基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究

以人口空间分布及其与资源环境和社会经济协调性评价为核心,提出了一整套人口与资源环境和经济社会发展协调水平评价的指标体系与模型方法;以分县为基本单元,定量评价了2010 年中国人口与资源环境和社会经济发展的协调性和协调程度;根据人口分布适宜度高低和限制性差别,划分了中国分县人口分布适宜等级和限制类型,定量揭示了中国不同地区人口与资源环境和社会经济协调发展的时空格局和地域特征。研究表明：① 2010 年中国有3/5 以上的县（市、区） 人口分布与人居环境基本适宜,中国分县人口分布与人居环境自然适宜性保持了高度一致性;② 2010 年中国有1/2 以上的县（市、区） 人口发展基本不受水土资源约束,分县人口分布与水土资源适宜性处于中等水平;③ 2010 年中国有超3/5 的县（市、区） 人口与社会经济发展基本协调,人口分布的社会经济协调性良好;④ 2010 年中国近3/5 的县（市、区） 人口分布适宜度在60 以上,人口资源环境与发展处于基本协调或相对协调状态;⑤2010 年中国分县人口资源环境与发展的协调程度东部优于中部、中部优于西部;⑥ 2010 年中国分县人口分布适宜度可划分为人口资源环境与发展基本协调、相对协调、有待协调和亟待协调4个适宜等级与10 个限制类型。     

中国人口分布的土地资源限制性和限制度研究

以人口分布的土地资源限制性评价为核心,建立土地资源限制性与限制度模型,从全国、分省、分县等三个不同尺度,全面评估近10年中国人口分布的土地资源限制度及其时空耦合规律,定量揭示中国人口分布的土地资源限制程度及其空间格局与变化规律。结果表明：① 1949年以来中国的土地资源承载力趋于增强; 2010年与2000年相比,人口分布的土地资源限制度由42.87下降到34.50,土地资源限制度在降低。② 分省的人粮关系趋于好转,大多省份人口分布的土地资源限制度处于较低水平; 2010年与2000年相比,分省人口分布的土地资源限制度整体呈降低趋势。③ 2000-2010年分县粮食盈余地区在增加,人口超载地区在减少,人粮关系趋于改善; 2010年和2000年相比,基本不受土地资源限制的分县单元由60.27%增至70.63%,基于人口分布的土地资源限制度整体较低,且近10年呈降低趋势;土地资源限制度整体上东部强于西部、南部强于北部、泛黄河流域强于长江流域。     

人地非线性相关作用的探讨

从自组织系统思想出发，提出了人地关系的基本特性，通过逻辑斯蒂听数学变换，分析了人地非线性相关作用的混沌特性，进而讨论了人地关系的分形性质。基于混 过程与分形结构的因果关系，指出：地球表层系统中的人文分形景观乃是人地非线性关系的混沌作用所致。     

中国分省尺度人口分布适宜度研究(英文)

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that:(1) The environmental suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010.(2) The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010.(3) The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010.(4) The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010.(5) The coordination degree between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination.(6) The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as: implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of population and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.     

Research on the suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale in China

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that： （1） The environmental suitability of population distribu- tion at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. （2） The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. （3） The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. （4） The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. （5） The coordination degree between population dis- tribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. （6） The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as： implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of popu- lation and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.     

Study of the Population Carrying Capacity of Water and Land in Hainan Province

In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province.     

Sexism in the postcolonial society of Mauritius: The role of metropolisation and communalism

Sexism as a variety of prejudice is widely addressed as a severe social problem for society owing to its quality of establishing various forms of inequality. However, sexism is a rather neglected issue in geography especially concerning the global South. The postcolonial island state of Mauritius, agrarian-oriented and socially conservative but well integrated in global value chains, shows the unique combination of a strong paternalistic form of inward ethnic orientation, characteristic for most postcolonial states, combined with a minor tendency for metropolisation, which makes the island state worthwhile for the further development of generic theories of sexism in general. The paper analyses relevant predictors of sexism in Mauritius that can be useful in informing approaches that focus especially north/south differences of gender inequality. It becomes apparent that mechanisms of sexism in Mauritius are in most dimensions the same as the mechanisms found in the global North. Communalism and absent metropolisation remain significant, yet other important predictors are sex, life satisfaction, withholding citizen rights to foreign wives of Mauritian men, and xenophobic attitudes. These results point in the direction of the necessity to think in new ways about attitudinal differences of societies in the global North/South especially in postcolonial contexts.     

