海啸灾害及其预警系统

地震海啸是最严重的自然灾害之一。2004年底印度洋大海啸更是震撼了全世界。本文对海啸的定义、性质、特征,历史上和近代的中国和世界的严重海啸灾害作了简单介绍。指出建立和完善海啸预警系统,可以在一旦海啸发生后,争取几十分钟甚至几小时时间,提前发出海啸警报信息,这就能极大地减轻海啸灾害。本文简单地介绍了海啸预警系统的主要内容。     

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.     

葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(DETWS)

本文介绍了葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(Destructive Earthquakes and Tsunami Warning System)的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布。     

Features and formation processes of multiple deposition layers from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami at Ban Nam Kem,southern Thailand

Multiple‐layered tsunami deposits have been frequently reported from coastal stratigraphic sequences, but the formation processes of these layers remain uncertain. A terrestrial sandy deposit formed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was investigated at Ban Nam Kem, southern Thailand. Four internal layers induced by two tsunami waves were identified in the tsunami deposit. Sedimentary structures indicated that two units were formed by run‐up currents caused by the tsunami and the other two units were deposited by the backwash flows. Graded bedding was common in the layers, but inverse grading was observed at limited intervals on the surveyed transects. The characteristics of the multiple‐layered tsunami deposit vary remarkably over a very short distance (<1 m) in response to the local topography. Remarkable asymmetries in thickness and grain‐size distribution are recognized between the run‐up and backwash flow deposits. On the basis of the interpretation of sedimentary structures, the formation process of the multiple‐layered tsunami deposit observed in this study can be explained in a schematic model as the modification of the ideal tsunami sequence by local erosion and the asymmetric hydraulic properties of tsunami waves, such as the maximum shear velocity and the heterogeneity of the flow velocity field.     

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra Tsunami: Analysis of Tide Gauge Data from the World Ocean Part 1. Indian Ocean and South Africa

The M_w = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the northwest coast of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean generated a catastrophic tsunami that was recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the World Ocean. Part 1 of our study of this event examines tide gauge measurements from the Indian Ocean region, at sites located from a few hundred to several thousand kilometers from the source area. Statistical characteristics of the tsunami waves, including wave height, duration, and arrival time, are determined, along with spectral properties of the tsunami records.     

Tsunami Intensity Mapping Along the Coast of Tamilnadu (India) During the Deadliest Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004

This paper presents tsunami intensity mapping and damage patterns along the surveyed coast of Tamilnadu (India) of the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries bordering the Indian Ocean. A twelve-stage tsunami intensity scale proposed by Papadopoulos and Imamura (2001) was followed to assign the intensity at the visited localities. Along the coast of the Indian mainland, tsunami damage sustained exclusively. Most severe damage was observed in Nagapattinam Beach, Nabiyarnagar, Vellaipalyam, and the Nagapattinam Port of Nagapattinum District on the east coast and Keelamanakudy village of Kanyakumari District on the western coast of Tamilnadu. The maximum assigned tsunami intensity was X+ at these localities. Minimum intensity V⁺ was received along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram Districts in Palk Strait. The general observation reported by many people was that the first arrival was a tsunami crest. The largest tsunami waves were first arrivals on the eastern coast and the second arrivals on the western coast. Along the coast, people were unaware of the tsunami, and no anomalous behavior of ocean animals was reported. Good correlation was observed between the severity of damage and the presence of shadow zone of Sri Lanka, reflected waves from Sri Lanka and the Maldives Islands, variation in the width of the continental shelf, elevation of the coast and the presence of breakwaters. The presence of medu (naturally elevated landmass very close to the sea shore and elongated parallel to the coast) reduced the impact of the tsunami on the built environment.     

Review of the 2018 Palu Tsunami:Disaster Behavior and Reflections on Disaster Management

The 2018 Palu M_W7.5 earthquake and tsunami attracted geophysicists'' attention for its strike slip focal mechanism and magnitude. We inspected the details of this disaster and discussed its particularity and possible causations. The submarine landslide and special terrain conditions could have contributed to the unusual size of the tsunami. The early warning system and the post disaster response is also reviewed. Efficient social warnings and broadcast systems along with good maintenance is essential. We also found that enhancing publics scientific literacy is the most important way to reduce disaster damage and casualties. Moreover, social conditions and rebuilding difficulties post tsunami are related as reference resources for future disaster management strategies.     

