Singapore in the 1990s. Can population policies reverse the demographic transition?

Singapore experienced an extraordinary demographic transition from a population growth of over 4% per year in the late 1950s to around 1.6% in the 1990s and below replacement fertility since 1986. In 1987 official government policy shifted to measures for increasing fertility. This paper explores whether Singapore's pronatalist policies can reverse the demographic transition. The present policies aim to selectively increase fertility among the well educated. By 1987 the slogan switched from "stop at two" to "have three, if you can afford it." The policy included tax relief for a third child and other measures to encourage a third child. The policies are expected to have a different influence on society according to one's education, income, and family size. The government target is to selectively increase population by 40% over 25 years. Singapore's transition may follow the theory that low fertility is attained in societies where kin relationships are less important than personal educational achievements. The three ethnic groups responded differently to educational and fertility policies. The Chinese acquired the best education and attained the lowest fertility. The Chinese, who comprised 76% of total population in 1986, continued to have low fertility, while increases occurred among the Malays and the Indians. Future trends are considered difficult to predict. A survey conducted in 1992 in Ang Mo Kio among 489 reproductive age respondents revealed that Malays had the earliest marriage and first births before the age of 25 years (75% of Malays and 50% of Indians). The Chinese had their first child at 25 years or older. Without controls for the age of the mother, a strong statistically significant association was found between ethnic group and age at marriage and age at first birth. The relationship was not supported for current fertility. A comparison of women married for 5 years or less and 5 years or more revealed that women in recent marriages showed a greater likelihood of postponing marriage and childbirth for all ethnic groups. Since 1987, third order births as a percentage of all births increased from 21.47% before 1987 to 23.11% during 1987-92, which only suggests the favorable impact of the pronatalist policy. Educational changes are likely to become more influential in affecting choice of family size.     

Family migration and the labour-force participation of married women in the Netherlands, 1977-1996

This paper analyzes the effects of long-distance migration on the labor-force participation of married women in the Netherlands by using data from the Dutch Labour-Force Surveys for the years 1977 and 1995-96. This study included married and cohabiting women aged 22-59 years. The purpose of this analysis was to gain more insight into the factors that determine whether or not these highly motivated women re-enter the labor market after the move. Results showed that married women who migrated in the year before the interview to another province had lesser participation in paid employment than other married women. Moreover, long distance migration negatively affects the labor-force participation of married women in the Netherlands. The intensity of the migration effect also differs among different groups of married women. The data from 1995-96 demonstrated that women with higher education and women who live in Randstad experienced less negative effects of migration. On the contrary, women with children at home and women whose husbands occupied higher job positions experienced stronger negative effects of migration.     

Economic status and fertility levels in the two hamlets of Sriharjo,Yogyakarta

This study elaborates on Indonesian fertility differentials based on the average number of children ever born or late births per woman. Other studies have shown that the relationship between fertility and economic class does not show a consistent pattern, being sometimes negative and sometimes positive. In the areas of Mojolama and Kedung Miri, characteristics such as occupation and economic status differ, but the relationship between age and economic status of the family was positive in both. In general, socioeconomic conditions in Majolama were better than in Kedung Miri but fertility levels were about the same at 3.6 children ever born/ever married woman in Mojolama and 3.5 in Kejung Miri, while the average of completed family size was the same, 4.8. There was a finding that women in higher economic classes tend to have a higher average number of children compared to those in lower economic classes.     

