Frequency analysis of photometric observations of HD 101158

Observations of solar radio emission at 3 cm wavelength have been made at Japal-Rangapur Observatory for 1980–1981, the solar maximum year using the 3 m radio telescope. The correlation between microwave solar emissions and the sunspot activity on monthly basis has been found to be high during the maximum phase and in the high cm wavelength band. The basic component has been estimated statistically for successive solar rotations using the data obtained at Japal-Rangapur Observatory. Further, this was compared with the data obtained at other cm wavelengths during 1980–1981 and the solar minimum period 1975–1976 of the 21st cycle. The comparison showed pronounced dips in flux levels at different wavelengths during the summer months of the solar maximum year which may be attributed to the presence of coronal holes in the various levels of the solar atmosphere. The computed basic component values showed pronounced variation at high cm wavelengths for the solar maximum period with dissimilar variations at different wavelengths. During the solar minimum period the variations were negligibly small and showed more or less constant level of activity.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

Historical Dataset Reconstruction and a Prediction Method of Solar 10.7 cm Radio Flux

We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7.     

Solar indices and solar u.v.-irradiances

Solar radio fluxes, Zurich relative sunspot number R_z, and Solar Call plage indexes daily values for the period 1957–1980 are analyzed in order to test the stability of the series with respect to time and solar activity. It is found that between the series of the 3,8 and 10 cm radio fluxes and the series of R_z no significant trend with time, solar activity or solar cycle exists when mean values for periods of the order of one year are considered.Then, the daily solar u.v.-irradiances measured since 1969 for H-Lyman-alpha and-beta, the Hel-resonance line and HeII-Lyman-alpha are compared with the 10.7 cm radio fluxes and adjusted. After adjustment, the behaviour of the four series of irradiances with respect to the 10.7 cm flux shows a similar structure as the behaviour typical for the series of the 3 cm or the 8 cm fluxes.This adjustment allows the determination of the slope of the mean variation of the u.v.-irradiances with solar activity. The increases from solar minimum to solar maximum related to the minimum values are respectively : 60% for H-Lyman-alpha, 80% for H-Lyman-beta and 90% for Hel and Hell.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: Sunspot Cycle Characteristics

We examine the `Group' sunspot numbers constructed by Hoyt and Schatten to determine their utility in characterizing the solar activity cycle. We compare smoothed monthly Group sunspot numbers to Zürich (International) sunspot numbers, 10.7-cm radio flux, and total sunspot area. We find that the Zürich numbers follow the 10.7-cm radio flux and total sunspot area measurements only slightly better than the Group numbers. We examine several significant characteristics of the sunspot cycle using both Group numbers and Zürich numbers. We find that the `Waldmeier Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the elapsed time between minimum and maximum of a cycle – is much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Period Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the length of the previous cycle from minimum to minimum – is also much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Minimum Effect' – the correlation between cycle amplitude and the activity level at the previous (onset) minimum is equally apparent in both the Zürich numbers and the Group numbers. The `Even–Odd Effect' – in which odd-numbered cycles are larger than their even-numbered precursors – is somewhat stronger in the Group numbers but with a tighter relationship in the Zürich numbers. The `Secular Trend' – the increase in cycle amplitudes since the Maunder Minimum – is much stronger in Group numbers. After removing this trend we find little evidence for multi-cycle periodicities like the 80-year Gleissberg cycle or the two- and three-cycle periodicities. We also find little evidence for a correlation between the amplitude of a cycle and its period or for a bimodal distribution of cycle periods. We conclude that the Group numbers are most useful for extending the sunspot cycle data further back in time and thereby adding more cycles and improving the statistics. However, the Zürich numbers are slightly more useful for characterizing the on-going levels of solar activity.     