Field Measurements and Numerical Simulations of the 2004 Tsunami Impact on the East Coast of Sri Lanka

This paper employs a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004, to identify and interpret the factors that have contributed to the significant spatial variability of the level of tsunami impact along the coastal belt of the eastern province of Sri Lanka. The model results considered in the present analysis include the distribution of the amplitude of the tsunami and the pattern of wave propagation over the continental shelf off the east coast, while the field data examined comprise the maximum water levels measured at or near the shoreline, the horizontal inundation distances and the number of housing and other buildings damaged. The computed maximum amplitude of the tsunami at water points nearest the shoreline along the east coast shows considerable variation ranging from 2.2 m to 11.4 m with a mean value of 5.7 m; moreover, the computed amplitudes agree well with the available field measurements. We also show that the shelf bathymetry off the east coast, particularly the submarine canyons at several locations, significantly influences the near-shore transformation of tsunami waves, and consequently, the spatial variation of the maximum water levels along the coastline. The measured values of inundation also show significant variation along the east coast and range from 70 m to 4560 m with a median value of 700 m. Our analyses of field data also show the dominant influence of the coastal topography and geomorphology on the extent of tsunami inundation. Furthermore, the measured inundation distances indicate no apparent correlation with the computed tsunami heights at the respective locations. We also show that both the computed tsunami heights and the measured inundation distances for the east coast closely follow the log-normal statistical distribution.     

The main issues affecting coasts of the Indian and western Pacific Oceans: a meta-analysis from Seas at the Millennium

A review of the world oceans in three volumes by 365 scientists, provides scope for several ‘meta-analyses' of the main problems affecting over 100 areas in the year 2000. This article summarises the main issues affecting a sub-set of the reviewed areas, covering Asian, African and Arabian countries dealt with in Volume 2, which included over 50 articles. From all issues raised, assessment is made of the nature of the major ones, including evaluation of reasons why so many of them remain important issues after so much attention to them. These include long standing problems, several problems more newly flagged as becoming particularly important, the issue of global warming and no less than three related issues connected with fishing and over exploitation. One or two issues such as industrial pollution and sewage, previously considered of almost universal concern, almost traditional pollution issues even, continue to feature strongly for some countries, but while these were almost always referred to in Seas chapters, by and large these categories appear not to be the most pressing of issues today, except in localized areas (albeit areas where huge numbers of people live). Perhaps other issues have simply taken over. They are excluded from this article.     

Field Survey of Tsunami Effects in Sri Lanka due to the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake of December 26, 2004

The December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that registered a moment magnitude (M_w) of 9.1 was one of the largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. The devastating tsunami that resulted from this earthquake caused more casualties than any previously reported tsunami. The number of fatalities and missing persons in the most seriously affected countries were Indonesia - 167,736, Sri Lanka - 35,322, India - 18,045 and Thailand - 8,212. This paper describes two field visits to assess tsunami effects in Sri Lanka by a combined team of Japanese and Sri Lankan researchers. The first field visit from December 30, 2004 – January 04, 2005 covered the western and southern coasts of Sri Lanka including the cities of Moratuwa, Beruwala, Bentota, Pereliya, Hikkaduwa, Galle, Talpe, Matara, Tangalla and Hambantota. The objectives of the first field visit were to investigate the damage caused by the tsunami and to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times. The second field visit from March 10–18, 2005 covered the eastern and southern coasts of Sri Lanka and included Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Arugam Bay, Yala National Park and Kirinda. The objectives of the second visit were mainly to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times and inundation data, and to take relevant measurements using GPS instruments.     

Foraminiferal evidence of submarine sediment transport and deposition by backwash during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Micropaleontological analysis of nearshore to offshore sediments recovered from the southwestern coast of Thailand was performed to clarify the submarine processes of sediment transport and deposition during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The distribution pattern of benthic foraminifers showed seaward migration after the tsunami event. Agglutinated foraminifers, which are characteristic of an intertidal brackish environment, were identified in the post-tsunami samples from foreshore to offshore zones. These suggest that sediments originally distributed in foreshore to nearshore zones were transported offshore due to the tsunami backwash. On the other hand, the distribution pattern of planktonic and benthic species living in offshore zones showed slight evidence of landward migration by the tsunami. This suggests that landward redistribution of sediments by the tsunami run-up did not occur in the offshore seafloor of the study area. Our results and a review of previous studies provide an interpretation of submarine sedimentation by tsunamis. It is possible that tsunami backwashes induce sediment flows that transport a large amount of coastal materials seaward. Thus, traces of paleotsunami backwashes can be identified in offshore sedimentary environments as the accumulation of allochthonous materials. This can be recognized as changes in benthic foraminiferal assemblages.     

Regional variation of Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients in the Eastern Pacific

Seismograms recorded for five earthquakes on the east Pacific rise have been analyzed to obtain the attenuation coefficients of the fundamental Rayleigh mode for the eastern Pacific in the 15–110 second period range. The attenuation coefficients have been obtained using two new methods, a reference-station method, and an iterative method by which the seismic moment and regionalized attenuation coefficient values are obtained simultaneously after considering the effect of the source directivity and time-function. The reference-station method was applied to the entire eastern Pacific, excluding paths along the east Pacific rise. When using the iterative method we divided the eastern Pacific into three sub-regions, designated as the north-eastern Pacific, the Nazca plate and the east Pacific rise. Although much scatter is present, the data suggest that attenuation coefficients for the Nazca plate are higher than those for the northeastern Pacific, and both are substantially higher than average values obtained for the entire Pacific Ocean. Two paths that lie along or near the east Pacific rise are characterized by especially high attenuation coefficients. These values suggest that a low-Q zone exists beneath that narrow feature.     

