An application of Bayesian spatial statistical methods to the study of racial and poverty segregation and infant mortality rates in the US

The infant mortality rate is a fundamental measure of population health used internationally. In the United States, the infant mortality rate is higher than what would be expected for a country of its affluence. We present an analysis of US county infant mortality rates using modern Bayesian spatial statistical methodologies. Our key predictors in our statistical analysis are residential racial and poverty segregation, measured by the dissimilarity, interaction and spatial proximity indexes. We use both Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis methods and Hierarchical Bayesian spatial regression models to examine the influences of these segregation measures on the infant mortality rate for each county, net of income inequality, degree of rurality and relative socioeconomic deprivation. The spatial measures of racial segregation suggest that when blacks live in close proximity to each other, this tends to increase the infant mortality rate. The results for poverty segregation suggest the same pattern, when poor populations live in close proximity to one another this is generally detrimental to the county infant mortality rate. However, interaction between blacks and whites and poor and non-poor residents of an area is protective for infant mortality.     

Modern and post-modern cities and ethnic residential segregation: Is Los Angeles different?

Dear and others associated with the ‘Los Angeles School of Urbanism’ have presented a series of challenging ideas regarding changes in urban form as a consequence of the shift from modernism to post-modernism. Some of those challenges relate to a city’s ethnic diversity and residential segregation, with Los Angeles presented as a paradigm exemplar of an emerging new urban form. This paper evaluates the arguments that Los Angeles in particular, and Californian metropolitan areas more generally, differ from metropolitan areas elsewhere in the United States in the nature of ethnic residential segregation there. Regression analyses provide little support for the argument, but graphical analyses show that although Los Angeles does not differ from the general, US-wide trends, its almost unique nature in terms of its ethnic diversity means that it clearly stands out as a place with a different pattern shared by very few others.     

Seasonal variability in heat-related mortality across the United States

This study examines the seasonal variability in the heat mortality relationship across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the seasonal cycle of the health risk from anomalously high temperatures (relative to the time of season). Mortality data for the 30-year period are standardized to account for population trends and overall seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated. Results show that while the greatest overall health impact is found mid-summer in many locations due to the peak frequency of hot weather occurring at this time, the relative increase in acute mortality on oppressive air mass days is actually just as large in spring as it is in summer, and in some cases is larger. Late summer and autumn vulnerability to anomalously warm or hot days is much less significant than spring days in all areas except along the Pacific coast. Results show significant spatial variability, with the most consistent results across the more ‘traditionally’ heat vulnerable areas of the Midwestern and northeastern US, along with the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the seasonal cycle of the correlation between anomalously high temperatures and human health is more ambiguous.     

Centralized power and divided space: `Fractured regions' in the Israeli `ethnocracy'

This paper uses a critical political-geographical perspective to account for the high centrality of power found in Israel. It suggests that the concentration of power have not been solely caused by national solidarity and integration or by metropolitan development, as commonly explained, but also by the territorial `fracturing' of the main social and ethnic groups in Israel/Palestine. This has prevented the emergence of effective pressure for regional devolution. Israel's character as a settler and settling state, and its central project of Judaizing contested territories, enabled the Israeli `ethnocracy' and its (mainly Ashkenazi and secular) elites to create a political geography of `fractured ethnic and social regions'. Dispersing minorities and legitimizing segregation and inequality, all in the name of the `national interest', achieved this. The Israeli political landscape is therefore organized as `fractured regions', each representing a distinct and interconnected, yet geographically dispersed, set of localities, and resembling a `chain of beads'. The logic of dispersal and segregation, in turn, has also influenced patterns of development and residential separation within Israel's main urban areas. Thus, ethnic and social fragmentation and conflict, and not a putative process of national or metropolitan integration, can explain much of Israel's highly centralized power structure.     

Socio-spatial differentiation and residential segregation in Delhi: a question of scale?

This paper focuses on the pattern of social-spatial differentiation and segmentation of the metropolitan area of Delhi. The main objective is to analyse the mechanisms of residential segregation and the factors that explain it both at the micro- and macro-level. In the context of the Indian society and its caste system traditionally associated with strong social and spatial segregation, we try to appraise the extent to which the metropolitanization process in Delhi engenders original forms of spatial segmentation or perpetuates and strengthens the traditional forms of socio-spatial divisions. At the level of the global spatial organization of the urban agglomeration, our objective is twofold: to analyse the factors that shaped the urban landscape and introduced spatial discontinuity, from physical barriers to the different historic periods and the impact of town planning; to analyse the residential pattern of different segments of the urban population, in order to detect whether certain economic and socio-cultural attributes generate a pattern of segregation. We then pursue a more detailed investigation at the level of a zone, based on the case study of Mayur Vihar-Trilokpuri in east Delhi. We analyse the residential practices developed by different socio-economic groups, their strategies as regards the occupation of the geographical and economic space, their tendency to residential clustering that leads to a pattern of social segregation at the level of the neighbourhood. In this perspective, the links between the urban policies at the macro-level and the individuals’ residential practices at the micro-level are also examined.     

