Storms and shoreline retreat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Storms play a major role in shoreline recession on transgressive coasts. In the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), southeastern Canada, long-term relative sea-level rise off the North Shore of Prince Edward Island has averaged 0.3 m/century over the past 6000 years (>0.2 m/century over 2000 years). This has driven long-term coastal retreat at mean rates >0.5 m/a but the variance and details of coastal profile response remain poorly understood. Despite extensive sandy shores, sediment supply is limited and sand is transferred landward into multidecadal to century-scale storage in coastal dunes, barrier washover deposits, and flood-tidal delta sinks. Charlottetown tide-gauge records show mean relative sea-level rise of 3.2 mm/a (0.32 m/century) since 1911. A further rise of 0.7±0.4 m is projected over the next 100 years. When differenced from tidal predictions, the water-level data provide a 90-year record of storm-surge occurrence. Combined with wind, wave hindcast, and sea-ice data, this provides a catalogue of potentially significant coastal storms. We also document coastal impacts from three recent storms of great severity in January and October 2000 and November 2001. Digital photogrammetry (1935–1990) and shore-zone surveys (1989–2001) show large spatial and temporal variance in coastal recession rates, weakly correlated with the storm record, in part because of wave suppression or coastal protection by sea ice. Large storms cause rapid erosion from which recovery depends in part on local sand supply, but barrier volume may be conserved by washover deposition. Barrier shores with dunes show high longshore and interdecadal variance, with extensive multidecadal healing of former inlet and overwash gaps. This reflects recovery from an episode of widespread overwash prior to 1935, possibly initiated by intense storms or groups of storms in the latter half of the 19th century. With evidence from the storms of 2000–2001, this points to the importance of storm clustering on scales of weeks to years in determining erosion vulnerability, as well as the need for a long-term, large-scale perspective in assessing coastal stability. The expected acceleration in relative sea-level rise, together with projections of increasing storm intensity and greatly diminished winter ice cover in the southern GSL, implies a significant increase in coastal erosion hazards in future.     

Assessing the global averaged sea-level budget from 2003 to 2010

A global mass balance （Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet mass loss, terrestrial water storage） and differ- ent sea-level components （observed sea-level from satellite altimetry, steric sea-level from Ishii data, and ocean mass from gravity recovery and climate experiment, GRACE） are estimated, in terms of seasonal and interannual variabilities from 2003 to 2010. The results show that a detailed analysis of the GRACE time series over the time period 2003-2010 unambiguously reveals an increase in mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctica ice sheet. The mass loss of both ice sheets accelerated at a rate of （392.8±70.0） Gt/a during 2003-2010, which contributed （1.09±0.19） mm/a to the global mean sea-level during this time. The net terrestrial water storage （TWS） trend was negative over the 8 a time span, which gave a small positive contribution of （0.25±0.12） mm/a. The interannual variability of the global mean sea-level was at least part- ly caused by year-to-year variability of land water storage. Estimating GRACE-based ice sheet mass balance and terrestrial water storage by using published estimates for melting glaciers, the results further show that the ocean mass increase since 2003 has resulted half from an enhanced contribution of the polar ice sheets, and half from the combined ice sheet and terrestrial water storage loss. Taking also into account the melt- ing of mountain glaciers （0.41 mm/a） and the small GRACE-based contribution from continental waters （0.25 mm/a）, a total ocean mass contribution of （1.75±0.57） mm/a from 2003 to 2010 is found. Such a value represented 75% of the altimetry-based rate of sea-level rise over that period. The contributions to steric sea-level （i.e., ocean thermal expansion plus salinity effects） are estimated from： （1） the difference between altimetry-based sea-level and ocean mass change and （2） the latest Ishii data. The inferred steric sea-level rate from （1） （1.41 mm/a from 2003 to 2010） did not agree well with the Ishii-based value also estimated here （0.44 mm/a from 2003 to 2010）, but phase. The cause for such a discrepancy is not yet known but may be related to inadequate sampling of in situ ocean temperature and salinity measurements.     

Post-Calabrian sequence stratigraphy of the northwestern Alboran Sea (southwestern Mediterranean)

The post-Calabrian sedimentary column of the northwestern Alboran Sea comprises three depositional sequences. The two older depositional sequences are defined by lowstand systems tracts (shelf-margin deltas, slope, base-of-slope, and basin deposits, and the Guadiaro channel-levee complex). In contrast, the most recent depositional sequence also includes transgressive (relict shelf facies) and high-stand (the Guadalmedina-Guadalhorce prodelta and hemipelagic facies) systems tracts. The stratigraphic architecture of these depositional sequences is controlled by the synchronism between high frequency sea-level changes, variations in sediment supply, and sedimentary processes. The configuration of the depositional sequences is variable and their distribution is complex, as a result of the relative importance played by sea-level changes and tectonism through the area.

