CROP RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS: A SIMULATION STUDY*

This study utilizes global climate models and crop growth models to estimate the potential agricultural effects of climate change caused by a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide for the southern Great Plains. Projected climate changes cause simulated wheat and corn yields to decrease in the study area. Decreases in modeled grain yields are caused primarily by temperature increases which shorten the duration of crop life cycle and curtail the harvestable biomass production. While physiological effects of carbon dioxide and changing cultivars offer some hope of climate change mitigation, detrimental consequences to regional crop production, including need for increased irrigation, are suggested.     

华北地区气候暖干化的农业适应性对策研究

通过对华北地区1951-2000年的气温和降水的统计资料进行分析,并作出年平均气温距平变化图和平均降水变化图,得出华北地区50多年来气候呈现暖干化趋势,气温明显升高,冬季表现最为明显,降水明显减少,夏季表现最为明显。接着采用降水量减去同时期蒸发力的方法,从水分平衡的角度分析了气候暖干化对地表水资源的影响,得出近50年来,华北地区年及季的水分亏缺量总体呈增加趋势,春季亏缺尤为严重,加剧了对农业生产的不利影响。然后通过大量农业实验数据,分析了气候暖干化对农作物产量、品质、病虫害及化肥农药的使用的影响,得出气候暖干化对农业生产的影响害处远大于利处。在此基础上分析得出华北地区农业应对气候暖干化的主要问题是水问题,然后通过具体实例和对实验数据的分析,提出以下具体建议与适应性对策:积极推广和普及农业节水技术;推广集水保水技术;因水制宜调整农作物类型,发展优势作物;合理调整种植结构,优化作物布局;加强宣传教育,增强农民气候适应意识。     

一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量变化

从不同燃料和不同地区入手,分析了我国1995~2006年间一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量变化情况。结果表明:1995~2006年间,我国一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳年总排放量呈现"先减少后增加"的发展态势,其拐点出现在2000年,而且2001年后各个省(区、市)的二氧化碳年排放量较前期均有大幅度的增加,总排放量由1995年的78678万t碳增长到2006年的146919万t碳,年均增长率5.84％,人均二氧化碳年排放量也由0.62t碳/人增加到1.12t碳/人;煤炭消费导致的二氧化碳排放量占全国二氧化碳年总排放量的79%~85％;我国七大区和大部分省(区、市)二氧化碳年排放量与全国总排放量有类似的发展态势,其中华北、华东地区二氧化碳排放量居全国首位,山西省的二氧化碳排放量位居全国第一。     

Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Forest Ecosystems in the Western Ghats,a Global Biodiversity Hotspot

Global warming with the burgeoning anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (400 parts per million from 280 ppm CO₂ emissions of pre-industrial era) has altered climate, eroding the ecosystem productivity and sustenance of water, affecting the livelihood of people. The anthropogenic activities such as burning fossil fuel, power generation, agriculture, industry, polluting water bodies and urban activities are responsible for increasing GHG footprint of which 72% constitute CO₂. GHG footprint needs to be in balance with sequestration of carbon to sustain ecosystem functions. Forests are the major carbon sinks (about 45%) that aid in mitigating global warming. The current research focusses on the carbon budgeting through quantification of emissions and sinks in the forest ecosystems and changes in climatic conditions of Western Ghats. This would help in evolving appropriate mitigation strategies toward sustainable management of forests and mitigate impacts of global warming. The land-use land-cover (LULC) dynamics are the prime driver of climate change due to the loss of carbon sequestration potential as well as emissions. The Western Ghats are one among 36 global biodiversity hotspots and forests in this region sequester atmospheric carbon, which aid in moderating the global climate and sustaining water to ensure water and food security in the peninsular India. Assessment of LULC dynamics using temporal remote sensing data shows the decline of evergreen forest by 5% with an increase in agriculture, plantations and built-up area. The interior or intact forests have declined by 10%, and they are now confined to protected areas. The simulation of likely changes indicates that the region will have only 10% evergreen cover and 17% agriculture, 40% plantations and 5% built-up. Quantification of carbon reveals that the WG forest ecosystem holds 1.23 MGg (million gigagrams or Gt) in vegetation and soils. The annual incremental carbon is about 37,507.3 Gg, (or 37.5 million tons, Mt) and the highest in the forests of Karnataka part of WG. Simulation of the likely changes in carbon content indicates the loss of 0.23 MGg (2018–2031) carbon sequestration potential under business as usual scenario. The conservation scenario depicts an increase in carbon sequestration potential of WG forests with the protection. Sequestered carbon in WG is about INR 100 billion ($1.4 billion) at carbon trading of INR 2142 ($30) per tonne. Large-scale land-cover changes leading to deforestation has contributed to an increase in mean temperature by 0.5°C and decline in rainy days, which necessitates evolving prudent landscape management strategies involving all stakeholders for conservation of ecologically fragile WG. This will enhance the ability of forests to sequester atmospheric carbon and climate moderation, with the sustenance of ecosystem goods and services.