Evolution of the Green Corona in 1996–2002

We analysed the green-line coronal intensities (530.3 nm, Fexiv), both their time- latitudinal distribution as well as the coronal index of solar activity (CI) over the period 1996–2002. Maximum values of the CI (smoothed) were observed in mid-August 2001, even though the `first' peak was observed in the period January–April 2000. The maximum of the Wolf number occurred in 2000, April – July, and the `second peak' occurred in December 2001–March 2002. Both indices have a similar course in the cycle, but their maxima are shifted by 1.5 year. There was high correlation between CI and Wolf number, the 2800 MHz radio flux, the X-ray 0.1–0.8 nm flux and cosmic-ray flux. The CI values in present cycle 23 are lower than those of the two former solar cycles 21 and 22 by about 1/3. Polar branches, which separated from the principal equatorward branch at mid-latitudes in the cycle minimum, 1996, reached the poles around 2000. The new principal branch for cycle 24 split in 2001, turned over around ±60° in 2002.5 and moves to the equator, where it will end in 2019. Minimum between cycles 23 and 24 will occur around 2007.5, cycle maximum 24 around 2012.5. Poleward branches in cycle 24 will reach the solar poles in 2011.     

A Search for Periodicities in F10.7 Solar Radio Flux Data

The radio frequency emission at 10.7 cm (or 2800 MHz) wavelength (considered as solar flux density) out of different possible wavelengths is usually selected to identify periodicities because of its high correlation with solar extreme ultraviolet radiation as well as its complete and long observational record other than sunspot related indices. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wavelength plays a very valuable role for forecasting the space weather because it is originated from lower corona and chromospheres region of the Sun. Also, solar radio flux is a magnificent indicator of major solar activity. Here in the present work the solar radio flux data from 1965 to 2014 observed at the Domimion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbiahas been processed using Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) to identify predominant periods within the data along with their confidence levels. Also, the multi-taper method (MTM) for periodicity analysis is used to validate the observed periods. Present investigation exhibits multiperiodicity of the time series F10.7 solar radio flux data around 27, 57, 78, 127, 157, 4096 days etc. The observed periods are also compared with the periods of MgII Index data using same algorithm as MgII Index data has 99.9% correlation with F10.7 Solar Radio Flux data. It can be observed that the MgII index data exhibits similar periodicities with very high confidence levels.Present investigation also clearly indicates that the computed results are very much confining with the results obtained in different communication for the similar data of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux as well as for the other solar activities.

     

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.     

Two Unusual Episodes of ≈13-Day Variations II. Implications for the Solar Radio Flux Density, <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>10.7 cm</Subscript>

Additional analysis of the behavior of the international sunspot number (R) series and the solar radio flux density (F_{10.7 cm}) series during two long (250–500 days) and distinct episodes of persistent ≈13-day variations (Crane, Solar Phys. 1998, 253, 177) is reported. The conclusion is that while the center-to-limb behavior of R does not change between solar minimum and solar maximum, F_{10.7 cm} exhibits significantly less limb brightening at solar maximum than at solar minimum.     

Brightness variations of the white light corona during the years 1964–67

Observations of the white light corona were made on over 900 days during the years 1964–67 at heights between 1.125 and 2.0 R with the K-coronameter at Mount Haleakala and Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The brightness distribution of the minimum corona was elliptical with average equatorial intensities three times the polar. Coronal features of the new cycle at 1.125 R occurred predominantly in the sunspot zones at 25–30° latitude and in a high latitude zone which migrated toward the North pole before solar maximum. The brightness of the inner corona doubled over this period and a close association is found between the average corona and 10.7-cm solar radio flux. Electron densities in the equatorial regions were nearly twice those of Van de Hulst's model corona, in agreement with the results of recent eclipse observations.At Hawaii Institute of Geophysics.     

Prominences and the Green Corona Over the Solar Activity Cycle

Prominences, in contrast to other solar activity features, may appear at all heliographic latitudes. The position of zones where prominences are mainly concentrated depends on the cycle phase of solar activity. It is shown, for prominence observations made at Lomnický tít over the period 1967–1996, how the position of prominence zones changes over a solar cycle, and how these zones could be connected with other solar activity features. Our results obtained could be an additional source to do a better prediction of solar activity. Time-latitudinal distribution is also shown for the green corona (Fexiv, 530.3 nm). Distribution of the green coronal maxima shows that there are equator-migrating zones in the solar corona that migrate from latitudes of 45° (starting approximately 2–3 years after the cycle start) to higher latitudes 70°, and then turn (around the cycle maximum) towards the equator, reaching the equator in the next minimum (this duration lasts 18–19 years). Polar branches separate from these zones at the cycle minimum (2–3 years before above-mentioned zones) at latitudes of 50°, reaching the poles at the maximum of the present cycle. The picture becomes dim when more polar prominence zones are observed. Prominences show both the poleward and equatorward migration. Comparison between both solar activity features is also discussed.     

