东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征

东昆仑活动断裂托索湖——玛曲以东肯定那一带， 可据阿尼玛卿玛积峰为界再分为花石峡段和玛沁段两个在几何上不连续的段落. 两段在表征断层全新世活动特征的古地震事件方面有明显差异， 花石峡段的地震活动性明显高于玛沁段的地震活动性. 古地震研究表明， 花石峡段上3次强震活动相邻两次地震发生的时间间隔分别约为500 a和640 a， 玛沁段上最近两次古地震事件间大致有1 000 a左右的时间间隔. 根据断层平均滑动速率计算的花石峡段7.5级地震的平均复发间隔为411~608 a， 相对应的同震平均水平位错约为（5.75plusmn;0.57）m. 虽然玛沁段的地震活动性较弱， 但由于该段上最近一次地震事件离现在较为久远， 已经积累的应变能应该使我们对其未来地震危险性的分析有足够重视.      

The Late Pleistocene activity of the eastern part of east Kunlun fault zone and its tectonic significance

The nearly EW-trending East Kunlun fault zone is the north boundary of the Bayan Har block.The activity characteristics and the position of the eastern end of its eastward extension are of great significance to probing into the dynamic mechanism of formation of the east edge of the Tibetan Plateau,and also lay the foundation for seismic risk assessment of the fault zone.The following results are obtained by analysis based on satellite image interpretation of landforms,surface rupture survey,terrace scarp deformation survey,and terrace dating data on the eastern part of the East Kunlun fault zone:(1)the Luocha segment is a Holocene active fault,where a reverse L-shape paleoearthquake surface rupture zone of about 50 km long is located;(2)the Luocha segment is characterized by left-lateral slip movement under the compression-shear condition since the later period of the Late Pleistocene,with a rate of 7.68–9.37 mm/a and a vertical slip rate of 0.7–0.9 mm/a,which are basically in accord with the activity rate of segments on its west side.The results indicate that it is a part of eastward extension of the East Kunlun fault zone;(3)the high-speed linear horizontal slip of the nearly EW-trending East Kunlun fault zone is blocked by the South China block at east,and transforms into the vertical movement of the nearly SN-NNE trending Minjiang fault zone and the Longmenshan fault zone,and the uplift of Longmenshan and Minjiang.The area where transform of the two tectonic systems occurred confines the position of the east end;(4)Luocha segment and Maqu segment constitute the"Maqu seismic gap",so,seismic risk at Maqu segment is higher than that at Luocha segment,which should attract more attention.     

运用古地震数据评价东昆仑断裂带东段未来百年的强震危险性

通过收集、整理和分析青藏高原东北部22条断裂带上古地震定量数据,拟定了该区的地震复发概率密度函数.根据此函数对区内东昆仑断裂带东段不同段落上未来100年内强震原地复发的条件概率进行了初步研究.结果表明,该断裂带上自西向东的3个破裂段中,玛沁段和塔藏段未来20、50、100年的复发概率值介于0.76%~7.36%之间,玛曲段未来20、50年的复发概率值介于2.0%~5.26%,属于低概率事件;玛曲段未来100年的复发概率值为10.82%,属于中概率事件;整个段未来100年内至少发生一次7级以上强震的联合概率可达21.87%,属于中概率事件.考虑到概率模型的不确定性,进一步对各段进行了危险性的定性分类,综合评价认为玛沁段在未来百年内发生大震的危险性较低,玛曲段和塔藏段未来百年发生大震的危险性较高.最后将本文拟合的概率密度函数与传统通用函数计算的条件概率值进行比较,发现通用的复发概率函数随着自变量t/R的增大,因变量P的反映不如本文拟合函数的敏感.     

运用古地震数据评价东昆仑断裂带东段未来百年的强震危险性

通过收集、整理和分析青藏高原东北部22条断裂带上古地震定量数据,拟定了该区的地震复发概率密度函数.根据此函数对区内东昆仑断裂带东段不同段落上未来100年内强震原地复发的条件概率进行了初步研究.结果表明,该断裂带上自西向东的3个破裂段中,玛沁段和塔藏段未来20、50、100年的复发概率值介于0.76%~7.36%之间,玛曲段未来20、50年的复发概率值介于2.0%~5.26%,属于低概率事件;玛曲段未来100年的复发概率值为10.82%,属于中概率事件;整个段未来100年内至少发生一次7级以上强震的联合概率可达21.87%,属于中概率事件.考虑到概率模型的不确定性,进一步对各段进行了危险性的定性分类,综合评价认为玛沁段在未来百年内发生大震的危险性较低,玛曲段和塔藏段未来百年发生大震的危险性较高.最后将本文拟合的概率密度函数与传统通用函数计算的条件概率值进行比较,发现通用的复发概率函数随着自变量t/R的增大,因变量P的反映不如本文拟合函数的敏感.     

The slip rate and strong earthquake recurrence interval on the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone

IntroductionLocated in the western part of Sichuan Province, China, the Xianshuihe fault zone is a notable strong earthquake zone in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. At its northwestern end, the Xianshuihe fault zone overlaps the Ganzi-Yushu fault in a left-stepping pattern. The fault zone extends southeastwards through Luhuo, Daofu, Kangding, and Moxi and disappears near Shimian, with a total length of 400 km. The fault trends N40(-50°W in the north, and N20(-30°W to the south of Kangdi…     

Estimation of the 2001 Kunlun earthquake fault slip from GPS coseismic data using Hori's inverse method

The Horios inverse method based on spectral decomposition was applied to estimate coseismic slip distribution on the rupture plane of the 14 November 2001 <i<M</i<<sub<S</sub<8.1 Kunlun earthquake based on GPS survey results. The inversion result shows that the six sliding models can be constrained by the coseismic GPS data. The established slips mainly concentrated along the eastern segment of the fault rupture, and the maximum magnitude is about 7 m. Slip on the eastern segment of the fault rupture represents as purely left-lateral strike-slip. Slip on the western segment of the seismic rupture represents as mainly dip-slip with the maximum dip-slip about 1 m. Total predicted scalar seismic moment is 5.196?×10<sup<20</sup<N·m. Our results constrained by geodetic data are consistent with seismological results.     

断裂滑动速度对强震发生周期的影响——以东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖断裂分段和西大滩断裂分段为例

2001年11月14日东昆仑断裂带库赛湖段发生8.1级大地震.事实上,库赛湖断裂分段大震的复发周期会受到其他分段运动行为的影响,尤其是临近的西大滩断裂分段.本文采用速度和状态依赖摩擦本构控制的一维弹簧滑块模型(BK模型)研究断裂分段滑动速度对强震复发周期的影响.以东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖断裂分段和西大滩断裂分段作为实例进行研究,研究中将两断裂分段视为通过弹簧相连的滑块系统,其中模型参数的选择是以现有东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖和西大滩分段的地质研究成果、历史地震和古地震资料直接给出,部分参数也采用了数值计算的方法.研究预测了两分段不同滑动速度对强震复发周期、断裂滑动速度及错动位移在未来0.5～0.6万年中随时间变化的影响.研究发现:在断裂分段之间的相互影响下,各断裂分段滑动速度与各段的强震发生周期没有规律性的关系;两断裂分段组成的系统中,某断裂分段滑动速度放慢(加快)会使该断裂分段未来强震发生的震级增大(减小),而对另外断裂分段的强震发生震级没有规律性影响;两断裂分段组成的系统中,某断裂分段滑动速度加快(放慢)会使另外的断裂分段在强震发生时错动的速度加快(放慢);同时,两断裂分段组成的系统中,某一断裂分段滑动速度上的变化对另一断裂分段强震复发周期的影响只有在较长时间跨度上才能体现.     

鲁西地区苍山-尼山断裂活动习性及地震活动研究

在广泛搜集以往研究资料的基础上,运用野外地震地质考察、典型地质剖面和探槽剖面分析、系统取样等方法,研究了苍山-尼山断裂的活动性质、最新活动时代和古地震事件。研究表明：苍山-尼山断裂以左旋走滑运动为主兼有逆冲运动分量;其第四纪晚期以来的活动具有分段性,以甘霖为界,北西段为晚更新世晚期至全新世早期,南东段为晚更新世晚期;有确凿证据的古地震事件有2次,其发生时间分别是距今6.4万年左右（E1）和距今1.4万年左右（E2）;另据考证,公元前179年＂齐楚地震＂也发生在该断裂上。根据历史地震和现代地震的研究成果,分析认为该断裂未来具有发生6.5级左右地震的潜在危险。     