The Salt River Indian Reservation: land use conflicts and aspects of socioeconomic change on the outskirts of Metro-Phoenix, Arizona

Several North American metropolitan areas including Albuquerque, El Paso and Seattle in the U.S., and the Canadian urban areas of Montreal and Vancouver, are characterized by Indian reservations situated either within or on the outskirts of these cities. This type of Indian reservation or reserve within metropolitan areas has been the subject of limited geographical research, and is nowhere as manifest as in Metro-Phoenix. Three reservations obstruct the otherwise unlimited growth of Arizona??s capital. This phenomenon is most striking in the eastern regions of Phoenix where, until the end of the 1980s, the almost exclusively rural, agrarian Salt River Indian Reservation formed a physical and cultural barrier to urban development, preventing metropolitan sprawl beyond a clearly marked boundary. Continued urban pressures have led to changing land uses, effectively hollowing out this embankment or barrier, which has caused a profound change in the reservation. Both the Salt River and Gila River Indian reservations maintain large tracts of irrigated agricultural land, but the transformation that converted farms to suburbs off the reservation is now changing the reservation itself. In fact, this change actually began more than a hundred years ago with the Anglo-American colonization of what is today Arizona??s central region.     

Gated community and residential segregation in urban China

Research on gated community in Chinese cities has been growing very fast, but empirical studies are limited, especially those on the relationship between gated community and residential segregation. A retrospective questionnaire survey was conducted in three gated communities in Chongqing, China. The findings from the survey include that, after moving into the gated communities, many homeowners’ contact with other people decreases. It is also found that homeowners’ participation in local public affairs decreases. These results hold even when we compare with the reference group and control for duration of stay. They support the view that gated community aggravates residential segregation. However, the survey shows that many homeowners feel the income differences among the neighbors increase and the changes of several types of external activities don’t show a consistent pattern. All these empirical findings suggest that a complex relationship between gated community and residential segregation exists in urban China and the removal of work unit from the housing system affects people’s experience in gated community.     

Assessing income-wise household environmental conditions and disease profile in urban areas: Study of an Indian city

The main objectives of the present study are: (i) to assess the income-wise household environmental conditions of the sampled households in Aligarh city, (ii) to examine income-wise disease profile of the population, (iii) to assess the relationship between income and four most occurring diseases, (iv) draw out inter-relationship between income, non-ideal household environmental conditions and environment related diseases. The quality of life and diseases in any urban areas get reflected by the immediate neighborhood in different parts of the city which depends upon the income strata of the households, their way of living, and their understanding of their household environment. This is because it is the household environment, which exerts the most and immediate influence on the life of the people. This study was carried out in order to assess household environmental conditions (i.e. housing conditions, bathroom and sanitation conditions, water supply conditions, water logging conditions, household garbage and solid waste, household pests, indoor air and indoor noise pollution) and their effect on the health of the resident population of Aligarh city. The method includes household survey of Aligarh city using questionnaires. The sampled households were classified into five income groups from very low to very high. Relationship was tested between income and household environmental conditions and also between income and diseases using Chi-Square technique. About 55% of the total sampled households suffer from diarrhea/dysentery, 43% jaundice, 42% malaria and 41% respiratory diseases. About 40% suffer from skin diseases, small pox/chicken pox. All these diseases are a result of poor household environmental conditions. Whereas 35% people reported other diseases (i.e. heart disease, hypertension and diabetes), only 14.42% households reported of tuberculosis. The study concludes that there exists a significant positive relationship between income level and household environmental conditions, and also between income and various diseases among sampled households of Aligarh city.     

U.S. Nationwide trends in metropolitan retail trade: A perspective of the mid 1980s

The 1982 U.S. summary data for retail sales (Census of Retail Trade) are analyzed in light of trends since 1958. The metropolitan economy consists of four sectors, namely CBDs, major retail centres (MRCs), non-CBD/MRC retailing and direct marketing. Total U.S. retail sales declined by some 1.6% during 1977–1982. Metropolitan retail sales increased, however, more than metropolitan population growth. This is related to the construction of outer-ring superregional centres which serve also exurban customers. Within metropolitan areas CBDs continued their absolute and relative decline, while MRCs grew, keeping their share in the metropolitan economy. Non-CBD/MRC retailing is the largest and increasingly growing sector. It represents demographic and economic changes that lead to an increased emphasis on speciality strip and small-town retailing. Direct marketing, while constantly growing, has not yet become a real threat to conventional store retailing.     

Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding

This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential.     

Immigrants and world cities: from the hyper-diverse to the bypassed

A relationship between globalization, cities and immigration is increasingly apparent. Whether one is trying to understand Dubai, Toronto, or London, immigrants are culturally, economically, and spatially changing cities in significant ways. This study compares the roster of world cities with that of major urban immigrant destinations. The number of major urban immigrant destinations is growing due to the acceleration of immigration driven by income differentials, social networks and various state and local policies to recruit skilled and unskilled labor and replenish population. This study will present urban-level data on the foreign-born for 145 metropolitan areas of over 1 million people. It will focus on the world’s 19 metropolitan areas with over 1 million foreign-born residents. Analysis of the data suggests that there is a range of destination types. Although not all world cities are immigrant gateways, many are.     

Ethno-ideological segregation and metropolitan development

The effect of ethnic residential segregation on metropolitan development and expansion is examined. The ethno-ideologically divided city is an extreme case of segregation and Jerusalem, an example of such a city, provides a good case study. Deviations from patterns of population change predicted by the theory of the urban population density gradient are analysed non-statistically using the available data. When the two ethnic sectors are treated as separate cities, these deviations do not seem to be very important and population change conforms to the model. This seen in the light of local patterns of segregation seems to imply that at the local ‘tactical’ level domination and exclusion of the other group seems to result, whereas on the regional strategic level power is shared more equally and economic and demographic factors play the major role in fashioning the distribution of population change.     

Residential mobility in the Seoul metropolitan region, Korea

The spatial pattern of residential mobility in Korea is found to be one of intraregional rather than interregional movement. Net inmigration has taken place only in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR) since 1970. People from the Cholla region have formed the main stream of net inmigration into the SMR. The decentralization of population from Seoul to Kyonggi and Inchon has generated a transformation of the Seoul urban fringe since 1970. This metropolitanization process is accompanied by residential and employment suburbanization to 45kms from the center of Seoul. Residential mobility in the SMR is the result of metropolitan job opportunities, availability of housing, and the effects of the various regional policies. Availability of transportation between Seoul and its urban fringe encouraged the wide expansion of the urban areas and population redistribution within the SMR.     

Areas of the U.S. wildland–urban interface threatened by wildfire during the 2001–2010 decade

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is defined in terms of housing density and proximity to wildlands, yet its relevance seems to be only in conjunction with wildland fire threats. The objective of this paper is to (1) identify the WUI areas threatened from wildfire during the 2000’s and (2) quantify the values that were threatened. We use 1 km fire detection data generated using MODIS satellite imagery over a 10-year period combined with population densities to identify threatened areas of the WUI. We then use data on structures, structure content, and population to identify the people and property threatened from identified fires within the WUI. We find that 6.3 % of the U.S. population (17.5 million) resided within these areas and that 2.1 % of the population lived in WUI areas where more than one fire has occurred. However, we find that only a third of the affected population was threatened during daytime hours, as most leave the threatened portion of the WUI during peak ignition hours. The threatened area comprised 4.1 % of the coterminous USA and 44.9 % of the WUI. Within these areas were 7.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, governmental, religious, and educational structures, with a building and building content value estimated at $1.9 trillion. Overall, 7.3 % of residential structures in the USA were found within the WUI with wildfire activity; however, for some states, this number was as high as 25.4 %.     

Groundwater pumping by heterogeneous users

Farm size is a significant determinant of both groundwater-irrigated farm acreage and groundwater-irrigation-application rates per unit land area. This paper analyzes the patterns of groundwater exploitation when resource users in the area overlying a common aquifer are heterogeneous. In the presence of user heterogeneity, the common resource problem consists of inefficient dynamic and spatial allocation of groundwater because it impacts income distribution not only across periods but also across farmers. Under competitive allocation, smaller farmers pump groundwater faster if farmers have a constant marginal periodic utility of income. However, it is possible that larger farmers pump faster if the Arrow-Pratt coefficient of relative risk-aversion is sufficiently decreasing in income. A greater farm-size inequality may either moderate or amplify income inequality among farmers. Its effect on welfare depends on the curvature properties of the agricultural output function and the farmer utility of income. Also, it is shown that a flat-rate quota policy that limits the quantity of groundwater extraction per unit land area may have unintended consequences for the income distribution among farmers.     

