Characteristics of Changes in the Ozone Content in the Upper Stratosphere over Moscow during the Cold Half-Years of 2014–2015 and 2015–2016

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The results of ground-based microwave measurements of the stratospheric ozone profiles over Moscow during the cold half-years of 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 are...     

The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M_W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Introduction The unexpected December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake, which caused devastating tsunami around the Indian Ocean, reminds seis-mologists of the difficulty of earthquake forecast and/or prediction. For seismologists this earth-quake is almost completely unexpected, because there was neither forecasting (which means the estimation of the future earthquake rate as a function of location, time, and magnitude) nor predic-tion (forecasti…     

Βedrock instability of underground storage systems in the Czech Republic,Central Europe

Underground storage systems are currently being used worldwide for the geological storage of natural gas (CH₄), the geological disposal of CO₂, in geothermal energy, or radioactive waste disposal. We introduce a complex approach to the risks posed by induced bedrock instabilities in deep geological underground storage sites. Bedrock instability owing to underground openings has been studied and discussed for many years. The Bohemian Massif in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) is geologically and tectonically complex. However, this setting is ideal for learning about the instability state of rock masses. Longterm geological and mining studies, natural and induced seismicity, radon emanations, and granite properties as potential storage sites for disposal of radioactive waste in the Czech Republic have provided useful information. In addition, the Czech Republic, with an average concentration radon of 140 Bq m^?3, has the highest average radon concentrations in the world. Bedrock instabilities might emerge from microscale features, such as grain size and mineral orientation, and microfracturing. Any underground storage facility construction has to consider the stored substance and the geological settings. In the Czech Republic, granites and granitoids are the best underground storage sites. Microcrack networks and migration properties are rock specific and vary considerably. Moreover, the matrix porosity also affects the mechanical properties of the rocks. Any underground storage site has to be selected carefully. The authors suggest to study the complex set of parameters from micro to macroscale for a particular place and type of rock to ensure that the storage remains safe and stable during construction, operation, and after closure.     

Source parameters for the 2013–2015 earthquake sequence in Nógrád county,Hungary

Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M _L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nógrád county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M _L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Érsekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5–1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8–2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M _w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.     

The unified catalogue of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe (CENEC)—updated and expanded to the last millennium

New databases motivate improvements and extensions of the catalogue by Grünthal and Wahlström (J Seismol 7:507–531, 2003a) – G&;W03 – of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe with M _w?≥?3.50. Data from over 30 regional catalogues, the International Seismological Centre and U.S. National Earthquake Information Center bulletins for the NE Atlantic Ocean, and many special studies were analysed, largely along the lines of the previous study. Non-tectonic, non-seismic, and non-existing as well as duplicate events were identified and removed according to our current stage of knowledge. If not given by the original source, the moment magnitude, M _w, was calculated for each event with a specified epicentral location and a given strength measure (i.e., an original magnitude of any type or, for onshore events only, an intensity). The calculations follow transformation relations derived in the present or in our previous study. The investigated area is subdivided into 22 polygons, in each of which one or more local catalogues, supplemented by data from special studies, are used. If more than one catalogue lists an event, one entry was selected according to a priority algorithm specific for each polygon. If the selected catalogue entry contains more than one strength type, one was selected for the M _w calculation according to another priority scheme. The final catalogue, CENEC, is confined to the time period 1000–2004 and magnitudes M _w?≥?3.50. This is an extension of the time period covered by G&;W03 (1300–1993). The number of events has increased from about 5,000 to about 8,000. For each entry, available information on the date, time, location (including focal depth), intensity I ₀, magnitude M _w, and source (i.e., the local catalogue or special study) are given. The strength type and value from which M _w was calculated are also indicated. The catalogue is available on the website of the GFZ German Research Centre of Geosciences.     

The 2014 Mihoub earthquake (Mw4.3), northern Algeria: empirical Green’s function analysis of the mainshock and the largest aftershock

On November 15, 2014, an Mw4.3 earthquake occurred 2 km west of Mihoub village, 60 km SE of Algiers. In this study, we retrieve the relative source-time functions of the mainshock and largest aftershock (Mw3.9) for rupture analysis using the empirical Green’s function method. The two events are nearly colocated with a smaller aftershock (Mw3.5), which is treated as the empirical Green’s function. Moreover, these three events have similar focal mechanisms, suggesting that deconvolution is well posed in this case. The three events were recorded by nine stations of the Algerian permanent network. We use mainly P-wave data. The focal mechanism solution shows dominant reverse faulting with a strong strike-slip component. The two nodal planes align almost E-W, dipping to the south, and NNE-SSW, dipping to the NW, respectively; the fault and auxiliary planes cannot be resolved from hypocenter locations alone because too few aftershocks were recorded by the permanent network. The results show unilateral rupture propagation to the ENE and complex rupture with multiple episodes for the mainshock. The largest aftershock shows similar behavior with slightly less pronounced directivity at some sites. The rupture directivity for the mainshock is estimated at about N66° E, and the rupture velocity is Vr = 0.66β. The E-W nodal plane of the best-fit focal mechanism is the preferred fault plane because it best agrees with the directivity direction and is consistent with the E-W faulting that dominates in the region.     

