Evidence for a Tang-Song Dynasty great earthquake along the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt prior to the 2008 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake,China

The magnitude (M _w) 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Longmen Shan region of China, the transition zone between the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, resulting in widespread damage throughout central and western China. The steep, high-relief eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has undergone rapid Cenozoic uplift and denudation accompanied by folding and thrusting, yet no large thrust earthquakes are known prior to the 2008 M _w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Field and excavation investigations reveal that a great historical earthquake occurred in the Sichuan region that ruptured a >200-km-long thrust fault within the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt, China, which also triggered the 2008 M _w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The average co-seismic slip amount produced by this historical earthquake is estimated to be 2–3 m, comparable with that caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Paleoseismic and archaeological evidence and radiocarbon dating results show that the penultimate great earthquake occurred in the Sichuan region during the late Tang-Song Dynasty, between AD 800 and 1000, suggesting a recurrence interval of ~1,000–1,200 years for Wenchuan-magnitude (M = ~8) earthquakes in the late Holocene within the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt. This finding is in contrast with previous estimates of 2,000–10,000 years for the recurrence interval of large earthquakes within the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt, as obtained from long-term slip rates based on the Global Positioning System and geological data, thereby necessitating substantial modifications to existing seismic-hazard models for the densely populated region at the eastern marginal zone of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Strong motion characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan, China — an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.     

Source parameters for the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.6, 03 February 2002, Çay Earthquake (Turkey) and aftershocks from GPS,Southwestern Turkey

The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (M_w ～6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (M_w ～5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ～33 km length and dipping ～43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ～11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ～1 and 0.6 m, respectively.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 3.1–4.7 earthquakes in the southern Baltic Sea and adjacent areas in 2000, 2001 and 2004

The area south and east of the Baltic Sea has very minor seismic activity. However, occasional events occur as illustrated by four events in recent years, which are analysed in this study: near Wittenburg, Germany, on May 19, 2000, M _w = 3.1, near Rostock, Germany, on July 21, 2001, M _w = 3.4 and in the Kaliningrad area, Russia, two events on September 21, 2004 with M _w = 4.6 and 4.7. Locations, magnitudes (M _L and M _w) and focal mechanisms were determined for the two events in Germany. Synthetic modeling resulted in a well-confined focal depth for the Kaliningrad events. The inversion of macroseismic observations provided simultaneous solutions of the location, focal depth and epicentral intensity. The maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations obtained from focal mechanism solutions, approximately N–S for the two German events and NNW–SSE for the Kaliningrad events, show a good agreement with the regionally oriented crustal stress field.     

Hovsgol earthquake 5 December 2014, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.9: seismic and acoustic effects

A moderate shallow earthquake occurred on 5 December 2014 (M _W = 4.9) in the north of Lake Hovsgol (northern Mongolia). The infrasonic signal with duration 140 s was recorded for this earthquake by the “Tory” infrasound array (Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Russia). Source parameters of the earthquake (seismic moment, geometrical sizes, displacement amplitudes in the focus) were determined using spectral analysis of direct body P and S waves. The spectral analysis of seismograms and amplitude variations of the surface waves allows to determine the effect of the propagation of the rupture in the earthquake focus, the azimuth of the rupture propagation direction and the velocity of displacement in the earthquake focus. The results of modelling of the surface displacements caused by the Hovsgol earthquake and high effective velocity of propagation of infrasound signal (~ 625 m/s) indicate that its occurrence is not caused by the downward movement of the Earth’s surface in the epicentral region but by the effect of the secondary source. The position of the secondary source of infrasound signal is defined on the northern slopes of the Khamar-Daban ridge according to the data on the azimuth and time of arrival of acoustic wave at the Tory station. The interaction of surface waves with the regional topography is proposed as the most probable mechanism of formation of the infrasound signal.     

Structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformation associated with the Ning’er,Yunnan Province,China <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007

The seismogenic fault and the dynamic mechanism of the Ning’er, Yunnan Province M_S6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007 are studied on the basis of the observation data of the surface fissures, sand blow and water eruption, landslide and collapse associated with the earthquake, incorporating with the data of geologic structures, focal mechanism solutions and aftershock distribution for the earthquake area. The observation of the surface fissures reveals that the Banhai segment of the NW-trending Ning’er fault is dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NNE-trending fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. The seismo-geologic hazards are concentrated mainly within a 330°-extending zone of 13.5 km in length and 4 km in width. The major axis of the isoseismal is also oriented in 330° direction, and the major axis of the seismic intensity VIII area is 13.5 km long. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the NW-trending nodal plane of the Ning’er M_S6.4 earthquake is dominated by right-lateral slip, while the NE-trending nodal plane is dominated by left-lateral slip. The preferred distribution orientation of the aftershocks of M_S≥2 is 330°, and the focal depths are within the range of 3～12 km, predominantly within 3～10 km. The distribution of the aftershocks is consistent with the distribution zone of the seismo-geologic hazards. All the above-mentioned data indicate that the Banhai segment of the Ning’er fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. Moreover, the driving force of the Ning’er earthquake is discussed in the light of the active block theory. It is believed that the northward pushing of the Indian plate has caused the eastward slipping of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has been transformed into the southeastern-southernward squeezing of the southwest Yunnan region. As a result, the NW-trending faults in the vicinity of the Ning’er area are dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NE-trending faults are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. This tectonic framework might be the main cause of the frequent occurrence of M_S6.0～6.9 earthquakes in the area.     

Atypical soil behavior during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">М</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> = 9)

To understand physical mechanisms of generation of abnormally high peak ground acceleration (PGA; >1g) during the Tohoku earthquake, models of nonlinear soil behavior in the strong motion were constructed for 27 KiK-net stations located in the near-fault zones to the south of FKSH17. The method of data processing used was developed by Pavlenko and Irikura, Pure Appl Geophys 160:2365–2379, 2003 and previously applied for studying soil behavior at vertical array sites during the 1995 Kobe (М _w ?=?6.8) and 2000 Tottori (М _w ?=?6.7) earthquakes. During the Tohoku earthquake, we did not observe a widespread nonlinearity of soft soils and reduction at the beginning of strong motion and recovery at the end of strong motion of shear moduli in soil layers, as usually observed during strong earthquakes. Manifestations of soil nonlinearity and reduction of shear moduli during strong motion were observed at sites located close to the source, in coastal areas. At remote sites, where abnormally high PGAs were recorded, shear moduli in soil layers increased and reached their maxima at the moments of the highest intensity of the strong motion, indicating soil hardening. Then, shear moduli reduced with decreasing the intensity of the strong motion. At soft-soil sites, the reduction of shear moduli was accompanied by a step-like decrease of the predominant frequencies of motion. Evidently, the observed soil hardening at the moments of the highest intensity of the strong motion contributed to the occurrence of abnormally high PGA, recorded during the Tohoku earthquake.     

The Tolud Burst of Seismicity and the Earthquake of November 30, 2012 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>C</Subscript> = 5.4, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.8) that Accompanied the Start of the 2012‒2013 Tolbachik Eruption

This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with K_S = 11.3, M_L = 4.9, M_C = 5.4, and M_W = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (M_L = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> = 5.8 14 August 2016 middle Sakhalin earthquake on a boundary between Okhotsk and Eurasian (Amurian) plates

An earthquake with the moment magnitude M _w ?=?5.8 occurred in the middle part of the Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation, on 14 August 2016, at 11:17 a.m. UTC. The earthquake source was located west of the Central Sakhalin Fault Zone, which is considered to mark the boundary between the Okhotsk and Eurasian (Amurian) plates. Moment tensor solution of the mainshock as well as the configuration of aftershock cloud suggests that the earthquake was caused by slip on a SW-dipping reverse fault. For the first time for Sakhalin, we have got the felt reports unified in accordance with DYFI. We also analyzed observed PGA values and, based on them, produced shaking maps.     

Statistical analysis of ionospheric TEC anomalies before global <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> ≥ 7.0 earthquakes using data of CODE GIM

Based on Center of Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) global ionospheric map (GIM) data, a statistical analysis of local total electron content (TEC) anomalies before 121 low-depth (D ≤ 100 km) strong (M _w ≥ 7.0) earthquakes has been made using the sliding median differential calculation method combining with a new approach of image processing technique. The results show that significant local TEC anomalies could be observed 0–6 days before 80 earthquakes, about 66.1% out of the total. The positive anomalies occur more often than negative ones. For 26 cases, both positive and negative anomalies are observed before the shock. The pre-earthquake TEC anomalies show local time recurrence for 38 earthquakes, which occur around the same local time on different days. The local time distribution of the pre-earthquake TEC anomalies mainly concentrates between 19 and 06 LT, roughly from the sunset to sunrise. Most of the pre-earthquake TEC anomalies do not locate above the epicenter but shift to the south. The pre-earthquake TEC anomalies could be extracted near the magnetic conjugate point of the epicenter for 40 events, which is 50% out of the total 80 cases with significant local TEC anomalies. In general, the signs of the anomalies around epicenter and its conjugate point are the same, but the abnormal magnitude and lasting time are not.     

