Space-time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault zone and seismic gaps

The North Anatolian fault is a well-defined tectonic feature extending for 1400 km across Northern Turkey. The space-time distribution of seismicity and faulting of this zone has been examined with a particular emphasis on the identification of possible seismic gaps. Results suggest several conclusions with respect to the temporal and spatial distribution of seismicity. First, the earthquake activity appears not to be stationary over time. Periods of high activity in 1850–1900 and 1940 to the present bracket a period of relatively low activity in 1910–39. Second, there appears to have been a two-directional migration of earthquake epicenters away from a central region located at about 39°E longitude. The migration to the west has a higher velocity (>50 km/yr) than the migration to the east (10km/yr). The faulting associated with successive earthquakes generally abuts the previous rupture. Some existing gaps were filled by later earthquakes.At present there are two possible seismic gaps along the North Anatolian fault zone. One is at the western end of the fault, from about 29° to 30°E. Unless this is a region of ongoing aseismic creep, it could be the site of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake. The other possible gap is at the eastern end, from about 42° to 43°E, to the west of the unexpected M=7.3 event of 24 November 1976.     

High-velocity migration of large earthquakes along the Azores-Iran plate boundary segment

Between 1 January 1980 and 28 July 1981, a series of large earthquakes with body-wave magnitudes around 7, took place along the western segment of the Alpide belt. The sequence started in the Azores and migrated eastward along the belt at a rate of about 4400 km/yr with consecutive large events in northern Algeria, southern Italy, southern Greece and Iran. Two different methods are employed to identify similar series and corresponding migration velocities during earlier time periods of this century. The data set used contains all earthquakes with body-wave magnitudes larger than 6.3 and covers the time interval 1901–81. The concept of linear migration is tested for eastward and/or westward propagation, considering high migration velocities from 1600 to 11 000 km/yr. Results obtained are not homogeneous with respect to the two opposite migration directions, west-east and east-west, and we interpret this as a net drift of earthquake activity from the west to the east. Our efforts here are concentrated on analysis of observational data and on estabilishing the uniqueness of migration patterns. Because of the complexity of the tectonic system in question, we did not attempt to establish a mechanism explaining the migration of the observed earthquake sequences.     

Regional stresses along the Eurasia-Africa plate boundary derived from focal mechanisms of large earthquakes

The focal mechanism solutions of 83 European earthquakes withM>6, selected from a total of 140, have been used to derive the directions of the principal axes of stress along the plate boundary between Eurasia and Africa from the Azores islands to the Caucasus mountains. Along most of the region, the horizontalP-axes are at an angle of 45° to 90° with the trend of the plate boundary. HorizontalT-axes are concentrated in central Italy and northern Greece in association with normal faulting. Large strike-slip motion of right-lateral character takes place at the center of the Azores-Gibraltar fault and the North Anatolian fault. From Gibraltar to the Caucasus the boundary is complicated by the presence of secondary blocks and zones of extended deformations with earthquakes spread over wide areas. Intermediate and deep earthquakes are present at four areas with arc-like structure, namely, Gibraltar, Sicily-Calabria, Hellenic arc and Carpathians.     

Slow earthquakes and great earthquakes along the Nankai trough

We have reexamined reports indicating that slow deformation occurred before the great Japan earthquakes of 1944 (Tonankai) and 1946 (Nankaido) and find that the observations are well founded. Although no quantitative models have previously been proposed to explain all of the relevant data we show that they are satisfied by a simple model for both earthquakes. The model, based on known properties of subduction zones, has slow slip on the subduction interface in an area deeper than the seismic rupture. If this model is correct and a similar physical situation holds for an anticipated Tokai earthquake, existing instruments will be able to reveal the pre-slip in real time. While differences among the deformation time series at different sites will provide strong constraints on the slow rupture propagation, these differences could result in delaying the recognition of a coherent event.     