The sequence boundaries are represented by polygenetic surfaces in the proximal margin, and by monogenetic surfaces in the distal margin and basin. Each polygenetic surface results from the interaction between the sequence boundary with the lowstand erosional truncation surface and the transgressive surface, both developed during the previous sea-level cycle. The monogenetic surfaces correspond to unconformities and their correlative conformities, formed during sea-level lowstands. This pattern of depositional sequences developed in the margin and basin of the northwestern Alboran Sea shows differences with the Exxon Sequence Stratigraphy Model as traditionally applied: sea-level change control is essentially recognized through lowstand systems tracts, and sequence boundary coincides with lowstand erosional truncation surface and transgressive surface, both developed during the previous sea-level cycle.     

Sea level changes south of Japan associated with the non-large-meander path of the Kuroshio

Sea levels south of Japan from 1964 to 1975 are examined in terms of the nearshore and offshore non-large-meander (NLM) paths of the Kuroshio and the transitions between them.The sea-level anomalies from the annual variations on the south coast of Japan are much larger during the transition from the nearshore to offshore NLM paths than during the reverse transition by 9 cm on average. This characteristic can be seen only in the coastal region of the Kuroshio-flowing area, so that the sea-level difference of Naze minus Nishinoomote (indicator of Kuroshio velocity) during the offshore to nearshore transition is larger by 15 cm than during the reverse transition.The transition from the offshore to nearshore NLM paths occurs when the velocity of the Kuroshio is large or increasing, while the nearshore to offshore transition occurs when it is small or decreasing. The former transition occurs whenever the velocity increases greatly, whereas the latter one does not always occur even though the velocity decreases.The sea-level difference between Kushimoto and Uragami is highly coherent with the alternate appearance of the nearshore and offshore NLM paths. Offshore NLM paths longer than 2.5 months appear during large falls of the sea-level difference of Kushimoto minus Uragami, while large rises of the sea-level difference correspond to long-lasting nearshore NLM paths. The mean sea-level difference during the nearshore NLM path is larger by 4 cm than that during the offshore NLM path.     

Human impacts overwhelm the effects of sea-level rise on Basque coastal habitats (N Spain) between 1954 and 2004

According to coastal measurements, global mean sea-level has risen at a rate of 1.8 mm yr⁻¹ between 1950 and 2000, with large spatial variability at regional scales. Within the Bay of Biscay, trends computed from coastal tide gauges records have revealed that sea-level rise is accelerating over this period of time; this is in agreement with rates obtained from satellite imagery in the open ocean since 1993. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to assess the evidence of the relative sea-level rise on coastal morphology and habitats in the Gipuzkoan littoral zone (Basque coast, northern Spain) for the period 1954–2004, and (2) to evaluate the relative contribution of local anthropogenic versus sea-level rise impacts for explaining inter-supratidal habitat changes. A high-resolution airborne laser altimetry data (LIDAR) has been used to derive a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of 15-cm vertical resolution. Coastal habitats were mapped for two periods, using historic airborne photography (1954) and high-resolution imagery (2004). Analysis of tide gauge records from Santander (northern Spain) has revealed that relative mean sea-level has been rising at a rate of 2.08 ± 0.33 mm yr⁻¹ from 1943 to 2004; this is consistent with sea-level trends from other measurements within the area (St. Jean de Luz and Bilbao), obtained over shorter periods of time, and with previous results obtained in the Bay of Biscay. Based upon this sea-level trend and by means of a LIDAR-based DTM, the results have indicated that the predicted change along the Gipuzkoan coast due to sea-level rise was of 11.1 ha within the 50-yr period. In contrast, comparison of historical and recent orthophotography has detected only 2.95 ha of change, originated possibly from sea-level rise, and 98 ha transformed by anthropogenic impacts. Hence, coastal changes due to sea-level rise might be overwhelmed by excessive human impacts, at the spatial and temporal scales of the analysis. This work highlights that local anthropogenic impact is the major threat to Basque coastal and estuarine habitats, compared with natural erosive processes and global climate change driving forces over recent times.     