东昆仑断裂带托索湖段现今形变特征及其与2021玛多地震相互作用

东昆仑断裂带作为孕育强震和协调青藏高原内部构造变形的大型走滑断裂带,其现今震间闭锁情况与运动学特征一直备受关注.前人通过野外地质考察以及传统大地测量技术初步厘定了东昆仑断裂带的长期滑动速率,但受限于观测台站的空间分布,难以得到精细化的东昆仑断裂带托索湖段及其次级断裂的现今运动特征.本文利用覆盖东昆仑断裂带托索湖段2015—2021年Sentinel-1升降轨数据获取了高空间分辨率的沿断层走向震间形变速率场,结合螺位错模型和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法反演得到了该段断裂现今精细化的震间滑动速率和闭锁状态.研究结果表明,东昆仑断裂带托索湖段处于断层锁定状态,闭锁深度分布在8~29 km区间,断层深部滑动速率分布在6~9 mm·a^-1范围内.最后,本文基于库仑应力变换探讨了2021玛多地震与东昆仑断裂带的相互作用,发现东昆仑断裂带震间运动对玛多地震无明显应力加载作用,而玛多地震却促进了东昆仑断裂带花石峡至阿尼玛卿山南缘、玛沁—玛曲段的应力积累,其潜在地震危险性值得关注.

     

东昆仑断裂带东端的构造转换与2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震孕震机制

2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0地震是继2008年汶川M_S8.0地震和2013年芦山M_S7.0地震之后,青藏高原东缘在不到十年的时间内发生的第三个震级M_S7.0以上的强震.这次地震发生在东昆仑断裂带东端,作为青藏高原东北缘的一条大型左旋走滑断裂带,东昆仑断裂带与东端其它构造之间的转换关系仍不清楚,因区内地质构造和地形复杂,东昆仑断裂带东端的主要构造仍缺少深入的研究.本文在总结区域地震构造活动特征、历史地震和现代地震基础上,通过东昆仑断裂带东端已有的和最近开展的活动构造定量研究结果,并结合现今GPS变形场资料和2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震灾害特征分析,发现东昆仑断裂带最东段塔藏断裂上的左旋走滑除了一小部分继续向东传播转移到文县断裂带上外,大部分转化为其南侧的龙日坝断裂带北段、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂上的近东西向地壳缩短,这可能是岷山隆起的构造机制,而2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震正是左旋走滑的东昆仑断裂带在东端继续向东扩展的结果.

     

Average slip rate,earthquake rupturing segmentation and recurrence behavior on the Litang fault zone,western Sichuan Province,China

The Litang fault zone (LFZ) is an important active fault within the northwestern Sichuan sub-block. To-gether with the Garzê-Yushu, Xianshuihe, and An-ninghe fault zones on its northern, eastern and south-eastern sides, the LFZ constitutes the lateral extrusion tectonic system in the southeastern part of the Qing-hai-Tibetan Plateau[1,2] (Fig. 1). According to instru-mental records, historical recordings and field investi- gation, an earthquake (Ms7.3) occurred on its middle to south se…     

东昆仑断裂滑动速率变化及其对2017年九寨沟地震的应力加载

为了解东昆仑断裂活动对2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震的影响,本文选取1999-2007年、2013-2017年GPS速度场作为约束,基于块体-位错模型反演计算东昆仑断裂两个时间段的块体运动速率、断裂滑动速率和滑动亏损率,并进一步研究青藏高原东缘最大剪应变率场和九寨沟震区的震间库仑应力累积速率.结果显示,东昆仑断裂中西段左旋走滑速率较高,东段走滑速率较低,自西向东逐步递减,存在明显的梯度.在两个时间段,阿坝块体刚性运动的方向顺时针偏转0.2°,运动速率由12.22 mm·a^-1增大到15.96 mm·a^-1;东昆仑断裂左旋走滑速率升高,其中西段较为明显（升高约1.2±0.3 mm·a^-1）;东昆仑断裂东段闭锁深度和闭锁程度增加;2013-2017年,东昆仑断裂滑动引起的九寨沟震区库仑应力累积速率是1999-2007年的3倍,最大剪应变率也明显升高.因此本文认为：2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震后,龙门山断裂部分解锁,阿坝地块活动性增强,东昆仑断裂滑动速率增大,导致九寨沟震区库仑应力加载速率增加,加速了九寨沟地震的孕育过程.