Recurrence characteristics of late-quaternary strong earthquakes on the major active faults along the northern border of Ordos block

Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of “temporal cluster or gap”, caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes.     

Recurrence characteristics of late-quaternary strong earthquakes on the major active faults along the northern border of Ordos block

Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of "temporal cluster or gap", caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes.     

Diurnal periodicity of weak earthquakes in Central Asia

Data on the time moments and numbers of weak earthquakes (M ≥ 0) are analyzed in five regions of Central Asia where long-term extensive instrumental observations of seismicity were conducted. Spectra of time moments of seismic events were calculated in the range of periods from 1 to 48 h with a step of half an hour. The time variations in the numbers of these earthquakes were also calculated in windows of 4 to 48 h wide with a summation step of 1 h. The presence of significant high-quality spectral extrema at periods of 24 and 12 h is established for all catalogs used, and less significant extrema at a period of 8 h are established for some catalogs. These periodicities are observed in the analysis of weak earthquakes with M < 2.2 (K < 8) and are virtually absent for stronger seismic events. It is shown that lunisolar tides have no appreciable gravitational effect on the observed variations in seismic emission. Daily variations in the actual sensitivity of the observation network due to the daytime increase in the noise level as a factor responsible for the observed diurnal periodicity raise doubts.     

Space-time distribution of small earthquakes at Phlegraean Fields,south-central Italy

A preliminary statistical analysis of the space-time distribution of small seismic events in the volcanic area of Phlegraean Fields, south-central Italy, was done on the basis of a catalogue of earthquakes recorded by the local seismic stations in the period January 1, December 31, 1983.The non-random character of the sequence has been tested by matching the observed time-dstribution of seismic events with the theoretical Poisson process.A clustered occurrence of seismic events seems to be the main cause of the departure from a Poisson process as the inter-arrival times distribution clearly shows.Furthermore, the non-random behaviour of the events space-time distribution mainly due to quiescient and clustered recursive seismic phases could be studied by using the method proposed byVon Seggern et al. (1981). The analysis and the space-time diagrams confirm the swarm-type character of the entire seismic sequence.     

青藏高原东北缘地震时空迁移的有限元数值模拟

地震在大陆内部断层系统中的时空迁移和丛集的基本力学机制一直是地球科学家关注的重要问题.青藏高原东北缘地震活动频繁,其地震时空迁移和地震丛集现象显著,是研究这个问题的重要区域.我们建立了一个三维黏弹塑性有限元模型,模拟了青藏高原东北缘主要活动断层系统的地震循环和地震时空迁移;计算了断层系统的应力演化;并探讨了断层之间的相互作用及地震时空迁移和地震丛集的原因.模拟结果显示断层之间的相互作用通过增加或降低断层上的库仑应力,加速或延缓了地震发生,使得区域地震可以在短时间内集中发生,从而形成地震丛集;另外,区域经过多个地震循环的长期演化,一些孕震断层上的应力状态恰好都达到屈服的临界状态附近,从而也可以导致这些断层上的地震在短期内集中发生,因此产生地震丛集和地震迁移.我们发现当区域经历地震丛集之后,该区域的应力大大释放,区域进入地震平静期;随着构造加载的持续,区域应力逐渐恢复,为下一次地震丛集或地震序列累积应力和能量;上述过程可以重复发生.因此地震丛集期与平静期交替出现.我们还统计了各个断层的大地震相互迁移的模拟结果,结果显示青藏高原东北缘下一次大地震有很大的概率会发生在海原断层上.