土地沙漠化与系统变化

本文以位于农牧交错区的西井子农业生态经济系统为例, 从土地沙漠化产生于人口、资源、环境、经济间关系失调中出发, 分析了沙漠化进程与系统变化的关系与特点。     

重庆市主城都市区人口老龄化与养老服务资源配置空间错位研究

基于县域尺度下第七次人口普查数据,构建养老服务资源配置综合指数,利用泰尔指数、空间错位指数以及地理探测器,从匹配性角度探讨重庆市主城都市区人口老龄化和养老服务资源配置的协调关系及其驱动机制。结果表明：1）2020年重庆市主城都市区人口老龄化系数与老年人口数量的空间分布特征基本一致,呈现从中心城区到主城新区由内至外增加的圈层结构特征;2）2020年重庆市主城都市区养老服务资源配置空间分布不均衡,中心城区形成养老服务资源配置评价高地,主城新区形成养老服务资源配置评价低值环;3）2020年重庆市主城都市区人口老龄化与养老服务资源配置存在空间错位现象,中心城区资源过剩与主城新区资源不足的矛盾突出;4）政府政策、居民收入水平以及产业结构的区域差异对养老服务资源的协调发展具有显著的正向影响,而市场经济规模的扩大、家庭规模的缩小以及人口结构的变动未能有效推动养老服务资源协调发展。     

环境伦理与区域可持续发展(英文)

The scientific environmental ethics plays a key role in the recognition of the human-environment interactions. Modern environmental ethics is the philosophical re-thinking of modern human race environmental behavior. The development of environmental ethics theory, as well as its application in reality, determines the viewpoints of environmental ethics. Sustainable development implies harmony on human-environment interactions and inter-generation responsibility, with emphasis on a harmonious relationship among population, resources, environment and development, so as to lay a sustainable and healthy foundation of resources and environment for future generations. The harmonious society construction in China that is raised by the Chinese central government should be covered by environmental ethics. The connotation of open environmental ethics includes a respect for nature, care for the individual human race, and respect for the development of future generations, which means giving consideration to natural values, individual and human race benefits and welfare across generations. The role of environmental ethics in regional development consists of cognition, criticism, education, inspiration, adjusting, legislation and promoting environmental regulations. The major problems in regional development are extensive resource exploration, fast population growth, irrational industrial structure, unfair welfare distribution and the twofold effects of science and technology development. The formulation of environmental ethics that aims at regional sustainable development, can not only harmonize the relationship of population, resource, environment and economic development, but also guide behavior selection, push social and political system transformation, strengthen the legal system, and raise environmental awareness of the public.     

Environmental ethics and regional sustainable development

The scientific environmental ethics plays a key role in the recognition of the human- environment interactions. Modern environmental ethics is the philosophical re-thinking of modern human race environmental behavior. The development of environmental ethics theory, as well as its application in reality, determines the viewpoints of environmental ethics. Sustainable development implies harmony on human-environment interactions and inter- generation responsibility, with emphasis on a harmonious relationship among population, resources, environment and development, so as to lay a sustainable and healthy foundation of resources and environment for future generations. The harmonious society construction in China that is raised by the Chinese central government should be covered by environmental ethics. The connotation of open environmental ethics includes a respect for nature, care for the individual human race, and respect for the development of future generations, which means giving consideration to natural values, individual and human race benefits and welfare across generations. The role of environmental ethics in regional development consists of cognition, criticism, education, inspiration, adjusting, legislation and promoting environmental regulations. The major problems in regional development are extensive resource exploration, fast population growth, irrational industrial structure, unfair welfare distribution and the twofold effects of science and technology development. The formulation of environmental ethics that aims at regional sustainable development, can not only harmonize the relationship of population, resource, environment and economic development, but also guide behavior selection, push social and political system transformation, strengthen the legal system, and raise environmental awareness of the public.     