Periodicity in the Basal Component of Radio Emission During Maximum and Minimum Solar Activity

The basal component of radio emission is the radio intensity obtained after subtracting the sunspot-dependent (magneto-active) component from the observed flux and finally deducting the steady part from this subtracted value. The periodicity of this basal component of solar radio emission in the frequency band 0.245–15.4 GHz was studied both for the solar maximum (1980 and 1991) and minimum (1975 and 1986) periods. A constant periodicity of 35 days was observed in the entire radio band under study during the periods of maximum solar activity, whereas the periodicity fluctuates harmonically with frequency during the minimum periods, giving rise to an average time period of approximately 54 days.     

Periodicities of solar irradiance and solar activity indices,I

Using a standard FFT time series analysis, our results show an 8–11 months periodicity in the solar total and UV irradiances, 10.7 cm radio flux, Ca-K plage index, and sunspot blocking function. The physical origin of this period is not known, but the evidence in the results exclude the possibility that the observed period is a harmonic due to the FFT transform or detrending. Periods at 150–157 and 51 days are found in those solar data which are related to strong magnetic fields. The 51-day period is the dominant period in the projected areas of developing complex sunspot groups, but it is missing from the old decaying sunspot areas. This evidence suggests that the 51-day period is related to the emergence of new magnetic fields. A strong 13.5-day period is found in the total irradiance and projected areas of developing complex groups. This confirms those results (e.g., Donnelly et al., 1983, 1984; Bai, 1987, 1989) which show that active centers are located 180 deg apart from each other.Our study also shows that the modulation of various solar data due to the 27-day solar rotation is more pronounced during the declining portion of solar cycle than during the rising portion. This arises from that the active regions and their magnetic fields are better organized and more long-lived during the maximum and declining portion of solar cycle than during its rising portion.     

Imaging the Sun at 21 cm: Budgetting the S-component

On fourteen days in July and August 1992 and June 1993, we used the 7-element synthesis radio telescope at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory to make full-disc, arc-min resolution images of the Sun at 21 cm, with the objective of budgetting the contributions to the slowly-varying component of solar radio emission. This instrument has the advantage that the mapping field at this wavelength is about 2.5° wide. However, it has also the severe disadvantage that with only 12 hours to record each image, the brightness distribution is severely undersampled. This difficulty, along with solar rotation and declination motion during each observation, required development of special image correction procedures.The two observing sessions spanned about 25% of the activity range over a solar cycle. Over this range, comparable contributions to the slowly-varying component came from active region sources and a weak emission, widely-distributed over the solar disk. Both these contributions are correlated with the total photospheric magnetic flux and with the 10.7 cm flux.     

Hβ luminosity of extragalactic objects and evolution of galaxies

Hourly interplanetary proton plasma data, measured by Helios-1 and Helios-2 heliocentric satellites over the period extending between the sunspot minimum and maximum of the 21rst solar cycle are analysed. This analysis gives an emphasis in the presence of a third type solar wind (intermediate) at 450 km s^–1, appearing at solar minimum, during which large coronal holes are dominating in the Sun. This type of solar wind is hardly to be observed during the solar maximum period.Both Helios-1 and Helios-2 data give an average speed of the slow solar wind of 350 km s^–1 for the period between these two extremes of solar activities.After correlation of the plasma temperature with its speed in different heliocentric distances, it comes out the stronger heating which takes place in distances shorter than 0.6 AU than in distances between 0.6 and 1.0 AU.A different behaviour of the radial proton temperature gradient in different solar activities appears after the calculation of the gradients as a function of solar wind speed and radial distance.     

Estimation of long-term density variations in the upper atmosphere of the earth at minimums of solar activity from evolution of the orbital parameters of the earth’s artificial satellites

Long-term data on the evolution of the parameters of motion of 15 artificial satellites of the Earth in orbits with minimal heights of 400–1100 km were used to study the density variations in the upper atmosphere at minimums of four cycles of solar activity. It was found that the density at these heights considered increased by about 7% at the minimum of solar cycle 20 as compared to solar cycle 19. Later, the density fell rather linearly at the minimums of cycles 21 and 22. The statistical processing of the data for solar cycles 20–22 demonstrated that the density decreased by 4.6% over ten years and by 9.9% over 20 years. Analyzing the density variations during the four cycles of solar activity, we found that the long-term decrease in density observed at the minimums of cycles 20–22 is caused mainly by specific variations of the solar activity parameters (namely, the solar radio flux and the level of geomagnetic disturbance).__________Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 39, No. 2, 2005, pp. 177–183.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Volkov, Suevalov.     