Population policy and the Five Year Plans

Population policy and the 5-year plans since 1951 in India are reivewed and evaluated in terms of limiting population growth. The family planning (FP) programs have not had a major impact on people's attitudes, practice of contraceptives, or the average fertility rate. Not enough attention has been paid to the interaction of demographic structure and economic and social development, and the implications for limiting population growth. Vital elements of a population policy are containing population growth, limiting births among the young and reproductive age groups, enhancing employment options for males and females, diversifying the economy, improving literacy and educational standards, improving urban/rural ratios, and balancing male/female ratios. Several approaches to FP programs are possible: long term measures to improve the social, economic, and demographic structure, and short term measures to immediately avert births. Long term approaches recognize the complexity of the problem. Rapid socioeconomic development is the best contraceptive for controlling India's population. A well conceived population education program can help, as will increasing the marriage age, preventing children from entering the labor market, increasing female education levels, providing old age pension and social security and other insurance, and providing maternity benefits for small families. Short term measures may provide temporary or permanent methods of averting births; i.e., contraceptives, sterilization, penalties and rewards for small families. However, it must not be a bureaucratic measure imposed from above. It must be a self generating process. The author suggests that simultaneous long and short term approaches are necessary. Research should be conducted to delineate which measures have the most impact on reducing fertility and policy be formulated in accordance with these answers. Compulsion is required, and government should not hesitate to step in. In rural areas, traditional and modern methods in FP should be tried in order to achieve responsible behavior. The population increases in India were a result of a mortality decline starting in 1921 and a fertility decline starting in 1971. Attention must focus on high fertility areas such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The 7th 5-year plan was important for making FP voluntary and generating an environment for fertility decline, and the 8th should establish FP as a self generating process.     

基于稳定映射分析的深圳绿色景观时空演化及启示

绿色景观是城市开发建设所必需的空间资源,也是城市生态功能维续的基础和载体, 其动态演变过程关乎人类福祉与城市可持续发展。本文应用1986-2005年多时序的Landsat TM/ETM+遥感数据,采用改进型稳定映射变化轨迹分析、景观格局指数和系统聚类方法,综 合分析城市化以来深圳市绿色景观的时空动态演变过程,探讨其空间发生机制。结果表明： 研究期内深圳市绿色景观面积和类型组成变化显著,且均在1995年前后出现变幅拐点,具明 显的阶段性特征;全市绿色景观动态变化轨迹包括4大类、2中类和13小类,以类内转化过程 比例最高 (30.5%),由此引发的潜在生态环境影响应成为今后城市景观演变与生态环境效应研 究的一大重点;各类绿色景观变化轨迹形成集聚型、相对集聚型和分散型空间布局,长期保 持过程集中分布于高海拔地区,与低海拔区域分布的波动、消失过程构成空间共轭关系,地 形条件成为深圳市57%以上绿色景观的天然庇护。而在地形平坦的城市中,如何在快速城市化 过程中有效保留充足、高质量的绿色景观资源,是值得进一步深入探讨的问题。     

The Influence of Household Type on Gender Differences in Work Trip Distance*

Conflicting evidence exists in the literature on commuting about whether or not the greater household responsibilities of women lead to their widely observed shorter work trips compared to men. In light of changes in American houehold structures, this study reexamines the household responsibility hypothesis by focusing on household type (defined in terms of number of workers present in the home). Male and female work-trip distances are compared for Baltimore workers in single-worker households and for those in two-worker households. The findings support the household responsibility hypothesis by showing a larger and more significant sex disparity among respondents in two-worker households than among those in single-worker households even after controlling for other factors, including presence of children. These results, and the finding that married women have shorter work trips than married men, are in line with the general conclusions of some previous studies that the unequal division of labor within the household is partly responsible for the gender differnce.     

A geospatial approach to assessing land change in the built-up landscape of Wa Municipality of Ghana

ABSTRACT

Urban landscapes are changing in response to changes in socio-economic conditions. Land change scientists seek to understand these land dynamics in the coupled human-environment system of urban landscapes. This study assessed land change in the built-up area of Wa Municipality between 1986 and 2016 using Landsat images. We used the Support Vector Machine algorithm for classifying the images. We recorded image classification accuracies of 97%, 95%, 92% and 96% for the 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016 classified images, respectively. Our study finds that over the 1986–2016 period, agricultural land and bare land transitioned to build-up land by 9.23% and 3.79%, respectively, as compared to 2.79% for vegetation and 0.05% for water. Our in-municipal level analysis thus shows that urban landscapes could expand more sustainably by targeting other dominant land categories instead of the vegetation cover. The findings in this paper could serve as a spatial model for planning and reducing the unintended socio-ecological impacts of expansion in the built-up area.     

Geography and migration policies: the Indian experience

This paper attempts to examine the differences in sex preference and its impact on fertility behavior among various age groups in the State of Haryana. In India, male children have greater utility over females because of religious, social and economic reasons. Various studies have established the fact that there is a prevalence of sex preference and a marked relationship between son preference and family size. This leads to increased fertility, and ultimately towards population growth rate. Data were collected from the National Family Health Survey report in 1993. The intensity of sex preference on fertility was computed on the basis of contraception method. Moreover, detailed analysis was carried out on the basis of desired additional children and their sex ratio. This study also presents an examination of the Indian system, family planning measures, sex ratio of desired additional children taken as a basis for the measurement of overall effect of sex preference on fertility.     