新疆区域小城镇相对资源承载力探析

采用定量方法从资源、经济与人口的关系研究新疆区域小城镇相对资源承载力。在一定的前提条件下,各地区小城镇人口与经济一资源承载力匹配模式及其特点,并提出提高小城镇相对承载力的对策措施,对于研究与指导新疆小城镇人口聚集和小城镇地区布局具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

东北地区人口流动与多元交通网络格局的偏离和关联

受限于个体流动数据的获取制约,以往人口流动研究多采用交通网络强度来模拟城市间的人口流动强度,忽视了二者之间的偏离。论文以铁路、公路车次构建交通网络,以腾讯位置大数据的铁路出行、公路出行数据构建人口流动网络,运用社会网络分析法、QAP模型,对比分析两者之间的偏离和关联。研究发现：(1)东北地区铁路人口流动和其交通网络格局均呈现出以“哈大”走廊为轴的南密北疏、东众西寡的特征。铁路人口流动网络结构较为分散,铁路交通网络的极化效应明显。(2)公路人口流动和其交通网络的偏离较大。公路和铁路之间存在竞争和互补关系,在铁路交通不太发达的地区,公路人口流动强度和其交通网络强度较高。(3)人口流动与交通网络存在一定关联,但人口流动受多方面因素影响,综合联系网络模型则能更准确地模拟城市间人口流动。其他影响因素中,经济联系、人口规模等因素对人口流动的影响不够明显,而城市间的邻接关系对人口流动有显著影响。(4)铁路人口流动与其交通网络的关联程度较公路人口与其交通网络的关联程度高。论文定量说明了人口流动与其交通网络的相关程度,为交通网络模拟人口流动提供了理论和实际操作层面的参考。     

新疆相对资源承载力及可持续发展时空演变特征分析

自然资源和经济资源禀赋是支撑区域人口发展的重要保障,是可持续发展的基础。本文利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000—2010年新疆的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,探讨新疆15个地区（州、市）相对资源承载力的时空演变及差异特征。结果表明:（1）以中国西部地区为参照区,新疆2000—2005年处于人口非常富余、经济超载阶段;2006—2010年是人口、经济双重非常富余阶段。（2）与西部12省(市、区)相比,能源资源是新疆的优势资源,水资源是制约新疆人口、经济发展的劣势资源。（3）以新疆为参照区,相对资源人口承载力非常富余度最大的是克拉玛依市,超载最严重的是喀什地区;相对资源经济承载力超载最严重的是吐鲁番地区,非常富余度最大的是克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州。（4）依据相对资源人口、经济承载力超载、富余状态将15个地区（州、市）归为4类资源承载力匹配区。     

中国人地关系的历史演变过程及影响机制

人地关系演变具有继承性,从历史视角认识人地关系的演变过程及机制有助于增加对人地关系的综合认知。从人地关系核心内涵出发,将资源环境要素视为人地作用的焦点,以人类的核心需求和主要活动、对“地”的作用强度及认知能力为主线,在梳理中国历史人地关系演变过程的基础上归纳其演变特征,并进一步提炼其演变动力。发现：随着人类生产力水平提高,人对“地”的认知先后经历了“混沌未知、天人合一、人地相称、人定胜天、人地和谐共生”的演变历程。与此相应,中国历史人地关系经历了从萌芽到以土地为核心的一元化关系再到以土地、水、能矿等资源为核心的无序多元化关系以及现如今重新探索有序多元化人地关系的总体历程。从历史视角看,中国人地关系演变的动力机制是：生产力是最核心的动力,促进了人对“地”作用能力的发展;人口是最活跃的动力,人口需求及人口数量和质量的提升增强了人和“地”作用的紧密程度;生产关系主要通过影响人的生产积极性及资源所有权而间接影响人地关系演变;战争和自然灾害对中国历史人地关系演变均起到促进和阻碍的双面作用。无论从理论还是实践层面,人地关系研究不能脱离时代背景。中国现代人地矛盾的形成有其必然性,以史为鉴,提升人对“地”的科学认识,实施因地制宜,加快技术研发和生产方式转型是破解中国当下人地矛盾的重要途径。     

多维度视角下新疆农村经济可持续发展

科技进步与水土资源是促进经济可持续发展的有力杠杆及资源保证,劳动力是农村经济发展的重要主体。运用生态足迹理论计算了1990-2015年的新疆农村生态人口承载力,该指标代表了农村经济可持续发展水平,并建立与农业全要素生产率、科技投入占总投入比率、水资源灌溉利用率、耕地复耕指数、新疆劳动力转移、劳动力转移性收入的VAR模型。研究结果表明：新疆农村人均资源占有量不断地增大,可承载生态人口数量逐年下降;科技投入目前对于新疆农村经济可持续发展的影响并不明显,短期看来,农业全要素生产率对于其发展有抑制作用,但长期看来有巨大的促进作用;在短期,水资源灌溉利用率有抑制作用,但在长期,有拉动作用;耕地复耕指数长期有抑制作用;短期来说,劳动力转移和劳动力转移性收入对于其发展有促进作用,长期有抑制作用。     

