趋势分析(1955-2004年)

利用器测折算法与气候模式法,分别计算鄱阳湖周围康山、棠荫、都昌、星子、湖口5站的单站水面蒸发量,以5站两种方法计算值的平均值代表鄱阳湖大湖面的水面蒸发量,求得鄱阳湖1955-2004年各月的水面蒸发量和蒸发水量,结果为：多年平均年蒸发量1081．2 mm．年蒸发水量27．06×10~8 m~3．对年、月水面蒸发量在近50年来的变化趋势进行了分析,表明除5月份外,其他各月蒸发量和年蒸发量均呈逐渐减少趋势,年蒸发量平均每年减小2．79 mm,年蒸发水量平均减少0．05×10~8 m~3,对湖区水资源持续利用和湖泊环境将产生明显影响．对水面蒸发量递减原因进行了初步探讨．     

Urban hydrologic trend analysis based on rainfall and runoff data analysis and conceptual model calibration

Urban stormwater is a major cause of urban flooding and natural water pollution. It is therefore important to assess any hydrologic trends in urban catchments for stormwater management and planning. This study addresses urban hydrological trend analysis by examining trends in variables that characterize hydrological processes. The original and modified Mann‐Kendall methods are applied to trend detection in two French catchments, that is, Chassieu and La Lechere, based on approximately 1 decade of data from local monitoring programs. In both catchments, no trend is found in the major hydrological process driver (i.e., rainfall variables), whereas increasing trends are detected in runoff flow rates. As a consequence, the runoff coefficients tend to increase during the study period, probably due to growing imperviousness with the local urbanization process. In addition, conceptual urban rainfall‐runoff model parameters, which are identified via model calibration with an event based approach, are examined. Trend detection results indicate that there is no trend in the time of concentration in Chassieu, whereas a decreasing trend is present in La Lechere, which, however, needs to be validated with additional data. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the original Mann‐Kendall method is not sensitive to a few noisy values in the data series.     

Statistical simulation analysis of the correlation between the annual estimated key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China

IntroductionEarthquake prediction is still one of most difficult problems in the world although the researches on it in China have been done for more than 30 years. A lot of experience, however, has been accumulated and some theoretical study on earthquake prediction conducted so that some prediction could be issued prior to earthquakes to obtain real effectiveness of mitigating disasters from these earthquakes to some extent, in China. The annual national consulting convention of earthquake …     

大地电场台站日变幅年度变化趋势分析

为了直观展示大地电场日变幅年度变化趋势,获取多年尺度下数据变化形态及特征,选取2012-2015年,4个地电台网8个存在潮汐地电场变化的地电台站观测数据,进行去除台阶、异常数据及滤波处理,计算地电场日变幅。结果显示：①2012-2013年大多数台站存在春冬低、夏秋高的日变幅趋势性特征;②2014-2015年存在几种不同日变幅年度变化趋势,同时同一台站不同测道间日变幅变化趋势存在差异性,该变化趋势和差异性的存在可能与地下介质结构变化和介质的非均匀性有一定关系。     

Serial dependence properties in multivariate streamflow simulation with independent decomposition analysis

Stochastic simulation of multivariate hydrologic variables has a key role in evaluating alternative designs and operation rules of hydrologic facilities. The recently developed decomposition analysis, Independent Component Analysis (ICA), allows us to apply the simple univariate time series model to each extracted component by: (1) decomposing multivariate time series into independent components with ICA; (2) modelling and generating each component independently; and (3) mixing the generated components to come back to observational domain. However, we illustrate in the current study that fitting a univariate time series model to each extracted component might end up with the underestimation of the serial dependence that the observation data might contain. A alternative for parameter estimation is suggested to preserve the serial dependence of the observation variable using the relationship between the observation variable and the decomposed variable. The case study of the Upper Colorado River basin shows that some improvement is made through the suggested alternative. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Singular spectrum analysis and forecasting of hydrological time series

The singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique is applied to some hydrological univariate time series to assess its ability to uncover important information from those series, and also its forecast skill. The SSA is carried out on annual precipitation, monthly runoff, and hourly water temperature time series. Information is obtained by extracting important components or, when possible, the whole signal from the time series. The extracted components are then subject to forecast by the SSA algorithm. It is illustrated the SSA ability to extract a slowly varying component (i.e. the trend) from the precipitation time series, the trend and oscillatory components from the runoff time series, and the whole signal from the water temperature time series. The SSA was also able to accurately forecast the extracted components of these time series.     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