     

日本环境保全型农业的综述:发展历史、挑战及新机遇（英文）

农业生态系统是世界上最大的人类管理的生态系统。环境保全型农业的发展对扭转世界上生物多样性巨大损失的局面意义重大。全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)项目是由联合国粮农组织(FAO)发起的以保护和动态管理传统农业知识系统及其景观为目标的国际性项目。日本农林水产省(MAFF)1992年开始高度重视现代农业生产对环境的负面影响。能登半岛和佐渡市被认定为发达国家中最早的GIAHS试点地,这也显示了日本地方层面保护传统农业生态系统的决心。本文综述了日本环境保全型农业发展的历史过程,现状,面临的挑战和新的机遇。日本现有的环境保全型农业包括:减少化肥和农药用量的做法,重视保护生物多样性的农法,有机农业等等。本文重点介绍了北陆地区的环境保全型农业发展的情况,尤其是石川县能登地区和新泻县佐渡市的情况以及最新的案例分析。本文使用最新的政府报告等官方文件,统计数据和学术论文进行分析并初步探讨如何进一步发展和扩大环境保全型农业的政策建议。本文分析环境保全型农业推广的问题并介绍了环境保全型农产品的市场价格的研究成果。认为重视农民的利益,鼓励城市居民,科研人员以及私营企业等多方面的参与,以及地方政府支持环保产品拓宽销路是环境保全型农业能得到切实发展的关键所在。     

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。     

Relational Agriculture: Gender,Sexuality, and Sustainability in U.S. Farming

Although 97% of U.S. farms are “family-owned,” little research examines how gender and sexual relationships – inherent in familial dynamics – influence farmers’ practices and livelihoods. Gender and sexual dynamics – shaped by race and class – affect who is considered a farmer, land management decisions, and access to resources like land, subsidies, and knowledge. We use feminist and queer lenses to illuminate how today’s agricultural gender and sexual relations are not “natural,” but when left uninterrogated are constructed in ways that harm women and queer farmers while limiting potential to develop sustainable practices. Women and queer farmers also resist, “re-orienting” gender and sexual relations in ways that expand possibilities for achieving food justice and ecological sustainability. We offer “relational agriculture” as a tool for making visible and re-orienting gender and sexual relations on farms. Relational agriculture brings sexuality into food justice and demonstrates the centrality of gender and sexuality to agricultural sustainability.     

Agricultural Research and Alternative Farmers’ Information Needs

Research on sustainable agriculture is underfunded in the United States. Therefore, the topical relevance and the dissemination of this research must be carefully targeted to reach farmers. This paper investigates the actual linkages between local alternative farmers and the information dissemination efforts of publicly funded researchers who obtained grants from a federal/regional program. This analysis is based on a mail survey of twenty sustainable farmers in the Illinois Sustainable Agriculture Society, fifty farmers in the Illinois Organic Crop Improvement Association, and forty‐two researchers who received grant funding from the North Central Region of the USDA's (United States Department of Agriculture) Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education (USDA‐SARE) program between 1988 and 1996. Appropriate statistical techniques were employed to analyze the relatively small sample sizes. Findings suggest that the local needs of farmers are not being met by the national and regional efforts of USDA‐SARE, although sustainable farmers are somewhat more likely than organic farmers to receive publicly funded research information. Based on this survey research, the USDA should reconsider the focus and goals of its commitment to sustainable agricultural research.     