The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the preslip and cascade models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.     

Seismic moment tensors and regional stress in the area of the December 2013–January 2014, Matese earthquake sequence (Italy)

The main goal of this study is to provide moment tensor solutions for small and moderate earthquakes of the Matese seismic sequence in southern Italy for the period of December 2013–January 2014. We estimate the focal mechanisms of 31 earthquakes with local magnitudes related to the Matese earthquake seismic sequence (December 2013–January 2014) in Southern-Central Italy which are recorded by the broadband stations of the Italian National Seismic Network and the Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network (MedNet) run by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The solutions show that normal faulting is the prevailing style of seismic deformation in agreement with the local faults mapped out in the area. Comparisons with already published solutions and with seismological and geological information available allowed us to properly interpret the moment tensor solutions in the frame of the seismic sequence evolution and also to furnish additional information about less energetic seismic phases. Focal data were inverted to obtain the seismogenic stress in the study area. The results are compatible with the major tectonic domain of the area.     

Crustal structure in northern margin of Tianshan mountains and seismotectonics of the 1906 Manas earthquake

Introduction The Tianshan orogenic belt between the Tarim and Junggar basins has re-uplifted in Cenozoic due to the collision and the northwards push-compression of Asia-India plate. The special active tectonic zones have been formed along both south and north margins of the Tianshan mountains (FENG, et al, 1991). The Tianshan seismic belt is one of the major seismic belts in China. A se-ries of strong earthquakes occurred in two flanks of the Tianshan mountains in 20th century, such as …     

Modeling the ML4.7 mainshock of the February–July 2001 earthquake sequence in Aegion, Greece

An earthquake sequence comprising almost 2000 events occurred in February–July 2001 on the southern coast of the Corinth Gulf.Several location methods were applied to 171 events recorded by the regional network PATNET. The unavailability of S-wave readings precluded from reliable depth determination. For the mainshock of April 8, M_L= 4.7, the depth varied from 0 to 20 km. The amplitude spectra of complete waveforms at three local stations (KER,SER, DES; epicentral distances 17, 26 and 56 km) were inverted between 0.1 and 0.2 Hz for double-couple focal mechanism and also for the depth. The optimum solution (strike 220°, dip 40°, rake ‒160°, and depth of 8 km) was validated by forward waveform modeling.Additionally, the mainshock depth was further supported by the P- and S-wave arrival times from the local short-period network CRLNET (Corinth Rift Laboratory).The scalar seismic moment was 2.5e15 Nm,and the moment rate function was successfully simulated by a triangle of the 0.5 second duration. This is equivalent to a 1–1.5 km fault length, and a static stress drop 2–6 MPa. This value is important for future strong ground motion simulation of damaging earthquakes in Aegion region, whose subevents may be modeled according to the studied event. The T axis of the mainshock (azimuth 176° and plunge 67°), is consistent with the regional direction of extension N10°. However, none of the nodal planes can be associated to an active structure seen at the surface. The relationship of this earthquake sequence with deeper faults (e.g. possible detachment at about 10 km) is also unclear.     

Variations in the large-scale polar solar magnetic flux: The average annual series of the Π index in 1858–2006

A long series of the known Π index of the solar corona structure has been proposed. It seems that this index, which characterizes the limb extension of polar coronal plume systems, is of importance because it is related to the large-scale polar solar magnetic flux. Solar corona photographs and drawings during total solar eclipses, collected for 13 solar activity cycles from different sources (78 eclipses), as well as H-alpha map data on the drift of the high-latitude belt of filaments before polarity reversal of the polar magnetic field have been used. Daily solar corona images, obtained on the SOHO spacecraft (using an EIT ultraviolet telescope), have been additionally used.     

The earthquake distribution and the resistivity structure in the Chinese mainland（Ⅰ）

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Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta

During flood events, breaching of flood defences along a river system can have a significant reducing effect on downstream water levels and flood risks. This paper presents a Monte Carlo based flood risk framework for policy decision making, which takes this retention effect into account. The framework is developed to estimate societal flood risk in terms of potential numbers of fatalities and associated probabilities. It is tested on the Rhine–Meuse delta system in the Netherlands, where floods can be caused by high flows in the Rhine and Meuse rivers and/or high sea water levels in the North Sea. Importance sampling is applied in the Monte Carlo procedure to increase computational efficiency of the flood risk computations. This paper focuses on the development and testing of efficient importance sampling strategies for the framework. The development of an efficient importance sampling strategy for river deltas is more challenging than for non-tidal rivers where only discharges are relevant, because the relative influence of river discharge and sea water level on flood levels differs from location to location. As a consequence, sampling methods that are efficient and accurate for one location may be inefficient for other locations or, worse, may introduce errors in computed design water levels. Nevertheless, in the case study described in this paper the required simulation time was reduced by a factor 100 after the introduction of an efficient importance sampling method in the Monte Carlo framework, while at the same time the accuracy of the Monte Carlo estimates were improved.     

