潜源划分进展及我国海域和邻近海域区划潜源划分问题研究

对于陆域地区,我国已进行5次全国范围大面积地震区划研究工作,获得了丰富研究成果.但对于海域地区地震区划的研究较薄弱,较少涉及海域潜源划分模型.随着经济发展,涉及海域地区的经济活动日益频繁,对海域地区潜源划分研究及进一步地震区划研究工作的需求越来越强烈.为此,详细介绍代表性国家在潜源划分方面采取的原则和方法,总结我国海域...     

乌鲁木齐及周边地区潜在震源区的确定

根据"乌鲁木齐市活断层探测与地震危险性评价"项目的成果,确定了乌鲁木齐及周边地区的发震构造模型。在此基础上,结合地震活动特征,根据地震重复及构造类比原则对乌鲁木齐市周围的潜在震源区进行了重新划分。由此,采用地震危险性概率分析方法计算乌鲁木齐市及周围县市的基岩峰值加速度,并进行地震动峰值加速度复核。由复核结果可以看出,此潜在震源区划分方案对乌鲁木齐市的影响不大,但对阜康市的影响较大,使该市地震动峰值加速度由原来的0.15g变化为0.20g。     

Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

Seismic Zonation of the Delhi Region for Bedrock Ground Motion

An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate , b value and maximum probable earthquake M _max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.     

Zonation of Metropolitan France for the application of earthquake-resistant building regulations to critical facilities Part 1: Seismotectonic zonation

The seismotectonic zonation of Metropolitan France(part 1) and the derived seismic zonation (part 2)were carried out in order to facilitate andstandardize the application of earthquake-resistantbuilding regulations to critical facilities forreasons of environmental protection (Decree No.91-461, Ministerial Order dated 10 May 1993).According to current French legislation, adeterministic approach was adopted for the executionof these two successive zonations.The seismotectonic zonation is based on aseismotectonic analysis that included the followingstages: (1) collection and selection of base data(inherited tectonic structures, recent to contemporarydeformation and stress fields, seismicity); (2)comparison of the base data, interpretation andconstruction of a seismotectonic schema; (3) synthesisand compilation of the seismotectonic zonation.The zonation incorporates three types ofseismotectonic unit: faults or seismogenic structures,seismogenic structure systems and seismotectonicdomains. Reference earthquakes, corresponding to thestrongest known events, are associated with eachseismotectonic unit.The derived seismic zonation (see part 2) for theapplication of the legislation to critical facilitiesconstitutes an addendum, from a regulatory standpoint,to the `Nouveau zonage sismique de la France',developed in 1986 by Despeyroux and Godefroy for theapplication of earthquake-resistant buildingregulations to constructions at `normal risk'.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2?×?0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement (D _max), maximum velocity (V _max), and design ground acceleration.     

基于区域地震波形的2017年新疆精河MS6.6地震破裂方向性及发震构造研究

2017年8月9日的新疆精河MS6.6地震是近年来天山北缘发生的最大地震,震中位于由多条逆冲断层组成的库松木契克断裂带内.由于震源较深、构造形变复杂、区域地震台站相对稀疏,仅根据震源机制解、余震分布和InSAR观测结果等难以直接判定发震构造.本文针对倾滑型地震发展了一种基于区域地震波形的破裂方向性测定方法,利用余震作为参考地震进行路径校正,根据主震和参考地震的波形时移差和Pn-Pg到时差分别确定主震在水平方向和深度方向的破裂尺度,进而推断同震破裂的延展方向和延伸尺度.本文在反演了主震的点源参数后,应用新发展的方法测定了地震的破裂方向性.点源反演结果显示,精河地震是一个发生在中地壳的高角度逆冲地震,矩震级约6.2,质心深度21km,震源持续时间5.5s,两个双力偶节面分别为102°/45°/106°(NP1)和259°/47°/74°(NP2).破裂方向性分析结果显示,地震的破裂面为南倾的NP1节面,地震沿着破裂起始点向西南方向、向下破裂,总破裂长度约11.5km,其中,沿深度的破裂范围约7km,沿水平的破裂范围约9km,平均破裂速度约2.1km·s-1.综合区域地质资料、卫星影像等判定本次地震的发震断层为精河南断层,地震可能只破裂了断层的下段(17~25km),并未破出地表.     

孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分

提出了孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分其参数确定的思路和方法，即在综合考虑孤立中强地震所在地震区的总体地震构造特征与地震活动水平的基础上，利用历史地震等震线，余震分布，区域应力场及震源机制等资料，确定其潜在震源区的参数。     

论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用

发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨     

Determination of directions of horizontal principal stress and identification of active faults in Kachchh (India) by electromagnetic radiation (EMR)

The Kachchh basin in the western India is known for its recent high seismicity. This study presents an application of the geogenic Electromagnetic Radiation (EMR) technique for deciphering the directions of principal horizontal stress in the eastern Kachchh. The principal direction of horizontal stress obtained from EMR differs from those obtained from earthquake focal plane solutions. The major horizontal principal stress based on the EMR study shows an azimuth of N60°E ± 10°. The principal directions of EMR emissions are parallel to the acute bisector of conjugate microcracks. The azimuthal distribution of EMR signal and dimension of microcracks suggest that the EM emissions are transversely polarized.The study also deals with the first application of electromagnetic radiation emissions to identify active fracture planes in sandstones that could become potential active faults later, which might be seismogenic or nonseimogenic. This study is based on linear profiling at six different places across two major faults, the Kachchh Mainland Fault (KMF) and the South Wagad Fault (SWF) in the eastern Kachchh. Anomalously, high EMR emissions are observed in the eastern part of the KMF, indicating active surface deformation.     

Earthquake source as an object of geological study

The paper presents the results of long-term geological-geophysical studies of the author, which have a direct relationship to the structure and development of the sources of the strong earthquakes that occurred on the territory of Mongolia and the Baikal rift zone. They left imprints in the form of seismic dislocations in the near-surface layers or in the form of thermally treated rocks (pseudo-tachylites), considered as evidence of the manifestation of seismogenic motions in the segments of seismoactive faults at depths of 10–20 km. It was revealed that in the regions of the manifestation of denudation shear on the Earth’s surface with a length of many kilometers it is possible to identify the deep fragments of faults, in which previously the signs of rapid seismogenic motions along the faults had been manifested. Such deep fragments are revealed from the presence of friction planes, covered by the finest glass films, which arose under the strong frictional heating of rocks before the stage of melting. In this way, the possibility of studying such sections of zones of seismo-generating faults is validated, considering them as deep fragments of earthquake sources, which occurred many million years ago. New information on the instrumental measurements of the velocity of motions in the seismoactive faults is also discussed in the work. The ideas on the mechanisms of generating seismic vibrations in the fault zones are presented. The conclusion that the lower segments of faults in the source regions of earthquakes are capable of penetrating rapidly at depths of 25–40 km, where the viscoplastic deformations of rocks predominate, causing their nonlinear behavior, is substantiated. On the development of the new models of earthquake sources, more adequate to geological conditions, it is expedient to consider the ideas presented in the paper     

时间-震级可预报模式在南北地震带分段危险性评估中的应用

为了定量评估南北地震带不同段落的长期地震危险性,引入了时间－震级可预报模式。在详细地震复发行为的基础上,沿南北地震带划分了３９个震源区。利用其中２７个震源的多轮回复发资料初步建立起时间－震级可预报统计模型。计算结果表明,不同震源的地震复发表现出较好的时间可预报行为以及相对较弱的震级可预报行为。以时间可预报模型为基础,对所有震源区未来地震的复发概率进行了估算,同时,用震级可预报模型对未来地震的震级作     

Delineation of potential seismic sources for seismic zoning of Iran

A total of 235 potential seismic sources in Iran and neighboring regions are delineated based on available geological, geophysical, tectonic and earthquake data for seismic hazard assessment of the country. In practice, two key assumptions are considered; first, the assumption of earthquake repeatedness, implying that major earthquakes occur preferentially near the sites of previous earthquakes; second, the assumption of tectonic analogy, which implies that structures of analogous tectonic setting are capable of generating same size earthquakes. A two-step procedure is applied for delineation of seismic sources: first, demarcation of seismotectonic provinces; second, determination of potential seismic sources. Preferentially, potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources, in which the configuration of each source zone is controlled, mainly, by the extent of active faults, the mechanism of earthquake faultings and the seismogenic part of the crust.     

The contribution of “silent” faults to the seismic hazard of the northern Adriatic Sea

There is a difference in the seismogenic zonation used for seismic hazard assessment of ordinary buildings and that considered for critical facilities, because different levels of exceedence probability are taken into account. Consequently, in the second case tectonic structures with a low, or very low, likelihood of activation also need attention. The key factor in seismogenic zonation for seismic hazard assessment is investigated here considering some seismically undocumented faults of the northern Adriatic Sea area. Seismic hazard is evaluated for two constructions located around Trieste and close to the sea: an ordinary building and a critical facility. The results clearly show that the two constructions should be designed with quite a different level of expected ground motion in mind. Part of the difference, in the computation of the critical facility, is determined by the introduction of some faults without documented seismicity.     

Using Bayesian belief networks to analyse the stochastic dependence between interevent time and size of earthquakes

The purpose of this article is to show how Bayesian belief networks can beused in analysis of the sequence of the earthquakes which have occurred in a region, to study the interaction among the variables characterizing eachevent. These relationships can be represented by means of graphs consistingof vertices and edges; the vertices correspond to random variables, whilethe edges express properties of conditional independence. We have examinedItalian seismicity as reported in two data bases, the NT4.1.1 catalogue and the ZS.4 zonation, and taken into account three variables: the size of thequake, the time elapsed since the previous event, and the time before the subsequent one. Assigning different independence relationships among these variables, first two couples of bivariate models, and then eight trivariatemodels have been defined. After presenting the main elements constituting a Bayesian belief network, we introduce the principal methodological aspects concerning estimation and model comparison. Following a fully Bayesian approach, prior distributions are assigned on both parameters and structuresby combining domain knowledge and available information on homogeneous seismogenic zones. Two case studies are used to illustrate in detail the procedure followed to evaluate the fitting of each model to the data sets andcompare the performance of alternative models. All eighty Italian seismogenic zones have been analysed in the same way; the results obtained are reportedbriefly. We also show how to account for model uncertainty in predicting a quantity of interest, such as the time of the next event.     