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

印度洋大地震与海啸灾害综述

2004年12月26日8时58分,印尼苏门答腊岛附近海域发生M8.7地震（百年以来第5次大地震）,其引发的海啸波及了东南亚和南亚至少10个国家,截至2005年3月5日已造成28万人死亡和重大财产损失.这是自1964年3月以来世界上发生的最强烈地震,此次海啸是1900年以来这一地区发生的最大海啸.叙述了此次地震和海啸的破坏情况以及受灾国的应急救援工作和国际社会的反应.概述了地震海啸灾害及其研究简况.     

2004年12月26日印尼8.7级地震综述

本文给出了2004年12月26日印尼8．7级大地震的基本参数、区域构造背景、地震及海啸的损失情况及各国的应急反应,并提出了一些有益的建议。     

Seabirds indicate changes in the composition of plastic litter in the Atlantic and south-western Indian Oceans

I compare plastic ingested by five species of seabirds sampled in the 1980s and again in 1999-2006. The numbers of ingested plastic particles have not changed significantly, but the proportion of virgin pellets has decreased 44-79% in all five species: great shearwater Puffinus gravis, white-chinned petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis, broad-billed prion Pachyptila vittata, white-faced storm petrel Pelagodroma marina and white-bellied storm petrel Fregetta grallaria. The populations sampled range widely in the South Atlantic and western Indian Oceans. The most marked reduction occurred in great shearwaters, where the average number of pellets per bird decreased from 10.5 to 1.6. This species migrates between the South and North Atlantic each year. Similar decreases in virgin pellets have been recorded in short-tailed shearwaters Puffinus tenuirostris in the Pacific Ocean and northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis in the North Sea. More data are needed on the relationship between plastic loads in seabirds and the density of plastic at sea in their foraging areas, but the consistent decrease in pellets in birds suggests there has been a global change in the composition of small plastic debris at sea over the last two decades.     

日本东海岸9.0级地震应对给我国地震应急的启示

2011年3月11日日本东北近海9.0级地震及伴发海啸造成了重大的人员伤亡和经济损失.本文介绍了这次灾害的特点和震后应急救灾行动,总结了此次应急的经验和不足,并对我国防震减灾工作提出了几点启示.     

夏季西北太平洋大气环流异常及其与热带印度洋—太平洋海温变化的关系

本文分析了夏季西北太平洋大气环流异常特征及其与海温变化的关系,发现夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋/气旋(WNPAC/WNPC)是西北太平洋地区对流层中低层存在的重要大气环流异常现象,与东亚—西北太平洋低纬度至高纬度的经向PJ波列及欧亚中高纬度东西纬向波列的变化有关,通过与中高纬度环流变化的联系,对东亚及欧亚中高纬度气候有重要影响.夏季WNPAC/WNPC与热带海温变化的关系存在明显的不对称性,显著的WNPAC一般出现在El Niño衰减年夏季,与前期El Niño成熟年冬季的赤道东太平洋暖海温异常和El Niño衰减年春夏季印度洋海盆尺度的暖海温异常有明显的正相关关系,进一步表明了WNPAC在El Niño事件影响夏季气候中的重要桥梁作用;而夏季显著的WNPC与前期和同期热带海温变化的关系存在明显的不确定性,主要与夏季热带印度洋和赤道中东太平洋之间东暖西冷的热力差异异常引起的孟加拉湾—赤道西太平洋西风异常有关.进一步分析WNPAC/WNPC与海温变化关系不对称的可能原因,发现El Niño和La Niña衰减年夏季热带印度洋和太平洋海温变化所引起的印—太之间海温(热力)差异的一致性特征可能是导致WNPAC/WNPC与海温变化关系不对称的主要原因.     

南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响

印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature,简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡,并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关,在冬、春达到最大,并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响,对应偶极子正位相,次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱;副高加强且南撤、西伸,南亚高压偏强且位置偏东,易形成我国长江流域降水偏多,华南降水偏少;负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio-Southern Oscillation,简称ENSO）的特征.     

The effects of wind and rainfall on suspended sediment concentration related to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The effects of rainfall and wind speed on the dynamics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC), during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, were analyzed using spatial statistical models. The results showed a positive effect of wind speed on SSC, and inconsistent effects (positive and negative) of rainfall on SSC. The effects of wind speed and rainfall on SSC weakened immediately around the tsunami, indicating tsunami-caused floods and earthquake-induced shaking may have suddenly disturbed the ocean–atmosphere interaction processes, and thus weakened the effects of wind speed and rainfall on SSC. Wind speed and rainfall increased markedly, and reached their maximum values immediately after the tsunami week. Rainfall at this particular week exceeded twice the average for the same period over the previous 4 years. The tsunami-affected air–sea interactions may have increased both wind speed and rainfall immediately after the tsunami week, which directly lead to the variations in SSC.