Understanding the causes and consequences of differential decision-making in adaptation research: Adapting to a delayed monsoon onset in Gujarat,India

Weather variability poses numerous risks to agricultural communities, yet farmers may be able to reduce some of these risks by adapting their cropping practices to better suit changes in weather. However, not all farmers respond to weather variability in the same way. To better identify the causes and consequences of this heterogeneous decision-making, we develop a framework that identifies (1) which socio-economic and biophysical factors are associated with heterogeneous cropping decisions in response to weather variability and (2) which cropping strategies are the most adaptive, considering economic outcomes (e.g., yields and profits). This framework aims to understand how, why, and how effectively farmers adapt to current weather variability; these findings, in turn, may contribute to a more mechanistic and predictive understanding of individual-level adaptation to future climate variability and change. To illustrate this framework, we assessed how 779 farmers responded to delayed monsoon onset in fifteen villages in Gujarat, India during the 2011 growing season, when the monsoon onset was delayed by three weeks. We found that farmers adopted a variety of strategies to cope with delayed monsoon onset, including increasing irrigation use, switching to more drought-tolerant crops, and/or delaying sowing. We found that farmers’ access to and choice of strategies varied with their assets, irrigation access, perceptions of weather, and risk aversion. Richer farmers with more irrigation access used high levels of irrigation, and this strategy was associated with the highest yields in our survey sample. Poorer farmers with less secure access to irrigation were more likely to push back planting dates or switch crop type, and economic data suggest that these strategies were beneficial for those who did not have secure access to irrigation. Interestingly, after controlling for assets and irrigation access, we found that cognitive factors, such as beliefs that the monsoon onset date had changed over the last 20 years or risk aversion, were associated with increased adaptation. Our framework illustrates the importance of considering the complexity and heterogeneity of individual decision-making when conducting climate impact assessments or when developing policies to enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities to future climate variability and change.     

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability

Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the performance of the system under different projections of climate change in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g. infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency of these measures due to a reduction of farmers’ willingness to cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food and water security under climate change.     

Human Strategies for Coping with El Niño Related Drought in Amazônia

This article reports on findings of a research project examining farmers' coping strategies in the Brazilian Amazon in response to El Niño related weather events. We examine the extent of vulnerability of small and large farmers to these events in a tropical rainforest environment. Little attention has been given to the impact of ENSO events in Amazônia, despite evidence for devastating fires during ENSOs. Although we found a range of locally developed forecasting techniques and coping mechanisms, farmers have sustained significant losses, and we suggest that increased access to scientific forecasts would greatly enhance the ability of the farmers in our study area to cope with El Niño related weather events. In Amazônia the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern leads to an extended period of reduced rainfall (Hobbs et al., 1998). This period of reduced rainfall can result in significant agricultural losses for farmers and ranchers in the area and in increased forest flammability. We have found that the majority of our study population uses several methods of forecasting, coping with, and adapting to drought events – and they recognize the economic losses they can experience and the loss of forests through the accidental spread of fire. The poorest farmers in our study area experience El Niño related drought events as a serious threat to their livelihoods. Their vulnerability is heightened during extreme climate events and our observations revealed that all of the farmers in our study would benefit from increased availability of improved forecast information relevant to their locality and their current farming strategies. This paper examines the availability and use of forecasts, the occurrence of accidental fires and techniques to prevent fire related losses, and the coping mechanisms for dealing with El Niño related drought in the agricultural regions surrounding the cities of Altamira and Santarém, in Pará State, Brazil. Distribution of an El Niño Prediction Kit at the end of the study and a series of workshops may lead to better local information on rainfall variability and create a farmer-maintained grid of collecting stations to sensitize farmers to the variability of precipitation in the region, and on their property.     

The influence of community-based resource management institutions on adaptation capacity: A large-n study of farmer responses to climate and global market disturbances