Spectral Ratio Estimates for Site Effects on the Horst–Graben System in West Turkey

Recordings of micro- and moderate-size local earthquakes have been used to quantify site effects in the central-west Turkey which contains one of the world’s best examples of a rapid intra-continental extension with its high population and industrial potential. We analyzed 436 earthquakes with local magnitudes ranging between 2.0 and 5.6 using three component digital recordings from 32 stations. Site functions were obtained using two different spectral ratio approaches (horizontal to vertical spectral ratio, HVSR, and standard spectral ratio, SSR). HVSR estimates of transverse and radial S-waves were compared with one another. Epicentral distance, magnitude and back-azimuth dependencies of site functions were also evaluated. In general, HVSR values from transverse and radial S-waves are similar within a factor of 2. The back-azimuth dependencies of transverse S-wave HVSR results are more significant than distance and magnitude dependencies. On the other hand, averaging of transverse and radial S-wave HVSR results eliminates systematic back-azimuth dependencies caused by source radiation effects. Distributions of HVSR estimates along ~N–S linear array, which traversed main grabens in the region with a station spacing of 3–4 km, reflect subsurface geological complexities in the region. The sites located near the basin edges are characterized by broader HVSR curves. Broad HVSR peaks could be attributed to the complexity of wave propagation related to significant 2D/3D velocity variations at the sediment–bedrock interface near the basin edges. The results also show that, even if the site is located on a horst, the presence of weathered zones along the surface could cause moderate frequency dependent site effects. Comparison of HVSR and SSR estimates for the stations on the graben sites showed that SSR estimates give larger values at lower frequencies which could be attributed to lateral variations in regional velocity and attenuation values caused by basin geometry and edge effects.     

Spatial–temporal variability in water quality and macro-invertebrate assemblages in the Upper Mara River basin,Kenya

Tropical rivers display profound temporal and spatial heterogeneity in terms of environmental conditions. This aspect needs to be considered when designing a monitoring program for water quality in rivers. Therefore, the physico-chemical composition and the nutrient loading of the Upper Mara River and its two main tributaries, the Amala and Nyangores were monitored. Initial daily, and later a weekly monitoring schedule for 4 months spanning through the wet and dry seasons was adopted. Benthic macro-invertebrates were also collected during the initial sampling to be used as indicators of water quality. The aim of the current study was to investigate the physico-chemical status and biological integrity of the Upper Mara River basin. This was achieved by examining trends in nutrient concentrations and analyzing the structure, diversity and abundance of benthic macro-invertebrates in relation to varying land use patterns. Sampling sites were selected based on catchment land use and the level of human disturbance, and using historical records of previous water quality studies. River water pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity (EC), temperature, and turbidity were determined in situ. All investigated parameters except iron and manganese had concentration values within allowable limits according to Kenyan and international standards for drinking water. The Amala tributary is more mineralized and also shows higher levels of pH and EC than water from the Nyangores tributary. The latter, however, has a higher variability in both the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations. The variability in TP and TN concentrations increases downstream for both tributaries and is more pronounced for TN than for TP. Macro-invertebrate assemblages responded to the changes in land use and water quality in terms of community composition and diversity. The study recommends detailed continuous monitoring of the water quality at shorter time intervals and to identify key macro-invertebrate taxa that can be used to monitor changes of the water quality in rivers of the Mara basin as a result of anthropogenic changes.     

The emplacement of in situ greenstones in the northern Hidaka belt: The tectonic relationship between subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific ridge and Hidaka magmatic activity

Greenstone bodies emplaced upon or into clastic sediments crop out ubiquitously in the Hidaka belt (early Paleogene accretionary and collisional complexes exposed in the central part of northern Hokkaido, NE Japan), but the timing and setting of their emplacement has remained poorly constrained. Here, we report new zircon U–Pb ages for the sedimentary complexes surrounding these greenstones. The Hidaka Supergroup in the northern Hidaka belt is divided into four zones from west to east: zones S, U, and R, which contain in situ greenstones; and zone Y, which does not. Detrital zircons in zones S, U, and R have early Eocene U–Pb ages (55–47 Ma) and these strata are intruded by early Eocene granites (46–45 Ma), indicating that they were deposited between 55 and 46 Ma. Therefore, in situ greenstones in the northern Hidaka belt can only be explained by the subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific Ridge during 55–47 Ma. In contrast, the deposition of zone Y (the Yubetsu Group, younging to the west) began by 73–71 Ma, indicating that the accretionary prism in front of the paleo-Kuril arc formed at the same time as that in the Idonnappu zone and grew continuously until 48 Ma. The plutonic rocks that intruded the Hidaka belt are roughly divided into three stages: (1) early Eocene granites intruded the northern Hidaka belt at 46–45 Ma, during subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific Ridge; (2) the upper sequence of the Hidaka metamorphic zone was metamorphosed by magmatism at 40–37 Ma associated with the collision of the paleo-Kuril arc and NE Asia; and (3) younger granites intruded the entire Hidaka belt at 20–17 Ma in association with asthenospheric upwelling caused by back-arc expansion.     

The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period,its modification and application; the Kuril–Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.