Preliminary study on the sea level change and its long-term prognostic method for Shanghai

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One-Dimensional Hydraulic Analysis of the Effect of Sea Level Rise on Salinity Intrusion in the Sebou Estuary,Morocco

Global climate change has resulted in a gradual sea-level rise. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, thereby threatening freshwater habitat and drinking water supplies. On the other hand, sea-level rise, resulting from thermal expansion of ocean waters and increased melting of glaciers and ice caps, is one of the most apparent and widespread consequences of climate change. This phenomenon has been taken into account in all the Assessment Reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this paper, salinity intrusion and intrusion length due to possible sea-level rise in the Sebou estuary (Morocco) was investigated. A one-dimensional hydrodynamic-salinity transport model was used for the simulation of the salinity intrusion and associated water quality, with observed field data being used for model calibration and validation. Additionally, the model validation process showed that the model results fit the observed data fairly well. A coupled gas-cycle/climate model was used to generate the climate change scenarios in the studied area that showed sea-level rises varying from 0.3 to 0.9 m for 2100. The models were then combined to assess the impact of future sea-level rise on the salinity distribution and intrusion length in the Sebou estuary. The response of salt intrusion length to changes in important dimensional parameters are presented, showing that the salinity intrusion length is inversely correlated with the river discharge, i.e., a high river discharge results in a reduced salt intrusion and vice versa, and directly with the sea-level rise. Additionally, the magnitude and frequency of the salinity standard violations at the two pump stations were predicted for 2100, showing that the salinity violations under climate change effects can increase to ～45–48% of the times at these locations. Finally, the main objective of this simulation method is to accelerate and facilitate of systems' behavior learning in the current and future situation.     

东海海平面变化的综合分析

利用1993年1月至2011年12月的卫星高度计数据,研究了东海海平面变化的季节信号、线性趋势和低频信号,并结合风应力资料、Ishii温盐数据和海表面温度数据分析了季节信号和低频信号的驱动机制。东海季节性海平面变化主要由年信号组成,其占海平面变化的大部分;年信号振幅和相位的分布具有明显的区域差异;东海季节性海平面变化主要受海面风和海水热膨胀驱动,而且在不同季节、不同区域,两种驱动机制的作用存在明显差异,主导地位也不断变化;季节信号还受到黑潮的一定影响。1993-2011年间东海海平面线性上升速率为3.28mm/a,各海域海平面上升速率不同。东海海平面变化低频信号与比容海平面变化低频信号具有显著相关性,最大相关系数为0.55;东海比容海平面变化低频信号与SOI低频信号同样具有一定的相关性,最大相关系数为0.3。ENSO通过大气环流和黑潮洋流等对东海海域的比容海平面变化产生影响,比容海平面变化进而对东海年际间海平面变化产生调制作用,因此ENSO可以通过东海年际间比容海平面变化对东海年际间海平面变化产生影响。     

钢筋混凝土梁结构断裂损伤诊断方法

提出一种基于BP神经网络的结构破损诊断方法,该方法以结构破损前后柔度的变化作为破损诊断网络输入,为了解决由于系统响应样本数据空间分布不均匀对网络收敛速度及网络诊断影响问题,对网络训练样本采用广义空间格点进行了交换,模拟算例及应用实例均表明,本文方法能准确诊断结构破损位置与破坏程度,是一种有效的结构破损诊断方法.     

Preliminary research on sea-level changes of the South China coast since late Epipleistocene

Several views on sea-level changes of the South China coast are briefly introduced in this paper. On the basis of 236 samples whose ages are determined by 14C chronological method and their sites are corrected with ancient water depth and crustal deformation, a basic model about sea-level changes of the South China coast since late Epipleistocene is set up. This model basically accords with the general cognitions of predecessors, i. e. it not only represents the common characteristics of sea-level changes of the East China coast but has some features of the South China coast itself. In general, this model is relatively close to the Fairbridge's curve, indicating that the sea-level undulations exist since 6 ka ago but the ranges of undulations are slightly larger than those of Fairbridge's curve.     