An underlying understanding among adaptation and community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) scholars is the existence of important feedbacks between local resource management institutions and individual adaptive capacity. The relationship between CBNRM and individual adaptive capacity is of global concern given the ubiquity of CBNRM worldwide, the patent impacts of global changes at local levels, and the recent calls for the integration of climate and rural development policies. So far, however, there have not been formal, large-n studies of that relationship. This study aims to fill that gap by testing whether the performance of community-based water management institutions and communal land regimes have an impact on the effectiveness of farmers’ adaptation responses to climatic and global market disturbances. For this purpose, the study relies on a unique dataset of individual and collective features obtained from water user associations (WUAs) and ejidos in Mexico. According to the regression results, well-functioning community-based water management institutions have a positive and significant impact on individual farmers’ self-reported response effectiveness. The impact of communal land property is also significant but negative. These effects, which hold only in the context of climate disturbances but not market disturbances, can be explained by looking at the support given by the associations to farmers, and issues of communal land marginalization, respectively. Policies that strengthen the autonomy and capacity for cooperation of WUAs and ameliorate structural deficits in communal land regimes shall not only guarantee a long-advocated path for rural development but also help farmers deal with some of the climatic uncertainties that increasingly threaten agriculture.     

Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends,irrigation, and climate beliefs

How individuals perceive climate change is linked to whether individuals support climate policies and whether they alter their own climate-related behaviors, yet climate perceptions may be influenced by many factors beyond local shifts in weather. Infrastructure designed to control or regulate natural resources may serve as an important lens through which people experience climate, and thus may influence perceptions. Likewise, perceptions may be influenced by personal beliefs about climate change and whether it is human-induced. Here we examine farmer perceptions of historical climate change, how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate, how perceptions are related to the presence of irrigation infrastructure, and how perceptions are related to beliefs and concerns about climate change. We focus on the regions of Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay in New Zealand, where irrigation is utilized on the majority of cropland. Data are obtained through analysis of historical climate records from local weather stations, interviews (n = 20), and a farmer survey (n = 490). Across both regions, no significant historical trends in annual precipitation and summer temperatures since 1980 are observed, but winter warming trends are significant at around 0.2–0.3 °C per decade. A large fraction of farmers perceived increases in annual rainfall despite instrumental records indicating no significant trends, a finding that may be related to greater perceived water availability associated with irrigation growth. A greater fraction of farmers perceived rainfall increases in Marlborough, where irrigation growth has been most substantial. We find those classes of farmers more likely to have irrigation were also significantly more likely to perceive an increase in annual rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that perceptions of changing climate – regardless of their accuracy – are correlated with increased belief in climate change and an increased concern for future climate impacts. Those farmers that believe climate change is occurring and is human induced are more likely to perceive temperature increases than farmers who believe climate change is not occurring and is not human induced. These results suggest that perceptions are influenced by a variety of personal and environmental factors, including infrastructure, which may in turn alter decisions about climate adaptation.     

Smallholder adaptation to climate change: dynamics and limits in Northern Ghana

Climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures in Northern Ghana and have caused further impoverishment of Ghana’s poorest region. Farmers have diversified their livelihoods to adapt to uncertain environmental conditions in various ways. While traditionally a diversification of the production and migration were the prime means of adaptation, many farmers have started to intensify their production by adopting shallow groundwater irrigation for vegetable gardening for Ghana’s urban markets. This has helped to cope with a changing environment, ameliorated poverty and reversed rural–urban migration, while the local hydrology curbed an over-exploitation of groundwater resources, commonly associated with an uncontrolled farmer-driven expansion of groundwater irrigation. This research confirms that farmer-driven small-scale irrigation can play an important role in the process of climate change adaptation. However, while farmers tried to integrate in the larger economy, they have become subject to market failures that in their essence are caused by unfair and unpredictable patterns of global trade. It is this double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalization that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed. Many convincing arguments call for the revision of some of the most unfair and devastating economic practices; however, the need to enhance adaptive capacity towards global climate change for poor parts of the population in the south should be added to the discussion.     

Pricing China's irrigation water

Many development agencies and other actors are advocating that China adopt a system of water markets or of high water prices in order to resolve the inefficiencies of irrigation agriculture and to supply sufficient water for growing urban and industrial uses. We argue that this proposal rests on a series of propositions: that the price of water is too low to encourage farmers to be efficient; that farmers are not charged volumetric prices and so are not encouraged to conserve water; that water is scarce largely because farmers are profligate in their use of water; and that proper pricing of water will not affect equity. None of these contentions is true. Farmers have to pay not only the official charges for water but also the much higher costs of pumping it onto their fields. Once pumping is included, farmers are paying prices that are volumetric. Furthermore, the inefficiency of farmers arises in large part from the manner in which water is delivered to them: the system offers no rewards for care in the use of water and instead rewards greed. And, finally, although it might be true that higher prices do not affect equity within a village, in fact they would have substantial effects on inter-sectoral equity, with farmers becoming worse off in comparison to urban dwellers. The paper concludes by sketching a more appropriate scheme for raising the efficiency of use of irrigation water.     