北京市老年人口迁移意愿及影响因素研究

北京正处于快速老龄化阶段,随着城市化进程的加深,迁移老年人的生活环境发生着剧烈的变化。分析北京市城市功能拓展区中老年人的迁移意愿及其影响因素,具有重要的实践意义。选择北京城市功能拓展区中4个新建小区为案例区,收集有效调查问卷353份,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归研究北京市老年人口的迁移意愿及其影响因素。研究发现：已迁移老年人中,71.4%的老年人愿意迁移。与子女居住距离的变化、孙辈的出生以及居住条件的改善是自主迁移老年人迁移的主要原因。老年人生命历程的变化对迁移行为有重要影响。老年人的身体健康、经济条件、与子女居住距离和居住环境对其迁移意愿影响显著。本文的研究意义在于结合老年人迁移的影响因素与宜居社区建设政策,为构建老年宜居社区提供科学依据。     

Manoeuvring the middle ground: Social mobility and the renegotiation of gender and family obligations among Chinese Singaporeans

The article examines Singaporeans' experiences of upward social mobility and how traditional gender roles within the family are renegotiated and reinterpreted in Singapore. When the former British colony gained independence in 1965 its post-colonial government embarked on an ambitious modernization programme, under which villages were demolished and residents relocated to new high-rise estates, farmland gave way to factories, the education system was reformed, and women entered the workforce. The transformation has been accompanied by a rapid upward social mobility, whereby Singaporeans born in the midst of the transformation, in the period 1960s – 1980s, lived remarkably different lives compared with preceding generations. The article is an ethnographic analysis of how Singaporean middle-class women and men, who have experienced rapid upward social mobility, handle and negotiate changing expectations regarding gender and intergenerational support. The analytical framework is constructed around the concepts of social mobility, modernity, and spaces of contestation and negotiation. The ethnographic data illuminate how traditional family values, such as filial piety, are contested and renegotiated. The data also show how social mobility intersects with other forms of mobility, such as the spatial movement involved in urbanization. Women entering the labour force have to spend their days away from home and can no longer fully attend to their elderly family members and/or young children. However, spatial movement in the sense of increased access to transportation and communication has also enabled members of extended families to maintain their ‘urban kinship network’ without having to live together.     

基于主成分分析的BP神经网络在城市建成区面积预测中的应用——以北京市为例

城市建成区规模受社会、经济、城市环境等诸多因素影响, 传统统计方法难以准确预测城 市建成区的面积。人工神经网络具有良好的非线性映射逼近性能, 在各类预测研究中得到了广泛 的应用, 尤其是BP 神经网络。主成分分析可以在有效保留数据信息前提下对数据进行降维, 它 与BP 神经网络的结合主要在数据输入端, 通过减少输入层神经元个数, 增强网络性能, 提高预 测精度。本文以北京市为例, 综合运用主成分分析和BP 神经网络方法建立预测模型, 以1986~ 2003 年数据为学习样本, 以2004 年数据为检验样本, 对2005 年北京市城市建成区面积进行模 拟预测。预测结果表明, 基于主成分分析的BP 神经网络预测结果与实际值的相对误差为2.8%, 比传统BP 神经网络预测精度提高1.8 个百分点, 网络训练收敛速度也更快, 其预测精度和效率 都有不同程度的改善。     

南昌城市社会区研究--基于第五次人口普查数据的分析

中国城市社会区分异的研究起步较晚,现有的研究成果基本都是讨论计划经济体制向市场经济体制转轨初期的城市社会区分异现象。本文以南昌市为例,利用分街道第五次人口普查数据,运用因子生态学的方法,对改革开放20年后社会主义市场经济体制作用下的城市社会区进行研究。研究结果显示,住房状况、文化与职业状况、家庭状况和外来人口状况是南昌城市社会区分异的主要影响因子,其中家庭状况因子的空间分布呈现出同心圆模式和扇形模式的复合特征,其他因子的空间分布则具有扇形模式的特征。根据主因子的分布情况,南昌城市社会区可以划分为七类,社会区的空间分布形成一种同心圆和扇形的复合结构。     

Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.     