Quaternary geology of the Amazonian Lowland

The Quaternary history of the Amazon lowlands is characterized by deposition of sediments of Andean provenance and by the influences of changing sea levels. Areas well above the present water tables were not reached by Pleistocene high-water stages. These areas have been intensively weathered since the Tertiary, forming hard lateritic weathering horizons. These weathering horizons are best explained by the relatively constant, humid tropical climate throughout the Quaternary. In the western Amazonian Lowland, flood plains corresponding to the different Pleistocene sea-level heights were formed. During low sea level, erosion in the drainage areas increased and the water levels of the central Amazon River system were lowered. Valleys drowned and lakes formed in the lower reaches of rivers and creeks during high sea-level stages. These lakes (ria lakes) remained in the valleys with rivers having a low sediment load. Seismic profiling (3.5 kHz) in some of these lakes clearly showed deposits of the three last periods of Quaternary high sea-level stages.     

Discussion of Boretti,A., ‘Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?’, Coastal Engineering, 64, 161–167, June 2012

Boretti (2012) claims that sea-level records show insufficient acceleration to support the projections of sea-level rise that are used worldwide for planning and policy-making. Unfortunately, his claim is based more on flawed qualitative reasoning than on quantitative analysis.We replicate Boretti's methodology of fitting quadratic functions to tide-gauge observations from Fremantle and Sydney, in order to estimate the sea-level acceleration. However, we also evaluate the uncertainty in these estimates (a crucial step, omitted by Boretti), and thereby show that the observed accelerations are statistically consistent with the projections of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our finding is the same when we repeat this analysis using two data sets which have smaller uncertainties, one from satellite altimeters and the other from a sea-level reconstruction.We therefore conclude that Boretti's claim is without foundation.     

南沙群岛永暑礁第四纪珊瑚礁成岩作用与海平面变化关系

应用现代地表不同环境的碳酸盐成岩特征，分析“南永１井”井深１５２ｍ的珊瑚礁岩心的成岩变化，发现这１５２ｍ珊瑚礁层中有３个沉积间断面（分别位于井深１７，９０和１４２ｍ处），分为４个沉积旋回，分属４次海平面上升期建造，３个沉积间断面是３次海平面下降期形成的。     

Holocene excursions of the Northwest European geoid

Computer-assisted analyses of more than 600 radiocarbon-dated sea-level indicators from northwestern Europe, concentrated around the North Sea margin, indicate that vertical crustal movements are more important that eustatic sea-level change in determining the locus of Holocene shoreline positions through time. For the past 14,000 radiocarbon years, the divergence of sea-level data for the northwest European sectors exceeds the maximum estimated sea-level rise by a factor of two or more. Projecting these data to a single meridian demonstrates the remarkable variety of vertical crustal movement in northwestern Europe.Accumulating radiocarbon-dated sea-level indicators into millennial cohorts, we generate isobase maps which begin to specify areas of notable vertical crustal mobility. These isobase maps appear to confirm that eustatic sea-level rise is subordinate to postglacial geoidal excursions in determining the locus of contemporary northwestern European shorelines.     

Seismic and sequence stratigraphy of the central western continental margin of India: late-Quaternary evolution

Seismic and sequence stratigraphic architecture of the central western continental margin of India (between Coondapur and south of Mangalore) has been investigated with shallow seismic data. Seismic stratigraphic analysis defined nine seismic units, that are configured in a major type-1 depositional sequence possibly related to fourth-order eustatic sea-level changes, comprising regressive, lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. The late-Quaternary evolution of the continental margin took place under the influence of an asymmetric relative fourth-order sea-level cycle punctuated by higher frequency cycles. These cycles of minor order were characterised by rapid sea-level rises and gradual sea-level falls that generated depositional sequences spanning different time scales. During the regressive periods, dipping strata were developed, while erosional surfaces and incised valleys were formed during the lowstands of sea level. Terraces, v-shaped depressions, lagoon-like structures observed on the outer continental shelf are the result of the transgressive period. In the study area we have recognised a complex erosional surface that records a long time span during the relative sea-level fall (regressive period) and the following sea-level lowstand and has been reworked during the last transgression. We also infer that sedimentation processes changed from siliciclastic sedimentation to carbonate sedimentation and again to siliciclastic sedimentation, marking an important phase in the late-Quaternary evolution of the western continental shelf of India. We attribute this to an abrupt climate change at the end of the oxygen isotope stage 2, between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Bølling-Allerod event (14?000 yr BP). This sensitive climate change (warming) favoured the formation of reefs at various depths on the shelf, besides the development of Fifty Fathom Flat, a carbonate platform on the outer shelf off Bombay developed prior to 8300 yr BP. The highstand systems tracts were deposited after the sea level reached its present position.     