Source mechanism of strong aftershocks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>⩾5.6) of the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake and the implication for seismotectonics

Dozens of >M5, hundreds of >M4, and much more >M3 aftershocks occurred after the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake, which were well recorded by permanent and portable seismic stations. After relocated with P arrival, the >M3 aftershocks show two trends of distribution, with most of the aftershocks located along the north-east strike consistent with Longmenshan fault system, yet there is a north-west trend around the epicenter. It seems that substantially more aftershocks occur in regions with crystalline bedrocks. Then we collected waveform data from National Digital Seismograph Network and regional seismograph network of China, and employed “Cut and Paste” method to obtain focal mechanisms and depths of the big aftershocks (M⩾5.6). While most of those aftershocks show thrust mechanism, there are some strike slip earthquakes in the northern-most end of the rupture. Focal mechanisms show that the events located on the southern part of central Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (BY) are mainly thrust earthquakes, which is consistent with initial mechanism of the main shock rupture. In the north part the aftershocks along the BY are also dominated by thrust slip, which is quite different from the right slip rupture of the main shock. Around Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault, the focal mechanisms are dominated by right-slip rupture with large depths (∼18 km). So we suspected that in the north part the main shock might rupture on two faults: Beichuan Fault and Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault. The complex pattern of aftershock mechanisms argues for presence of a complicated fault system in the Longmenshan area. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX3-SW-153, KZCX2-YW-116-1), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40604004), and National Basic Technology R & D Program (Grant No. 2006BAC01B02-01-02).     

Bias,variance and computational properties of Kijko’s estimators of the upper limit of magnitude distribution,M<Subscript>max</Subscript>

It is often assumed in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that the magnitude distribution has an upper limit M _max, which indicates a limitation on event size in specific seismogeneic conditions. Accurate estimation of M _max from an earthquake catalog is a matter of utmost importance. We compare bias, dispersion and computational properties of four popular M _max estimators, introduced by Kijko and others (e.g., Kijko and Sellevoll 1989, Kijko and Graham 1998, Kijko 2004) and we recommend the ones which can be the most fruitful in practical applications. We provide nomograms for evaluation of bias and standard deviation of the recommended estimators for combinations of sample sizes and distribution parameters. We suggest to use the bias nomograms to correct the M _max estimates. The nomograms of standard deviation can be used to determine minimum sample size for a required accuracy of M _max.     

New characteristics of intensity assessment of Sichuan Lushan “4.20” <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>7.0 earthquake

The post-earthquake rapid accurate assessment of macro influence of seismic ground motion is of significance for earthquake emergency relief, post-earthquake reconstruction and scientific research. The seismic intensity distribution map released by the Lushan earthquake field team of the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) five days after the strong earthquake (M7.0) occurred in Lushan County of Sichuan Ya’an City at 8:02 on April 20, 2013 provides a scientific basis for emergency relief, economic loss assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction. In this paper, the means for blind estimation of macroscopic intensity, field estimation of macro intensity, and review of intensity, as well as corresponding problems are discussed in detail, and the intensity distribution characteristics of the Lushan “4.20” M7.0 earthquake and its influential factors are analyzed, providing a reference for future seismic intensity assessments.     

A statistical analysis of seismo-ionospheric TEC anomalies before 63 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Turkey during 2003–2016

In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 M_w?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the M_w 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for M_w?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.     

