Artificial neural networks and empirical equations to estimate daily evaporation: application to Lake Vegoritis,Greece

ABSTRACT

Evaporation is one of the most important components in the energy and water budgets of lakes and is a primary process of water loss from their surfaces. An artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used in this study to estimate daily evaporation from Lake Vegoritis in northern Greece and is compared with the classical empirical methods of Penman, Priestley-Taylor and the mass transfer method. Estimation of the evaporation over the lake is based on the energy budget method in combination with a mathematical model of water temperature distribution in the lake. Daily datasets of air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, sunshine hours and evaporation are used for training and testing of ANN models. Several input combinations and different ANN architectures are tested to detect the most suitable model for predicting lake evaporation. The best structure obtained for the ANN evaporation model is 4-4-1, with root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.69 to 1.35 mm d^?1 and correlation coefficient from 0.79 to 0.92.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Characterizing replenishment water,lake water and groundwater interactions by numerical modelling in arid regions: a case study of Shahu Lake

In order to maintain the scenic and eco-environmental values of a lake, we need to characterize its water interactions. Shahu Lake was used as a case study to show the interactions among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater in an arid region. Shahu Lake is located in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of northwest China and has an area of 13.96 km² and an average depth of 2.2 m. The groundwater modelling software MODFLOW was used. The analysis results show that hydraulic connectivity among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater is the crucial driving factor that affects the water level in Shahu Lake. The lake water level is highly sensitive to the volume of replenishment water. The groundwater is of great importance in balancing the water level in the lake and preventing it from drying up. It was determined that 13.8 × 10⁶ m³/yr is the optimal volume of replenishment water for Shahu Lake in order to maintain the lake level at its normal state and also to make the best use of available water resources on a long-term basis. Understanding of the water interactions can promote effective management of water resources in Shahu Lake.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Hughes     

Water regime of Vrana Lake in Dalmatia (Croatia): changes,risks and problems

Abstract

Vrana Lake in Dalmatia is a karstic kryptodepression connected to the nearby sea through the karstic subsoil and a canal. Due to interactions with the sea, lake water salinity increases greatly during severe dry periods, seriously endangering the ecosystem. Trend analysis (1961–2010) reveals a decrease in precipitation and surface inflow, but an increase in air temperature, and in sea and lake water levels. Lake inflow and water losses are only partially monitored. Average annual inflow from the monitored part of the catchment is 1722 m³ s^-1, but total inflow is significantly greater; the average difference between total inflow and cumulative water losses is 3072 m³ s^-1. The paper uses modelling to evaluate total inflow into the lake system, taking into consideration projected climate changes/variations till 2100 from the RegCM3 and ALADIN climate models. The analysis indicates marked decrease in discharge values by the end of this century, by as much as 60%.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas,Morocco)

This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km²) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch     

Estimating the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in an alpine-valley watershed of Xinjiang,China

ABSTRACT

The spatial-temporal variation of runoff in an inland basin is very sensitive to climate change. Investigation of runoff change in arid areas is typically limited by lack of meteorological and hydrogeological data. This study focused on runoff change in the Yarkand River source area of the Tarim Basin, China, with the aim of analysing the influence of climate change on the response characteristics of discharge. Sensitivity analysis was introduced to reflect the degree of influence of climate on runoff. Based on the sensitivity factors, over 30 sets of schemes including the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report were simulated using the MIKE 11/NAM rainfall–runoff model and the response of runoff was analysed. The results indicate that there are significant correlations and synchronous fluctuations between runoff and precipitation, evaporation and temperature. The characteristics of the sensitivity of runoff can be fitted well by Bi-Gaussian functions. The functions show that high sensitivity indexes mainly appear in the interval of 165 ± 100 m³ s^-1. The influence of precipitation on runoff is greater than that of other climate factors. Through simulation using the NAM model, we found that change of annual runoff was related to the initial climate condition. Annual runoff will have an increasing trend if it has a strong sensitivity to the initial meteorological condition. Moreover, the runoff decreases linearly with evaporation. Also it has a positive relationship with temperature and precipitation. Across the four seasons, the impact in summer and winter is greater than that in spring and autumn. Estimation of the spatial-temporal influence of climate on runoff could provide insight for water resource development in arid areas.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned     

Assessing drought threats to agricultural water supplies under climate change by combining the SWAT and MODSIM models for the Geum River basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km²) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Projections of future deterioration in UK river quality are hampered by climatic uncertainty under extreme conditions