中国优质基础教育资源空间格局形成机制及综合效应

教育关乎一个国家人口素质的提升和综合实力的发展,也是塑造国家和地区人地关系的重要因素。通过回顾并反思中西方人文地理学视角下的教育资源配置研究,总结当前中国相关研究的不足。借鉴当前西方教育资源空间格局研究中所采取的“资源格局—影响机制—社会效应”的主流路径,本文利用多种空间分析和机制研究方法,对中国优质基础教育资源空间格局、形成机制和综合效应进行了分析。研究发现：① 优质小学基础教育资源和优质中学教育资源的区域格局和强度虽各有差异,但都体现出不平衡的发展特征,特别是在区域尺度上,体现出明显的东西部差异。此外,中国几大城市群,如京津冀,沪宁杭,珠三角,武汉都市圈以及成渝都市圈等,是优质基础教育资源的优势区域;② 优质小学教育资源的形成和规模增长与城市居民经济自由度以及城市专任教师规模两个因素高度相关;优质中学教育资源的形成和规模增长和城市本底经济社会发展水平因素高度相关;③ 在多元相关机制作用下,中国优质教育资源空间结构在当下及未来必定处于复杂动态变化之中,并将更为深刻地塑造着城市与城市、城市与社会之间的互动关系。本文有助于理解中国优质教育资源空间结构不平衡的现状,同时反思和探索教育资源结构所蕴含和产生的政治意义和社会影响。     

长三角城市经济增长与资源环境压力的脱钩效应

实现资源环境压力与经济增长的有效脱钩是经济、资源、环境、社会、人口等要素协调可持续发展的重要途径。在构建资源环境压力评价指标体系的基础上,运用脱钩理论、结构分解模型分析2000—2017年长三角地区城市经济增长与资源环境压力脱钩关系及驱动效应,以期促进长三角区域一体化发展与生态文明建设进程。研究发现：①长三角城市经济增长整体尚未完全摆脱“自然消耗增加型”模式,且区域内部城市差异较大,大部分发达城市人均资源环境压力持续降低,其它城市资源环境压力仍随经济增长而加剧;②随着时间的延续,整体上大部分城市的经济增长速度快于资源环境压力增速,全区以弱脱钩类型占绝对优势,强脱钩区域范围先扩大后缩小,中心地区的城市实现了良好的脱钩状态,仅少数边缘地市资源环境压力依然呈现较快增长趋势,未实现有效脱钩;③结构分解模型表明经济增长效应是资源环境压力增加的直接效应,且边缘欠发达城市的经济驱动效应强于核心发达城市,而经济发达城市的人口驱动效应高于欠发达城市,技术效应驱动了资源环境压力的明显下降,总体呈现出南高北低的分布格局。     

近40年来的中国人口地理学——一个跨学科研究领域的进展①

本文对20世纪80年代以来中国人口地理学的发展进行了全面综述。尽管近年来中国人口地理学在地理学科领域给人留下的是萧条、甚至被边缘化的印象,但从跨学科的角度看,该学科还是取得了巨大进展。人口地理学者在复兴中国的人口学研究中发挥了不可或缺的作用,并在这一跨学科研究领域中占据了重要地位。人口地理学者从地理学的视角出发,在人口迁移流动、城镇化、人口分布、人口与资源和环境之间的关系、老龄化、婚姻模式和移民犯罪等众多人口问题的研究上作出了重要贡献,尤其是在人口迁移流动研究和人口城镇化若干问题的研究中占据着领先地位。中国人口地理学者自20世纪80年代以来与社会科学领域学者间的交流互动不断增加,在促进学科发展的同时,也出现了一种逐渐偏离主流人文地理学的倾向;今后,中国人口地理学应更多地回归地理学领域,在人口学和人文地理学两个领域间寻求健康、平衡的定位,以促进其在跨学科领域中获得进一步发展。