Smallholder farmers’ participation in climate change adaptation programmes: understanding preferences in Nepal

Globally, adaptation policies and programmes are being formulated to address climate change issues. However, in the agricultural sector, and particularly in least developed countries (LDCs), concerns remain as to whether these policies and programmes are consistent with farmers’ preferences. This study empirically investigates Nepalese farmers’ willingness to support the implementation of adaptation programmes. To this end, we first developed suggested adaptation programmes in accordance with the adaptation measures identified by LDCs in their National Adaptation Programmes of Actions. We then employed a choice experiment framework to estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for adaptation benefits. The findings indicate that the substantial benefits of the adaptation programmes for farmers result in a sizeable WTP to participate, which would appear to justify the programmes’ widespread implementation.

Key policy insights

• Farmers are willing to participate in, and contribute to, the suggested adaptation programmes in the form of increased access to climate adaptive crop species and varieties, improved soil quality and irrigation and the provision of training in climate adaptive farming.

• Key socio-economic factors influence farmers’ support of adaptation programmes. Older farmers, those households closer to government extension services, larger land holders, those involved in household labour exchange, farmers located in drought and flood-prone regions and those who perceive that the climate has changed are more likely to participate.

• The more farmers are aware of climate change impacts, the greater their preference for adaptation programmes. Increasing farmer awareness prior to implementation of such programmes is therefore an obvious means of further raising participation rates.

     

Smallholders adaptation to climate change in Mali

This study was undertaken to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Sikasso region of southern Mali, as part of an effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to integrate climate change adaptation considerations into their development projects. The region is considered to be the breadbasket of Mali, providing a substantial amount of the country’s food supplies as well as cotton for exchange earnings. The project had two components: modeling how climate change could affect production of cereal and cash crops in southern Mali; and conducting a stakeholder-driven vulnerability and adaptation assessment to identify potential options for addressing current and projected risks to agriculture from climate change. Projected changes in crop yields were based on a previous analysis that was extended for the purposes of this study. The projections suggested that the sensitivity of maize to changing weather conditions is relatively small (generally less than 10% change) under both dry and wet scenarios in 2030 and 2060. White (Irish) potatoes, the primary cash crop, are the most sensitive to changing weather conditions, with yields decreasing under both dry and wet conditions; yields could decrease by about 25% by 2060. Stakeholder workshops, field interviews, and an expert analysis were used to assess current and future climate-related vulnerability and to identify potential adaptation options. The main focus of the assessment was farmers in a village of about 3,000 people in the Sikasso region that practiced a rice-potato rotation system typical to the region. The farmers emphasized adaptation measures that require outside financial and technical assistance, for example installation of a water gate that would retain more water in the inland valley and increase the water table to flood rice fields during the rainy season and for furrow irrigation of potatoes during the dry season. Adaptations emphasized by both the farmers and representatives of regional technical services were crop diversification and germplasm improvement; soil and water management; access to equipment (plows, carts, oxen, and improved stoves); credit stockage villageois (CSV); and fertilizer.     

Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers’ choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints.     

Linking development to climate adaptation: Leveraging generic and specific capacities to reduce vulnerability to drought in NE Brazil

To respond to climate impact, poor agricultural households in less developed regions rely on different types of assets that define their overall adaptive capacity (AC). However not all assets build capacity equally. In this study we argue that building AC requires a combination of interventions that address not only climate-related risks (specific capacity) but also the structural deficits (e.g., lack of income, education, health, political power) (generic capacity) that shape vulnerability. Focusing on rainfed agriculture in NE Brazil, we investigate how households leverage and combine generic and specific capacities to reduce vulnerability. Particularly we explore: 1) the relative importance of different kinds of capacity in shaping vulnerability on these households and 2) how the level of generic capacities (particularly as a result of Brazil’s anti-poverty program Bolsa Família) influences the adoption of specific ones. We find that both kinds of capacity matter, as relatively higher levels of generic capacity (in terms of income in general, and climate-neutral income specifically) are associated with higher levels of specific capacity (irrigation). In addition we find that while Bolsa Família has been positive in increasing income, it has not been sufficient to manage the risk of food insecurity during drought events, suggesting a 'poverty trap' in which families are constantly coping with drought but failing to overcome the conditions that make them vulnerable. Our findings indicate that in order to decrease climate vulnerability of poor agricultural households, development interventions, such as anti-poverty programs, have to go beyond cash transfer and should incorporate risk management policies that enhance synergies between generic and specific capacities.     