     

东昆仑活动断裂带东段全新世滑动速率研究

文中通过对东昆仑活动断裂带托索湖至玛曲段的实际野外测量,获得了该段上的1组断裂位错实测数据和14C及TL测年样品。通过室内分析研究,发现大体以阿尼玛卿山玛积主峰为界,东昆仑活动断裂带托索湖至玛曲段可再分为花石峡段和玛沁段2个在几何上不连续的段落,花石峡段的全新世水平滑动速率(115±11)mm/a明显高于玛沁段(70±06)mm/a。此外,由于断裂而引起的断裂两侧的差异垂直隆升速率,花石峡段自4kaBP以来约为(21±03)mm/a,玛沁段自10kaBP以来约为055mm/a。这种差异垂直隆升速率的明显变化,一方面反映了东昆仑活动断裂带不同段落上活动的差异,另一方面也可能反映了研究区内全新世以来的快速隆升     

东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段大震危险性分析和探讨

在巴彦喀拉块体边界地震活动和构造分析的基础上,从地震活动空间图像、时间序列演化两方面对巴彦喀拉块体北边界东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁空区的大震危险性进行探讨。与以前震例进行对比发现当前甘青川交界区域已形成与共和大震前相似的平静区,活动性参数计算表明东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段有逼近的大震危险性。     

Paleoearthquake rupture behavior and recurrence of great earthquakes along the Haiyuan fault,northwestern China

Paleoseismological studies have shown that indi-vidual past large-magnitude earthquakes can be recog-nized in the geological record and the timing betweenevents can be measured through Quaternary datingtechniques[1—6]. Thus, through paleoseismological st-udies, it is possible to determine age of each prehis-toric event so that recurrence intervals of large earth-quakes may be evaluated which provides a means toexpand the limited view of earthquakes offered by thehistorical and instrumental re…     

龙门山断裂带深部构造变形的黏弹性模拟及其与强震活动的关联性探讨

根据龙门山断裂带地区的主要构造特征,建立该地区的有限元模型,同时考虑地下深处的黏弹性蠕动和不同部位间的接触关系,模拟计算了研究区在强震轮回活动中的时间演化历程.模拟结果表明:龙门山断裂带深处的滑动速率比浅表的滑动速率大,龙门山断裂带周围是相对容易发生应变积累的地区,其5~19 km深度也是高应力聚集成核区,随时间推移的应力集中程度加剧而引发强震.本模拟分析证实了重复地震观测所揭示的龙门山断裂带存在深浅活动速率差异的现象,这在一定程度上可以解释出乎预料的汶川MW7.9地震的孕育机理.综合分析研究提出:应充分利用重复地震这一天然的"地下蠕变计(subsurface creepmeter)"来探测深部构造变形的活动,为强震危险性分析提供必要的"原位(in situ)观测"约束信息.     

Holocene slip rate and paleoearthquake records of the Salt Lake segment of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault,Shanxi Province

The Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault is a major deep fault at the southern margin of the Yuncheng Basin. There have been few studies on the fault, and the historical earthquakes are few and weak. However, the intensity of activity on the fault should never be underestimated. Through interpretations of aerial images, topography measurements and excavation of trenches, this paper studied the fault distribution, the surface deformation and the activity of the normal fault south of Salt Lake near the city of Yuncheng. By tracing faults in the three trenches, it was found that there had been at least three large paleoseismic events, at 1–3.5, 3.6–4.4 and 7.4–8.8 ka BP. Employing 14 C dating, we determined the same gravel layers in the uplifted side and downthrown side. Making differential Global Positioning System measurements of the vertical difference and topographic profile, we obtained the mean slip rate of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault since 24.7 ka BP(0.75±0.05 mm/a). Using the results of relevant studies, we calculated the possible vertical fault displacement of one earthquake(2.35 m) and obtained the recurrence interval of characteristic earthquakes as 2940–3360 a after dividing the displacement by the mean slip rate.     