Sea-level variation/change and thermal contribution in the Bering Sea

The long-term sea-level trend in the Bering Sea is obtained by the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data, including the data of two tide gauges. The averaged sea-level in the Bering Sea rises at a rate of 2.47 mm/a from 1992 to 2002. The mean sea-level is falling in the most part of the Bering Sea, especially in its central basin, and it is rising in the northeastern part of the Bering Sea. During the 1998/99 change, the sea-level anomaly differences exhibit a significant sea-level anomaly fall in the deep basin of the Bering Sea,which is roughly in the same position where a prominent SST fall exists. The maximal fall of sea-level is about 10 cm in the southwestern part of the Bering Sea, and the maximal fall of about 2℃ in the SST also appeared in the same region as the sea level did.The steric sea-level change due to temperature variations is discussed. The results are compared with the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data at the different spatial scales. It is indicated that the seasonal amplitude of the steric height is about 35% of the observed TOPEX/Poseidon amplitude, which is much smaller than the 83% in the mid-latitudes area. The systematic difference between the TOPEX/Poseidon data with the range of about 7.5 cm and the thermal contribution with the range of about 2.5 cm is about 5 cm. This indicates that the thermal effect on the sea level is not as important as the case in the mid-latitudes area. In the Bering Sea, the phase of the steric height leads the observed sea level by about three months.     

Sea-level modelling: The past and the future

The development of an analytical expression to describe the natural variation of global temperature and related climatic variables over periods from a few years or less to over a billion years is shown and seen to match the variation of eustatic sea-level over similar periods. An additional anthropogenic factor to take the greenhouse effect into account is added to this natural climatic variation giving close correlation between the combined natural-plus-anthropogenic model of global temperature variation and its observed history over the past century. This provides grounds for confidence in the subsequent deterministic forecast for the combined model and its sea-level counterpart of, for instance, about 0.7m rise by 2050AD.A tentative physical explanation of the natural climate model is given invoking the possibility that the Universal Gravitational Constant (G) may, in fact, be a variable. In parallel, the anthropogenic climate model is underlined by alluding to a theoretical explanation of the population growth mechanism which largely drives it. The interactive nature of the impact of man on sea-level rise and vice versa is stressed.     

Variability of the Kuroshio deduced from sea level data from the Izu Islands

Flow patterns and positions of the Kuroshio in the vicinity of the Izu Ridge are clarified by analyzing hydrographic observations and daily mean sea levels at Hachijo-jima, Miyake-jima and Oshima in the period from 1964 to 1981.Correlations are calculated between differences of dynamic depth anomaly at the surface refered to 1,000 db and differences of daily mean sea level between the two islands. The datum line of the tidal station at Hachijo-jima is about 90 cm higher than that at Miyake-jima, and about 20 cm higher than that at Oshima. A clear correlation is found between the cross-section transport of the Kuroshio and the mean sea-level difference between Hachijo-jima and Miyake-jima. The sea-level difference of the flow pattern without meander off Enshu-nada (type N) tends to be larger than that of the flow patterns with meander (type A and type B). This seems to indicate that the volume transport of the Kuroshio in the meandering period is smaller than that during the straight path period. Large sudden increases or decreases in the mean sea-level difference occur when the flow pattern changes and the Kuroshio axis shifts. The frequency of occurrence of quiet periods in the sea-level difference reflect the flow pattern of the Kuroshio.     

Submerged reef terraces of the Maldives (Indian Ocean)

There is limited knowledge about the record of sea-level rise from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until the onset of Holocene reef growth in the Maldives archipelago. Multibeam data show that atoll slopes between 130 and 55 mbsl (meters below sea level) are characterized by a step-like morphology. In parts, these terraces show a raised rim and a crenate geometry. Atoll margin features can be interpreted as successive reef-growth and -drowning stages, which are attributable to changes in the rate of sea-level rise. These changes can tentatively be correlated to known records of global sea-level change since the LGM. In addition to terraces between 97 and 55 mbsl, which can be associated with the initiation of meltwater pulses MWP-1A and -1B, several reef-drowning stages between 94 and 68 mbsl are proposed. As the Maldives can be considered a tectonically stable, far-field site, the submerged reef terraces inferred from the first multibeam dataset for this region likely represent a valuable archive for global deglacial sea-level history in the Indian Ocean.     

Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone

The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a ‘best estimate’ of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a ‘worst-case’ scenario, obtained by combining the ‘economic development first’ scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a ‘best-case’ scenario, by combining the ‘sustainability first’ scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise.