Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes

A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23–42° N and 42–65° E, with a magnitude range of M _W 3.5–7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the “boundary effect,” since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M _W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363–1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.     

华北地区中强震前中小地震活动的动态演化特征研究

应用地震活动加速指数AI算法对华北地区1970年以来M_L≥6.0地震进行了回溯性研究。 利用该方法统计中强震前的中小地震活动频度, 分析结果显示在空间上能够反应出中小震活动频度的异常。 另外, 应用有关地震活动的频度面积S值方法, 对M_L6.0级以上强震前后的中小地震活动在时间分布上进行了研究, 此方法对AI算法的计算结果在时间上给予了支持。 结果表明: AI指数能够量化地给出中强震前中小地震活动的相对增强或减弱程度, 中强震的S值在震前表现为高值或低值异常, 震后下降或上升。 S值的异常点与AI扫描值的异常结果在时空分布上相辅相成。 在地震目录完整的情况下, 中强震震中区及其附近地区震前1 a的中小地震活动与之前3 a、 5 a的活动背景相比, 出现明显的“加速”或“减速”现象。 利用这两个参量的变化, 可为该地区中强震的预测分析提供一定的判定指标。     

Seismic microzoning from synthetic ground motion earthquake scenarios parameters: The case study of the city of Catania (Italy)

The city of Catania (Italy) in the South-Eastern Sicily has been affected in past times by several destroying earthquakes with high values of estimated magnitude. The seismogenic area to the south of Volcano Etna, known as Iblean Area, is placed between the African and the Euro-Asiatic plates on the west of the Ibleo-Maltese escarpment, to the south of the Graben of the Sicilian channel and on the east of the overlapping front of Gela. Basing on the seismic history of Catania, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X-XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 13 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 10 km). The soil response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by 1-D equivalent linear models for about 1200 borings location available in the data-bank of the central area of Catania of about 50 km², using deterministic design scenario earthquakes as input at the conventional bedrock.Seismic microzoning maps of the city of Catania have been obtained in terms of different peak ground acceleration at the surface and in terms of amplification ratios for given values of frequency.     

The earthquake of October 9, 1864 in western Transbaikalia

The area of western Transbaikalia is characterized by moderate seismic activity. Nevertheless, there is historical and instrumental evidence to show that rather strong seismic events have occurred in the area and caused considerable material damage to the population centers around their epicenters. Seismological knowledge of the region is scant. The earthquake catalogs for the area and for the historical period of time need to be corrected and supplemented. The present paper considers the earthquake of October 9, 1864, which has not been included in any parametric catalog thus far. New primary data that were found in the regional periodic press were used to determine the epicenter and magnitude (M = 5.1) for the event. The earthquake of October 9, 1864 is a “forgotten” event, but is a significant addition to the catalog for western Transbaikalia. The materials presented here can be used to assess earthquake hazard for the area, as well as to aid in the search for other unknown or “forgotten” earthquakes.     

The rupture process and asperity distribution of three great earthquakes from long-period diffracted P-waves

Maximum earthquake size varies considerably amongst the subduction zones. This has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling, which is presumably related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. The rupture process of a great earthquake indicates the distribution of strong (asperities) and weak regions of the fault. The rupture process of three great earthquakes (1963 Kurile Islands, M_W = 8.5; 1965 Rat Islands, M_W = 8.7; 1964 Alaska, M_W = 9.2) are studied by using WWSSN stations in the core shadow zone. Diffraction around the core attenuates the P-wave amplitudes such that on-scale long-period P-waves are recorded. There are striking differences between the seismograms of the great earthquakes; the Alaskan earthquake has the largest amplitude and a very long-period nature, while the Kurile Islands earthquake appears to be a sequence of magnitude 7.5 events.The source time functions are deconvolved from the observed records. The Kurile Islands rupture process is characterized by the breaking of asperities with a length scale of 40–60 km, and for the Alaskan earthquake the dominant length scale in the epicentral region is 140–200 km. The variation of length scale and M_W suggests that larger asperities cause larger earthquakes. The source time function of the 1979 Colombia earthquake (M_W = 8.3) is also deconvolved. This earthquake is characterized by a single asperity of length scale 100–120 km, which is consistent with the above pattern, as the Colombia subduction zone was previously ruptured by a great (M_W = 8.8) earthquake in 1906.The main result is that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities (e.g. the Alaskan earthquake), while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes (e.g. Kurile Islands) have smaller scattered asperities.     

Seismic microzonation studies for the city of Ragusa (Italy)

The seismic history of the city of Ragusa (Italy), the geotechnical characterisation of the subsoil and the site response analysis should be correctly evaluated for the definition of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard of the city of Ragusa, through geo-settled seismic microzoning maps. Basing on the seismic history of the city of Ragusa, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X–XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 53 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 64 km); the Vizzini earthquake of April 13, 1895 (with intensity I=VII–VIII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.86 and epicentral distance of about 26 km); the “Modica” earthquake of January 23, 1980 (with intensity I=V–VI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=4.58 and epicentral distance of about 10 km); the “Sicilian” earthquake of December 13, 1990 (with intensity I=VII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.64 and epicentral distance of about 50 km). Geotechnical characterisation has been performed by in situ and laboratory tests, with the definition of shear wave velocity profiles in the upper 30 m of soil. Soil response analyses have been evaluated for about 120 borings location by some non-linear 1-D models. Finally the seismic microzonation of the city of Ragusa has been obtained in terms of maps with different peak ground acceleration at the surface; shaking maps for the central area of the city of Ragusa were generated via GIS for the earthquake scenarios.     

2020年和林格尔ML4.5地震微震匹配定位及发震构造探讨

内蒙古和林格尔地处鄂尔多斯块体北缘阴山地震带内,历史上6级以上强震频发.2020年3月30日和林格尔发生ML4.5地震,打破了自2005年以来阴山地震带ML4.0以上地震的长期平静.研究此次地震序列的发震构造对区域应力状态和地震危险性分析有重要作用,然而内蒙古地震台网台站较为稀疏,相对于华北其他地区地震监测能力较低,对...     

匹配滤波方法研究2016年意大利中部MW6.0地震的余震迁移

2016年8月24日意大利中部发生M_W6.0地震,2个月之后,震中附近相继发生M_W5.5、M_W5.9、M_W6.5地震。研究这几次较大地震间的相互触发作用及机制十分必要,然而在大地震之后传统地震目录通常缺失很多余震事件,缺失的余震事件包含着早期余震时空分布和迁移规律的信息,为完善余震目录本文利用匹配滤波方法对M_W6.0地震后80天内的连续数据进行余震检测,得到了数十倍于模板数量的新检测事件,检测事件与模板事件组成的新余震目录完备震级为1.0,提高了地震目录的完备性。依据新余震目录进行余震时空分布研究,结果显示M_W6.0、M_W5.9、M_W6.5地震的早期余震迁移规律不同。M_W6.0地震的早期余震沿着断裂走向同时朝两侧迁移;而M_W5.9、M_W6.5地震的早期余震向南、北迁移表示出不对称的特征。通过拟合余震迁移前端发现,M_W6.0、M_W5.5地震的早期余震朝着随后较大地震的方向迁移,且较符合lgt的特征,表明余震迁移可能与慢滑动有关。     

北京及邻近地区中等以上地震地下流体异常识别与特征研究

系统分析了北京及其邻区多年积累的震例资料, 提出该区的地下流体异常分为趋势上升型中期异常、 转折型中短期异常、 突发型短期异常和短临异常等类型。 运用“同一化”思路、 从属函数、 剩余曲线及原始曲线均方差等异常判定方法, 提取了中等以上地震, 特别是5级以上地震的中、 短、 临异常实例。 通过对流体异常特征的统计分析, 给出了北京及邻近地区的中期、 中短期、 短期和短临异常的时间分布特征, 并对地震前各阶段异常的超前时间进行了总结, 该时间可作为发震时间的预测指标。 在实际应用中可为该区的震情判定提供依据。     

Locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in Central Asia from seismic intensity data

We apply the Bakun and Wentworth (Bull Seism Soc Am 87:1502–1521, 1997) method to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurred in Central Asia using MSK-64 intensity assignments. The attenuation model previously derived and validated by Bindi et al. (Geophys J Int, 2013) is used to analyse 21 earthquakes that occurred over the period 1885–1964, and the estimated locations and magnitudes are compared to values available in literature. Bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the confidence intervals of the intensity magnitudes, as well as to quantify the location uncertainty. The analyses of seven significant earthquakes for the hazard assessment are presented in detail, including three large historical earthquakes that struck the northern Tien-Shan between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries: the 1887, M 7.3 Verny, the 1889, M 8.3 Chilik and the 1911, M 8.2 Kemin earthquakes. Regarding the 1911, Kemin earthquake the magnitude values estimated from intensity data are lower (i.e. MI_LH?=?7.8 and MI_W?=?7.6 considering surface wave and moment magnitude, respectively) than the value M?=?8.2 listed in the considered catalog. These values are more in agreement with the value M _S?=?7.8 revised by Abe and Noguchi (Phys Earth Planet In, 33:1–11, 1983b) for the surface wave magnitude. For the Kemin earthquake, the distribution of the bootstrap solutions for the intensity centre reveal two minima, indicating that the distribution of intensity assignments do not constrain a unique solution. This is in agreement with the complex source rupture history of the Kemin earthquake, which involved several fault segments with different strike orientations, dipping angles and focal mechanisms (e.g. Delvaux et al. in Russ Geol Geophys 42:1167–1177, 2001; Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). Two possible locations for the intensity centre are obtained. The first is located on the easternmost sub-faults (i.e. the Aksu and Chon-Aksu segments), where most of the seismic moment was released (Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). The second location is located on the westernmost sub-faults (i.e. the Dzhil'-Aryk segment), close to the intensity centre location obtained for the 1938, M 6.9 Chu-Kemin earthquake (MI_LH?=?6.9 and MI_W?=?6.8).     

Inter-event times between the moderate-large earthquakes in Iran

Persian territory, which is dividable into major seismotectonic provinces, always suffers from damages of moderate and large earthquakes from ancient era to modern time. Therefore, temporal prediction of earthquake occurrence in this kind of area is an important topic. For this purpose, 628 moderate-large (5.5 ≤M_S≤ 8.2) earthquakes occurred in Persia during the period from 400 B.C. to 2015 C.E. were used. Considering the magnitudes of events preceding main shocks and the annual seismic moment release in seismic source areas in the provinces, we calibrated equations predicting inter-event time of occurrence of moderate and large earthquakes (M_W>5.5) in Iran. In each source area, inter-event times between moderate and large shocks with magnitudes equal to or larger than a certain cut-off magnitude (M_W5.5) were calculated. The inter-event times between the earthquakes were used to compute the relationships using multiple regression technique. Calculated relationships express the basic idea of the time predictable model predicting the occurrence time of the future main shock in a certain seismogen area. However, despite of unavoidable scatter in observations and uncertainties in the results, occurrence times of main shocks during the next years and decades in some source areas in Iran were determined.     

内蒙古中西部地区中小地震矩震级研究

基于S震相"S窗"内的波形信号识别、品质因子Q(f)和22个台站场地响应,利用2009~2016年3月内蒙古中西部地区地震的波形资料,反演了182次中小地震的震源波谱参数,得到这些小震的零频幅值及其拐角频率,据此计算了这些地震的地震矩M_0、矩震级M_W和应力降Δσ。利用回归分析方法得到了近震震级与矩震级、矩震级与应力降的关系式。分析表明,近震震级与矩震级、矩震级与应力降呈线性关系。可见,将矩震级纳入地震的快报与正式目录中,可以丰富地震观测报告内容,更好地为地震应急和地震科研服务。     

2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震序列活动特征分析

中强地震序列的主震发生后,短时间内受台站距震中较远、尾波干扰和波形重叠等因素的影响,往往会遗漏大量的地震,而地震目录的完整性会直接影响到震后趋势判定和余震序列特征分析的科学性和可靠性。本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对2017年8月1～12日的连续波形进行扫描计算,检测九寨沟M_S7.0地震前后遗漏的地震事件,选取台网目录中信噪比较高的1033个地震事件作为模板,在主震前7天至震后5天期间识别出4854个检测地震事件,为台网可定位目录的3.3倍,除去对台网单台地震事件的修正外,还检测到1797个遗漏地震事件,将完备震级从1.6级降低到1.4级。基于补充了遗漏地震的完整地震目录,对2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震序列活动特征进行分析。结果表明,前震序列在主震前短时间内出现了地震活动的密集增强,b值也显示为低值状态,可能是深部断层发生破裂之前的加速蠕动的结果。随着时间的推移,余震序列的完备震级逐渐下降并趋于稳定,b值存在缓慢升高的趋势,未来较长时期内余震序列仍将处于持续衰减的状态。     

应用统计物理方法分析川滇地区地震危险性

川滇菱形块体及其边界断裂带(21°～33°N,96°～108°E)是中国大陆地震活动最强烈的地区之一,该地区发生的一系列大地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。文中分别应用基于地震空间相关性和地壳形变场的预测方法分析了该地区未来的地震危险性。由Kagan等(1994)提出的基于地震空间相关性的方法,假定未来发生地震的概率与历史发生地震的频度成正比,根据历史地震目录建立统计学模型估计未来发生地震的概率。回溯性检验表明,这种方法对于评估地震复发周期较短的断裂带的地震危险性有较高的有效性,但对于地震复发周期较长的断裂带,如龙门山断裂带,很难给出一个理想的预期。由Shen等(2007)提出的基于地壳形变场的方法,假定长期地震危险性与地壳构造应变率成正比,根据由GPS观测获得的应变率场建立统计学模型评估未来的地震危险性。回溯性检验表明,川滇地区过去30a间发生的地震与区域应变率的大小没有明显的对应关系,但过去500a间发生的地震与应变率场有很高的相关性,表明由10a时间尺度的大地测量资料得到的地壳应变场可以很好地反映数百a时间尺度的地震危险性。     

Exploration tree approach to estimate historical earthquakes Mw and depth,test cases from the French past seismicity

The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure.     