     

Waveform inversion of weak vrancea (Romania) earthquakes

Summary The inversion of high-frequency seismograms is performed to retrieve source mechanisms, hypocentral depths and source time functions of two weak Vrancea earthquakes (M_L=3.3), one that occurred in the crust, the other in the lithospheric part of the mantle. The digital waveforms recorded by the local Romanian network are used. Synthetic seismograms are computed by the modal summation method, using the point source approximation, for horizontally layered anelastic media. For each source-to-station path a different structural model is adopted which represents the best 1-D approximation of the medium in this azimuth. Thus, lateral inhomogeneities are taken into account in a simplified way. The source is described by the full moment tensor, allowing both deviatoric and volumetric components to be resolved.Although the structural models are simplified for the range of epicentral distances (15<<<170 km) considered, we find that the fit between the synthetic and observed seismograms is satisfactory for frequencies less than a few Hz. The few P-wave polarities available are not sufficient to determine a reliable source mechanism by standard methods, while the waveform inversion allows us to retrieve source mechanisms that are stable with respect to different boundary conditions and in good agreement with the observed polarities. The source time function is the less stable inverted parameter, being the most influenced by the simplification of the structural models.     

Response of tall buildings to weak long distance earthquakes

In the last decade, two tall buildings in Singapore were instrumented with accelerometers and anemometers for the original purpose of identifying the characteristics and effects of wind loading. During the monitoring it became clear that the largest acceleration responses should result from ground motions due to earthquakes having magnitudes between 6 and 8 and epicentres at least 350 km distant. The paper describes the strategy for identifying and capturing the signals from distant tremors, which depends on tracking the RMS response levels in the second vibration mode. Characteristics of some recorded signals are given. While response levels are generally small, the frequency content coincides with the range of fundamental mode frequencies for high rise residential buildings. The validity of using a tall building as a ‘weak‐motion’ seismograph is discussed by considering the mode shape of the building and the measured transfer function between basement and roof responses. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An attenuation model for distant earthquakes

Large magnitude earthquakes generated at source–site distances exceeding 100km are typified by low‐frequency (long‐period) seismic waves. Such induced ground shaking can be disproportionately destructive due to its high displacement, and possibly high velocity, shaking characteristics. Distant earthquakes represent a potentially significant safety hazard in certain low and moderate seismic regions where seismic activity is governed by major distant sources as opposed to nearby (regional) background sources. Examples are parts of the Indian sub‐continent, Eastern China and Indo‐China. The majority of ground motion attenuation relationships currently available for applications in active seismic regions may not be suitable for handling long‐distance attenuation, since the significance of distant earthquakes is mainly confined to certain low to moderate seismicity regions. Thus, the effects of distant earthquakes are often not accurately represented by conventional empirical models which were typically developed from curve‐fitting earthquake strong‐motion data from active seismic regions. Numerous well‐known existing attenuation relationships are evaluated in this paper, to highlight their limitations in long‐distance applications. In contrast, basic seismological parameters such as the Quality factor (Q‐factor) could provide a far more accurate representation for the distant attenuation behaviour of a region, but such information is seldom used by engineers in any direct manner. The aim of this paper is to develop a set of relationships that provide a convenient link between the seismological Q‐factor (amongst other factors) and response spectrum attenuation. The use of Q as an input parameter to the proposed model enables valuable local seismological information to be incorporated directly into response spectrum predictions. The application of this new modelling approach is demonstrated by examples based on the Chi‐Chi earthquake (Taiwan and South China), Gujarat earthquake (Northwest India), Nisqually earthquake (region surrounding Seattle) and Sumatran‐fault earthquake (recorded in Singapore). Field recordings have been obtained from these events for comparison with the proposed model. The accuracy of the stochastic simulations and the regression analysis have been confirmed by comparisons between the model calculations and the actual field observations. It is emphasized that obtaining representative estimates for Q for input into the model is equally important.Thus, this paper forms part of the long‐term objective of the authors to develop more effective communications across the engineering and seismological disciplines. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Space-time distribution of temperature inversions in the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer

An increase in the amplitude and frequency of temperature inversions in the boundary layer (1.5 km above the Earth’s surface) in the Arctic was detected using aerological data from the Russian ice stations during the interval 1954-1987.     