Cosmic-ray Periodicity at 170 Days

Power-spectral analysis of cosmic-ray indices (CRI) data for the years 1989–1991 shows a 170-day periodicity of cosmic rays. The periodicity is related to a strong magnetic field. Power-spectral analysis of the long-term periodicity (11 years) of the CRI data for the years 1953–1997 shows that the period 1989–1991 is a unique one in the sense of the discussed pronounced periodicity. The 170-day periodicity of cosmic rays was interpreted in the base of six solar rotations (1 SR = 28.3-day periodicity of 10.7 cm solar radio flux) and may be connected to the instability of the solar core.     

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

In this paper we present a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the Sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceeding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, we evaluate the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors which are physically related to the Sun's polar field. We subject these indicators to a rigorous statistical analysis, and specify in detail the analysis technique for each indicator in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. We find that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima.We also present a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. We then apply the scheme to the current cycle 22, and estimate a maximum smoothed International sunspot number of 171 ± 26, which can be expressed alternatively as a smoothed 2800 MHz radio flux (F _10.7) of 211 ± 23 × (10^–22 Wm^–2Hz^–1), or as a smoothed sunspot area of 2660 ± 430 millionths of a solar disk. Once the actual maximum for cycle 22 has been established, we will have both additional statistics for all the proxy indicators, and a clearer indication of how accurately the present scheme can predict solar activity levels.     

Identifying the quasi-regular and stochastic components of solar cyclicity and their properties

We have averaged over every Carrington semi-rotation (C.s.-r.), the daily Wolf numbers (RW), total areas of sunspot groups (SA), the 10.7-cm radio flux (F _10.7), and the modulus of the mean magnetic field (|SMMF|). The fractal method of scaling the variance of time series was used to separate the regular and stochastic components. The manifestation of chaotic and stochastic properties of these components was investigated by testing with the methods of chaotic dynamics, as well as with two new methods: (1) close return maps; and (2) multivariate scaling analysis. Results: (1) by separating time series of global indices of solar activity, it is possible to identify the quasi-regular (the quasi-regularity is caused not by the absolute smoothness of the function) component on time scales longer than two years, and the irregular component on time scales shorter than two years; (2) the regular component has the properties of a nonlinear quasi-periodic oscillator; (3) the irregular component is a random one and has the properties of chromatic noise; and (4) by investigating the nonlinear connection of the solar activity indices under consideration it was found that such a connection is strong between F _10.7and RW. A nonlinear correlation between the attractors RW–|SMMF| and F _10.7–|SMMF| was also revealed.     

Variation of solar irradiance and mode frequencies during Maunder minimum

Using the sunspot numbers reported during the Maunder minimum and the empirical relations between the mode frequencies and solar activity indices, the variations in the total solar irradiance and 10.7 cm radio flux for the period 1645 to 1715 is estimated. We find that the total solar irradiance and radio flux during the Maunder minimum decreased by 0.19% and 52% respectively, as compared to the values for solar cycle 22. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparison of single-site interplanetary scintillation solar wind speed structure with coronal features

Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Observations were made during the period 1984–1990 using a single radio telescope at 103 MHz situated at Thaltej (Ahmedabad), India. Solar wind speeds were estimated using a recently developed method based on matching the observed IPS spectra with model solar wind spectra for Kolmogorov turbulence. The best-fit speeds derived are traced back to a source surface, and average velocity maps are made for each year, averaging over a number of Carrington rotations. It is found that the resulting single-site, large-scale IPS speed structure agrees well with that derived from 3-site observations from earlier workers. The IPS speed structure during this period was compared with other coronal features. Nearly 85% of the observed high-speed regions were associated with coronal holes. At solar minimum, in 1986, a quasi-sinusoidal, narrow belt of slow solar wind was observed which matched well with the neutral line structure of the solar magnetic field and the belt of active centers. Near solar maximum, in 1990, the speed structure was chaotic, similar to that of the neutral line, with low speed regions appearing all over the source surface.