四川德阳地区农田生态系统重金属健康风险评价

环境健康风险评价是定量描述环境中污染物对人体产生健康危害的风险的重要方法。文中结合国内外健康风险评价理论,利用美国环保总署健康风险评价模型,计算了四川德阳地区居民经呼吸(大气颗粒物)、食入(粮食)、饮用(饮用水)和皮肤接触途径摄入重金属而引起的健康风险。研究结果显示:德阳地区所有市县的非致癌风险指数都大于1,表明存在一定的风险。绵竹和旌阳区的风险最高,二者的非致癌风险指数分别达到7.76和4.36。从不同暴露途径的贡献来看,主要是经食物暴露的贡献,各市县都达到了90%以上。虽然计算结果存在一定的不确定性,但对研究区进行风险管理具有重要的参考价值。     

Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004

This study addresses the long-term trends in heat-related mortality across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the spatial patterns and temporal trends in heat vulnerability. Mortality data have been standardized to account for population trends, and seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated, along with the likelihood that oppressive days led to a mortality response at least one standard deviation above the baseline value. Results show a general decline in heat-related mortality from the 1970s to 1990s, after which the decline seems to have abated. The likelihood of oppressive days leading to significant increases in mortality has shown less of a decline. The number of oppressive days has stayed the same or increased at most metropolitan areas. With US homes near saturation in terms of air-conditioning availability, an aging population is still significantly vulnerable to heat events.     

Mixed-race residential areas in South African cities — urban geographical developments in the late and post-apartheid phases

Even before the definite scrapping of the Group Areas Act in July 1991, mixed racial residential areas developed in South African cities. Against the Apartheid laws, this mainly occurred in central areas of the cities, which the white population had left during the process of suburbanization. Thus the moving of non-white, middle-class population groups into these areas became possible (so-called grey areas).The objective of this paper is to present and analyse one example for this development from the Johannesburg area. The following questions are examined by own investigations: the process of immigration and the succession of different groups of immigrants; the demographic and social characteristics of the inhabitants, esp. in comparison to the white population; small-scale concentration of different ethnic groups; conflicts between whites and non-whites; the consequences of the ethnic changes on neighbouring residential areas. The results lead to several hypotheses concerning the future development of South African cities.     

Public policy and residential provision for the elderly

In recent years there has been a growing concern about the best type of residential care for the increasing elderly population in Britain. This paper examines the response of the public, private and voluntary sectors to the provision of residential care. It looks at the relative levels, spatial variations in the levels and changes in the proportions of provision by each of these sectors for the years 1981 and 1984. The levels of provision are related to indices of need, available resources and the political disposition of each local authority area. This paper then focuses on the variations in the growth of the private-sector provision of residential homes. It was found that the metropolitan districts had the greatest proportion of voluntary-sector provision; and the traditional seaside retirement counties such as Devon and Lancashire had the highest levels of and experienced the greatest growth in private residential care. The key variables in explaining variations in the mix of provision between areas were indices of need and resources. This study has established that there are great regional variations in the mix of the different sectors of residential care, although it is not possible to offer a total explanation of these differentials. In Britain, there are substantial inequalities in terms of the choice of types of provision for the elderly population which have significant implications for local authority policy.     

Scaling ethnic segregation: causal processes and contingent outcomes in Chinese residential patterns

This paper advances a contingent perspective of residential segregation that recognizes it as a universal phenomenon of residential differentiation, yet one that results from different causal processes and which results in different spatial outcomes. The analytical separation of groups, contexts and scale is key to understanding the nature of segregation, i.e., what it signifies to the group and to the host society. We argue that segregation is created and maintained by different choices and constraints occurring across dimensions of production, reproduction and consumption. Spatial outcomes vary considerably, and may be arrayed in regard to the permanence of segregation, whether it facilitates identity maintenance, and whether segregation itself empowers or marginalizes the ethnic population. To demonstrate our approach, we analyze the segregation experiences of Chinese ethnics. Our argument is organized around the global, national and local scales at which causal processes shape the Chinese experience of segregation.