2008年8月30日攀枝花-会理6.1级地震序列 ML≥4.0事件的震源机制解

针对2008年8月30日在四川攀枝花-会理发生的M_s6.1地震序列,本研究基于四川和云南两省数字地震台网的宽频带波形记录,采用CAP方法反演了该序列主震及M_L≥4.0余震的震源机制解.结果显示:主震震源机制解的两个主应力轴仰角小于10°,其中,主压力轴方位为140°;节面之一走向185°、西倾83°、滑动角5°,显示左旋走滑略兼逆冲分量的断层作用性质.结合余震、烈度分布以及震区的活动构造,判定该节面代表了主震的发震断层面,相应的发震断层应是穿越震区的近南北向红格断裂(南段).本研究还获得主震震源机制解的最佳拟合误差深度为10 km,与该事件的定位结果相一致.该序列中6次M_L≥4.0余震也具有与主震类似的震源机制解.分析初步表明:空间上,2008年攀枝花-会理M_s6.1地震序列的震源机制解与研究区内更早地震的震源机制解具有良好的协调性,反映了该序列是在川滇地块SE-SSE向水平运动的背景下、沿近S-N向红格断裂发生左旋走滑略兼逆冲运动的结果.     

混合地震模型的建立及其科学意义

利用中国西部古地震和历史地震资料建立了特征地震模型并与分档泊松模型结合组成混合地震模型。研究了青藏高原东南缘的重要地震带鲜水河－小江断裂地区的地震危险性,并与1990年出版的中国地震区划图结果进行了比较,表明在1786年曾经发生过73／4级地震的康定地区（离浙时间为213a,地震复地周期为320a）的地震概率大于后,Ⅷ度区面积同样是前大于后。这说明地震离逝时间与地震复发周期关系对地震危险性计算是有影响的,特征地震与混合地震模型的引入解决了泊松模型无记忆性的缺陷,使计算的结果更科学、合理。     

Extracting coseismic deformation of the 1997 Mani earthquake with differential interferometric SAR

Introduction The development and application of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) have a close relationship with the sensors development of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The conception of SAR is proposed comparatively to the real aperture radar antenna. It is well known that the longer the antenna is, the higher the observation resolution will be. Just limited by the length of the antenna, the resolution of real aperture radar is generally very low and cannot meet the r…     

Centrifuge modelling of raked piles

Inclined piles are prohibited by many codes in seismic areas. Nevertheless the battered effect has not yet been clarified because very few data are available. The present work is a comparison, at reduced scale in the centrifuge, of the response of two simplified pile groups: a 1 × 2 vertical piles and 1 × 2 pile group with one inclined pile. Two configurations are considered: end-bearing and floating pile group, both with pile heads rigidly fixed with a massive cap. First, repeatability tests under horizontal cyclic loading were performed on both floating pile groups. Secondly, repeated horizontal impact tests were performed on both end-bearing pile groups. These impact tests, which highlight the influence of inclined piles on the inertial response of a group, are a first step for the more complex analysis of the performance of such groups under seismic loads where inertial and kinematic interactions are combined. The first part of this work revealed the influence of sand structure around the inclined pile tip on the repeatability of the tests performed on floating pile groups. The second part highlighted differences in the dynamic response between the two end-bearing pile groups through measurements of the pile cap acceleration, the bending moment profile and the axial load in the piles.     

大斜度井和水平井井地三维电阻率数值模拟和联合反演

井地电阻率成像法利用井套管作电流源向井下供入大功率直流电流,在地表测量由地下介质的电性变化形成的电位分布,通过反演可得到地下介质的电阻率分布.针对大斜度井和水平井开展井地三维电阻率数值模拟和反演研究,对油田注水及压裂效果监测具有重要意义.基于井地电阻率成像法原理,采用有限差分法和不完全切勒斯基共轭梯度法进行了三维正演模拟,研究了大斜度井和水平井的井地电位响应特征.提出了采用层状约束阻尼最小二乘法由浅到深地进行大斜度井和水平井的多层联合反演,并对实际水平井井地电位各个层段数据进行了三维反演.模拟结果表明,倾斜线源和水平线源会对地面电位响应产生明显影响,在反演中需要考虑线源形态.实际水平井井地电位反演成像表明,考虑倾斜线源或者水平线源的联合反演得到了准确的水平井三维注水层成像图,得出注水层的真电阻率分布,能够判断注水运移方向.