Theoretical and quantitative analyses of the fault slip rate uncertainties from single event and erosion of the accumulated offset

Fault slip rate is one of the most important subjects in active tectonics research, which reveals the activity and seismic potential of a fault. Due to the improvement of dating precision with the development of dating methods, Holocene geological markers, even the young markers of thousands or hundreds of years old, are widely used in fault slip rate calculation. Usually, uncertainties from a single event and erosion of the accumulated offsets are involved in fault slip rate determination. Two types of uncertainties are related to a single event; the first is the time elapsed since the latest (the most recent) event; the second is the period since the formation of the geological marker to the occurrence of the first event. High‐slip‐rate faults are more sensitive to these uncertainties than low‐slip‐rate faults. In this study, we studied quantitatively the effects of a single event on fault slip rate following the three classic earthquake models: the characteristic earthquake, uniform slip and variable slip models. We suggest that the erosion of the accumulated offset–lateral erosion on a strike‐slip fault, should also be considered in fault slip estimation. Therefore, we propose a differential method to obtain a reliable fault slip rate. In the differential method, the slip rate is the ratio of offset differentials and corresponding age differentials between the older and younger terraces along strike‐slip faults. This kind of differential method could avoid the uncertainties from the first and latest events, as well as that from the lateral erosion. By applying the differential method, we got the revised slip rates of ∼5–10 mm/year on the Altyn Tagh and Kunlun faults. These low slip rates could fit previous geodetic and geological fault slip rates and shortening rates as well as the millennial recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes along the major segments of these faults.     

断裂分段之间不同相互作用对断裂运动的影响

采用速度和状态摩擦本构控制的一维弹簧滑块模型研究断裂分段间相互作用对运动特征的影响,为研究东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖段和西大滩段2个断裂分段之间的相互影响,采用由弹簧相连的2个滑块模拟断裂分段,通过弹簧滑块系统的动力学分析,将断裂运动性质的描述归结为一组微分方程,数值求解该微分方程组,最终得到断裂运动性质的参数,从而达到确定断裂未来强震复发周期的目的。通过位错模型计算、借鉴前人研究成果以及古地震资料确定模型相关参数。研究断裂分段在不同相互作用下的强震复发周期,模拟表明断裂间不同相互作用对地震复发周期和地震时断裂错动位移的大小没有规律性的影响;只是对地震发生时断裂错动的速度有明显的影响,作用强时,地震发生时断裂错动速度大;反之,地震发生时断裂错动速度小。     

2001年昆仑山地震同震—震后效应与2021年玛多地震关系探讨

位于青藏高原中北部的巴颜喀拉地块是我国西部近年来的主体地震活动区,一系列M_W7.0以上强震均发生在该次级块体周边,而其北边界东昆仑断裂带是一条长达2000 km、规模最大、活动性最强的深大断裂带.2001年在东昆仑断裂带中段发生了M_W7.8昆仑山地震,2021年5月在其震中东南部大约450 km处巴颜喀拉块体内部一次级断裂上发生了M_W7.3玛多地震.玛多地震对人们以往认为强震更可能发生在巴颜喀拉块体边界断裂上的认识提出挑战,但是也为研究巴颜喀拉块体边界断裂与块体内部次级断裂活动关系、地震触发关系带来机遇.本文利用前期基于2001年昆仑山地震后积累的大量InSAR数据获得的震后大范围形变场时空演化图像和库仑应力变化模型,探讨昆仑山地震与玛多地震的关系.InSAR震后观测结果显示：昆仑山地震后沿东昆仑断裂带出现了长达500 km的大范围南北不对称震后形变场,其中南盘形变宽度和量级均明显大于北盘,南盘形变宽度达到250 km,断层近场相对平均形变速率达到＞20 mm·a^-1,而且南盘向南衰减梯度小,整体衰减缓慢,意味着震后形变对巴颜喀拉块体形成持续东向加载作用,并将分摊到块体内部的一系列次级断裂上,应力加载增加次级断层的地震危险性.2015—2020年InSAR震间应变率场则显示次级断裂——昆仑山口—江错断裂呈高剪切应变率特征.本文计算了昆仑山地震同震破裂和震后形变引起的玛多震区多条SE向次级断裂的累积库仑应力变化,结果显示昆仑山地震同震和震后形变对玛多地震发震断裂(昆仑山口—江错断裂)形成了一定的应力加载.本文认为昆仑山地震同震和长时间尺度震后形变加速了巴颜喀拉块体的东向运动,而断层本身运动学性质和区域应力扰动共同影响了玛多地震的发生.