Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here, the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching ‘resistance’) of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular, a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Significantly, this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed, for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk, it is shown that the potential benefit of this ‘local’ management imperative is equivalent to ∼2.0-2.5 °C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case, a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents.     

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.     

Modelling larval dispersal and settlement of the reef-building polychaete Sabellaria alveolata: Role of hydroclimatic processes on the sustainability of biogenic reefs

The honeycomb worm Sabellaria alveolata forms biogenic reefs which constitute diversity hotspots on tidal flats. The largest known reefs in Europe, located in the Bay of Mont-Saint-Michel (English Channel), are suffering increasing anthropogenic disturbances which raise the question of their sustainability. As the ability to recover depends partly on the recolonization of damaged reefs by larval supply, evaluating larval dispersal and the connectivity between distant reefs is a major challenge for their conservation. In the present study, we used a 3D biophysical model to simulate larval dispersal under realistic hydroclimatic conditions and estimate larval retention and exchanges among the two reefs of different sizes within the bay. The model takes into account fine-scale hydrodynamic circulation (800×800 m²), advection–diffusion larval transport, and gregarious settlement behaviour. According to the field data, larval dispersal was simulated for a minimal planktonic larval duration ranging from 4 to 8 weeks and the larval mortality was set to 0.09 d⁻¹. The results highlighted the role played by a coastal eddy on larval retention within the bay, as suggested by previous in situ observations. Very different dispersal patterns were revealed depending on the spawning reef location, although the two reefs were located only 15 km apart. The settlement success of the larvae released from the smallest reef was mainly related to tidal conditions at spawning, with the highest settlement success for releases at neap tide. The settlement success of the larvae from the biggest reef was more dependent on meteorological conditions: favourable W and SW winds may promote a ten-fold increase in settlement success. Strong year-to-year variability was observed in settlers’ numbers, with favourable environmental windows not always coinciding with the main reproductive periods of Sabellaria. Settlement kinetics indicated that the ability to delay metamorphosis could significantly improve the settlement success. Although bidirectional exchanges occurred between the two reefs, the highest settlers’ numbers originated from the biggest reef because of its stronger reproductive output. Because of the recent decline of this reef due to increasing anthropogenic disturbances larval supply in the bay may not be sufficient enough to ensure the sustainability of the remarkable habitat formed by Sabellaria alveolata reefs.     

Informing policy to protect coastal coral reefs: Insight from a global review of reducing agricultural pollution to coastal ecosystems

The continuing degradation of coral reefs has serious consequences for the provision of ecosystem goods and services to local and regional communities. While climate change is considered the most serious risk to coral reefs, agricultural pollution threatens approximately 25% of the total global reef area with further increases in sediment and nutrient fluxes projected over the next 50 years. Here, we aim to inform coral reef management using insights learned from management examples that were successful in reducing agricultural pollution to coastal ecosystems. We identify multiple examples reporting reduced fluxes of sediment and nutrients at end-of-river, and associated declines in nutrient concentrations and algal biomass in receiving coastal waters. Based on the insights obtained, we recommend that future protection of coral reef ecosystems demands policy focused on desired ecosystem outcomes, targeted regulatory approaches, up-scaling of watershed management, and long-term maintenance of scientifically robust monitoring programs linked with adaptive management.     

Inorganic carbon dynamics during northern California coastal upwelling

Coastal upwelling events in the California Current System can transport subsurface waters with high levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the sea surface near shore. As these waters age and are advected offshore, CO₂ levels decrease dramatically, falling well below the atmospheric concentration beyond the continental shelf break. In May 2007 we observed an upwelling event off the coast of northern California. During the upwelling event subsurface respiration along the upwelling path added ∼35 μmol kg⁻¹ of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the water as it transited toward shore causing the waters to become undersaturated with respect to Aragonite. Within the mixed layer, pCO₂ levels were reduced by the biological uptake of DIC (up to 70%), gas exchange (up to 44%), and the addition of total alkalinity through CaCO₃ dissolution in the undersaturated waters (up to 23%). The percentage contribution of each of these processes was dependent on distance from shore. At the time of measurement, a phytoplankton bloom was just beginning to develop over the continental shelf. A box model was used to project the evolution of the water chemistry as the bloom developed. The biological utilization of available nitrate resulted in a DIC decrease of ∼200 μmol kg⁻¹, sea surface pCO₂ near ∼200 ppm, and an aragonite saturation state of ∼3. These results suggest that respiration processes along the upwelling path generally increase the acidification of the waters that are being upwelled, but once the waters reach the surface biological productivity and gas exchange reduce that acidification over time.     

Diving down the reefs? Intensive diving tourism threatens the reefs of the northern Red Sea

Intensive recreational SCUBA diving threatens coral reef ecosystems. The reefs at Dahab, South Sinai, Egypt, are among the world’s most dived (>30,000 dives y⁻¹). We compared frequently dived sites to sites with no or little diving. Benthic communities and condition of corals were examined by the point intercept sampling method in the reef crest zone (3 m) and reef slope zone (12 m). Additionally, the abundance of corallivorous and herbivorous fish was estimated based on the visual census method. Sediments traps recorded the sedimentation rates caused by SCUBA divers. Zones subject to intensive SCUBA diving showed a significantly higher number of broken and damaged corals and significantly lower coral cover. Reef crest coral communities were significantly more affected than those of the reef slope: 95% of the broken colonies were branching ones. No effect of diving on the abundance of corallivorous and herbivorous fish was evident. At heavily used dive sites, diver-related sedimentation rates significantly decreased with increasing distance from the entrance, indicating poor buoyancy regulation at the initial phase of the dive. The results show a high negative impact of current SCUBA diving intensities on coral communities and coral condition. Corallivorous and herbivorous fishes are apparently not yet affected, but are endangered if coral cover decline continues. Reducing the number of dives per year, ecologically sustainable dive plans for individual sites, and reinforcing the environmental education of both dive guides and recreational divers are essential to conserve the ecological and the aesthetic qualities of these dive sites.     

Primary igneous anhydrite: Progress since its recognition in the 1982 El Chichón trachyandesite

Primary igneous anhydrite was first identified in 1982 El Chichón pumices. Analysis of the sulfur budget for the eruption provided compelling evidence that the pre-eruptive magma contained a significant gas phase at ∼ 7 km depth in order to account for the “excess gas release” of ∼ 5–9 million tons of SO₂ to the stratosphere by the eruption. Primary igneous anhydrite and a larger “excess gas release” of ∼ 20 million tons of SO₂ were noted for the significantly larger eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, for which a separate gas phase at ∼ 7–9 km depth was also required by the sulfur budget. Pumices from both eruptions have mineral assemblages dominated by plagioclase and hornblende, with minor biotite, and show evidence for co-nucleation and mutual inclusions of anhydrite and apatite. Both magmas were also very water-rich and highly oxidized, with oxygen fugacities $1 log unit above the synthetic Ni–NiO buffer. Furthering the similarities between these two eruptions, ion-microprobe analyses of sulfur isotopic compositions of anhydrites in pumices from El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo both showed that individual crystals are isotopically homogeneous, but inter-crystalline variations in δ³⁴S are well beyond analytical error.     

Air-sea CO2 fluxes in the southern Yellow Sea: An examination of the continental shelf pump hypothesis

The southern Yellow Sea (SYS), located to the north of the East China Sea (ECS), was considered part of the ECS when Tsunogai et al. (1999) proposed the “continental shelf pump” (CSP) hypothesis. However, the original CSP carbon dioxide (CO₂) uptake flux (2.9 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹) appears to have been overestimated, primarily due to the differences between the SYS and the ECS in terms of their CO₂ system. In this paper, we estimated air-sea CO₂ fluxes in the SYS using the surface water partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) measured in winter, spring, and summer, as well as that estimated in fall via the relationship of pCO₂ with salinity, temperature, and chlorophyll a. The results indicate that overall, the entire investigated area was a net source of atmospheric CO₂ during summer, winter, and fall, whereas it was a net sink during spring. Spatially, the nearshore area was almost a permanent CO₂ source, while the central SYS shifted from being a CO₂ sink in spring to a source in the other seasons of the year. Overall, the SYS is a net source of atmospheric CO₂ on an annual scale, releasing ∼7.38 Tg C (1 Tg=10¹² g) to the atmosphere annually. Thus, the updated CO₂ uptake flux in the combined SYS and ECS is reduced to ∼0.86 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹. If this value is extrapolated globally following Tsunogai et al. (1999), the global continental shelf would be a sink of ∼0.29 Pg C yr⁻¹, instead of 1 Pg C yr⁻¹ (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g).The SYS as a net annual source of atmospheric CO₂ is in sharp contrast to most mid- and high-latitude continental shelves, which are CO₂ sinks. We argue that unlike the ECS and the North Sea where carbon on the shelf could be exported to the open ocean, the SYS lacks the physical conditions required by the CSP to transport carbon off the shelf effectively. The global validity of the CSP theory is thus questionable.     

Multi-scale modeling of CO2 dispersion leaked from seafloor off the Japanese coast

A numerical simulation was conducted to predict the change of pCO₂ in the ocean caused by CO₂ leaked from an underground aquifer, in which CO₂ is purposefully stored. The target space of the present model was the ocean above the seafloor. The behavior of CO₂ bubbles, their dissolution, and the advection-diffusion of dissolved CO₂ were numerically simulated. Here, two cases for the leakage rate were studied: an extreme case, 94,600 t/y, which assumed that a large fault accidentally connects the CO₂ reservoir and the seafloor; and a reasonable case, 3800 t/y, based on the seepage rate of an existing EOR site. In the extreme case, the calculated increase in ΔpCO₂ experienced by floating organisms was less than 300 ppm, while that for immobile organisms directly over the fault surface periodically exceeded 1000 ppm, if momentarily. In the reasonable case, the calculated ΔpCO₂ and pH were within the range of natural fluctuation.     

Effects of elevated CO2 on the reproduction of two calanoid copepods

Some planktonic groups suffer negative effects from ocean acidification (OA), although copepods might be less sensitive. We investigated the effect of predicted CO₂ levels (range 480–750 ppm), on egg production and hatching success of two copepod species, Centropages typicus and Temora longicornis. In these short-term incubations there was no significant effect of high CO₂ on these parameters. Additionally a very high CO₂ treatment, (CO₂ = 9830 ppm), representative of carbon capture and storage scenarios, resulted in a reduction of egg production rate and hatching success of C. typicus, but not T. longicornis. In conclusion, reproduction of C. typicus was more sensitive to acute elevated seawater CO₂ than that of T. longicornis, but neither species was affected by exposure to CO₂ levels predicted for the year 2100. The duration and seasonal timing of exposures to high pCO₂, however, might have a significant effect on the reproduction success of calanoid copepods.     

Shelf habitat distribution as a legacy of Late Quaternary marine transgressions: A case study from a tropical carbonate province

The legacy of multiple marine transgressions is preserved in a complex morphology of ridges, mounds and reefs on the Carnarvon continental shelf, Western Australia. High-resolution multibeam sonar mapping, underwater photography and sampling across a 280 km² area seaward of the Ningaloo Coast World Heritage Area shows that these raised features provide hardground habitat for modern coral and sponge communities. Prominent among these features is a 20 m high and 15 km long shore-parallel ridge at 60 m water depth. This ridge preserves the largely unaltered form of a fringing reef and is interpreted as the predecessor to modern Ningaloo Reef. Landward of the drowned reef, the inner shelf is covered by hundreds of mounds (bommies) up to 5 m high and linear ridges up to 1.5 km long and 16 m high. The ridges are uniformly oriented to the north-northeast and several converge at their landward limit. On the basis of their shape and alignment, these ridges are interpreted as relict long-walled parabolic dunes. Their preservation is attributed to cementation of calcareous sands to form aeolianite, prior to the post-glacial marine transgression. Some dune ridges abut areas of reef that rise to sea level and are highly irregular in outline but maintain a broad shore-parallel trend. These are tentatively interpreted as Last Interglacial in age. The mid-shelf and outer shelf are mostly sediment covered with relatively low densities of epibenthic biota and have patches of low-profile ridges that may also be relict reef shorelines. An evolutionary model for the Carnarvon shelf is proposed that relates the formation of drowned fringing reefs and aeolian dunes to Late Quaternary eustatic sea level.     

Resistance of Lophelia pertusa to coverage by sediment and petroleum drill cuttings

In laboratory experiments, the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa was exposed to settling particles. The effects of reef sediment, petroleum drill cuttings and a mix of both, on the development of anoxia at the coral surface were studied using O₂, pH and H₂S microsensors and by assessing coral polyp mortality. Due to the branching morphology of L. pertusa and the release of coral mucus, accumulation rates of settling material on coral branches were low. Microsensors detected H₂S production in only a few samples, and sulfate reduction rates of natural reef sediment slurries were low (<0.3 nmol S cm⁻³ d⁻¹). While the exposure to sediment clearly reduced the coral’s accessibility to oxygen, L. pertusa tolerated both partial low-oxygen and anoxic conditions without any visible detrimental short-term effect, such as tissue damage or death. However, complete burial of coral branches for >24 h in reef sediment resulted in suffocation.     

Coral recruitment and potential recovery of eutrophied and blast fishing impacted reefs in Spermonde Archipelago,Indonesia

Coral recruitment was assessed in highly diverse and economically important Spermonde Archipelago, a reef system subjected to land-based sources of siltation/pollution and destructive fishing, over a period of 2 years. Recruitment on settlement tiles reached up to 705 spat m⁻² yr⁻¹ and was strongest in the dry season (July–October), except off-shore, where larvae settled earlier. Pocilloporidae dominated near-shore, while a more diverse community of Acroporidae, Poritidae and others settled in the less polluted mid-shelf and off-shore reefs. Non-coral fouling community appeared to hardly influence initial coral settlement on the tiles, although, this does not necessarily infer low coral post-settlement mortality, which may be enhanced at the near- and off-shore reefs as indicated by increased abundances of potential space competitors on natural substrate. Blast fishing showed no local reduction in coral recruitment and live hard coral cover increased in oligotrophic reefs, indicating potential for coral recovery, if managed effectively.     

Probing the magma plumbing of Erebus volcano,Antarctica, by open-path FTIR spectroscopy of gas emissions

Gas emissions from Erebus volcano, Antarctica, were measured by open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy to understand degassing of its magmatic system. Two degassing phonolite lava lakes were present in the summit crater during observation in December 2004. We report analyses of H₂O, CO₂, CO, SO₂, HF, HCl and OCS, (in order of molar abundance) in the plumes. Variations in the proportions of these species strongly reflect the dynamics of degassing, and sourcing of gas from different depths in the magmatic network. The highest observed ratios of CO₂ and H₂O are consistent with gas extracted from the melt at a depth of up to ∼ 2 km below the lava lakes. Magma degassing above this depth contributes to a higher H₂O/CO₂ proportion in the airborne plume. The ratio therefore reflects the balance of deeper vs. shallower contributions of volatiles and, possibly, a combination of closed- and open-system degassing. We observe a strong contrast in HF content in emissions from the two lava lakes, which we attribute to differing levels of magma ascent and/or cooling and crystallization of the magma supply. Fluxes of all gas species were determined using independent SO₂ flux determinations and measured gas ratios. In the case of CO₂ and water, ∼ 1 and ∼ 0.4 m³ s^− 1, respectively, of parental basanite magma are required to sustain the calculated output. The discrepancy between the two figures is readily explained by sequestration of part of the magma supply at depth such that it only partially degasses its complement of water.     

The AD 1362 Öræfajökull eruption,S.E. Iceland: Physical volcanology and volatile release

The explosive rhyolitic eruption of Öræfajökull volcano, Iceland, in AD 1362 is described and interpreted based on the sequence of pyroclastic fall and flow deposits at 10 proximal locations around the south side of the volcano. Öræfajökull is an ice-clad stratovolcano in south central Iceland which has an ice-filled caldera (4–5 km diameter) of uncertain origin. The main phase of the eruption took place over a few days in June and proceeded in three main phases that produced widely dispersed fallout deposits and a pyroclastic flow deposit. An initial phase of phreatomagmatic eruptive activity produced a volumetrically minor, coarse ash fall deposit (unit A) with a bi-lobate dispersal. This was followed by a second phreatomagmatic, possibly phreatoplinian, phase that deposited more fine ash beds (unit B), dispersed to the SSE. Phases A and B were followed by an intense, climactic Plinian phase that lasted ∼ 8–12 h and produced unit C, a coarse-lapilli, pumice-clast-dominated fall deposit in the proximal region. At the end of Plinian activity, pyroclastic flows formed a poorly-sorted deposit, unit D, presently of very limited thickness and exposed distribution. Much of Eastern Iceland is covered with a very fine distal ash layer, dispersed to the NE. This was probably deposited from an umbrella cloud and is the distal representation of the Plinian fallout. A total bulk fall deposit volume of ∼ 2.3 km³ is calculated (∼ 1.2 km³ DRE). Pyroclastic flow deposit volumes have been crudely estimated to be < 0.1 km³. Maximum clast size data interpreted by 1-D models suggests an eruption column ∼ 30 km high and mass discharge rates of ∼ 10⁸ kg s^− 1. Ash fall may have taken place from heights around 15 km, above the local tropopause (∼ 10 km), with coarser clasts dispersed below that under a different wind regime. Analyses of glass inclusions and matrix glasses suggest that the syn-eruptive SO₂ release was only ∼ 1 Mt. This result is supported by published Greenland ice-core acidity peak data that also suggest very minor sulphate deposition and thus SO₂ release. The small sulphur release reflects the low sulphur solubility in the 1362 rhyolitic melt. The low tropopause over Iceland and the 30-km-high eruption column certainly led to stratospheric injection of gas and ash but little sulphate aerosol was generated. Moreover, pre-eruptive and degassed halogen concentrations (Cl, F) indicate that these volatiles were not efficiently released during the eruption. Besides the local pyroclastic flow (and related lahar) hazard, the impact of the Öræfajökull 1362 eruption was perhaps restricted to widespread ash fall across Eastern Iceland and parts of northern Europe.     

Estimation of nearshore groundwater discharge and its potential effects on a fringing coral reef

Radon (²²²Rn) measurements were conducted in Shiraho Reef (Okinawa, Japan) to investigate nearshore submarine groundwater discharge (SGD_nearshore) dynamics. Estimated average groundwater flux was 2-3 cm/h (maximum 7-8 cm/h). End-member radon concentration and gas transfer coefficient were identified as major factors influencing flux estimation accuracy. For the 7-km long reef, SGD_nearshore was 0.39-0.58 m³/s, less than 30% of Todoroki River’s baseflow discharge. SGD_nearshore was spatially and temporally variable, reflecting the strong influence of subsurface geology, tidal pumping, groundwater recharge, and hydraulic gradient. SGD_nearshore elevated nearshore nitrate concentrations (0.8-2.2 mg/l) to half of Todoroki River’s baseflow -N (2-4 mg/L). This increased nearshore Chl-a from 0.5-2 μg/l compared to the typically low Chl-a (<0.1-0.4 μg/l) in the moat. Diatoms and cyanobacteria concentrations exhibited an increasing trend. However, the percentage contributions of diatoms and cyanobacteria significantly decreased and increased, respectively. SGD may significantly induce the proliferation of cyanobacteria in nearshore reef areas.     

High CO2 Levels in Boreholes at El Teide Volcano Complex (Tenerife, Canary Islands): Implications for Volcanic Activity Monitoring

Emissions of CO₂ have been known for more than a hundred years as fumarolic activity at the terminal crater of El Teide volcano and as diffuse emissions at numerous water prospection drillings in the volcanic island of Tenerife. Large concentrations of CO₂ (>10% in volume) have been found inside galleries, long horizontal tunnels excavated for water mining. However, CO₂ concentrations of only 2900 ppm have been observed at the surface of the central region of the island (Las Cañadas del Teide caldera). In this work we analysed CO₂ concentrations in the subsurface of Las Cañadas caldera, in an attempt to study the vertical distribution of carbon dioxide and, in particular, the low emissions at the surface. This has been done through a series of 17 vertical profiles in two deep boreholes excavated in the Caldera. We found high levels of CO₂, varying in time from 13 vol% up to 40 vol% in different profiles directly above the water table, while no significant concentrations were detected above the thermal inversion that takes places in both boreholes at approximately 100 m from the water table. Water analyses also showed high dissolved CO₂ levels in equilibrium with the air, and an average 13C value in DIC of +4.7 (PDB), apparently induced by fast CO₂ degassing in the bicarbonated water.     

Photocatalytic splitting of seawater effected by (Ni–ZnO)@C nanoreactors

Novel photocatalysts i.e., metallic nickel and zinc oxide nanoparticles embedded in the carbon-shell ((Ni–ZnO)@C) have been used for photocatalytic splitting of seawater to generate H₂. The (Ni–ZnO)@C core–shell nanoparticles having the Zn/Ni ratios of 0–3 were prepared by carbonization of Ni²⁺- and Zn²⁺-β-cyclodextrin at 673 K for 2 h. To increase the collision frequency of water and photoactive sites within the carbon-shell, Ni and ZnO are partially etched from the (Ni–ZnO)@C core–shell to form yolk–shell nanoparticles with a H₂SO₄ solution (2 N). By X-ray diffraction spectroscopy, mainly Ni and ZnO crystallites are observed in the core– and yolk–shell nanoparticles. The sizes of the Ni and ZnO in the (Ni–ZnO)@C nanoreactors are between 7 and 23 nm in diameters determined by TEM and small angel scattering spectroscopy. Under a 5-h UV–Vis light irradiation, 5.01 μmol/hg_cat of H₂ are yielded from photocatalytic splitting of seawater effected by (Ni–ZnO)@C nanoreactors.     

An example of application: The ecological “natural flow regime” paradigm in hydroclimatology

According to the concept of “natural flow regime,” introduced and developed in the 1990's in aquatic ecology, streamflow can be described using five basic characteristics: magnitude, frequency, duration, period of occurrence and variability. A sixth could be added to these, namely, distribution curve. Our study, which focused exclusively on the temporal variability of these six characteristics, had these objectives: (1) to compare their stationarity, (2) to determine the links among these characteristics and (3) to analyze, for the first time, their relationship to six climatic indices (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Artic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Niño3.4, Pacific decadal Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index). To do this, we used the Vermillon River (2670 km²) as an example, analyzing the streamflow of heavy spring floods (equal to or greater than the annual flood streamflow), as measured between 1934 and 2000.