Farmers’ coping response to the low flows in the lower Yellow River: A case study of temporal dimensions of vulnerability

Water scarcity in northern China has been a topic of concern in China for many years, but the increased frequency and duration of “no-flow” events in the Yellow River in the 1990s created a flurry of recent activity in the academic and policy arenas. These low-flow events severely disrupted the supply of irrigation water for agriculture in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and posed a substantial threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Within a broader effort to assess farmers’ vulnerability to water shortages, this qualitative research focuses on the coping mechanisms and adaptive strategies adopted by farming households in three villages in Shandong Province (Ma, Ding, and Xing). With increasing water stress and other stresses from land degradation and lack of market access, farmers’ coping mechanisms have evolved, expanding from one-time adjustments to long-term adaptations, and switching focus from securing reliable water sources to improving irrigation efficiency and diversifying both on-farm and off-farm production. The three villages have different vulnerability profiles and adopted different patterns of adaptive processes that reveal the key roles played by community leaders and the early innovators. The research presented here contributes a temporal and dynamic dimension to the study of vulnerability which is largely missing from the current literature, and provides practical insights about how to improve farmers’ adaptive capacities in the face of water shortages in northern China.     

Constraints,multiple stressors,and stratified adaptation: Pastoralist livelihood vulnerability in a semi-arid wildlife conservation context in Central Kenya

The focus of this study is on how changes in formal and informal institutions have differential impacts across populations in terms of vulnerability of livelihoods to drought, and the unequal processes that shape adaptation to new conditions. Drought vulnerability occurs as a result of exposure and sensitivity to interrelated economic, social, political, and ecological dynamics. There is a need for approaches that can evaluate how the ability to reduce these exposures and sensitivities becomes socially stratified. Building on our understanding of institutional and biophysical constraints in one pastoralist group ranch, we use an approach that draws on quantitative and qualitative data to combine analyses of entitlements, access, and adaptive capacity. We asked how, in a context of changing herding institutions, the ability to adapt to drought and other stressors, is differentiated among actors. We found that herders with higher livestock wealth are more likely to have entitlement sets that include factors that enable access to secure cattle grazing on private wildlife conservation lands, and access to more distant areas with herds of sheep and cattle – two key means of reducing exposure to drought vulnerability, leading to greater coping ability during drought. Those with lower livestock wealth rely disproportionately on illicit, precarious access to external grazing resources. Higher livestock wealth families experienced disproportionately lower sensitivity to drought with smaller losses of cattle, and likely have decreased sensitivity to drought-related market fluctuations, while others are primarily reliant on small stock and/or precarious access pathways. However, rather than naturalize this differential ability as merely increased adaptive capacity for some that are better able to adapt to novel, local conditions, we argue this instead reflects the unequal footing that households find themselves on, in a shifting institutional landscape of structural and relational access constraints and reconfigurations of reciprocity, that are intertwined with interventions by state and non-state actors.     

Social risk perceptions of climate change: A case study of farmers and agricultural advisors in northern California

Crop and livestock farmers must respond to climate change, including a range of physical and cultural impacts and risks. In rural northern California, farmers face extreme drought and catastrophic wildfires with increasing frequency. I draw on an extended case study of farmers and agricultural advisors in Siskiyou County to understand how rural agriculturalists perceive risks when navigating climate change discourses. While farmers are changing their management practices in response to the physical effects of climate change, many perceive substantial social risks within their communities if they align themselves publicly with climate change beliefs or actions. Perceived social consequences included loss of access to the benefits of membership in formal and informal farming groups. Efforts focused on educating or convincing farmers of climate science may, in some contexts, increase rather than decrease the perceived social risks of climate action. The framing of climate policies, programs, and practices – especially by public agricultural advisors like Cooperative Extension Advisors and local USDA staff (e.g., Farm Service Agency) – is important not only for increasing farmer participation, but also for reducing perceived social risks associated with climate change. Interventions that focus on livelihood impacts and validate existing land stewardship-oriented values have more potential to increase the pace and scale of climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture.     