京西北盆岭构造区强震复发概率模型及地震潜势的定量评估

基于京西北盆岭构造区活动构造的定量化研究成果 ,视强震复发间隔为一随机变量 ,借鉴NB模型的建模方法 ,结合强震复发过程中存在分形规律的思想 ,建立京西北模型———强震复发间隔的均一化值服从正态分布N(1.0 0 0 3,0 .2 4 6 4 2 ) ;京西北盆岭构造区未来可能发生地震概率较高的断裂是 :天镇 -阳高盆地北缘断裂、阳原盆地南缘断裂、延庆盆地北缘断裂辛韩段、矾山盆地北缘断裂燕水段、宣化盆地南缘断裂     

中国东北地区浅源地震活跃期特征分析

从中国东北地区不同活跃期深源地震、 浅源地震的能量释放、 持续时间, 活跃期关门地震时间韵律, 第5活跃期中强地震有序分布图像等角度, 对比分析了中国东北地区第5活跃期的基本特征。 结果表明: 中国东北地区浅源地震第5活跃期能量释放远低于其他几个活跃期, 深震和浅震的能量释放比值大, 持续时间长, 关门地震重演了前4个活跃期的时间韵律, 表现为时间、 空间丛集以及震群性质, 出现空区和条带状有序活动图像, 2013年的7次5.0级以上可能是第5活跃期的结束地震。     

Intensity attenuation in the Campania region,Southern Italy

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M _w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.     

东汉早期的地震活动

东汉早期(公元25—127年)的地震史料十分宝贵, 它反映了从远古零散、 不系统的地震记载转入连续记载并逐渐认识地震的过程. 这时的地震事件较多, 但研究不充分, 地震参数基本呈空白状. 史料的记载方式以“郡国地震”和“京师地震”为主; 时间上, 基本在汉和帝以后; 地点上, 以大华北为主. 本文具体分析了东汉早期的33次地震事件, 利用新的地震烈度衰减关系, 采用郡国平均地理面积和有感面积的概念, 比照地震范例的标准, 按《中国地震目录》的烈度震级表进行参数估算. 研究期间最主要的地震事件是4次震级≥6 1/₂ 的强震, 即公元46年10月和119年3月南阳地震、 121年10月冀南-鲁西地震和123年5月汉阳地震, 震后都有持续1—2年的余震活动. 公元118年前的地震主要分布于大华北, 震中至京师洛阳的距离多在200 km以外. 除两次5 1/₂ —6级地震外, 均属5—5 1/₂ 级中等强度地震, 少数小于4 3/₄ 级. 京师洛阳虽经历过多次地震, 但其受影响程度并不强, 基本为有感或强有感的水平, 没有遭受过破坏性或中等强度的震害.      

Intensity attenuation for active crustal regions

We develop globally applicable macroseismic intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for earthquakes of moment magnitude M _W 5.0?C7.9 and intensities of degree II and greater for distances less than 300?km for active crustal regions. The IPEs are developed for two distance metrics: closest distance to rupture (R _rup) and hypocentral distance (R _hyp). The key objective for developing the model based on hypocentral distance??in addition to more rigorous and standard measure R _rup??is to provide an IPE which can be used in near real-time earthquake response systems for earthquakes anywhere in the world, where information regarding the rupture dimensions of a fault may not be known in the immediate aftermath of the event. We observe that our models, particularly the model for the R _rup distance metric, generally have low median residuals with magnitude and distance. In particular, we address whether the direct use of IPEs leads to a reduction in overall uncertainties when compared with methods which use a combination of ground-motion prediction equations and ground motion to intensity conversion equations. Finally, using topographic gradient as a proxy and median model predictions, we derive intensity-based site amplification factors. These factors lead to a small reduction of residuals at shallow gradients at strong shaking levels. However, the overall effect on total median residuals is relatively small. This is in part due to the observation that the median site condition for intensity observations used to develop these IPEs is approximately near the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program CD site-class boundary.