ABSTRACT

A modelling study was undertaken to quantify effects that the climate likely to prevail in the 2050s might have on water quality in two contrasting UK rivers. In so doing, it pinpointed the extent to which time series of climate model output, for some variables derived following bias correction, are fit for purpose when used as a basis for projecting future water quality. Working at daily time step, the method involved linking regional climate model (HadRM3-PPE) projections, Future Flows Hydrology (rainfall–runoff modelling) and the QUESTOR river network water quality model. In the River Thames, the number of days when temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and phytoplankton exceeded undesirable values (>25°C, <6 mg L^?1, >4 mg L^?1 and >0.03 mg L^?1, respectively) was estimated to increase by 4.1–26.7 days per year. The changes do not reflect impacts of any possible change in land use or land management. In the River Ure, smaller increases in occurrence of undesirable water quality are likely to occur in the future (by 1.0–11.5 days per year) and some scenarios suggested no change. Results from 11 scenarios of the hydroclimatic inputs revealed considerable uncertainty around the levels of change, which prompted analysis of the sensitivity of the QUESTOR model to simulations of current climate and hydrology. Hydrological model errors were deemed of less significance than those associated with the derivation and downscaling of driving climatic variables (rainfall, air temperature and solar radiation). Errors associated with incomplete understanding of river water quality interactions with the aquatic ecosystem were found likely to be more substantial than those associated with hydrology, but less than those related to climate model inputs. These errors are largely a manifestation of uncertainty concerning the extent to which phytoplankton biomass is controlled by invertebrate grazers, particularly in mid-summer; and the degree to which this varies from year to year. The quality of data from climate models for generating flows and defining driving variables at the extremes of their distributions has been highlighted as the major source of uncertainty in water quality model outputs.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR X. Fang     

Net groundwater inflow in an enclosed lake: from synoptic variations to climatic projections

Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.     

Climate change and runoff response based on isotope analysis in an arid mountain watershed of the western Kunlun Mountains

Climate change and runoff response were assessed for the Tizinafu River basin in the western Kunlun Mountains, China, based on isotope analysis. We examined climate change in the past 50 years using meteorological data from 1957 to 2010. Results of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric technique test indicated that temperature in the entire basin and precipitation in the mountains exhibited significant increasing trends. Climate change also led to significant increasing trends in autumn and winter runoff but not in spring runoff. By using 122 isotope samples, we investigated the variations of isotopes in different water sources and analysed the contributions of different water sources based on isotope hydrograph separation. The results show that meltwater, groundwater and rainfall contribute 17%, 40% and 43% of the annual streamflow, respectively. Isotope analysis was also used to explain the difference in seasonal runoff responses to climate change. As the Tizinafu is a precipitation-dependent river, future climate change in precipitation is a major concern for water resource management.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Application of a spreadsheet hydrological model for computing the long-term water balance of Lake Awassa,Ethiopia

Abstract

The water balance of the closed freshwater Lake Awassa was estimated using a spreadsheet hydrological model based on long-term monthly hydrometeorological data. The model uses monthly evaporation, river discharge and precipitation data as input. The net groundwater flux is obtained from model simulation as a residual of other water balance components. The result revealed that evaporation, precipitation, and runoff constitute 131, 106 and 83 × 10⁶ m³ of the annual water balance of the lake, respectively. The annual net groundwater outflow from the lake to adjacent basins is 58 × 10⁶ m³. The simulated and recorded lake levels fit well for much of the simulation period (1981–1999). However, for recent years, the simulated and recorded levels do not fit well. This may be explained in terms of the combined effects of land-use change and neotectonism, which have affected the long-term average water balance. With detailed long-term hydrogeological and meteorological data, investigation of the subsurface hydrodynamics, and including the effect of land-use change and tectonism on surface water and groundwater fluxes, the water balance model can be used efficiently for water management practice. The result of this study is expected to play a positive role in future sustainable use of water resources in the catchment.     

OBSERVATIONS ON THE HINTEREIS AND VERNAGTFERNER

Abstract

Adequate water resources management at the basin level needs quality downscaling of climate change scenarios for application to impact assessment and adaptation work. This study evaluates the ability of a regional climate model (RegCM3) to simulate the present-day climate and regional water balance over the Niger River Basin (NRB). RegCM3 gives a good simulation of the NRB hydroclimatic features. The mean bias error for monthly temperature is 1.5°C, 0.3 mm d^-1 for rainfall, and 0.4 mm d^-1 for runoff. Moderate to high correlations (0.66–0.95) were found between the modelled and the observed variables. RegCM3-based water cycling indices were not statistically different from the observation. Seasonal moistening efficiency (m) ranges between 19% and 37%; 66% of the available atmospheric moisture over NRB precipitates between June and September, of which 21% originates from local evaporation. The result suggests that the moisture sink period is July to October with very high precipitation efficiency over the basin. The model reproduces the hydroclimatology of the NRB and hence is a suitable tool for further studies relating to the assessment of climate change impacts on river basin water systems.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes     