Global Carbon Project (GCP) Beijing Office: a new bridge for understanding regional carbon cycles

It has been widely accepted that human activities, especially burning fossil fuels and land use change, have altered the climate on earth and anthropogenic carbon fluxes have become comparable in magnitude with the natural fluxes in the global carbon cycle. The present and potential threat of adverse consequences has focused the attention of the scientists, policy makers and general public on the interaction among carbon cycle, climate change and human system. Asia is a hot spot from environmental change and sustainable development perspectives. The development pathways and environmental changes in the region have obvious consequences for the regional carbon cycle, even for global carbon budget, and the complex, diverse social, economic and environmental conditions make it highly difficult to understand and quantify these consequences. The GCP Beijing Office “will have a supporting and coordinating role and will provide coordination, leadership and capacity building on carbon cycle sciences in China and to the larger region of Asia” and “liaise with the two International Project Offices based in Canberra and Tsukuba to coordinate a regional and global strategy consistent with the GCP Science and Implementation Framework”.     

全球碳计划(GCP)北京办公室:了解区域碳循环研究的桥梁

1 Background The growing realization of anthropogenic climate change has focused the attention of the scientific community, policymakers and the general public on the rising concentration of greenhouse gases, especially CO2 in the atmosphere, and on the c…     

保护性农业的研究现状、进展与展望

保护性农业是相对较新的一个概念,它强调了农业的可持续发展。保护性农业的三个重要要素包括少耕或免耕、永久地面覆盖和轮作。从生态学的角度,保护性农业对土壤生态系统的有益效应包括改善土壤系统的化学、物理及生物特性。然而,目前保护性农业在全世界的推广应用范围还很有限,特别是在发展中国家更是如此。在发展中国家,农民主要把秸秆用于煮饭和取暖的燃料,同时还用作家畜饲草。因此,我们面临的主要问题是研究和解决把秸秆用于土壤保护和提高土壤肥力与其它用途的矛盾。本文较系统地评述了世界保护性农业的研究现状、主要进展及展望。还讨论了实行保护性农业中存在的问题及注意事项。     

基于EPIC模型的黄淮海夏玉米旱灾风险评价

玉米是中国最主要的粮食作物之一,因其较高的需水量,受气候影响,极易遭受旱灾。因此,以黄淮海夏播玉米区为例,从风险的角度进行玉米旱灾评价,对于农业旱灾预警和保障国家粮食安全具有重要的现实和指导意义。在全面收集研究区气象、土壤、土地利用、农气观测等资料的基础上,基于农业旱灾风险评价的概念框架“致灾因子危险性H评价(Hazard)-承灾体脆弱性曲线Vc 评价(Vulnerability Curve)-作物减产风险性R评价(Risk)”,引入基于物理过程的作物模型EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calulator),采用作物模型模拟和数字制图等技术,分别从全生育期和分生育期角度,对黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米旱灾风险的时空分布进行了定量评价。结果表明：在2、5、10 和20 年一遇致灾水平下,黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米旱灾减产风险总体呈现出从西北向东南方向递减的趋势,这主要由气候环境和下垫面的地形地貌条件所决定。20 年一遇水平时,产量损失风险的高值区(R ≥ 0.5) 集中分布在冀北高原山地和山东省中南部地区,占黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米总面积的7.63%。黄淮海夏播玉米区成灾风险较高的生育期：拔节期-抽雄期、抽雄期-乳熟期、乳熟期-成熟期应加强防范。研究可为高风险区和高风险时段的玉米旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和科技支撑。     

Lesbian and Queer Sustainable Farmer Networks in the Midwest

Heteropatriarchy underpins contemporary U.S. agriculture, even within the alternative sector. This paper builds on the legacies of women farmers and farmers of color creating peer networks to circumvent heteropatriarchal hurdles by investigating how lesbian, bisexual, trans, and queer (LBTQ) sustainable farmers access human resources. If and how did the farmers encounter or resist heteropatriarchy in this process? Drawing on four years of ethnographic research with 40 LBTQ Midwest sustainable farmers, I argue that resources through government agencies, neighborhood farmers, and like-minded practitioners did not necessarily align with LBTQ farmers’ sustainable practices or queer identities. LBTQ farmers convened with others at the intersections of their queerness and sustainable practices formally, informally, and through the labor market to access human resources removed from heteropatriarchal domination. I conclude that LBTQ farmer networks bolster human resources in sustainable agriculture and conservation practices.     