Proximity of adult children to their parents in Great Britain

Much of the authors' knowledge of kin interaction and exchange in Britain is partial, in that it is based on studies of co-resident groups and excludes consideration of kin "beyond the household". It is known that there have been large declines in intergenerational co-residence, raising fears that family bonds have weakened. It is also commonly assumed that family members are less likely to live in close proximity than in the past. In this paper the authors examine one important aspect of kin relationships--proximity of adult children to their parents--using nationally representative data from 1986, 1995, and 1999. The analyses presented focus on: differences between 1986, 1995, and 1999 in proximity of adults to their parents; sociodemographic characteristics associated with variations in proximity, and temporal differences in the pattern of these variations. The paper concludes with an assessment of some of the policy implications of the findings.     

On the search for an urban definition at the European level

At the European level (meaning in this context members of the European Union) one is trying to clarify the concept of the town and to define urban units. The need for statistics related to urban areas is clearly expressed, since 80‰ of the population of the Union live in urban areas, and several community policies are directed at or affecting urban areas.

But one main problem still remains: what is an urban unit? Sometimes it is used about administrative units of considerable size (100 000 inhabitants or more), embodying the whole or parts of what is traditionally thought of as a city. When talking about urban areas in general, the confusion is obvious. It is unclear to what extent separate small, densely built-up units are included, and how, for instance, suburban areas are treated. Is the urban unit administrative, morphological or functional? Since no common urban definition is implemented in Europe, there is a fundamental lack of comparability of urban statistics at this level.     

白银市城市空间组织演化过程及其合理性分析

城市是一个复杂的自组织巨系统,但人类的干预作用几乎伴随其成长的整个过程。我国的资源型城市作为一类特殊城市在其空间发展变化中都留下了自组织与他组织的作用烙印,科学认识二者作用下的空间成长变化规律对实施转型发展具有积极意义。以白银市为例,选择白银城区1953年、1986年、2000年、2016年建设用地为数据源,运用GIS方法对白银城区空间扩展演化进行定量分析,结果表明：（1）白银市城市空间演变经历了城市兴起成长的他组织主导空间扩展期（1953-1986年）、城市波动发展的自-他组织共同作用的空间扩展期（1987-2000年）与转型发展的自组织主导空间扩展期（2000-2016年）三个阶段,虽然自组织机制在城市空间演变中的作用不断增强,但他组织机制仍发挥着不可或缺的引导管理作用。（2）城市空间扩展强度在纵向上不断增大,不同阶段各类型建设用地扩展强度差异显著,各有侧重,而在横向上方位分异性突出,各阶段有各自的主导扩展方向。表明在国家经济体制、城市经济转型和城市空间结构等变化过程中,自组织机制与他组织机制随其变化而影响到空间扩展强度和范围的变化。（3）各阶段白银市城市空间的建设用地结构不尽合理,工业用地占总建设用地的比例过大,虽凸显了资源型城市的特质,但严重超国家标准。同时,无论是单项人均居住与工业用地,还是人均建设用地都大幅超国家标准。（4）城市空间与城市人口和经济的相对增长关系趋好性显著,城市空间形态的离散程度与分形维数降低,空间紧凑度提升。表明城市空间扩展的演化方向是一个能够发挥自组织机制和他组织机制的优势互补的优化过程。     

Narrative explorations and self-esteem: research,intervention and policy for HIV prevention in the sex industry in Thailand

This paper reports on a project that integrates basic behavioral and need assessment research with program design, implementation and evaluation to promote consistent condom use in the sex industry of Thailand. The project structure consisted of Phase I, which provided a detailed psychosocial investigation into the factors influencing condom use by female sex workers in Thailand. Phase II translated the research findings of Phase I into an operational intervention. This involved an integrated series of stages including pre-program needs assessment, intervention design, implementation, evaluation, and finally dissemination and policy integration. As a basis for open discussion and personal exploration the use of dramatic narrative scenarios on video were used to depict the problems experienced by sex workers. This program was implemented in high and low-income establishments in central Thailand; evaluation was performed through pre/post-test, intervention and control, and quasi-experimental design. Findings demonstrated an increase in the consistency of condom use over a period of 1 month among the low-income intervention group, from 66% (pre-test) to 86% (post-test), while there was no significant change observed among the sex workers in the control group.     