Multi-dipole observation system and study on the abnormal variation of the geoelectric field observed at Capital Circle area before the Wen’an <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>5.1 earthquake

On July 4, 2006, a M_S5.1 earthquake occurred in Wen’an county of Hebei Province of which the epicenter is near the Beijing city. The six geoelectric field monitoring stations have been in operation for several years around the Beijing area to examine the relationship between electric field changes and earthquake. This paper firstly explains the principle of the eliminating noise method by using multi-dipole observation system of the geoelectric field. Then the data observed at the stations are studied and a lot of abnormal signals preceding the Wen’an earthquake are selected, of which five abnormal signals of the geoelectric field are finally recognized as the precursory signals. The result shows that ? there probably exists the precursory signals of the geoelectric field preceding the Wen’an earthquake; ? there are sensitive sites in the spatial distribution of the abnormal variation of the geoelectric field before the quack; ? the anomalous signals do not appear synchronously, and their durations are not same at different stations; ? the amplitudes of the abnormal signals recorded at Baodi station are small, but large at Changli station, while the latter is farther from the epicentral area than the former.     

Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis><Subscript>e</Subscript> disturbances before 2007 Pu’er,Yunnan, China,earthquake

Selecting three half orbits near the epicenter of Pu’er earthquake, we analyzed the N_e data recorded in their revisited orbits during a year before this earthquake, and extracted N_e precursors. The results show that: ① There are significant seasonal variations of ionospheric N_e in night time, which exhibit different shapes respectively in four seasons; ② There are three main shapes of N_e: single-peak, saddle-shaped and even-shaped, all of which may occur in four seasons, but each season with its typical shape relatively; ③ Spatial images of N_e showed high values near the epicenter in 30 days before the earthquake, and there is a good correlation between anomaly and distribution of earthquake in space and time, which reflects that these spatial anomalies were indeed concerned with the earthquake; ④ There shows a certain similarity of the N_e curves among revisited orbits, which can provide background information for distinguishing and identification of seismic anomaly.     

Estimation of crustal Q<Subscript>β</Subscript> in the NW Himalaya using teleseismic broadband SH waveforms of the 8 October 2005 South Asian earthquake

The average value of the intrinsic shear wave quality factor, Q _β , for the 15 km of the upper crust in the NW Himalaya is estimated. Thirty-two teleseismic broadband SH and sSH waveforms of 8 October 2005 South Asian earthquake (Mw = 7.6), from sixteen Global Seismographic Network stations of the National Earthquake Information Center network have been used. The selected windows of the direct and depth phases have been Fourier transformed and smoothed using the Hamming and Tuckey technique. Ratio of the smoothed spectra of depth and direct phases are obtained in the frequency range 0.2–1.5 Hz. A straight line is fitted in the least-square sense to the spectral ratio versus frequency. The value of Q _β is estimated from the slope of the line. The frequency independent average value of Q _β is estimated to be 218±56.     

An improved earthquake catalogue (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 4.0) for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012)

Many catalogues, agency reports and research articles have been published on seismicity of Turkey and its surrounding since 1950s. Given existing magnitude heterogeneity, erroneous information on epicentral location, event date and time, this past published data however is far from fulfilling the required standards. Paucity of a standardized format in the available catalogues have reinforced the need for a refined and updated catalogue for earthquake related hazard and risk studies. During this study, ~37,000 earthquakes and related parametric data were evaluated by utilizing more than 41 published studies and, an integrated database was prepared in order to analyse all parameters acquired from the catalogues and references for each event. Within the scope of this study, the epicentral locations of M ≥ 5.0 events were firstly reappraised based on the updated Active Fault Map of Turkey. An improved catalogue of 12.674 events for the period 1900–2012 was as a result recompiled for the region between 32–45N° and 23–48E° by analyzing in detail accuracy of all seismological parameters available for each event. The events consist of M ≥ 4.0 are reported in several magnitude scales (e.g. moment magnitude, M_w; surface wave magnitude, M_S; body-wave magnitude m_b; local magnitude M_L and duration magnitude M_d) whereas the maximum focal depth reaches up to 225-km. In order to provide homogenous data, the improved catalogue is unified in terms of M_w. Fore-and aftershocks were also removed from the catalogue and completeness analyses were performed both separately for various tectonic sources and as a whole for the study region of interest. Thus, the prepared homogenous and declustered catalogue consisting of 6573 events provides the basis for a reliable input to the seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey and its surrounding areas.     

The seasonal behavior of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">B</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis></Subscript> daily variations according to the monitoring at the Bishkek geodynamic site (1993–1995)

The algorithm for monitoring the magnetotelluric field has been briefly described, and the experimental data, obtained at the Bishkek geodynamic site, have been analyzed. The regularities in the seasonal behavior of the variations in the field vertical magnetic component have been revealed.