Comparative performance analysis of climate re-analysis approaches in Angola

This paper examines the performance of three climate re-analysis datasets in Angola, namely the ERA-40, NCEP-r1 and JRA-55, by comparing annual and seasonal estimates of precipitation, surface air temperature and evaporation with ground observation measurements. The observational dataset describes a region poorly covered by international climate databases and it is believed that most of its data have not been used in the data assimilation procedures of the climate models. This paper therefore provides a fresh look at the performance of these climate re-analysis datasets in a vast area where distance and civil war have hindered ground monitoring efforts. The re-analysis exercises offer better temperature estimates than precipitation estimates. When offered, the evaporation estimates from all three products are very poor. The three products are able to describe the main features of the spatial distribution of average annual precipitation and temperature, but struggle to reproduce the temporal changes of these variables. The results from a set of performance criteria show that the correlation between the observed ground measurements and re-analysis estimates is poor overall and the NSE values indicate that the average measured value at each location is usually a better estimate than the re-analysis estimate.

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae     

Characterization of regional variability of seasonal water balance within Omo-Ghibe River Basin,Ethiopia

In this study we quantify the spatial variability of seasonal water balances within the Omo-Ghibe River Basin in Ethiopia using methods proposed within the Prediction in Ungauged Basins initiative. Our analysis consists of: (1) application of the rainfall–runoff model HBV-Light to several sub-catchments for which runoff data are available, and (2) estimation of water balances in the remaining ungauged catchments through application of the model with regionalized parameters. The analyses of the resulting water balance outcomes reveal that the seasonal water balance across the Omo-Ghibe Basin is driven by precipitation regimes that change with latitude, from being strongly “seasonal” in the north to “precipitation spread throughout the year, but with a definite wetter season” in the south. The basin is divided into two distinct regions based on patterns of seasonal water balance and, in particular, seasonal patterns of soil moisture storage.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis     

Chirripó hydrological research site: Advancing stable isotope hydrology in the Central American Páramo

The Chirripó hydrological research site (CHRS) is located within the Chirripó National Park, Costa Rica (between 3100 and 3820 m asl) whereby ~100 km² are covered by Páramo, a high-elevation tropical grassland ecosystem. A lake district with approximately 30 lakes of glacial origin is also protected in this area. The CHRS has been monitored since April 2015 with the aim of establishing the first water isotope baseline for the Central American Páramo. At a regional scale, the water isotope ratios (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) in precipitation and surface water at CHRS are useful for describing the governing moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean and the complex rainfall producing systems across the N–S mountain range of Central America. These data are also providing unique information about the evaporation and water balance conditions of tropical glacial lakes and the formation of orographic and convective precipitation in high-elevation tropical ecosystems. Current data sets from CHRS include continuous lake water temperature and meteorological conditions (i.e., precipitation amount, air temperature and relative humidity), as well as water stable isotopes in precipitation, stream water, and lake water (daily to biweekly sampling frequency). Stream water is collected at several locations across the topographic gradient whereas lake water is sampled in the three main lake systems of CHRS. CHRS serves as a reference site for conducting pilot isotopic research in high-elevation ecosystems to advance the atmospheric, hydrogeological and ecohydrological studies in these understudied biomes. All data from April 2015 to November 2020 are publicly available.     

SOME ASPECTS OF THE HYDRIC BALANCE OF LAKES IN THE EASTERN ROMANIAN PLAIN IN THE YEARS 1956–1970

ABSTRACT

Because of the late withdrawal of the Levantine lake waters and because of low relief the Eastern Romanian Plain was fragmented only by big alochthonous rivers (Ialomi?a, C?lm??ui and Buz?u).

The tabular-like, 40–50-km-wide interfluve areas covered by loessoid deposits and eolian sands on the periphery are deprived of surface drainage which accounts for their present evolution.

The major relief forms in these interfluves are depressions called in Romanian ‘crov’ (sink-holes) in the central areas and short valleys formed initially by erosion processes and now modelled by mechanical and chemical weathering at their periphery: in these depressions (sink-holes) and in the secondary valleys, peripheral to the interfluve areas, lakes had started to be formed.