北天山中东段中小地震震源机制解及应力场反演

主要对北天山中东段中小地震震源机制解系统聚类和应力场反演。 结果表明, 研究区内中小地震震源断错性质主要以逆断层为主, 地震主破裂面基本沿NWW向或近EW向, 与该区域的NWW向构造带基本一致; 研究区内主压应力P轴近NS向, 倾角较小, 主张应力T轴倾角较大, 表明区域应力场主要受NS向水平挤压作用; 分区应力场反演结果显示, 研究区中、 西部最大主应力方向为近NS向, 与北天山西段构造应力场方向相一致。     

The pattern of diurnal periodicity of weak earthquakes in Iran

The catalogue of earthquakes recorded in Iran during 2006–2010 by a dense network of digital telemetric seismic stations is analyzed. The spectrum of the time series of these earthquakes contains a sharp maximum at 24 h. The corresponding curve of diurnal periodicity constructed by the superposed epoch method has a clear double-peak maximum near noon(11 a.m.-5 p.m. local time), which exceeds the level of seismic activity observed during the rest time of the day by a factor of 3-3.5. In the same time interval, the average hourly magnitudes of seismic events sharply drop from M = 2.15 to M = 1.95. The ratio of the normalized number of earthquakes in the daytime to those at other times of the day, which was determined within a moving window half a square degree in size, has seven distinct compact spatially isolated maxima whose magnitudes attain several dozens to a hundred units. These maxima are probably caused by industrial activity, such as road building and quarry explosions. We also note the presence of the weekend effect when the daytime maximum in the weekly curve of diurnal variations in seismic activity almost completely disappears on Friday, which is the weekend in Muslim countries. At the same time, elimination of the supposed noise component from the catalogue by the approved technique changes nothing for the daytime maximum in the daily pattern of earthquakes in Iran. In order to account for this inconsistency, we suggest invoking additional information on the technogenic seismicity and considering weak earthquakes induced by quarry explosions and vibrations of industrial machines, in particular, power units of numerous hydroelectric power stations distributed over the territory of Iran.     

Changes in the ionosphere prior to weak earthquakes in the Irkutsk region

Data from 15-minute measurements at the vertical ionospheric sounding station in Irkutsk during the summer months of 2008–2011 are analyzed in order to detect in the ionosphere effects of preparation of weak earthquakes of the K = 10–12 energy class. The method of revealing disturbances in ionospheric parameters by simultaneous observations of the sporadic E layer and regular F2 layer, which was previously applied by the authors in the case of stronger earthquakes, was used. The efficiency of using this method to detect ionospheric disturbances preceding earthquakes also in the case of weak earthquakes is demonstrated. Possible ionospheric precursors of the selected series of earthquakes are identified. For them, an empirical dependence relating the time of advance of the shock moment by the probable ionospheric precursor on the energy class of the earthquake and the epicenter distance to the observation point is found.     

Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes

In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.     

兴都库什－贝加尔地震带的地震迁移

应用一种新思路、新方法研究兴都库什－贝加尔地震带内的地震迁移，结果表明，地震沿地震带由南西西向北东东方向定向迁移，平均迁移速度为每年１２９ｋｍ，量级与中国大陆西部地震带（区）的地震迁移速度相当．研究结果为地震动力学和地震预报提供了一定的依据．     

地震预报中震级-时间模型的应用

本文从震级-时间模型的表达式出发,讨论了模型参数所含的物理意义,通过计算中国大陆各地震带的震级-时间模型参数,认为只有其中11条地震带的强震孕震过程可以用该模型来表达,其平均参数为b=0.383,c=0.154,d=0.035,B=0.844,C=-0.209,D=0.188。通过变换资料的震级下限、时间域和空间域的计算结果,讨论了模型参数的鲁棒性。通过对模型应用空间范围的分析,在华北地震区,在利用震级—时间模型对未来的地震危险进行预测时,计算单元应不小于4°×4°,而在西北和西南地区,计算单元不要小于3°×3°。而通过对模型应用时间范围的分析,在应用模型进行预测时,资料时间域要尽量长一些。     