WebGIS应用现状及发展趋势

WebGIS系统出现至今,我国在理论和应用等方面做了许多探索．但限于条件．目前仍处于试验阶段,至今尚无真正意义上的WebGIS应用实例。为了促进WebGIS的应用进程,有必要对这些年研究和探索的成果作一个总结。在大量浏览近几年登载在国内各类媒体上的有关学术论、研究报告、学位论以及应用实例的基础上．概括了WebGIS的主要特点．总结了WebGIS的关键问题和实现技术,并着重介绍了目前WebGIS在农业、林业、气象、水利、地震、海洋、国土资源、环境保护、铁路交通、电力、城市建设和规划等社会各个领域的应用现状．最后对WebGIS的发展趋势进行了探讨。研究结果表明．作为开放性的应用平台．WebGIS在我国的应用前景非常广阔。     

Long‐term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin*

Some previous studies have shown that drying‐up of the lower Yellow River resulted from decreasing precipitation and excessive industrial and agricultural consumption of water from the middle and downstream regions of the Yellow River. On the basis of average air temperature, precipitation, and pan evaporation data from nearly 80 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of major climate variables over the past several decades are analysed. The analysis was mainly made for 12 months and the annual means. The isograms for annual and typical months are given in the paper. The result shows that the average temperature in the study area exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December and the smallest is in August. There are 65 of 77 stations exhibiting a downward trend for annual precipitation. In all seasons except summer, there is a similar trend in the upstream region of the Yellow River, south of latitude 35°N. It is interesting to note that the pan evaporation has decreased in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the past several decades. April and July showed the greatest magnitude of slope, and the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou as well as the Yiluo River basin exhibited the strongest declining trend. The conclusion is that the decreasing pan evaporation results from complex changes of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, and both climate change and human activities have affected the flow regime of the Yellow River during the past several decades. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

Temporal (Un)correlations Between Coda <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> and Seismicity: Multiscale Trend Analysis

This paper introduces a statistical technique, based on the recently developed Multiscale Trend Analysis (MTA), for quantifying correlations between non-stationary processes observed at irregular non-coincident time grids. We apply this technique to studying the temporal correlation between the dynamics of the ductile and brittle layers in the lithosphere. Our results confirm the previously reported strong positive correlation between the coda Q^–1 and seismicity and its drop before major earthquakes observed in California. The proposed technique has significant advantages over the conventional correlation analysis: (1) MTA allows one to work directly with non-coincident time series without preliminary resampling the data; (2) the correlation is defined via the stable objects—trends—rather than noisy individual observations, hence it is highly robust; (3) the correlations are quantified at different time scales. The suggested technique seems promising for the wide range of applied problems dealing with coupled time series.     

半湿润流域水文模型比较与集合预报

选择7种水文模型分别在中国北部3个半湿润流域做模拟对比,分析不同水文模型在各流域的适用性,并使用贝叶斯模型平均法对不同模型集合,比较各种集合方法的优势,研究贝叶斯模型平均法的应用效果.研究结果表明,以蓄满产流模式为主的模型在半湿润流域应用效果较好,针对不同流域特点对传统模型进行改进可以提高模拟精度.贝叶斯模型平均法能提供较好的确定性预报结果和概率预报结果,仅对少数模拟效果好的模型进行集合,并不能有效提高预报精度,适当增加参与集合的模型数量能使贝叶斯模型平均法更好地综合各模型优势,提高预报结果的精度.     

井下声电成像测井仪的现状与发展趋势

本文通过对成像测井仪器发展现状的考察,对常用的井下声电成像测井仪的原理进行了分析．对重要的技术指标进行了总结、对比．在此基础上,对成像测井仪器的发展进行了评述,认为：成像测井仪是目前最先进的测井仪器,在油气勘探开发中发挥着重要的作用．     

2017年伊拉克MW7.3地震的类型界定及其震后趋势分析

2017年伊拉克地震发生在我们划分的巴格达地震区,鉴于不同机构提供的该震震级参数相差较大,本文利用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,分情况讨论了该震所属地震类型,并分析了巴格达地震区地震趋势.结果表明：若2017年伊拉克地震为M_W7.3,则该震为第3锁固段向峰值强度点演化过程中发生的1次显著前震,该区未来将发生M_W7.7~8.2（双震型为M_W7.5~8.0）标志性地震,目前已接近临界状态;若2017年伊拉克地震为M_W7.5,除可能为显著前震外,还可能为标志性地震（双震）之一,若如此两年内该区将发生另一次M_W7.5地震;若2017年伊拉克地震为M_S7.8,则该震为第3锁固段峰值强度点对应的标志性地震,与我们对该震的前瞻性中长期预测结果相符.我们判断该震不为主震,预测该区未来还将发生M_W7.8~8.3（双震型为M_W7.6~8.1）标志性地震,目前该区远离临界状态.