Because of the semiarid climate sink-hole lakes have an intermittent hydrological regime, whereas those located in the small fluviatile liman-type valleys, enjoy a permanent regime. By the absence of surface drainage, by the loss of significant amounts of water through evaporation and the degree of mineralization, these lakes fall within the group of salt lakes.

In the past few years (since 1966 and especially since 1969) the level of these lakes has continually risen and the depressions formerly lacking water started being flooded by the rising of the piezometric level.

An analysis was made of the water balance of the Amara-Ialomi?a lake to investigate this phenomenon.

Level and evaporation recordings were made in the period 1956–1970. The findings revealed that the supply of underground water to the lake amounts to 47·3 per cent exceeding the water supply produced by the rains that fell on the surface of the lake (46·7 per cent). A close relationship was established (with a lapse of 8–12 months) between the surface supply of the basin (through rainfalls) and the flow of underground water to the lake.

Extending the precipitation-induced level changes over a longer period (1896–1915 and 1921–1970) it was found that level increases are cyclic, as a direct consequence of the corresponding precipitation regime.     

Dual effects of precipitation and evaporation on lake water stable isotope composition in the monsoon region

We present the results of a 3‐year monitoring programme of the stable isotope composition of lake water and precipitation at Taozi Lake, in the East Asian monsoon region of China. Our aims were to reveal the spatiotemporal pattern of variation of stable isotopes in a small closed‐basin lake and to quantitatively determine the impacts of precipitation and evaporation on the stable isotope composition of lake water under a humid monsoon climate. In the time domain, the stable oxygen isotopic ratio of the lake water (δ¹⁸O_L) exhibited substantial seasonal and interannual variations, but the isotope variations between different precipitation events substantially exceeded seasonal and interannual variations. Compared with the stable isotopes in precipitation, δ¹⁸O_L was substantially positive and d_L was negative. In the space domains, the lake water was homogeneously mixed. Indicated by statistic analyses, precipitation plays a dominant role in dynamic of the lake stable isotope during precipitation events of relatively large magnitude, whereas the effect of evaporation is dominant during smaller precipitation events. Results advance our understanding of the stable isotope change rule in the process of lake water evaporation, and it is helpful to identify the climatic significance recorded in stable isotopic compositions of lake bottom sediments.     

Variation of hydrogeochemical characteristics of water in surface flows,shallow wells,and boreholes in the coastal city of Douala (Cameroon)

ABSTRACT

Groundwater is used by 3?million inhabitants in the coastal urban city of Douala, Cameroon, but comprehensive data are too sparse for it to be managed in a sustainable manner. Hence this study aimed to (1) assess the potability of the groundwater; (2) evaluate the spatial variation of groundwater composition; and (3) assess the interaction and recharge mechanisms of different water bodies. Hydrogeochemical tools and methods revealed the following results in the Wouri and Nkappa formations of the Douala basin, which is beneath Douala city: 30% of water samples from hand-dug wells in the shallow Pleistocene alluvium aquifer were saline and highly mineralized. However, water from boreholes in the deeper (49–92 m depth) Palaeocene aquifer was saline-free, less mineralized and potable. Water in the shallow aquifer (0.5–22 m depth) was of Na⁺-K⁺-Cl^?-NO₃^? type and not potable due to point source pollution, whereas Ca⁺-HCO₃^? unpolluted water dominates in the deeper aquifer. Water in the deep and shallow aquifers indicates the results of preferential flow pass and evaporative recharge, respectively. Possible hydrogeochemical processes include point source pollution, reverse ion exchange, remote recharge areas and mixing of waters with different chemical signatures.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR M.D. Fidelibus     

A water balance model to estimate climate change impact on groundwater recharge in Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year^–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year^–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year^–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.     

Which objective function to calibrate rainfall–runoff models for low-flow index simulations?

Much has been written on the subject of objective functions to calibrate rainfall–runoff models. Many studies focus on the best choice for low-flow simulations or different multi-objective purposes. Only a few studies, however, investigate objective functions to optimize the simulations of low-flow indices that are important for water management. Here, we test different objective functions, from single objective functions with different discharge transformations or using low-flow indices, to combinations of single objective functions, and we evaluate their robustness and sensitivity to the rainfall–runoff model. We find that the Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) applied to a transformation of discharge is inadequate to fulfil all assessment criteria, whereas the mean of the KGE applied to the discharge and the KGE applied to the inverse of the discharge is sufficient. The robustness depends on the climate variability rather than the objective function and the results are insensitive to the model.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR C. Perrin