The Northeast Arctic cod stock's place in the Barents Sea ecosystem in the 1980s: an overview

Just after World War II the size of the Northeast Arctic cod ( Gadus morhua ) stock was about 6 million tonnes, but at the beginning of the 1980s the stock had been reduced to 1 million tonnes, due mainly to the excessively high fishing-mortality. Nevertheless, the stock produced strong year classes at the 0-group stage in the relatively warm period 1983-1985. At the same time, individual growth in the cod stock was good, and in 1986 the stock size increased to over 1.5 million tonnes.
However, the cod preyed increasingly on the capelin ( Mallotus villosus ) present, and by the end of 1986 the capelin stock was seriously depleted. The cod compensated for the loss of capelin by preying more intensively on other food items, including smaller cod. Cannibalism increased by a factor of three from 1984 to 1986, and this is one important reason why the 1984 and 1985 year classes did not recruit to the fisheries as expected. Individual growth was dramatically reduced, and the average fish weight decreased by about 50% in most age groups. Because the quotas are in tonnes, more fish than expected were caught. This resulted in serious management problems and led to reductions both in stock size and quotas compared to the optimistic prognosis of the mid-1980s.     

兰州市居民居住偏好研究

采用访谈式调查和问卷调查相结合的方法,对兰州市城区居民的择居偏好和对居住环境的满意度进行了较为广泛的调查,并在描述这种现象的基础上分析对兰州市房地产市场的影响。随后,采用统计分析方法,分析得出:(1)交通便利程度、住房价格、住房位置、子女教育等四个方面是兰州市居民择居过程中考虑的主要因素;(2)收入、职业、年龄对居民择居偏好影响较小;(3)城关区仍然是居民主要考虑居住的区域,达50%的市民向往居住,安宁区居于其次,对居民具有一定的吸引力,25%的市民向往居住;(4)兰州市居住空间呈现出向各组团中心集中发展的态势,并没出现十分明显的郊区化现象。近几年兰州市的居住区建设主要是各组团的中心地带,其中城关-七里河组团在离中心6 km的范围内居住用地增长幅度较大,6 km以外的区域居住用地呈减少的趋势;西固和安宁组团的居住用地变化不是十分明显,但是在离中心2 km范围内居住用地呈增长的趋势,外围区域的居住用地呈减少的态势。     

The role of local land-use on the urban heat island effect of Tel Aviv as assessed from satellite remote sensing

Climate change in cities has received much focus in the past few decades. Heat stress in urban areas has an adverse effect on human health and is expected to worsen in the future due to the global warming. Vegetation has been shown to mitigate this effect, but introducing ‘green’ areas into the metropolitan space is a challenging task. We assessed the thermal load in terms of surface temperature in Tel Aviv, the biggest metropolitan area of Israel. The thermal effect of four different urban land uses was estimated. Specifically, we compared the cooling effect of residential areas with high vegetation cover (referred here as ‘green’ residential) to that of small to medium size (2–40 ha) public parks. To this end, we used satellite data of land surface temperature (LST) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), as a surrogate for vegetation cover. High-temporal data were combined with high spatial resolutions data to produce 10-year average LST and NDVI maps at high spatial resolution over Tel Aviv. As expected, industrial areas had the highest LST due to lowest ratio of vegetation to free space area (1%), while ‘green’ areas displayed the lowest LST. Green residential and small-medium public parks had comparable thermal loads, with green residential having slightly lower LST (by 0.5 °C). In general, small-medium public parks displayed higher LST than expected. Inefficient use of free spaces for vegetation, i.e., relatively low vegetation cover to free space ratio, was probably the main cause for this. Public parks had a higher local cooling effect, but a less continuous one on the proximate surrounding (30–90 m from the park), probably due to their relative location in the urban fabric. Our results suggest that ‘greening’ areas within the private urban space should be encouraged at the expense of building new small-medium parks in metropolitan areas that lack the sufficient free space for larger parks. The outcome of this study may have key implications for urban planners seeking to mitigate urban heat island effects under the limitation of existing dense urban layout.