The Failure of Cooperative Farming Development Policies in Tōhoku,Japan

In the context of agricultural globalization, many national governments have instituted policies, such as cooperative farming, to help farmers improve their profitability, competitiveness, and the sustainability of their agricultural practices. This study focused on the Multi-Product Management Stabilization Plan developed in Japan in 2006, which aimed to adapt the agricultural practices in the country to globalization by focusing on cooperative farming, and assessed its effectiveness for developing and incorporating cooperative farming in the Tōhoku region in the 2000s. The results suggest that regional and prefectural agents experienced significant difficulties when attempting to develop cooperative farming. Although New Institutional Economics’ theories suggest that these policies reflect the norms for developing agriculture more profitably and competitively, Japanese farmers did not regard the policies as relevant, practical, or sustainable, and they obstructed them.     

全球变化下作物物候研究进展

作物物候是农作物重要的植物属性,不仅反映作物的生长发育状况,其变化也影响作物产量,是一种能够指示气候变化的综合响应指标。以气温升高为主要标志的全球气候变化对作物物候产生了重要影响,开展全球气候变化下作物物候变化特征及其影响机制研究对于揭示全球变化对作物生长发育过程影响及其产量形成机制具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。目前,作物物候变化及其影响因素是国内外研究的焦点和热点问题,前人已开展了大量而卓有成效的研究工作。本文侧重介绍全球气候变化下作物物候变化的主要研究进展,包括作物物候变化的驱动因子及其影响机制和作物物候主要研究方法,并探讨未来研究仍亟待解决的关键科学问题,以期为深入认识全球气候变化对农业物候的影响机理以及指导区域农业生产实践提供理论依据。     

传统农业系统环境胁迫应对措施分析——以中国农业文化遗产地为例(英文)

近年来,随着气候变化影响的不断加剧,农业发展也正承受着强大的生态环境压力的胁迫,严重威胁到粮食安全及农业的可持续发展。当今农业依托现代化生产技术虽在短期内可以有效降低甚至避免环境胁迫对农业生产的限制和影响,但是,从长期及系统角度考虑也给农业生态系统带来了许多生态危机。为实现农业可持续发展,环境胁迫应对措施必须充分考虑生态保护这一重要前提。农业文化遗产地的传统农业系统依托其独特的农业系统结构,包括土地利用方式、水利设施、传统作物等,较好实现了农业系统与当地自然条件尤其是胁迫因子之间的匹配。基于灾害系统理论,对比分析了农业文化遗产地农业系统及普通农业系统的环境胁迫应对措施。敖汉旱作农业系统(2012年被联合国粮农组织列为全球重要农业文化遗产)的种植结构以与当地水分条件匹配较好的谷黍等耐旱型作物为主,通过降低承灾体(农作物)的脆弱性,较好地在承灾体一环实现了防灾减灾的目的,实现了干旱半干旱地区农业生产与缺水环境的共存。云南红河哈尼稻作梯田系统(2010年被联合国粮农组织列为全球重要农业文化遗产)依托于独特的水土利用方式和林—寨—田—河垂直分布的景观格局,通过重塑孕灾环境,有效避免了旱灾的发生。此外,农业文化遗产地传统农业系统凭借丰富的田间作物多样性、遗产地品牌效应及农业景观资源等,极大地提升了农业系统的经济价值,进而削弱了灾害对生产生活的影响。通过对比分析可见,传统农业系统的胁迫因子应对措施充分考虑了系统的自然调节和自发性,既可较好地避免灾害的发生,又保证了系统生态安全,是立足生态保护基础上实现农业可持续发展的典范。     

Global and regional changes of climate: Causes,consequences and adaptation of the economic activities

This paper is concerned with some debatable issues related to assessments of the role played by greenhouse gases and aerosols in the formation of seasonal patterns of temperature change in the northern and southern hemispheres as well as of air temperature across the territory of Belarus. It is shown that the periods of low aerosol pollution of the atmosphere coincide with high summer temperatures in the region. A warming period of the 1930s–early 1940s in the northern hemisphere (in the Arctic) was also observed during a warm season. In recent years when aerosol pollution has decreased, the growth rate of summer temperatures has increased; the temperature rise during a cold period became comparable to that observed during a warm period. In terms of the theory of greenhouse warming of the climate system, however, the temperature rise must be more pronounced in a cold season. Over the last 15–16 years, global temperature, remaining the highest for the period of instrumental observations, has not been increasing, whereas carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has increased by more than 30%. A detailed study is made of the consequences of the forecasted climate warming in climate-dependent sectors of the economy. It is concluded that there is a need to work out multivariant adaptation measures in view of the uncertainty of existing knowledge regarding the causes for climate change, and because of the large spread in scenario-based assessments of future climate changes.     

农业景观对土壤侵蚀的适应机制研究初探

随着气候变化对农业系统的影响不断加剧,为保障粮食安全,必须掌握变化中的自然与人文因素,判别农 业景观中可调整的关键机制,依据未来的可能情景,尽早订定农业景观优化方案。本研究以土壤侵蚀问题为切入 点,整合相关的环境因子,构建农业景观对土壤侵蚀适应性的研究框架。基本思路为首先通过目前气候变化对土壤 侵蚀的影响研究,为不同时空尺度上土壤侵蚀发生、发展趋势提供理论依据;其次,从增强未来农业景观对土壤侵 蚀适应能力的角度,详细讨论景观类型、空间配置和管理措施等与土壤侵蚀的关系,以提高农业景观优化配置的针 对性;最后,为科学评价农业景观对土壤侵蚀适应的程度,基于Agent 模型原理设计土壤侵蚀模拟模型,通过不同 土壤侵蚀情景下景观类型、结构、空间配置和管理措施等的适应性分析,为有效提升区域农业景观的土壤抗侵蚀能 力提供科学依据。     

Evaluating smallholder farmers' preferences for climate smart agricultural practices in Tehuledere District,northeastern Ethiopia

This study was conducted in Tehuledere district, northeastern Ethiopia. The objective was to find out farmers' preferences for, and barriers to, adopting climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices. Both primary and secondary sources of data were collected using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Conjoint experiment method was employed to identify the most preferred attributes of CSA practices. We found that high and moderate climate resilience and high crop yield agricultural practices had a positive utility, implying that these were the most preferred combination of CSA when responding to climate change. Contrary to this, high greenhouse gas emissions, low climate resilience and low crop yield had a negative utility, implying that these were the least preferred combination of CSA when responding to climate change. The study found that crop yield and resilience are the most important factors influencing farmers' preferences for CSA practices. The main barriers limiting wide adoption and practicing of CSA include inadequate law enforcement, lack of incentives, inadequate and unreliable extension and weather information. The study established that CSA practices were viable and effective response measures, hence increased support through adoption of innovative technologies, policies and strategies to address the barriers and widen the adoption scope of CSA is recommended.     

气候变化对石羊河流域农业生产的影响

用石羊河流域气象站47 a气象观测资料和武威农试站37 a农作物生育资料,探讨流域气候变化背景下农业气象、水文变化特征及对作物布局、生育和产量形成的影响。结果表明:流域内≥10℃积温呈逐年代增加趋势,热量条件好转;气候干旱指数呈逐年代增大趋势,暖干化明显;来水量呈逐年代减少趋势,水问题日趋严重;受气候变暖的影响,易受旱害的高耗水作物春小麦种植面积减小,耐旱、喜温的经济作物玉米、棉花种植面积扩大;春小麦生育进程加快,生育期缩短,对产量形成不利,反之,对喜温作物玉米、棉花等提高产量和品质有利。