Rupture process of large earthquakes in the northern Mexico subduction zone

The Cocos plate subducts beneath North America at the Mexico trench. The northernmost segment of this trench, between the Orozco and Rivera fracture zones, has ruptured in a sequence of five large earthquakes from 1973 to 1985; the Jan. 30, 1973 Colima event (M _s 7.5) at the northern end of the segment near Rivera fracture zone; the Mar. 14, 1979 Petatlan event (M _s 7.6) at the southern end of the segment on the Orozco fracture zone; the Oct. 25, 1981 Playa Azul event (M _s 7.3) in the middle of the Michoacan gap; the Sept. 19, 1985 Michoacan mainshock (M _s 8.1); and the Sept. 21, 1985 Michoacan aftershock (M _s 7.6) that reruptured part of the Petatlan zone. Body wave inversion for the rupture process of these earthquakes finds the best: earthquake depth; focal mechanism; overall source time function; and seismic moment, for each earthquake. In addition, we have determined spatial concentrations of seismic moment release for the Colima earthquake, and the Michoacan mainshock and aftershock. These spatial concentrations of slip are interpreted as asperities; and the resultant asperity distribution for Mexico is compared to other subduction zones. The body wave inversion technique also determines theMoment Tensor Rate Functions; but there is no evidence for statistically significant changes in the moment tensor during rupture for any of the five earthquakes. An appendix describes theMoment Tensor Rate Functions methodology in detail.The systematic bias between global and regional determinations of epicentral locations in Mexico must be resolved to enable plotting of asperities with aftershocks and geographic features. We have spatially shifted all of our results to regional determinations of epicenters. The best point source depths for the five earthquakes are all above 30 km, consistent with the idea that the down-dip edge of the seismogenic plate interface in Mexico is shallow compared to other subduction zones. Consideration of uncertainties in the focal mechanisms allows us to state that all five earthquakes occurred on fault planes with the same strike (N65°W to N70°W) and dip (15±3°), except for the smaller Playa Azul event at the down-dip edge which has a steeper dip angle of 20 to 25°. However, the Petatlan earthquake does prefer a fault plane that is rotated to a more east-west orientation—one explanation may be that this earthquake is located near the crest of the subducting Orozco fracture zone. The slip vectors of all five earthquakes are similar and generally consistent with the NUVEL-predicted Cocos-North America convergence direction of N33°E for this segment. The most important deviation is the more northerly slip direction for the Petatlan earthquake. Also, the slip vectors from the Harvard CMT solutions for large and small events in this segment prefer an overall convergence direction of about N20°E to N25°E.All five earthquakes share a common feature in the rupture process: each earthquake has a small initial precursory arrival followed by a large pulse of moment release with a distinct onset. The delay time varies from 4 s for the Playa Azul event to 8 s for the Colima event. While there is some evidence of spatial concentration of moment release for each event, our overall asperity distribution for the northern Mexico segment consists of one clear asperity, in the epicentral region of the 1973 Colima earthquake, and then a scattering of diffuse and overlapping regions of high moment release for the remainder of the segment. This character is directly displayed in the overlapping of rupture zones between the 1979 Petatlan event and the 1985 Michoacan aftershock. This character of the asperity distribution is in contrast to the widely spaced distinct asperities in the northern Japan-Kuriles Islands subduction zone, but is somewhat similar to the asperity distributions found in the central Peru and Santa Cruz Islands subduction zones. Subduction of the Orozco fracture zone may strongly affect the seismogenic character as the overlapping rupture zones are located on the crest of the subducted fracture zone. There is also a distinct change in the physiography of the upper plate that coincides with the subducting fracture zone, and the Guerrero seismic gap to the south of the Petatlan earthquake is in the wake of the Orozco fracture zone. At the northern end, the Rivera fracture zone in the subducting plate and the Colima graben in the upper plate coincide with the northernmost extent of the Colima rupture zone.