A pioneer country? A history of Norwegian climate politics

The planning and phasing of adaptation responses are essential to tackle uncertainties and ensure positive outcomes while adapting to changing circumstances. Understanding the evolution of coping and adaptation responses and their capacities is a prerequisite for preparing an effective flood management plan for the future. The aim of this paper is to determine the effect of coping capacity on longer term adaptation responses in a flood risk management system. The objectives, requirements, targets, design, and performance of flood protection measures will have to be determined after taking into account, or in conjunction with, the coping capacities. A methodology has been developed and demonstrated based on an adaptation pathway approach to account for coping capacities and to assess the effect of these on flood protection measures. Application of this methodology for flood protection measures in Can Tho City in the Mekong Delta shows the effect of considering coping capacity for flood protection measures and the value in delaying the occurrence of tipping points. Coping measures such as elevating property floor levels can postpone the tipping points when dikes are no longer effective. Consideration of coping capacity in the system improves adaptation responses and leads to better adaptation outcomes.     

Analysis of Air Quality in Eastern China and its Interaction with Other Regions of the World

In this study, we used satellite data (GOME and MOPITT) together with a global chemical-transport-model of atmosphere (MOZART-2) to characterize the chemical/aerosol composition over eastern China. We then estimated the effects of local emissions in China on the chemical budgets in other regions of the world. Likewise, we also investigated the effects of air pollution from other regions on the chemical budget over eastern China. The study shows that the column CO and NO _x concentrations are also high in eastern China. The high CO and NO _x concentrations produce modest levels of O₃ concentrations during summer (about 40 to 50 ppbv) and very low O₃ during winter (about 10 to 20 ppbv) in eastern China. The calculated NO₂ column is fairly consistent from the GOME measurement. The calculated CO column is underestimated from the MOPITT measurement. One of the reasons of the underestimation of the predicted CO is due to a fact that the CO emissions were taken without considering the rapid increase of emissions from 1990 to 2000. The calculated surface O₃ is consistent with the measured values, with strong seasonal variations. However, the measurement is very limited, and more measurements in eastern China will be needed. The column NO₂ has a very strong seasonal variation in eastern China, with the highest concentrations during winter and the lowest concentrations during summer. The cause of this seasonal variability is mainly due to the seasonal changes in the chemical loss of NO _x , which is very high in summer and very low during winter. The effects of the local emissions in China and long-range transport from other regions on the chemical distributions in eastern China are studied. The results show that NO _x concentrations in eastern China are mostly caused by the local emissions in China, especially during the winter. The CO concentration over eastern China is from both the local emissions (30% to 40%) and the transport from other regions. Likewise, the CO emissions in China have an important effect on the other regions of the world, but the effect is limited in the northern hemisphere. The local emissions in China also have an important effect on surface O₃ concentrations. During winter, the local emissions reduce the surface O₃ concentrations by 30 to 50%. During summer, the local emissions produce about 50 to 70% of the O₃ concentration in eastern China.     

Micro hydropower: an alternative for climate change mitigation,adaptation, and development of marginalized local communities in Hispaniola Island

In this essay, we explore the contribution of establishing off-grid community micro-hydropower systems in the Dominican Republic to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Forty-five micro-hydropower systems were set up over 16 years that are sustainably and autonomously managed by the local groups and provide access to electricity to communities in remote areas while reducing CO₂ emissions and favoring carbon sequestration. In addition to mitigating climate change by avoiding emissions and reforestation of more than 28,000 t of CO₂ per year, these initiatives have improved the adaptive capacity of the local communities through contributing to biodiversity protection, climate policy development, and governance; as well as enhancing the wellbeing of families through increased savings, improved education, and increased income generation opportunities. We elaborate the key factors for success and considerations for meeting future challenges.     

Paper 5. climate change impacts on the energy sector and possible adjustments in the mink region

The discussion reviews the prevailing pattern of energy demand and supply in the MINK states, speculates on the region's long-term energy future in the absence and presence of greenhouse warming, and, in the latter case, considers energy sector adaptation to such a prospect. Climate-sensitive energydemand is dominated by heating and cooling in various sectors of the regional economy (around 20% of regional energy consumption) and by such agricultural applications as irrigation pumping and crop drying (around 5%). A climate-sensitive energysupply issue of some importance is the region's partial dependence on hydroelectric capacity in the upper Missouri river basin. The analysis finds that, unlike the rather significant impacts likely to be experienced by other sectors of the regional economy, the hypothesized warming trend will translate into only small net increases in energy demand; and that technological possibilities and policy measures are available to mute any serious climatic effects on the energy sector.